# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Metz vs Lille at 09 April 2021**** Montpellier vs Marseille at 10 April 2021**** Strasbourg vs Paris SG at 10 April 2021**** Brest vs Nimes at 11 April 2021**** Lens vs Lorient at 11 April 2021**** Lyon vs Angers at 11 April 2021**** Nice vs Reims at 11 April 2021**** Rennes vs Nantes at 11 April 2021**** St Etienne vs Bordeaux at 11 April 2021**** Monaco vs Dijon at 11 April 2021**

###
Metz vs Lille at 09 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Metz** and **Lille** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **09 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Metz |
5.95 |
2.88 |
17.9 |

Draw |
3.57 |
3.44 |
1.1 |

Lille |
1.69 |
2.76 |
-22.9 |

Over 2.5 |
2.47 |
2.56 |
-1.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.57 |
1.64 |
-2.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Metz, Draw (17.9 %, 1.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Metz** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Metz scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Metz** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Metz scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Metz’s performance** at home**.

Metz,** at home**, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 42.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Metz scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Metz was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Apr |
Monaco |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

20 Mar |
Rennes |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Mar |
Lens |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

03 Mar |
Angers |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Bordeaux |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Feb |
Nice |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

14 Feb |
Strasbourg |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Feb |
St Etienne |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Lille** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Lille scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Lille** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Lille scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lille’s performance** as a guest**.

Lille,** as a guest**, had 10 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 34 points, 75.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Lille scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Lille was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Apr |
Paris SG |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Mar |
Nimes |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Mar |
Monaco |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

03 Mar |
Marseille |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Feb |
Strasbourg |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Feb |
Lorient |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

14 Feb |
Brest |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

07 Feb |
Nantes |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Metz** is **-0.259** and for the **Lille** is **0.311.**

The home dynamic for the **Metz** is **0.091** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Lille** is **0.739.**

The offensive ability for the **Metz** is **0.167** and for the **Lille** is **0.591.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Metz** is **-1** and for the **Lille** is **0.059.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Metz** and the red line for guest team, **Lille. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Metz |
32% |
40% |
19% |
9% |

Lille |
35% |
35% |
10% |
19% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Metz** to score **0.63 ** goals and **Lille** to score **1.49 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.12** goals in the game and the guest team **Lille ** to win by **0.86** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Metz** to score **1.05 ** goals and **Lille** to score **1.13 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.18** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.08** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
8.70 |
0-1 |
2.71 |

1 |
3.94 |
2-3 |
2.26 |

2 |
4.15 |
4+ |
5.32 |

3 |
4.95 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.58 |

4 |
7.94 |
Un 1.5 |
2.71 |

5 |
22.22 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.56 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.64 |

Gg |
2.29 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.32 |

NoG |
1.78 |
Un 3.5 |
1.23 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.64 |
3.21 |
3.24 |

2-3 goals |
2.65 |
3.19 |
3.23 |

4+ goals |
4.70 |
5.08 |
1.69 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.05 |
3.59 |
2.54 |

Un 1.5 |
2.64 |
3.21 |
3.24 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.81 |
10.54 |
1.82 |

Un 2.5 |
2.93 |
2.40 |
4.12 |

Ov 3.5 |
4.70 |
5.08 |
1.69 |

Un 3.5 |
2.64 |
3.20 |
3.24 |

Goal-Goal |
4.05 |
2.48 |
2.86 |

No Goal |
2.36 |
4.90 |
2.69 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.76 |
8.05 |
1.95 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.26 |
4.90 |
3.18 |

####
Go to Top

###
Montpellier vs Marseille at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Montpellier** and **Marseille** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **10 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Montpellier |
2.63 |
2.28 |
5.8 |

Draw |
3.35 |
3.76 |
-3.3 |

Marseille |
2.71 |
3.38 |
-7.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.00 |
2.29 |
-6.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.84 |
1.77 |
2.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Montpellier, Under 2.5 (5.8 %, 2.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Montpellier** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Montpellier scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Montpellier** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Montpellier** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Montpellier’s performance** at home**.

