2021 04 09 Premier League (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Fulham vs Wolves at 09 April 2021
Man City vs Leeds at 10 April 2021
Crystal Palace vs Chelsea at 10 April 2021
Liverpool vs Aston Villa at 10 April 2021
West Ham vs Leicester at 11 April 2021
Tottenham vs Man United at 11 April 2021
Sheffield United vs Arsenal at 11 April 2021
Burnley vs Newcastle at 11 April 2021
West Brom vs Southampton at 12 April 2021
Brighton vs Everton at 12 April 2021


Fulham vs Wolves at 09 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Fulham and Wolves for Premier League (England), which will take place on 09 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Fulham

2.61

2.63

-0.3

Draw

3.10

3.79

-5.9

Wolves

3.13

2.81

3.6

Over 2.5

2.60

2.02

11.0

Under 2.5

1.54

1.98

-14.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Wolves, Over 2.5 (3.6 %, 11 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Fulham in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Fulham scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Fulham in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Fulham scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Fulham’s performance at home.
Fulham, at home, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 20.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Fulham scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Fulham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

04 Apr

Aston Villa

A

1

3

L

O

G

19 Mar

Leeds

H

1

2

L

O

G

13 Mar

Man City

H

0

3

L

O

N

07 Mar

Liverpool

A

1

0

W

U

N

04 Mar

Tottenham

H

0

1

L

U

N

28 Feb

Crystal Palace

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Sheffield United

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Feb

Burnley

A

1

1

D

U

G


Wolves in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolves scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wolves in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolves scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wolves’s performance as a guest.
Wolves, as a guest, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 35.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolves scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wolves was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Apr

West Ham

H

2

3

L

O

G

15 Mar

Liverpool

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Mar

Aston Villa

A

0

0

D

U

N

02 Mar

Man City

A

1

4

L

O

G

27 Feb

Newcastle

A

1

1

D

U

G

19 Feb

Leeds

H

1

0

W

U

N

14 Feb

Southampton

A

2

1

W

O

G

07 Feb

Leicester

H

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Fulham is -0.541 and for the Wolves is -0.407.
The home dynamic for the Fulham is -0.673 and the dynamic as a guest for the Wolves is -0.304.
The offensive ability for the Fulham is -0.056 and for the Wolves is 0.157.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Fulham is -0.295 and for the Wolves is -0.385.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Fulham and the red line for guest team, Wolves.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Fulham

28%

28%

34%

10%

Wolves

28%

34%

22%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Fulham to score 1.1 goals and Wolves to score 0.97 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.06 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.13 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Fulham to score 1.27 goals and Wolves to score 1.25 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.02 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.66

0-1

3.97

1

5.78

2-3

1.99

2

3.97

4+

4.08

3

4.00

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.58

Un 1.5

3.97

5

12.99

Ov 2.5

2.02

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.98

Gg

1.93

Ov 3.5

4.08

NoG

2.07

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.19

3.19

2.68

2-3 goals

2.06

5.28

3.08

4+ goals

4.38

2.72

2.47

Ov 1.5

2.49

4.04

2.85

Un 1.5

3.19

3.19

2.68

Ov 2.5

2.45

5.50

2.44

Un 2.5

2.85

2.90

3.29

Ov 3.5

4.38

2.72

2.47

Un 3.5

2.33

4.33

2.93

Goal-Goal

2.99

2.79

3.25

No Goal

2.34

6.10

2.45

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.44

4.69

2.65

NG+Un 2.5

2.31

6.10

2.67


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Man City vs Leeds at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Man City and Leeds for Premier League (England), which will take place on 10 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Man City

1.30

1.72

-18.8

Draw

5.96

4.08

7.7

Leeds

9.73

5.75

7.1

Over 2.5

1.47

2.03

-18.8

Under 2.5

2.67

1.97

13.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Leeds, Under 2.5 (7.7 %, 7.1 %, 13.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Man City in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Man City in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Man City’s performance at home.
Man City, at home, had 12 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 38 points, 79.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Man City was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Apr

Leicester

A

2

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Fulham

A

3

0

W

O

N

10 Mar

Southampton

H

5

2

W

O

G

07 Mar

Man United

H

0

2

L

U

N

02 Mar

Wolves

H

4

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

West Ham

H

2

1

W

O

G

21 Feb

Arsenal

A

1

0

W

U

N

17 Feb

Everton

A

3

1

W

O

G


Leeds in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Leeds scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leeds in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Leeds scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leeds’s performance as a guest.
Leeds, as a guest, had 7 wins, no draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Leeds scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leeds was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Apr

Sheffield United

H

2

1

W

O

G

19 Mar

Fulham

A

2

1

W

O

G

13 Mar

Chelsea

H

0

0

D

U

N

08 Mar

West Ham

A

0

2

L

U

N

27 Feb

Aston Villa

H

0

1

L

U

N

23 Feb

Southampton

H

3

0

W

O

N

19 Feb

Wolves

A

0

1

L

U

N

14 Feb

Arsenal

A

2

4

L

O

G


The form score for the Man City is 0.681 and for the Leeds is 0.207.
The home dynamic for the Man City is 0.591 and the dynamic as a guest for the Leeds is 0.217.
The offensive ability for the Man City is 0.631 and for the Leeds is -0.13.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Man City is -0.093 and for the Leeds is -0.385.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Man City and the red line for guest team, Leeds.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Man City

14%

39%

15%

32%

Leeds

43%

36%

15%

6%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Man City to score 2.64 goals and Leeds to score 0.58 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.22 goals in the game and the home team Man City to win by 2.06 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Man City to score 1.64 goals and Leeds to score 0.85 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the home team Man City to win by 0.79 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

16.39

0-1

3.55

1

4.52

2-3

2.07

2

4.42

4+

4.22

3

3.89

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.21

Un 1.5

3.55

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.02

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.97

Gg

2.03

Ov 3.5

4.22

NoG

1.96

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.67

4.62

5.42

2-3 goals

1.92

3.38

5.43

4+ goals

1.46

5.64

7.18

Ov 1.5

1.74

3.89

5.90

Un 1.5

1.67

4.62

5.42

Ov 2.5

1.41

11.76

4.89

Un 2.5

2.20

2.49

6.96

Ov 3.5

1.46

5.64

7.18

Un 3.5

1.82

3.75

5.43

Goal-Goal

2.29

2.66

5.35

No Goal

1.39

8.36

6.22

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.62

8.31

3.79

NG+Un 2.5

1.58

8.36

5.00


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Crystal Palace vs Chelsea at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Crystal Palace and Chelsea for Premier League (England), which will take place on 10 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Crystal Palace

7.00

3.17

17.3

Draw

3.95

3.91

0.3

Chelsea

1.54

2.33

-22.0

Over 2.5

2.07

1.93

3.5

Under 2.5

1.78

2.07

-7.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Crystal Palace, Draw, Over 2.5 (17.3 %, 0.3 %, 3.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Crystal Palace in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Crystal Palace in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crystal Palace’s performance at home.
Crystal Palace, at home, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crystal Palace was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Apr

Everton

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

West Brom

H

1

0

W

U

N

07 Mar

Tottenham

A

1

4

L

O

G

03 Mar

Man United

H

0

0

D

U

N

28 Feb

Fulham

H

0

0

D

U

N

22 Feb

Brighton

A

2

1

W

O

G

13 Feb

Burnley

H

0

3

L

O

N

08 Feb

Leeds

A

0

2

L

U

N


Chelsea in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Chelsea scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Chelsea in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Chelsea scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Chelsea’s performance as a guest.
Chelsea, as a guest, had 7 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Chelsea scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Chelsea was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Apr

West Brom

H

2

5

L

O

G

13 Mar

Leeds

A

0

0

D

U

N

08 Mar

Everton

H

2

0

W

U

N

04 Mar

Liverpool

A

1

0

W

U

N

28 Feb

Man United

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Southampton

A

1

1

D

U

G

15 Feb

Newcastle

H

2

0

W

U

N

07 Feb

Sheffield United

A

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Crystal Palace is 0.148 and for the Chelsea is 0.133.
The home dynamic for the Crystal Palace is -0.109 and the dynamic as a guest for the Chelsea is 0.13.
The offensive ability for the Crystal Palace is 0.288 and for the Chelsea is 0.217.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Crystal Palace is 0.172 and for the Chelsea is 0.333.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Crystal Palace and the red line for guest team, Chelsea.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Crystal Palace

33%

24%

35%

8%

Chelsea

24%

32%

24%

20%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Crystal Palace to score 0.62 goals and Chelsea to score 1.78 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and the guest team Chelsea to win by 1.16 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Crystal Palace to score 1.17 goals and Chelsea to score 1.41 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.24 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

4.13

1

6.10

2-3

2.02

2

4.17

4+

3.80

3

3.92

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

6.33

Un 1.5

4.13

5

11.24

Ov 2.5

1.93

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

2.07

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

3.80

NoG

2.04

Un 3.5

1.36

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

4.17

3.10

2.28

2-3 goals

2.32

6.35

2.43

4+ goals

6.12

2.63

2.19

Ov 1.5

2.96

4.26

2.34

Un 1.5

4.17

3.10

2.28

Ov 2.5

2.99

5.18

2.11

Un 2.5

3.42

3.09

2.61

Ov 3.5

6.12

2.63

2.19

Un 3.5

2.72

4.72

2.38

Goal-Goal

3.30

2.87

2.87

No Goal

3.08

6.27

1.94

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.79

4.33

2.43

NG+Un 2.5

2.87

6.27

2.18


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Liverpool vs Aston Villa at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Liverpool and Aston Villa for Premier League (England), which will take place on 10 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Liverpool

1.55

2.88

-29.8

Draw

4.40

3.91

2.8

Aston Villa

6.02

2.53

22.9

Over 2.5

1.64

1.91

-8.6

Under 2.5

2.31

2.10

4.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Aston Villa, Under 2.5 (2.8 %, 22.9 %, 4.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Liverpool in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Liverpool scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Liverpool in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Liverpool scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Liverpool’s performance at home.
Liverpool, at home, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 51.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Liverpool scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Liverpool was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Apr

Arsenal

A

3

0

W

O

N

15 Mar

Wolves

A

1

0

W

U

N

07 Mar

Fulham

H

0

1

L

U

N

04 Mar

Chelsea

H

0

1

L

U

N

28 Feb

Sheffield United

A

2

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Everton

H

0

2

L

U

N

13 Feb

Leicester

A

1

3

L

O

G

07 Feb

Man City

H

1

4

L

O

G


Aston Villa in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Aston Villa in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Aston Villa’s performance as a guest.
Aston Villa, as a guest, had 7 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 53.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Aston Villa was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

04 Apr

Fulham

H

3

1

W

O

G

21 Mar

Tottenham

H

0

2

L

U

N

12 Mar

Newcastle

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Mar

Wolves

H

0

0

D

U

N

03 Mar

Sheffield United

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Feb

Leeds

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Feb

Leicester

H

1

2

L

O

G

13 Feb

Brighton

A

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Liverpool is 0.059 and for the Aston Villa is 0.
The home dynamic for the Liverpool is 0.227 and the dynamic as a guest for the Aston Villa is 0.179.
The offensive ability for the Liverpool is -0.09 and for the Aston Villa is -0.157.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Liverpool is 0.26 and for the Aston Villa is -0.407.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Liverpool and the red line for guest team, Aston Villa.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Liverpool

31%

24%

32%

12%

Aston Villa

25%

33%

23%

19%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Liverpool to score 2.12 goals and Aston Villa to score 0.78 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.91 goals in the game and the home team Liverpool to win by 1.34 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Liverpool to score 1.25 goals and Aston Villa to score 1.35 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.1 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.66

0-1

4.13

1

6.13

2-3

2.06

2

4.27

4+

3.68

3

3.98

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

6.25

Un 1.5

4.13

5

11.24

Ov 2.5

1.91

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.10

Gg

1.95

Ov 3.5

3.68

NoG