2021 04 09 Ligue One (France)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Metz vs Lille at 09 April 2021
Montpellier vs Marseille at 10 April 2021
Strasbourg vs Paris SG at 10 April 2021
Brest vs Nimes at 11 April 2021
Lens vs Lorient at 11 April 2021
Lyon vs Angers at 11 April 2021
Nice vs Reims at 11 April 2021
Rennes vs Nantes at 11 April 2021
St Etienne vs Bordeaux at 11 April 2021
Monaco vs Dijon at 11 April 2021


Metz vs Lille at 09 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Metz and Lille for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 09 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Metz

5.95

2.88

17.9

Draw

3.57

3.44

1.1

Lille

1.69

2.76

-22.9

Over 2.5

2.47

2.56

-1.4

Under 2.5

1.57

1.64

-2.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Metz, Draw (17.9 %, 1.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Metz in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Metz scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Metz in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Metz scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Metz’s performance at home.
Metz, at home, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 42.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Metz scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Metz was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Apr

Monaco

A

0

4

L

O

N

20 Mar

Rennes

H

1

3

L

O

G

14 Mar

Lens

A

2

2

D

O

G

03 Mar

Angers

H

0

1

L

U

N

27 Feb

Bordeaux

A

2

1

W

O

G

21 Feb

Nice

A

2

1

W

O

G

14 Feb

Strasbourg

H

1

2

L

O

G

07 Feb

St Etienne

A

0

1

L

U

N


Lille in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Lille scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lille in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Lille scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lille’s performance as a guest.
Lille, as a guest, had 10 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 34 points, 75.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Lille scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lille was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Apr

Paris SG

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Mar

Nimes

H

1

2

L

O

G

14 Mar

Monaco

A

0

0

D

U

N

03 Mar

Marseille

H

2

0

W

U

N

28 Feb

Strasbourg

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Feb

Lorient

A

4

1

W

O

G

14 Feb

Brest

H

0

0

D

U

N

07 Feb

Nantes

A

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Metz is -0.259 and for the Lille is 0.311.
The home dynamic for the Metz is 0.091 and the dynamic as a guest for the Lille is 0.739.
The offensive ability for the Metz is 0.167 and for the Lille is 0.591.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Metz is -1 and for the Lille is 0.059.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Metz and the red line for guest team, Lille.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Metz

32%

40%

19%

9%

Lille

35%

35%

10%

19%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Metz to score 0.63 goals and Lille to score 1.49 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.12 goals in the game and the guest team Lille to win by 0.86 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Metz to score 1.05 goals and Lille to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.18 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.08 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.70

0-1

2.71

1

3.94

2-3

2.26

2

4.15

4+

5.32

3

4.95

Ov 1.5

1.58

4

7.94

Un 1.5

2.71

5

22.22

Ov 2.5

2.56

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.64

Gg

2.29

Ov 3.5

5.32

NoG

1.78

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.64

3.21

3.24

2-3 goals

2.65

3.19

3.23

4+ goals

4.70

5.08

1.69

Ov 1.5

3.05

3.59

2.54

Un 1.5

2.64

3.21

3.24

Ov 2.5

2.81

10.54

1.82

Un 2.5

2.93

2.40

4.12

Ov 3.5

4.70

5.08

1.69

Un 3.5

2.64

3.20

3.24

Goal-Goal

4.05

2.48

2.86

No Goal

2.36

4.90

2.69

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.76

8.05

1.95

NG+Un 2.5

2.26

4.90

3.18


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Montpellier vs Marseille at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Montpellier and Marseille for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 10 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Montpellier

2.63

2.28

5.8

Draw

3.35

3.76

-3.3

Marseille

2.71

3.38

-7.3

Over 2.5

2.00

2.29

-6.3

Under 2.5

1.84

1.77

2.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Montpellier, Under 2.5 (5.8 %, 2.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Montpellier in the last six matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Montpellier scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Montpellier in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Montpellier scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Montpellier’s performance at home.
Montpellier, at home, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 47.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Montpellier scored in 13 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 13 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Montpellier was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

04 Apr

Angers

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Mar

Bordeaux

H

3

1

W

O

G

14 Mar

Nimes

A

1

1

D

U

G

03 Mar

Lorient

H

1

1

D

U

G

28 Feb

Reims

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Feb

Rennes

H

2

1

W

O

G

13 Feb

Lyon

A

2

1

W

O

G

07 Feb

Dijon

H

4

2

W

O

G


Marseille in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Marseille scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Marseille in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Marseille scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Marseille’s performance as a guest.
Marseille, as a guest, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Marseille scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Marseille was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

04 Apr

Dijon

H

2

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Nice

A

0

3

L

O

N

13 Mar

Brest

H

3

1

W

O

G

10 Mar

Rennes

H

1

0

W

U

N

03 Mar

Lille

A

0

2

L

U

N

28 Feb

Lyon

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Nantes

A

1

1

D

U

G

17 Feb

Nice

H

3

2

W

O

G


The form score for the Montpellier is 0.319 and for the Marseille is 0.2.
The home dynamic for the Montpellier is -0.418 and the dynamic as a guest for the Marseille is 0.159.
The offensive ability for the Montpellier is 0.657 and for the Marseille is 0.217.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Montpellier is -0.648 and for the Marseille is -0.281.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Montpellier and the red line for guest team, Marseille.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Montpellier

28%

28%

34%

11%

Marseille

36%

36%

16%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Montpellier to score 1.24 goals and Marseille to score 1.22 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.02 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Montpellier to score 1.28 goals and Marseille to score 1.04 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.24 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.00

0-1

3.34

1

5.03

2-3

1.98

2

3.77

4+

5.08

3

4.18

Ov 1.5

1.43

4

7.94

Un 1.5

3.34

5

17.24

Ov 2.5

2.29

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.77

Gg

2.16

Ov 3.5

5.08

NoG

1.86

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.02

2.99

2.99

2-3 goals

1.78

5.09

4.13

4+ goals

3.52

2.94

2.66

Ov 1.5

2.07

4.22

3.58

Un 1.5

3.02

2.99

2.99

Ov 2.5

2.01

6.51

2.87

Un 2.5

2.55

2.83

3.92

Ov 3.5

3.52

2.94

2.66

Un 3.5

2.10

4.04

3.62

Goal-Goal

2.60

2.78

3.92

No Goal

2.07

5.38

3.02

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.04

5.42

3.08

NG+Un 2.5

2.10

5.38

3.23


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Strasbourg vs Paris SG at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Strasbourg and Paris SG for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 10 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Strasbourg

4.33

2.92

11.2

Draw

3.98

3.45

3.9

Paris SG

1.77

2.72

-19.7

Over 2.5

1.75

2.54

-17.8

Under 2.5

2.13

1.65

13.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Strasbourg, Draw, Under 2.5 (11.2 %, 3.9 %, 13.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Strasbourg in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Strasbourg scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Strasbourg in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Strasbourg scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Strasbourg’s performance at home.
Strasbourg, at home, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 35.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Strasbourg scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Strasbourg was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

04 Apr

Bordeaux

A

3

2

W

O

G

21 Mar

Lens

H

1

2

L

O

G

14 Mar

Rennes

A

0

1

L

U

N

03 Mar

Monaco

H

1

0

W

U

N

28 Feb

Lille

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Feb

Angers

H

0

0

D

U

N

14 Feb

Metz

A

2

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

Lyon

A

0

3

L

O

N


Paris SG in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Paris SG scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Paris SG in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Paris SG scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Paris SG’s performance as a guest.
Paris SG, as a guest, had 10 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 32 points, 71.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Paris SG scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Paris SG was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Apr

Lille

H

0

1

L

U

N

21 Mar

Lyon

A

4

2

W

O

G

14 Mar

Nantes

H

1

2

L

O

G

03 Mar

Bordeaux

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Dijon

A

4

0

W

O

N

21 Feb

Monaco

H

0

2

L

U

N

13 Feb

Nice

H

2

1

W

O

G

07 Feb

Marseille

A

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Strasbourg is 0 and for the Paris SG is -0.015.
The home dynamic for the Strasbourg is -0.364 and the dynamic as a guest for the Paris SG is 0.353.
The offensive ability for the Strasbourg is 0.288 and for the Paris SG is 0.217.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Strasbourg is -0.295 and for the Paris SG is -0.385.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Strasbourg and the red line for guest team, Paris SG.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Strasbourg