Montpellier,** at home**, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 47.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Montpellier scored in 13 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 13 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Montpellier was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

04 Apr |
Angers |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Mar |
Bordeaux |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

14 Mar |
Nimes |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Mar |
Lorient |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Feb |
Reims |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Feb |
Rennes |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Lyon |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Feb |
Dijon |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

**Marseille** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Marseille scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Marseille** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Marseille scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Marseille’s performance** as a guest**.

Marseille,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Marseille scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Marseille was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

04 Apr |
Dijon |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Nice |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

13 Mar |
Brest |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

10 Mar |
Rennes |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Mar |
Lille |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

28 Feb |
Lyon |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Feb |
Nantes |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Feb |
Nice |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Montpellier** is **0.319** and for the **Marseille** is **0.2.**

The home dynamic for the **Montpellier** is **-0.418** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Marseille** is **0.159.**

The offensive ability for the **Montpellier** is **0.657** and for the **Marseille** is **0.217.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Montpellier** is **-0.648** and for the **Marseille** is **-0.281.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Montpellier** and the red line for guest team, **Marseille. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Montpellier |
28% |
28% |
34% |
11% |

Marseille |
36% |
36% |
16% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Montpellier** to score **1.24 ** goals and **Marseille** to score **1.22 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.46** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.02** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Montpellier** to score **1.28 ** goals and **Marseille** to score **1.04 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.32** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.24** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.00 |
0-1 |
3.34 |

1 |
5.03 |
2-3 |
1.98 |

2 |
3.77 |
4+ |
5.08 |

3 |
4.18 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.43 |

4 |
7.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.34 |

5 |
17.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.29 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.77 |

Gg |
2.16 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.08 |

NoG |
1.86 |
Un 3.5 |
1.25 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.02 |
2.99 |
2.99 |

2-3 goals |
1.78 |
5.09 |
4.13 |

4+ goals |
3.52 |
2.94 |
2.66 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.07 |
4.22 |
3.58 |

Un 1.5 |
3.02 |
2.99 |
2.99 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |
6.51 |
2.87 |

Un 2.5 |
2.55 |
2.83 |
3.92 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.52 |
2.94 |
2.66 |

Un 3.5 |
2.10 |
4.04 |
3.62 |

Goal-Goal |
2.60 |
2.78 |
3.92 |

No Goal |
2.07 |
5.38 |
3.02 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.04 |
5.42 |
3.08 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.10 |
5.38 |
3.23 |

####
Go to Top

###
Strasbourg vs Paris SG at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Strasbourg** and **Paris SG** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **10 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Strasbourg |
4.33 |
2.92 |
11.2 |

Draw |
3.98 |
3.45 |
3.9 |

Paris SG |
1.77 |
2.72 |
-19.7 |

Over 2.5 |
1.75 |
2.54 |
-17.8 |

Under 2.5 |
2.13 |
1.65 |
13.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Strasbourg, Draw, Under 2.5 (11.2 %, 3.9 %, 13.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Strasbourg** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Strasbourg scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Strasbourg** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Strasbourg scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Strasbourg’s performance** at home**.

Strasbourg,** at home**, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 35.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Strasbourg scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Strasbourg was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

04 Apr |
Bordeaux |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Mar |
Lens |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Mar |
Rennes |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Mar |
Monaco |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Feb |
Lille |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Feb |
Angers |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Metz |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Lyon |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

**Paris SG** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Paris SG scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Paris SG** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Paris SG scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Paris SG’s performance** as a guest**.

Paris SG,** as a guest**, had 10 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 32 points, 71.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Paris SG scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Paris SG was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Apr |
Lille |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Mar |
Lyon |
A |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

14 Mar |
Nantes |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Mar |
Bordeaux |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Dijon |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

21 Feb |
Monaco |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Nice |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Feb |
Marseille |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Strasbourg** is **0** and for the **Paris SG** is **-0.015.**

The home dynamic for the **Strasbourg** is **-0.364** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Paris SG** is **0.353.**

The offensive ability for the **Strasbourg** is **0.288** and for the **Paris SG** is **0.217.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Strasbourg** is **-0.295** and for the **Paris SG** is **-0.385.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Strasbourg** and the red line for guest team, **Paris SG. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Strasbourg |
33% |
39% |
19% |
9% |

Paris SG |
35% |
35% |
9% |
20% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Strasbourg** to score **0.93 ** goals and **Paris SG** to score **1.81 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.74** goals in the game and the guest team **Paris SG ** to win by **0.88** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Strasbourg** to score **1.03 ** goals and **Paris SG** to score **1.14 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.17** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.11** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
8.47 |
0-1 |
2.68 |

1 |
3.92 |
2-3 |
2.30 |

2 |
4.29 |
4+ |
5.15 |

3 |
4.98 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.59 |

4 |
7.75 |
Un 1.5 |
2.68 |

5 |
21.28 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.53 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.65 |

Gg |
2.31 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.15 |

NoG |
1.76 |
Un 3.5 |
1.24 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.70 |
3.16 |
3.19 |

2-3 goals |
2.61 |
3.17 |
3.31 |

4+ goals |
4.85 |
5.54 |
1.63 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.05 |
3.65 |
2.51 |

Un 1.5 |
2.70 |
3.16 |
3.19 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.84 |
11.29 |
1.79 |

Un 2.5 |
2.96 |
2.38 |
4.15 |

Ov 3.5 |
4.85 |
5.54 |
1.63 |

Un 3.5 |
2.65 |
3.16 |
3.25 |

Goal-Goal |
4.04 |
2.51 |
2.82 |

No Goal |
2.40 |
4.82 |
2.66 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.76 |
8.43 |
1.93 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.29 |
4.82 |
3.21 |

####
Go to Top

###
Brest vs Nimes at 11 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Brest** and **Nimes** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **11 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Brest |
2.03 |
1.80 |
6.3 |

Draw |
3.63 |
4.00 |
-2.5 |

Nimes |
3.58 |
5.13 |
-8.4 |

Over 2.5 |
1.84 |
2.49 |
-14.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.99 |
1.67 |
9.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Brest, Under 2.5 (6.3 %, 9.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Brest** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Brest scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Brest** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Brest scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brest’s performance** at home**.

Brest,** at home**, had 8 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 57.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Brest scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Brest was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

04 Apr |
Lorient |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Mar |
Angers |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Marseille |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Mar |
Dijon |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Feb |
Monaco |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Feb |
Lyon |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Feb |
Lille |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

07 Feb |
Bordeaux |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Nimes** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Nimes scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Nimes** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Nimes scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nimes’s performance** as a guest**.

Nimes,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 37.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Nimes scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Nimes was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

04 Apr |
St Etienne |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Mar |
Lille |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

14 Mar |
Montpellier |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Mar |
Nice |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Feb |
Nantes |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Feb |
Lorient |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Feb |
Bordeaux |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Dijon |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Brest** is **-0.496** and for the **Nimes** is **-0.037.**

The home dynamic for the **Brest** is **0.036** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Nimes** is **-0.246.**

The offensive ability for the **Brest** is **-0.227** and for the **Nimes** is **0.539.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Brest** is **-0.559** and for the **Nimes** is **-0.726.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Brest** and the red line for guest team, **Nimes. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Brest |
23% |
26% |
34% |
16% |

Nimes |
52% |
28% |
13% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Brest** to score **1.58 ** goals and **Nimes** to score **1.04 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.62** goals in the game and the home team **Brest ** to win by **0.54** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Brest** to score **1.43 ** goals and **Nimes** to score **0.77 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.2** goals in the game and the home team **Brest ** to win by **0.66** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
8.26 |
0-1 |
3.11 |

1 |
4.98 |
2-3 |
1.96 |

2 |
3.58 |
4+ |
5.88 |

3 |
4.35 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.47 |

4 |
9.17 |
Un 1.5 |
3.11 |

5 |
20.83 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.50 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.66 |

Gg |
2.70 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.88 |

NoG |
1.58 |
Un 3.5 |
1.20 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |