# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Fulham vs Wolves at 09 April 2021**** Man City vs Leeds at 10 April 2021**** Crystal Palace vs Chelsea at 10 April 2021**** Liverpool vs Aston Villa at 10 April 2021**** West Ham vs Leicester at 11 April 2021**** Tottenham vs Man United at 11 April 2021**** Sheffield United vs Arsenal at 11 April 2021**** Burnley vs Newcastle at 11 April 2021**** West Brom vs Southampton at 12 April 2021**** Brighton vs Everton at 12 April 2021**

###
Fulham vs Wolves at 09 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Fulham** and **Wolves** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **09 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Fulham |
2.61 |
2.63 |
-0.3 |

Draw |
3.10 |
3.79 |
-5.9 |

Wolves |
3.13 |
2.81 |
3.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.60 |
2.02 |
11.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.54 |
1.98 |
-14.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Wolves, Over 2.5 (3.6 %, 11 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Fulham** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Fulham scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Fulham** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Fulham scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Fulham’s performance** at home**.

Fulham,** at home**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 20.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Fulham scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Fulham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

04 Apr |
Aston Villa |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Mar |
Leeds |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Man City |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

07 Mar |
Liverpool |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

04 Mar |
Tottenham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

28 Feb |
Crystal Palace |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Sheffield United |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Feb |
Burnley |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Wolves** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolves scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Wolves** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolves scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wolves’s performance** as a guest**.

Wolves,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 35.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolves scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Wolves was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Apr |
West Ham |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Mar |
Liverpool |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Aston Villa |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Man City |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Newcastle |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Feb |
Leeds |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Southampton |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Feb |
Leicester |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Fulham** is **-0.541** and for the **Wolves** is **-0.407.**

The home dynamic for the **Fulham** is **-0.673** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Wolves** is **-0.304.**

The offensive ability for the **Fulham** is **-0.056** and for the **Wolves** is **0.157.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Fulham** is **-0.295** and for the **Wolves** is **-0.385.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Fulham** and the red line for guest team, **Wolves. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Fulham |
28% |
28% |
34% |
10% |

Wolves |
28% |
34% |
22% |
16% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Fulham** to score **1.1 ** goals and **Wolves** to score **0.97 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.06** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.13** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Fulham** to score **1.27 ** goals and **Wolves** to score **1.25 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.52** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.02** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
3.97 |

1 |
5.78 |
2-3 |
1.99 |

2 |
3.97 |
4+ |
4.08 |

3 |
4.00 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.58 |
Un 1.5 |
3.97 |

5 |
12.99 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.98 |

Gg |
1.93 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.08 |

NoG |
2.07 |
Un 3.5 |
1.33 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.19 |
3.19 |
2.68 |

2-3 goals |
2.06 |
5.28 |
3.08 |

4+ goals |
4.38 |
2.72 |
2.47 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.49 |
4.04 |
2.85 |

Un 1.5 |
3.19 |
3.19 |
2.68 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.45 |
5.50 |
2.44 |

Un 2.5 |
2.85 |
2.90 |
3.29 |

Ov 3.5 |
4.38 |
2.72 |
2.47 |

Un 3.5 |
2.33 |
4.33 |
2.93 |

Goal-Goal |
2.99 |
2.79 |
3.25 |

No Goal |
2.34 |
6.10 |
2.45 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.44 |
4.69 |
2.65 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.31 |
6.10 |
2.67 |

####
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###
Man City vs Leeds at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Man City** and **Leeds** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **10 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Man City |
1.30 |
1.72 |
-18.8 |

Draw |
5.96 |
4.08 |
7.7 |

Leeds |
9.73 |
5.75 |
7.1 |

Over 2.5 |
1.47 |
2.03 |
-18.8 |

Under 2.5 |
2.67 |
1.97 |
13.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Leeds, Under 2.5 (7.7 %, 7.1 %, 13.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Man City** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Man City scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Man City** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Man City** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Man City’s performance** at home**.

Man City,** at home**, had 12 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 38 points, 79.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Man City scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Man City was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Apr |
Leicester |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Fulham |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

10 Mar |
Southampton |
H |
5 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Mar |
Man United |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Wolves |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
West Ham |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Feb |
Arsenal |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Feb |
Everton |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Leeds** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Leeds scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Leeds** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Leeds scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leeds’s performance** as a guest**.

Leeds,** as a guest**, had 7 wins, no draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 46.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Leeds scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Leeds was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Apr |
Sheffield United |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Mar |
Fulham |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Chelsea |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

08 Mar |
West Ham |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Aston Villa |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Feb |
Southampton |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

19 Feb |
Wolves |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Arsenal |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Man City** is **0.681** and for the **Leeds** is **0.207.**

The home dynamic for the **Man City** is **0.591** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Leeds** is **0.217.**

The offensive ability for the **Man City** is **0.631** and for the **Leeds** is **-0.13.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Man City** is **-0.093** and for the **Leeds** is **-0.385.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Man City** and the red line for guest team, **Leeds. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Man City |
14% |
39% |
15% |
32% |

Leeds |
43% |
36% |
15% |
6% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Man City** to score **2.64 ** goals and **Leeds** to score **0.58 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.22** goals in the game and the home team **Man City ** to win by **2.06** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Man City** to score **1.64 ** goals and **Leeds** to score **0.85 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.49** goals in the game and the home team **Man City ** to win by **0.79** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
16.39 |
0-1 |
3.55 |

1 |
4.52 |
2-3 |
2.07 |

2 |
4.42 |
4+ |
4.22 |

3 |
3.89 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
6.21 |
Un 1.5 |
3.55 |

5 |
17.86 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.97 |

Gg |
2.03 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.22 |

NoG |
1.96 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.67 |
4.62 |
5.42 |

2-3 goals |
1.92 |
3.38 |
5.43 |

4+ goals |
1.46 |
5.64 |
7.18 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.74 |
3.89 |
5.90 |

Un 1.5 |
1.67 |
4.62 |
5.42 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.41 |
11.76 |
4.89 |

Un 2.5 |
2.20 |
2.49 |
6.96 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.46 |
5.64 |
7.18 |

Un 3.5 |
1.82 |
3.75 |
5.43 |

Goal-Goal |
2.29 |
2.66 |
5.35 |

No Goal |
1.39 |
8.36 |
6.22 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.62 |
8.31 |
3.79 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.58 |
8.36 |
5.00 |

####
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###
Crystal Palace vs Chelsea at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Crystal Palace** and **Chelsea** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **10 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Crystal Palace |
7.00 |
3.17 |
17.3 |

Draw |
3.95 |
3.91 |
0.3 |

Chelsea |
1.54 |
2.33 |
-22.0 |

Over 2.5 |
2.07 |
1.93 |
3.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.78 |
2.07 |
-7.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Crystal Palace, Draw, Over 2.5 (17.3 %, 0.3 %, 3.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Crystal Palace** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Crystal Palace** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Crystal Palace** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crystal Palace’s performance** at home**.

Crystal Palace,** at home**, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Crystal Palace was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Apr |
Everton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Mar |
West Brom |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Mar |
Tottenham |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Mar |
Man United |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

28 Feb |
Fulham |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

22 Feb |
Brighton |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Burnley |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

08 Feb |
Leeds |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Chelsea** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Chelsea scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Chelsea** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Chelsea scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Chelsea’s performance** as a guest**.

Chelsea,** as a guest**, had 7 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Chelsea scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Chelsea was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Apr |
West Brom |
H |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Leeds |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

08 Mar |
Everton |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

04 Mar |
Liverpool |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Feb |
Man United |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Southampton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

15 Feb |
Newcastle |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Feb |
Sheffield United |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Crystal Palace** is **0.148** and for the **Chelsea** is **0.133.**

The home dynamic for the **Crystal Palace** is **-0.109** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Chelsea** is **0.13.**

The offensive ability for the **Crystal Palace** is **0.288** and for the **Chelsea** is **0.217.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Crystal Palace** is **0.172** and for the **Chelsea** is **0.333.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Crystal Palace** and the red line for guest team, **Chelsea. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Crystal Palace |
33% |
24% |
35% |
8% |

Chelsea |
24% |
32% |
24% |
20% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Crystal Palace** to score **0.62 ** goals and **Chelsea** to score **1.78 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.39** goals in the game and the guest team **Chelsea ** to win by **1.16** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Crystal Palace** to score **1.17 ** goals and **Chelsea** to score **1.41 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.58** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.24** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
4.13 |

1 |
6.10 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
4.17 |
4+ |
3.80 |

3 |
3.92 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |

4 |
6.33 |
Un 1.5 |
4.13 |

5 |
11.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.93 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
2.07 |

Gg |
1.96 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.80 |

NoG |
2.04 |
Un 3.5 |
1.36 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
4.17 |
3.10 |
2.28 |

2-3 goals |
2.32 |
6.35 |
2.43 |

4+ goals |
6.12 |
2.63 |
2.19 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.96 |
4.26 |
2.34 |

Un 1.5 |
4.17 |
3.10 |
2.28 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.99 |
5.18 |
2.11 |

Un 2.5 |
3.42 |
3.09 |
2.61 |

Ov 3.5 |
6.12 |
2.63 |
2.19 |

Un 3.5 |
2.72 |
4.72 |
2.38 |

Goal-Goal |
3.30 |
2.87 |
2.87 |

No Goal |
3.08 |
6.27 |
1.94 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.79 |
4.33 |
2.43 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.87 |
6.27 |
2.18 |

####
Go to Top

###
Liverpool vs Aston Villa at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Liverpool** and **Aston Villa** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **10 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Liverpool |
1.55 |
2.88 |
-29.8 |

Draw |
4.40 |
3.91 |
2.8 |

Aston Villa |
6.02 |
2.53 |
22.9 |

Over 2.5 |
1.64 |
1.91 |
-8.6 |

Under 2.5 |
2.31 |
2.10 |
4.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Aston Villa, Under 2.5 (2.8 %, 22.9 %, 4.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Liverpool** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Liverpool scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

More recently, **Liverpool** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Liverpool scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Liverpool’s performance** at home**.

Liverpool,** at home**, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 51.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Liverpool scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Liverpool was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Apr |
Arsenal |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

15 Mar |
Wolves |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Mar |
Fulham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

04 Mar |
Chelsea |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

28 Feb |
Sheffield United |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Everton |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Leicester |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Feb |
Man City |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

**Aston Villa** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Aston Villa** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Aston Villa’s performance** as a guest**.

Aston Villa,** as a guest**, had 7 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 53.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Aston Villa was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

04 Apr |
Fulham |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Mar |
Tottenham |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Mar |
Newcastle |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Mar |
Wolves |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

03 Mar |
Sheffield United |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Leeds |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Feb |
Leicester |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Brighton |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Liverpool** is **0.059** and for the **Aston Villa** is **0.**

The home dynamic for the **Liverpool** is **0.227** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Aston Villa** is **0.179.**

The offensive ability for the **Liverpool** is **-0.09** and for the **Aston Villa** is **-0.157.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Liverpool** is **0.26** and for the **Aston Villa** is **-0.407.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Liverpool** and the red line for guest team, **Aston Villa. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Liverpool |
31% |
24% |
32% |
12% |

Aston Villa |
25% |
33% |
23% |
19% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Liverpool** to score **2.12 ** goals and **Aston Villa** to score **0.78 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.91** goals in the game and the home team **Liverpool ** to win by **1.34** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Liverpool** to score **1.25 ** goals and **Aston Villa** to score **1.35 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.6** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.1** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
4.13 |

1 |
6.13 |
2-3 |
2.06 |

2 |
4.27 |
4+ |
3.68 |

3 |
3.98 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |

4 |
6.25 |
Un 1.5 |
4.13 |

5 |
11.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.91 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.10 |

Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.68 |

NoG |