2021 04 09 Segunda Division (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Tenerife vs Sp Gijon at 09 April 2021
Vallecano vs Girona at 10 April 2021
Ponferradina vs Fuenlabrada at 10 April 2021
Oviedo vs Las Palmas at 10 April 2021
Zaragoza vs Almeria at 11 April 2021
Sabadell vs Cartagena at 11 April 2021
Mirandes vs Logrones at 11 April 2021
Espanol vs Leganes at 11 April 2021
Malaga vs Albacete at 11 April 2021
Mallorca vs Lugo at 11 April 2021
Alcorcon vs Castellon at 12 April 2021


Tenerife vs Sp Gijon at 09 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Tenerife and Sp Gijon for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 09 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Tenerife

2.51

2.21

5.4

Draw

2.75

3.61

-8.7

Sp Gijon

3.30

3.70

-3.3

Over 2.5

3.01

2.33

9.7

Under 2.5

1.37

1.75

-15.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Tenerife, Over 2.5 (5.4 %, 9.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Tenerife in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Tenerife scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Tenerife in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Tenerife scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Tenerife’s performance at home.
Tenerife, at home, had 8 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 29 points, 60.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Tenerife scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Tenerife was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Apr

Logrones

A

0

1

L

U

N

28 Mar

Las Palmas

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Mar

Malaga

A

1

1

D

U

G

14 Mar

Albacete

H

2

0

W

U

N

06 Mar

Zaragoza

A

0

1

L

U

N

28 Feb

Alcorcon

H

3

1

W

O

G

21 Feb

Leganes

A

0

1

L

U

N

13 Feb

Ponferradina

H

1

0

W

U

N


Sp Gijon in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Gijon scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sp Gijon in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Gijon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sp Gijon’s performance as a guest.
Sp Gijon, as a guest, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 45.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Gijon scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sp Gijon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

04 Apr

Mirandes

H

1

2

L

O

G

30 Mar

Vallecano

A

1

0

W

U

N

26 Mar

Alcorcon

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Mar

Sabadell

A

1

1

D

U

G

14 Mar

Mallorca

H

2

0

W

U

N

07 Mar

Ponferradina

A

2

2

D

O

G

28 Feb

Espanol

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Albacete

A

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Tenerife is -0.052 and for the Sp Gijon is 0.133.
The home dynamic for the Tenerife is 0.073 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sp Gijon is -0.304.
The offensive ability for the Tenerife is 0.202 and for the Sp Gijon is 0.591.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Tenerife is -0.621 and for the Sp Gijon is 0.015.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Tenerife and the red line for guest team, Sp Gijon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Tenerife

24%

35%

25%

15%

Sp Gijon

36%

37%

19%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Tenerife to score 1 goals and Sp Gijon to score 0.84 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.84 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.16 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Tenerife to score 1.32 goals and Sp Gijon to score 0.99 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and the home team Tenerife to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.24

0-1

3.27

1

4.61

2-3

1.99

2

3.75

4+

5.15

3

4.24

Ov 1.5

1.43

4

7.52

Un 1.5

3.27

5

20.41

Ov 2.5

2.33

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

1.75

Gg

2.07

Ov 3.5

5.15

NoG

1.92

Un 3.5

1.24

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.43

3.44

3.36

2-3 goals

2.08

3.90

3.81

4+ goals

2.26

3.23

4.04

Ov 1.5

2.12

3.69

3.87

Un 1.5

2.43

3.44

3.36

Ov 2.5

1.82

7.17

3.21

Un 2.5

2.63

2.63

4.18

Ov 3.5

2.26

3.23

4.04

Un 3.5

2.20

3.71

3.63

Goal-Goal

2.68

2.56

4.24

No Goal

1.90

5.84

3.31

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.97

5.90

3.11

NG+Un 2.5

2.04

5.84

3.24


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Vallecano vs Girona at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Vallecano and Girona for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 10 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Vallecano

2.07

2.14

-1.6

Draw

3.04

3.65

-5.5

Girona

3.97

3.86

0.7

Over 2.5

2.48

2.29

3.3

Under 2.5

1.53

1.78

-9.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Girona, Over 2.5 (0.7 %, 3.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Vallecano in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Vallecano scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Vallecano in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Vallecano scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Vallecano’s performance at home.
Vallecano, at home, had 9 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 29 points, 64.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Vallecano scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Vallecano was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Apr

Almeria

A

1

0

W

U

N

30 Mar

Sp Gijon

H

0

1

L

U

N

21 Mar

Alcorcon

A

3

0

W

O

N

12 Mar

Zaragoza

H

3

2

W

O

G

06 Mar

Las Palmas

A

1

1

D

U

G

27 Feb

Ponferradina

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Feb

Malaga

A

0

2

L

U

N

13 Feb

Cartagena

A

2

2

D

O

G


Girona in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Girona scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Girona in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Girona scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Girona’s performance as a guest.
Girona, as a guest, had 5 wins, 6 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 43.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Girona scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Girona was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Apr

Ponferradina

H

3

1

W

O

G

31 Mar

Sabadell

A

2

2

D

O

G

28 Mar

Albacete

H

2

1

W

O

G

19 Mar

Las Palmas

A

2

1

W

O

G

13 Mar

Lugo

H

1

1

D

U

G

07 Mar

Almeria

H

0

1

L

U

N

28 Feb

Fuenlabrada

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Feb

Castellon

H

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Vallecano is 0.348 and for the Girona is 0.393.
The home dynamic for the Vallecano is 0.409 and the dynamic as a guest for the Girona is 0.072.
The offensive ability for the Vallecano is 0.571 and for the Girona is 0.678.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Vallecano is -0.119 and for the Girona is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Vallecano and the red line for guest team, Girona.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Vallecano

23%

35%

26%

16%

Girona

37%

37%

19%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Vallecano to score 1.27 goals and Girona to score 0.82 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.09 goals in the game and the home team Vallecano to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Vallecano to score 1.35 goals and Girona to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and the home team Vallecano to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.76

0-1

3.36

1

4.69

2-3

1.98

2

3.76

4+

5.00

3

4.20

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

7.35

Un 1.5

3.36

5

19.61

Ov 2.5

2.28

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.77

Gg

2.05

Ov 3.5

5.00

NoG

1.95

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.35

3.51

3.47

2-3 goals

2.02

3.94

3.97

4+ goals

2.17

3.28

4.26

Ov 1.5

2.06

3.72

4.05

Un 1.5

2.35

3.51

3.47

Ov 2.5

1.77

7.18

3.37

Un 2.5

2.55

2.65

4.34

Ov 3.5

2.17

3.28

4.26

Un 3.5

2.13

3.77

3.77

Goal-Goal

2.61

2.58

4.36

No Goal

1.83

6.05

3.47

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.93

5.90

3.21

NG+Un 2.5

1.97

6.05

3.35


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Ponferradina vs Fuenlabrada at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Ponferradina and Fuenlabrada for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 10 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Ponferradina

2.71

2.21

8.3

Draw

3.03

3.61

-5.3

Fuenlabrada

2.73

3.70

-9.6

Over 2.5

2.58

2.33

4.2

Under 2.5

1.48

1.75

-10.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Ponferradina, Over 2.5 (8.3 %, 4.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Ponferradina in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Ponferradina scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Ponferradina in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Ponferradina scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Ponferradina’s performance at home.
Ponferradina, at home, had 8 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 29 points, 60.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ponferradina was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Apr

Girona

A

1

3

L

O

G

30 Mar

Logrones

H

2

2

D

O

G

27 Mar

Oviedo

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Mar

Almeria

H

2

1

W

O

G

12 Mar

Cartagena

A

1

1

D

U

G

07 Mar

Sp Gijon

H

2

2

D

O

G

27 Feb

Vallecano

A

1

1

D

U

G

19 Feb

Mirandes

H

1

0

W

U

N


Fuenlabrada in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Fuenlabrada scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Fuenlabrada in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Fuenlabrada scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Fuenlabrada’s performance as a guest.
Fuenlabrada, as a guest, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 47.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Fuenlabrada scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Fuenlabrada was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Apr

Zaragoza

H

0

1

L

U

N

01 Apr

Espanol

A

0

4

L

O

N

29 Mar

Mallorca

H

4

1

W

O

G

20 Mar

Leganes

A

2

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Las Palmas

H

1

2

L

O

G

08 Mar

Lugo

A

0

0

D

U

N

28 Feb

Girona

H

1

1

D

U

G

22 Feb

Oviedo

H

2

2

D

O

G


The form score for the Ponferradina is -0.037 and for the Fuenlabrada is -0.2.
The home dynamic for the Ponferradina is 0.118 and the dynamic as a guest for the Fuenlabrada is 0.053.
The offensive ability for the Ponferradina is 1 and for the Fuenlabrada is -0.217.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Ponferradina is -1 and for the Fuenlabrada is -0.407.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Ponferradina and the red line for guest team, Fuenlabrada.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Ponferradina

24%

35%

25%

15%

Fuenlabrada

36%

37%

19%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ponferradina to score 1.01 goals and Fuenlabrada to score 1.01 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.02 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ponferradina to score 1.32 goals and Fuenlabrada to score 0.99 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and the home team Ponferradina to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.24

0-1

3.27

1

4.61

2-3

1.99

2

3.75

4+

5.15

3

4.24

Ov 1.5

1.43

4

7.52

Un 1.5

3.27

5

20.41

Ov 2.5

2.33

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

1.75

Gg

2.07

Ov 3.5

5.15

NoG

1.92

Un 3.5

1.24

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.43

3.44

3.36

2-3 goals

2.08

3.90

3.81

4+ goals

2.26

3.23

4.04

Ov 1.5

2.12

3.69

3.87

Un 1.5

2.43

3.44

3.36

Ov 2.5

1.82

7.17

3.21

Un 2.5

2.63

2.63

4.18

Ov 3.5

2.26

3.23

4.04

Un 3.5

2.20

3.71

3.63

Goal-Goal

2.68

2.56

4.24

No Goal

1.90

5.84

3.31

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.97

5.90

3.11

NG+Un 2.5

2.04

5.84

3.24


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Oviedo vs Las Palmas at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Oviedo and Las Palmas for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 10 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Oviedo

2.12

2.11

0.2

Draw

3.22

3.68

-3.9

Las Palmas

3.64

3.94

-2.1

Over 2.5

2.48

2.27

3.7

Under 2.5

1.52

1.79

-9.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Oviedo, Over 2.5 (0.2 %, 3.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Oviedo in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Oviedo scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Oviedo in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Oviedo scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Oviedo’s performance at home.
Oviedo, at home, had 5 wins, 6 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 43.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Oviedo scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Oviedo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Apr

Castellon

A

0

1

L

U

N

30 Mar

Alcorcon

A

1

1

D

U

G

27 Mar

Ponferradina

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Mar

Mallorca

A

0

0

D

U

N

14 Mar

Leganes

H

1

3

L

O

G

05 Mar

Espanol

A

1

1

D

U

G

28 Feb

Zaragoza

H

1

0

W

U

N

22 Feb

Fuenlabrada

A

2

2

D

O

G


Las Palmas in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Las Palmas scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Las Palmas in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Las Palmas scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Las Palmas’s performance as a guest.
Las Palmas, as a guest, had 2 wins, 7 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 27.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Las Palmas scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Las Palmas was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

04 Apr

Mallorca

H

1

1

D

U

G

01 Apr

Lugo

H

6

1

W

O

G

28 Mar

Tenerife

A

1

1

D

U

G

19 Mar

Girona

H

1

2

L

O

G

13 Mar

Fuenlabrada

A

2

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Vallecano

H

1

1

D

U

G

27 Feb

Castellon

A

0

4

L

O

N

20 Feb

Cartagena

H

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Oviedo is -0.348 and for the Las Palmas is 0.17.
The home dynamic for the Oviedo is -0.091 and the dynamic as a guest for the Las Palmas is -0.179.
The offensive ability for the Oviedo is 0.167 and for the Las Palmas is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Oviedo is -0.621 and for the Las Palmas is -1.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Oviedo and the red line for guest team, Las Palmas.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Oviedo

23%

35%

26%

17%

Las Palmas

37%

37%

19%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Oviedo to score 1.23 goals and Las Palmas to score 0.85 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.08 goals in the game and the home team Oviedo to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Oviedo to score 1.37 goals and Las Palmas to score 0.97 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and the home team Oviedo to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.05

0-1

3.41

1

4.76

2-3

1.99

2

3.79

4+

4.98

3

4.18

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

7.35

Un 1.5

3.41

5

19.23

Ov 2.5

2.27

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.80

Gg

2.05

Ov 3.5

4.98

NoG

1.96

Un 3.5

1.26

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-