33%

39%

19%

9%

Paris SG

35%

35%

9%

20%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Strasbourg to score 0.93 goals and Paris SG to score 1.81 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.74 goals in the game and the guest team Paris SG to win by 0.88 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Strasbourg to score 1.03 goals and Paris SG to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.17 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.11 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.47

0-1

2.68

1

3.92

2-3

2.30

2

4.29

4+

5.15

3

4.98

Ov 1.5

1.59

4

7.75

Un 1.5

2.68

5

21.28

Ov 2.5

2.53

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.65

Gg

2.31

Ov 3.5

5.15

NoG

1.76

Un 3.5

1.24

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.70

3.16

3.19

2-3 goals

2.61

3.17

3.31

4+ goals

4.85

5.54

1.63

Ov 1.5

3.05

3.65

2.51

Un 1.5

2.70

3.16

3.19

Ov 2.5

2.84

11.29

1.79

Un 2.5

2.96

2.38

4.15

Ov 3.5

4.85

5.54

1.63

Un 3.5

2.65

3.16

3.25

Goal-Goal

4.04

2.51

2.82

No Goal

2.40

4.82

2.66

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.76

8.43

1.93

NG+Un 2.5

2.29

4.82

3.21


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Brest vs Nimes at 11 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Brest and Nimes for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 11 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Brest

2.03

1.80

6.3

Draw

3.63

4.00

-2.5

Nimes

3.58

5.13

-8.4

Over 2.5

1.84

2.49

-14.2

Under 2.5

1.99

1.67

9.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Brest, Under 2.5 (6.3 %, 9.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Brest in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Brest scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Brest in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Brest scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brest’s performance at home.
Brest, at home, had 8 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 57.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Brest scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Brest was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

04 Apr

Lorient

A

0

1

L

U

N

21 Mar

Angers

H

0

0

D

U

N

13 Mar

Marseille

A

1

3

L

O

G

03 Mar

Dijon

H

3

1

W

O

G

28 Feb

Monaco

A

0

2

L

U

N

19 Feb

Lyon

H

2

3

L

O

G

14 Feb

Lille

A

0

0

D

U

N

07 Feb

Bordeaux

H

2

1

W

O

G


Nimes in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Nimes scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nimes in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Nimes scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nimes’s performance as a guest.
Nimes, as a guest, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 37.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Nimes scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nimes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

04 Apr

St Etienne

H

0

2

L

U

N

21 Mar

Lille

A

2

1

W

O

G

14 Mar

Montpellier

H

1

1

D

U

G

03 Mar

Nice

A

1

2

L

O

G

28 Feb

Nantes

H

1

1

D

U

G

24 Feb

Lorient

H

1

0

W

U

N

21 Feb

Bordeaux

H

2

0

W

U

N

14 Feb

Dijon

A

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Brest is -0.496 and for the Nimes is -0.037.
The home dynamic for the Brest is 0.036 and the dynamic as a guest for the Nimes is -0.246.
The offensive ability for the Brest is -0.227 and for the Nimes is 0.539.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Brest is -0.559 and for the Nimes is -0.726.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Brest and the red line for guest team, Nimes.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Brest

23%

26%

34%

16%

Nimes

52%

28%

13%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Brest to score 1.58 goals and Nimes to score 1.04 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.62 goals in the game and the home team Brest to win by 0.54 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Brest to score 1.43 goals and Nimes to score 0.77 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.2 goals in the game and the home team Brest to win by 0.66 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.26

0-1

3.11

1

4.98

2-3

1.96

2

3.58

4+

5.88

3

4.35

Ov 1.5

1.47

4

9.17

Un 1.5

3.11

5

20.83

Ov 2.5

2.50

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.66

Gg

2.70

Ov 3.5

5.88

NoG

1.58

Un 3.5

1.20

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals