# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Portimonense vs Guimaraes at 09 April 2021**** Maritimo vs Farense at 10 April 2021**** Pacos Ferreira vs Benfica at 10 April 2021**** Tondela vs Porto at 10 April 2021**** Boavista vs Rio Ave at 10 April 2021**** Gil Vicente vs Moreirense at 11 April 2021**** Santa Clara vs Nacional at 11 April 2021**** Sp Braga vs Belenenses at 11 April 2021**** Sp Lisbon vs Famalicao at 11 April 2021**

###
Portimonense vs Guimaraes at 09 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Portimonense** and **Guimaraes** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **09 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Portimonense |
2.57 |
3.07 |
-6.3 |

Draw |
3.08 |
3.66 |
-5.1 |

Guimaraes |
2.91 |
2.49 |
5.8 |

Over 2.5 |
2.43 |
2.31 |
2.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.56 |
1.76 |
-7.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Guimaraes, Over 2.5 (5.8 %, 2.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Portimonense** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Portimonense scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Portimonense** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Portimonense scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Portimonense’s performance** at home**.

Portimonense,** at home**, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Portimonense scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Portimonense was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Apr |
Nacional |
A |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Porto |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Santa Clara |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Tondela |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

28 Feb |
Maritimo |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Sp Lisbon |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Gil Vicente |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Pacos Ferreira |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Guimaraes** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Guimaraes scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Guimaraes** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Guimaraes scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Guimaraes’s performance** as a guest**.

Guimaraes,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 52.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Guimaraes scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Guimaraes was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

04 Apr |
Tondela |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Sp Lisbon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Mar |
Gil Vicente |
H |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Mar |
Sp Braga |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

26 Feb |
Boavista |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Feb |
Pacos Ferreira |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Feb |
Farense |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Rio Ave |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Portimonense** is **-0.133** and for the **Guimaraes** is **-0.704.**

The home dynamic for the **Portimonense** is **0.218** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Guimaraes** is **0.314.**

The offensive ability for the **Portimonense** is **-0.056** and for the **Guimaraes** is **0.191.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Portimonense** is **-0.269** and for the **Guimaraes** is **-1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Portimonense** and the red line for guest team, **Guimaraes. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Portimonense |
33% |
37% |
18% |
11% |

Guimaraes |
32% |
27% |
29% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Portimonense** to score **1.11 ** goals and **Guimaraes** to score **1.02 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.12** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.09** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Portimonense** to score **1.08 ** goals and **Guimaraes** to score **1.22 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.3** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.14** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.35 |
0-1 |
3.17 |

1 |
4.81 |
2-3 |
2.06 |

2 |
3.95 |
4+ |
5.03 |

3 |
4.31 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.46 |

4 |
7.69 |
Un 1.5 |
3.17 |

5 |
18.18 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.32 |

6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.76 |

Gg |
2.21 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.03 |

NoG |
1.83 |
Un 3.5 |
1.25 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.65 |
2.94 |
3.54 |

2-3 goals |
3.37 |
4.90 |
2.00 |

4+ goals |
3.21 |
2.97 |
2.84 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.32 |
4.12 |
2.19 |

Un 1.5 |
2.65 |
2.94 |
3.54 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.93 |
6.43 |
1.99 |

Un 2.5 |
3.19 |
2.76 |
3.09 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.21 |
2.97 |
2.84 |

Un 3.5 |
3.04 |
3.88 |
2.42 |

Goal-Goal |
4.07 |
2.72 |
2.58 |

No Goal |
2.56 |
5.11 |
2.42 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.18 |
5.27 |
2.02 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.63 |
5.11 |
2.55 |

####
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###
Maritimo vs Farense at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Maritimo** and **Farense** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **10 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Maritimo |
2.56 |
2.34 |
3.7 |

Draw |
3.00 |
3.64 |
-5.9 |

Farense |
2.92 |
3.36 |
-4.5 |

Over 2.5 |
2.46 |
2.16 |
5.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.54 |
1.87 |
-11.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Maritimo, Over 2.5 (3.7 %, 5.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Maritimo** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Maritimo scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Maritimo** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Maritimo scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Maritimo’s performance** at home**.

Maritimo,** at home**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Maritimo scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Maritimo was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Apr |
Benfica |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Mar |
Famalicao |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

12 Mar |
Nacional |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Mar |
Moreirense |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

28 Feb |
Portimonense |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

22 Feb |
Porto |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Feb |
Tondela |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

08 Feb |
Santa Clara |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Farense** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Farense scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Farense** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Farense scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Farense’s performance** as a guest**.

Farense,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 25.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Farense scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Farense was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Apr |
Sp Braga |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Mar |
Boavista |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Belenenses |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Mar |
Rio Ave |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Famalicao |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Feb |
Benfica |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

17 Feb |
Guimaraes |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Nacional |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Maritimo** is **-0.504** and for the **Farense** is **-0.348.**

The home dynamic for the **Maritimo** is **-0.836** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Farense** is **-0.633.**

The offensive ability for the **Maritimo** is **-0.605** and for the **Farense** is **-0.452.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Maritimo** is **-0.648** and for the **Farense** is **-0.059.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Maritimo** and the red line for guest team, **Farense. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Maritimo |
25% |
34% |
23% |
18% |

Farense |
31% |
41% |
14% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Maritimo** to score **1.1 ** goals and **Farense** to score **1 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.1** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.1** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Maritimo** to score **1.33 ** goals and **Farense** to score **1.1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.43** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.23** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
3.46 |

1 |
4.76 |
2-3 |
2.08 |

2 |
4.05 |
4+ |
4.31 |

3 |
4.29 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
6.58 |
Un 1.5 |
3.46 |

5 |
17.86 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.15 |

6+ |
41.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.87 |

Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.31 |

NoG |
2.05 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.73 |
3.66 |
2.78 |

2-3 goals |
2.17 |
3.45 |
4.00 |

4+ goals |
2.32 |
4.07 |
3.09 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.22 |
3.63 |
3.65 |

Un 1.5 |
2.73 |
3.66 |
2.78 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.86 |
8.16 |
2.94 |

Un 2.5 |
3.03 |
2.46 |
3.80 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.32 |
4.07 |
3.09 |

Un 3.5 |
2.35 |
3.53 |
3.43 |

Goal-Goal |
2.65 |
2.62 |
4.15 |

No Goal |
2.09 |
6.16 |
2.78 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.93 |
6.58 |
3.02 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.24 |
6.16 |
2.82 |

####
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###
Pacos Ferreira vs Benfica at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Pacos Ferreira** and **Benfica** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **10 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Pacos Ferreira |
6.64 |
2.56 |
24.0 |

Draw |
4.22 |
3.60 |
4.1 |

Benfica |
1.47 |
3.00 |
-34.7 |

Over 2.5 |
1.84 |
2.14 |
-7.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.98 |
1.88 |
2.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Pacos Ferreira, Draw, Under 2.5 (24 %, 4.1 %, 2.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Pacos Ferreira** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Pacos Ferreira** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Pacos Ferreira’s performance** at home**.

Pacos Ferreira,** at home**, had 9 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 29 points, 80.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Pacos Ferreira was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

04 Apr |
Famalicao |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Moreirense |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

14 Mar |
Porto |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Mar |
Nacional |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Santa Clara |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

21 Feb |
Guimaraes |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

15 Feb |
Sp Lisbon |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Portimonense |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Benfica** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Benfica scored in 5 of them** and kept clean sheet in all of them.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

More recently, **Benfica** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Benfica** scored in all of them**** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Benfica’s performance** as a guest**.

Benfica,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Benfica scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Benfica was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Apr |
Maritimo |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Mar |
Sp Braga |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Boavista |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

08 Mar |
Belenenses |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

01 Mar |
Rio Ave |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Feb |
Farense |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Moreirense |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

08 Feb |
Famalicao |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Pacos Ferreira** is **-0.037** and for the **Benfica** is **0.867.**

The home dynamic for the **Pacos Ferreira** is **0.791** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Benfica** is **0.411.**

The offensive ability for the **Pacos Ferreira** is **-0.202** and for the **Benfica** is **0.678.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Pacos Ferreira** is **-0.559** and for the **Benfica** is **1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Pacos Ferreira** and the red line for guest team, **Benfica. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Pacos Ferreira |
27% |
35% |
22% |
16% |

Benfica |
29% |
41% |
16% |
15% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Pacos Ferreira** to score **0.66 ** goals and **Benfica** to score **1.96 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.61** goals in the game and the guest team **Benfica ** to win by **1.3** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Pacos Ferreira** to score **1.27 ** goals and **Benfica** to score **1.17 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.44** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.1** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
3.47 |

1 |
4.76 |
2-3 |
2.10 |

2 |
4.08 |
4+ |
4.22 |

3 |
4.33 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
6.54 |
Un 1.5 |
3.47 |

5 |
16.95 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.14 |

6+ |
40.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.88 |

Gg |
1.92 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.22 |

NoG |
2.08 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.91 |
3.69 |
2.59 |

2-3 goals |
2.40 |
3.38 |
3.47 |

4+ goals |
2.55 |
4.02 |
2.79 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.45 |
3.56 |
3.21 |

Un 1.5 |
2.91 |
3.69 |
2.59 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.04 |
7.93 |
2.60 |

Un 2.5 |
3.31 |
2.43 |
3.48 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.55 |
4.02 |
2.79 |

Un 3.5 |
2.57 |
3.49 |
3.08 |

Goal-Goal |
2.86 |
2.61 |
3.75 |

No Goal |
2.31 |
6.15 |
2.47 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.09 |
6.44 |
2.73 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.43 |
6.15 |
2.56 |

####
Go to Top

###
Tondela vs Porto at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Tondela** and **Porto** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **10 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Tondela |
7.65 |
4.72 |
8.1 |

Draw |
4.38 |
3.94 |
2.5 |

Porto |
1.41 |
1.87 |
-17.4 |

Over 2.5 |
1.85 |
2.21 |
-8.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.95 |
1.83 |
3.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Tondela, Draw, Under 2.5 (8.1 %, 2.5 %, 3.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Tondela** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Tondela scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Tondela** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Tondela scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Tondela’s performance** at home**.

Tondela,** at home**, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 63.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Tondela scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Tondela was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

04 Apr |
Guimaraes |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Santa Clara |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Mar |
Sp Lisbon |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Portimonense |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

28 Feb |
Gil Vicente |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Feb |
Sp Braga |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Feb |
Maritimo |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Rio Ave |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Porto** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Porto scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Porto** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Porto** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Porto’s performance** as a guest**.

Porto,** as a guest**, had 8 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 27 points, 75.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Porto scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Porto was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Apr |
Santa Clara |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Portimonense |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

14 Mar |
Pacos Ferreira |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Gil Vicente |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Sp Lisbon |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

22 Feb |
Maritimo |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Boavista |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

07 Feb |
Sp Braga |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Tondela** is **-0.126** and for the **Porto** is **0.852.**

The home dynamic for the **Tondela** is **0.6** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Porto** is **0.884.**

The offensive ability for the **Tondela** is **0.227** and for the **Porto** is **0.652.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Tondela** is **-0.648** and for the **Porto** is **-0.037.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Tondela** and the red line for guest team, **Porto. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Tondela |
40% |
38% |
16% |
6% |

Porto |
23% |
27% |
30% |
20% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Tondela** to score **0.59 ** goals and **Porto** to score **2 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.59** goals in the game and the guest team **Porto ** to win by **1.41** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Tondela** to score **0.87 ** goals and **Porto** to score **1.48 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.35** goals in the game and the guest team **Porto ** to win by **0.61** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.87 |
0-1 |
3.47 |

1 |
5.10 |
2-3 |
1.95 |

2 |
3.85 |
4+ |
5.00 |

3 |
3.97 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
7.19 |
Un 1.5 |
3.47 |

5 |
20.41 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.21 |

6+ |
83.33 |
Un 2.5 |
1.82 |

Gg |
2.17 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.00 |

NoG |
1.85 |
Un 3.5 |
1.25 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |