2021 04 09 Serie A (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Udinese vs Torino at 10 April 2021
Spezia vs Crotone at 10 April 2021
Parma vs Milan at 10 April 2021
Inter vs Cagliari at 11 April 2021
Sampdoria vs Napoli at 11 April 2021
Roma vs Bologna at 11 April 2021
Juventus vs Genoa at 11 April 2021
Verona vs Lazio at 11 April 2021
Fiorentina vs Atalanta at 11 April 2021
Benevento vs Sassuolo at 12 April 2021


Udinese vs Torino at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Udinese and Torino for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 10 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Udinese

2.34

2.38

-0.7

Draw

3.28

3.77

-4.0

Torino

3.19

3.18

0.1

Over 2.5

2.17

2.07

2.2

Under 2.5

1.70

1.93

-7.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Torino, Over 2.5 (0.1 %, 2.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Udinese in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Udinese scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Udinese in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Udinese scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Udinese’s performance at home.
Udinese, at home, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 42.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Udinese scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Udinese was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Apr

Atalanta

A

2

3

L

O

G

21 Mar

Lazio

H

0

1

L

U

N

13 Mar

Genoa

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Mar

Sassuolo

H

2

0

W

U

N

03 Mar

Milan

A

1

1

D

U

G

28 Feb

Fiorentina

H

1

0

W

U

N

21 Feb

Parma

A

2

2

D

O

G

14 Feb

Roma

A

0

3

L

O

N


Torino in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Torino scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Torino in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Torino scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Torino’s performance as a guest.
Torino, as a guest, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 31.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Torino scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Torino was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Apr

Juventus

H

2

2

D

O

G

21 Mar

Sampdoria

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Mar

Sassuolo

H

3

2

W

O

G

14 Mar

Inter

H

1

2

L

O

G

07 Mar

Crotone

A

2

4

L

O

G

19 Feb

Cagliari

A

1

0

W

U

N

13 Feb

Genoa

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Feb

Atalanta

A

3

3

D

O

G


The form score for the Udinese is -0.089 and for the Torino is -0.185.
The home dynamic for the Udinese is -0.264 and the dynamic as a guest for the Torino is -0.227.
The offensive ability for the Udinese is 0.571 and for the Torino is 0.565.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Udinese is -0.295 and for the Torino is -0.726.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Udinese and the red line for guest team, Torino.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Udinese

25%

33%

24%

18%

Torino

34%

31%

24%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Udinese to score 1.28 goals and Torino to score 1.03 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.3 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Udinese to score 1.34 goals and Torino to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.2 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.76

0-1

3.65

1

5.29

2-3

2.06

2

4.10

4+

4.17

3

4.13

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.67

Un 1.5

3.65

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

2.07

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.93

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

4.17

NoG

1.98

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.47

3.22

3.51

2-3 goals

2.29

4.76

2.83

4+ goals

2.47

3.08

3.69

Ov 1.5

2.35

4.03

3.06

Un 1.5

2.47

3.22

3.51

Ov 2.5

2.10

6.18

2.75

Un 2.5

2.71

2.77

3.70

Ov 3.5

2.47

3.08

3.69

Un 3.5

2.35

4.06

3.04

Goal-Goal

2.92

2.76

3.40

No Goal

2.02

5.93

2.98

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.32

5.05

2.70

NG+Un 2.5

2.18

5.93

2.97


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Spezia vs Crotone at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Spezia and Crotone for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 10 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Spezia

1.84

2.28

-10.5

Draw

3.90

3.11

6.5

Crotone

4.03

4.18

-0.9

Over 2.5

1.69

2.20

-13.7

Under 2.5

2.19

1.83

9.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Under 2.5 (6.5 %, 9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Spezia in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Spezia in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Spezia’s performance at home.
Spezia, at home, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Spezia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Apr

Lazio

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Mar

Cagliari

H

2

1

W

O

G

12 Mar

Atalanta

A

1

3

L

O

G

06 Mar

Benevento

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Mar

Juventus

A

0

3

L

O

N

27 Feb

Parma

H

2

2

D

O

G

19 Feb

Fiorentina

A

0

3

L

O

N

13 Feb

Milan

H

2

0

W

U

N


Crotone in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Crotone scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Crotone in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Crotone scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Crotone’s performance as a guest.
Crotone, as a guest, had no wins, 2 draws, 13 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 4.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Crotone scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crotone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Apr

Napoli

A

3

4

L

O

G

20 Mar

Bologna

H

2

3

L

O

G

12 Mar

Lazio

A

2

3

L

O

G

07 Mar

Torino

H

4

2

W

O

G

03 Mar

Atalanta

A

1

5

L

O

G

28 Feb

Cagliari

H

0

2

L

U

N

22 Feb

Juventus

A

0

3

L

O

N

14 Feb

Sassuolo

H

1

2

L

O

G


The form score for the Spezia is -0.333 and for the Crotone is -0.681.
The home dynamic for the Spezia is -0.473 and the dynamic as a guest for the Crotone is -0.865.
The offensive ability for the Spezia is 0.657 and for the Crotone is 0.678.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Spezia is -1 and for the Crotone is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Spezia and the red line for guest team, Crotone.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Spezia

30%

8%

48%

14%

Crotone

47%

11%

33%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Spezia to score 1.8 goals and Crotone to score 1.01 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.82 goals in the game and the home team Spezia to win by 0.79 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Spezia to score 1.45 goals and Crotone to score 1.05 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Spezia to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

7.04

0-1

4.69

1

14.08

2-3

1.98

2

2.99

4+

3.53

3

5.85

Ov 1.5

1.27

4

5.52

Un 1.5

4.69

5

11.24

Ov 2.5

2.20

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.83

Gg

2.70

Ov 3.5

3.53

NoG

1.59

Un 3.5

1.39

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

5.61

1.50

6.45

2-3 goals

1.48

56.11

3.26

4+ goals

4.72

1.65

5.55

Ov 1.5

1.97

4.35

3.83

Un 1.5

5.61

1.50

6.45

Ov 2.5

2.58

2.64

4.28

Un 2.5

2.08

3.62

4.11

Ov 3.5

4.72

1.65

5.55

Un 3.5

1.89

4.75

3.82

Goal-Goal

3.31

2.05

4.76

No Goal

1.93

4.44

3.91

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.23

2.10

4.64

NG+Un 2.5

2.05

4.44

4.05


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Parma vs Milan at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Parma and Milan for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 10 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Parma

5.06

3.23

11.2

Draw

3.76

3.79

-0.2

Milan

1.71

2.35

-15.9

Over 2.5

1.85

1.97

-3.3

Under 2.5

1.99

2.03

-1.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Parma (11.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Parma in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Parma scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Parma in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Parma scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Parma’s performance at home.
Parma, at home, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 24.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Parma scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Parma was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Apr

Benevento

A

2

2

D

O

G

19 Mar

Genoa

H

1

2

L

O

G

14 Mar

Roma

H

2

0

W

U

N

07 Mar

Fiorentina

A

3

3

D

O

G

04 Mar

Inter

H

1

2

L

O

G

27 Feb

Spezia

A

2

2

D

O

G

21 Feb

Udinese

H

2

2

D

O

G

15 Feb

Verona

A

1

2

L

O

G


Milan in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Milan scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Milan in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Milan scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Milan’s performance as a guest.
Milan, as a guest, had 12 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 37 points, 88.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Milan scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Milan was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Apr

Sampdoria

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Mar

Fiorentina

A

3

2

W

O

G

14 Mar

Napoli

H

0

1

L

U

N

07 Mar

Verona

A

2

0

W

U

N

03 Mar

Udinese

H

1

1

D

U

G

28 Feb

Roma

A

2

1

W

O

G

21 Feb

Inter

H

0

3

L

O

N

13 Feb

Spezia

A

0

2

L

U

N


The form score for the Parma is -0.163 and for the Milan is 0.311.
The home dynamic for the Parma is -0.691 and the dynamic as a guest for the Milan is 0.884.
The offensive ability for the Parma is 1 and for the Milan is 0.591.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Parma is -0.586 and for the Milan is -0.681.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Parma and the red line for guest team, Milan.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Parma

30%

36%

20%

14%

Milan

25%

33%

20%

22%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Parma to score 0.82 goals and Milan to score 1.79 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and the guest team Milan to win by 0.97 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Parma to score 1.17 goals and Milan to score 1.4 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.23 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.79

1

5.29

2-3

2.13

2

4.37

4+

3.75

3

4.17

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.06

Un 1.5

3.79

5

13.89

Ov 2.5

1.97

6+

33.33

Un 2.5

2.03

Gg

1.91

Ov 3.5

3.75

NoG

2.10

Un 3.5

1.36

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.97

3.52

2.64

2-3 goals

3.15

4.01

2.31

4+ goals

3.76

3.76

2.14

Ov 1.5

3.35

3.91

2.24

Un 1.5

2.97

3.52

2.64

Ov 2.5

2.98

7.14

1.91

Un 2.5

3.55

2.57

3.04

Ov 3.5

3.76

3.76

2.14

Un 3.5

3.08

3.82

2.42

Goal-Goal

3.82

2.78

2.64

No Goal

2.77

6.36

2.07

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.96

5.72

2.05

NG+Un 2.5

2.71

6.36

2.32


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Inter vs Cagliari at 11 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Inter and Cagliari for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 11 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Inter

1.27

1.85

-24.7

Draw

5.89

3.75

9.7

Cagliari

11.30

5.24

10.2

Over 2.5

1.52

2.38

-23.8

Under 2.5

2.50

1.73

17.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Cagliari, Under 2.5 (9.7 %, 10.2 %, 17.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Inter in the last six matches had 6 wins, no draws, no defeats.and gathered 18 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Inter scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Inter in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Inter scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Inter’s performance at home.
Inter, at home, had 12 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 37 points, 88.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Inter scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Inter was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Apr

Sassuolo

H

2

1

W

O

G

03 Apr

Bologna

A

1

0

W

U

N

14 Mar

Torino

A

2

1

W

O

G

08 Mar

Atalanta

H

1

0

W

U

N

04 Mar

Parma

A

2

1

W

O

G

28 Feb

Genoa

H

3

0

W

O

N

21 Feb

Milan

A

3

0

W

O

N

14 Feb

Lazio

H

3

1

W

O

G


Cagliari in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Cagliari scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cagliari in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Cagliari scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cagliari’s performance as a guest.
Cagliari, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 23.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Cagliari scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cagliari was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Apr

Verona

H

0

2

L

U

N

20 Mar

Spezia

A

1

2

L

O

G

14 Mar

Juventus

H

1

3

L

O

G

07 Mar

Sampdoria

A

2

2

D

O

G

03 Mar

Bologna

H

1

0

W

U

N

28 Feb

Crotone

A

2

0

W

U

N

19 Feb

Torino

H

0

1

L

U

N

14 Feb

Atalanta

H

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Inter is 1 and for the Cagliari is -0.274.
The home dynamic for the Inter is 0.782 and the dynamic as a guest for the Cagliari is -0.662.
The offensive ability for the Inter is 1 and for the Cagliari is 0.539.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Inter is 0.145 and for the Cagliari is -0.43.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Inter and the red line for guest team, Cagliari.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Inter

24%

22%

35%

19%

Cagliari

58%

9%

28%

5%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Inter to score 2.59 goals and Cagliari to score 0.51 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.1 goals in the game and the home team Inter to win by 2.08 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Inter to score 1.49 goals and Cagliari to score 0.8 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and the home team Inter to win by 0.69 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

7.19

0-1

3.47

1

6.71

2-3

1.98

2

3.42

4+

4.85

3

4.67

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

7.87

Un 1.5

3.47

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

2.38

6+

111.11

Un 2.5

1.72

Gg

3.14

Ov 3.5

4.85

NoG

1.47