2021 04 09 Primeira Liga (Portugal)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Portimonense vs Guimaraes at 09 April 2021
Maritimo vs Farense at 10 April 2021
Pacos Ferreira vs Benfica at 10 April 2021
Tondela vs Porto at 10 April 2021
Boavista vs Rio Ave at 10 April 2021
Gil Vicente vs Moreirense at 11 April 2021
Santa Clara vs Nacional at 11 April 2021
Sp Braga vs Belenenses at 11 April 2021
Sp Lisbon vs Famalicao at 11 April 2021


Portimonense vs Guimaraes at 09 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Portimonense and Guimaraes for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 09 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Portimonense

2.57

3.07

-6.3

Draw

3.08

3.66

-5.1

Guimaraes

2.91

2.49

5.8

Over 2.5

2.43

2.31

2.1

Under 2.5

1.56

1.76

-7.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Guimaraes, Over 2.5 (5.8 %, 2.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Portimonense in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Portimonense scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Portimonense in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Portimonense scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Portimonense’s performance at home.
Portimonense, at home, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Portimonense scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Portimonense was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Apr

Nacional

A

5

1

W

O

G

20 Mar

Porto

H

1

2

L

O

G

13 Mar

Santa Clara

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Mar

Tondela

H

3

0

W

O

N

28 Feb

Maritimo

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Sp Lisbon

A

0

2

L

U

N

14 Feb

Gil Vicente

H

4

1

W

O

G

09 Feb

Pacos Ferreira

A

0

0

D

U

N


Guimaraes in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Guimaraes scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Guimaraes in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Guimaraes scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Guimaraes’s performance as a guest.
Guimaraes, as a guest, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 52.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Guimaraes scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Guimaraes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

04 Apr

Tondela

H

1

2

L

O

G

20 Mar

Sp Lisbon

A

0

1

L

U

N

14 Mar

Gil Vicente

H

2

4

L

O

G

09 Mar

Sp Braga

A

0

3

L

O

N

26 Feb

Boavista

H

2

1

W

O

G

21 Feb

Pacos Ferreira

A

1

2

L

O

G

17 Feb

Farense

H

2

2

D

O

G

13 Feb

Rio Ave

H

1

3

L

O

G


The form score for the Portimonense is -0.133 and for the Guimaraes is -0.704.
The home dynamic for the Portimonense is 0.218 and the dynamic as a guest for the Guimaraes is 0.314.
The offensive ability for the Portimonense is -0.056 and for the Guimaraes is 0.191.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Portimonense is -0.269 and for the Guimaraes is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Portimonense and the red line for guest team, Guimaraes.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Portimonense

33%

37%

18%

11%

Guimaraes

32%

27%

29%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Portimonense to score 1.11 goals and Guimaraes to score 1.02 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.12 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.09 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Portimonense to score 1.08 goals and Guimaraes to score 1.22 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.3 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.14 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.35

0-1

3.17

1

4.81

2-3

2.06

2

3.95

4+

5.03

3

4.31

Ov 1.5

1.46

4

7.69

Un 1.5

3.17

5

18.18

Ov 2.5

2.32

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.76

Gg

2.21

Ov 3.5

5.03

NoG

1.83

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.65

2.94

3.54

2-3 goals

3.37

4.90

2.00

4+ goals

3.21

2.97

2.84

Ov 1.5

3.32

4.12

2.19

Un 1.5

2.65

2.94

3.54

Ov 2.5

2.93

6.43

1.99

Un 2.5

3.19

2.76

3.09

Ov 3.5

3.21

2.97

2.84

Un 3.5

3.04

3.88

2.42

Goal-Goal

4.07

2.72

2.58

No Goal

2.56

5.11

2.42

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.18

5.27

2.02

NG+Un 2.5

2.63

5.11

2.55


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Maritimo vs Farense at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Maritimo and Farense for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 10 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Maritimo

2.56

2.34

3.7

Draw

3.00

3.64

-5.9

Farense

2.92

3.36

-4.5

Over 2.5

2.46

2.16

5.6

Under 2.5

1.54

1.87

-11.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Maritimo, Over 2.5 (3.7 %, 5.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Maritimo in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Maritimo scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Maritimo in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Maritimo scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Maritimo’s performance at home.
Maritimo, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Maritimo scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Maritimo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Apr

Benfica

A

0

1

L

U

N

21 Mar

Famalicao

H

0

4

L

O

N

12 Mar

Nacional

A

2

1

W

O

G

07 Mar

Moreirense

H

0

2

L

U

N

28 Feb

Portimonense

A

0

0

D

U

N

22 Feb

Porto

H

1

2

L

O

G

16 Feb

Tondela

A

1

2

L

O

G

08 Feb

Santa Clara

H

1

2

L

O

G


Farense in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Farense scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Farense in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Farense scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Farense’s performance as a guest.
Farense, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 25.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Farense scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Farense was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Apr

Sp Braga

H

1

2

L

O

G

21 Mar

Boavista

A

1

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Belenenses

H

0

1

L

U

N

07 Mar

Rio Ave

A

0

2

L

U

N

27 Feb

Famalicao

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Feb

Benfica

H

0

0

D

U

N

17 Feb

Guimaraes

A

2

2

D

O

G

13 Feb

Nacional

A

3

2

W

O

G


The form score for the Maritimo is -0.504 and for the Farense is -0.348.
The home dynamic for the Maritimo is -0.836 and the dynamic as a guest for the Farense is -0.633.
The offensive ability for the Maritimo is -0.605 and for the Farense is -0.452.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Maritimo is -0.648 and for the Farense is -0.059.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Maritimo and the red line for guest team, Farense.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Maritimo

25%

34%

23%

18%

Farense

31%

41%

14%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Maritimo to score 1.1 goals and Farense to score 1 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.1 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.1 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Maritimo to score 1.33 goals and Farense to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.66

0-1

3.46

1

4.76

2-3

2.08

2

4.05

4+

4.31

3

4.29

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

6.58

Un 1.5

3.46

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.15

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

1.87

Gg

1.95

Ov 3.5

4.31

NoG

2.05

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.73

3.66

2.78

2-3 goals

2.17

3.45

4.00

4+ goals

2.32

4.07

3.09

Ov 1.5

2.22

3.63

3.65

Un 1.5

2.73

3.66

2.78

Ov 2.5

1.86

8.16

2.94

Un 2.5

3.03

2.46

3.80

Ov 3.5

2.32

4.07

3.09

Un 3.5

2.35

3.53

3.43

Goal-Goal

2.65

2.62

4.15

No Goal

2.09

6.16

2.78

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.93

6.58

3.02

NG+Un 2.5

2.24

6.16

2.82


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Pacos Ferreira vs Benfica at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Pacos Ferreira and Benfica for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 10 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Pacos Ferreira

6.64

2.56

24.0

Draw

4.22

3.60

4.1

Benfica

1.47

3.00

-34.7

Over 2.5

1.84

2.14

-7.6

Under 2.5

1.98

1.88

2.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Pacos Ferreira, Draw, Under 2.5 (24 %, 4.1 %, 2.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Pacos Ferreira in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pacos Ferreira in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Pacos Ferreira’s performance at home.
Pacos Ferreira, at home, had 9 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 29 points, 80.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pacos Ferreira was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

04 Apr

Famalicao

A

0

2

L

U

N

20 Mar

Moreirense

H

3

0

W

O

N

14 Mar

Porto

A

0

2

L

U

N

05 Mar

Nacional

H

2

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

Santa Clara

A

0

3

L

O

N

21 Feb

Guimaraes

H

2

1

W

O

G

15 Feb

Sp Lisbon

A

0

2

L

U

N

09 Feb

Portimonense

H

0

0

D

U

N


Benfica in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Benfica scored in 5 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Benfica in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Benfica scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Benfica’s performance as a guest.
Benfica, as a guest, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Benfica scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Benfica was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Apr

Maritimo

H

1

0

W

U

N

21 Mar

Sp Braga

A

2

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Boavista

H

2

0

W

U

N

08 Mar

Belenenses

A

3

0

W

O

N

01 Mar

Rio Ave

H

2

0

W

U

N

21 Feb

Farense

A

0

0

D

U

N

14 Feb

Moreirense

A

1

1

D

U

G

08 Feb

Famalicao

H

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Pacos Ferreira is -0.037 and for the Benfica is 0.867.
The home dynamic for the Pacos Ferreira is 0.791 and the dynamic as a guest for the Benfica is 0.411.
The offensive ability for the Pacos Ferreira is -0.202 and for the Benfica is 0.678.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Pacos Ferreira is -0.559 and for the Benfica is 1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Pacos Ferreira and the red line for guest team, Benfica.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Pacos Ferreira

27%

35%

22%

16%

Benfica

29%

41%

16%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Pacos Ferreira to score 0.66 goals and Benfica to score 1.96 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and the guest team Benfica to win by 1.3 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Pacos Ferreira to score 1.27 goals and Benfica to score 1.17 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.1 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

3.47

1

4.76

2-3

2.10

2

4.08

4+

4.22

3

4.33

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

6.54

Un 1.5

3.47

5

16.95

Ov 2.5

2.14

6+

40.00

Un 2.5

1.88

Gg

1.92

Ov 3.5

4.22

NoG

2.08

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.91

3.69

2.59

2-3 goals

2.40

3.38

3.47

4+ goals

2.55

4.02

2.79

Ov 1.5

2.45

3.56

3.21

Un 1.5

2.91

3.69

2.59

Ov 2.5

2.04

7.93

2.60

Un 2.5

3.31

2.43

3.48

Ov 3.5

2.55

4.02

2.79

Un 3.5

2.57

3.49

3.08

Goal-Goal

2.86

2.61

3.75

No Goal

2.31

6.15

2.47

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.09

6.44

2.73

NG+Un 2.5

2.43

6.15

2.56


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Tondela vs Porto at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Tondela and Porto for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 10 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Tondela

7.65

4.72

8.1

Draw

4.38

3.94

2.5

Porto

1.41

1.87

-17.4

Over 2.5

1.85

2.21

-8.8

Under 2.5

1.95

1.83

3.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Tondela, Draw, Under 2.5 (8.1 %, 2.5 %, 3.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Tondela in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Tondela scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Tondela in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Tondela scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Tondela’s performance at home.
Tondela, at home, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 63.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Tondela scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Tondela was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

04 Apr

Guimaraes

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Mar

Santa Clara

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Sp Lisbon

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Mar

Portimonense

A

0

3

L

O

N

28 Feb

Gil Vicente

H

1

0

W

U

N

21 Feb

Sp Braga

A

2

4

L

O

G

16 Feb

Maritimo

H

2

1

W

O

G

09 Feb

Rio Ave

A

1

2

L

O

G


Porto in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Porto scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Porto in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Porto scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Porto’s performance as a guest.
Porto, as a guest, had 8 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 27 points, 75.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Porto scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Porto was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Apr

Santa Clara

H

2

1

W

O

G

20 Mar

Portimonense

A

2

1

W

O

G

14 Mar

Pacos Ferreira

H

2

0

W

U

N

06 Mar

Gil Vicente

A

2

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Sp Lisbon

H

0

0

D

U

N

22 Feb

Maritimo

A

2

1

W

O

G

13 Feb

Boavista

H

2

2

D

O

G

07 Feb

Sp Braga

A

2

2

D

O

G


The form score for the Tondela is -0.126 and for the Porto is 0.852.
The home dynamic for the Tondela is 0.6 and the dynamic as a guest for the Porto is 0.884.
The offensive ability for the Tondela is 0.227 and for the Porto is 0.652.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Tondela is -0.648 and for the Porto is -0.037.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Tondela and the red line for guest team, Porto.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Tondela

40%

38%

16%

6%

Porto

23%

27%

30%

20%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Tondela to score 0.59 goals and Porto to score 2 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.59 goals in the game and the guest team Porto to win by 1.41 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Tondela to score 0.87 goals and Porto to score 1.48 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and the guest team Porto to win by 0.61 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.87

0-1

3.47

1

5.10

2-3

1.95

2

3.85

4+

5.00

3

3.97

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

7.19

Un 1.5

3.47

5

20.41

Ov 2.5

2.21

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

1.82

Gg

2.17

Ov 3.5

5.00

NoG

1.85

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at