2021 04 09 Serie B (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Brescia vs Pescara at 10 April 2021
Cremonese vs Pordenone at 10 April 2021
Frosinone vs Cittadella at 10 April 2021
Lecce vs Spal at 10 April 2021
Virtus Entella vs Salernitana at 10 April 2021
Ascoli vs Monza at 10 April 2021
Venezia vs Cosenza at 11 April 2021
Chievo vs Pisa at 12 April 2021


Brescia vs Pescara at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Brescia and Pescara for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 10 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Brescia

2.16

2.02

3.2

Draw

3.15

3.89

-6.0

Pescara

3.44

4.03

-4.3

Over 2.5

2.14

2.10

0.9

Under 2.5

1.71

1.91

-6.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Brescia, Over 2.5 (3.2 %, 0.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Brescia in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Brescia scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Brescia in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Brescia scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brescia’s performance at home.
Brescia, at home, had 7 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 52.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Brescia scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Brescia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Apr

Reggiana

A

2

2

D

O

G

02 Apr

Pordenone

H

4

1

W

O

G

21 Mar

Salernitana

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 Mar

Reggina

H

1

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Frosinone

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Mar

Venezia

A

1

0

W

U

N

02 Mar

Cosenza

H

2

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Virtus Entella

A

1

1

D

U

G


Pescara in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Pescara scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pescara in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Pescara scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pescara’s performance as a guest.
Pescara, as a guest, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 29.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Pescara scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pescara was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Apr

Monza

A

1

1

D

U

G

02 Apr

Pisa

H

3

1

W

O

G

20 Mar

Vicenza

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 Mar

Ascoli

H

2

3

L

O

G

13 Mar

Pordenone

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Spal

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Mar

Cittadella

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Lecce

H

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Brescia is 0.459 and for the Pescara is -0.281.
The home dynamic for the Brescia is -0.273 and the dynamic as a guest for the Pescara is -0.372.
The offensive ability for the Brescia is 0.597 and for the Pescara is -0.07.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Brescia is 0.057 and for the Pescara is -0.704.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Brescia and the red line for guest team, Pescara.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Brescia

21%

30%

31%

18%

Pescara

38%

33%

19%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Brescia to score 1.35 goals and Pescara to score 0.97 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and the home team Brescia to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Brescia to score 1.45 goals and Pescara to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and the home team Brescia to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.66

0-1

3.77

1

5.38

2-3

1.97

2

3.89

4+

4.35

3

4.00

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.76

Un 1.5

3.77

5

15.62

Ov 2.5

2.08

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.92

Gg

2.03

Ov 3.5

4.35

NoG

1.96

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.28

3.35

3.79

2-3 goals

1.77

4.97

4.30

4+ goals

2.45

3.03

3.83

Ov 1.5

1.93

4.14

4.14

Un 1.5

2.28

3.35

3.79

Ov 2.5

1.81

6.32

3.45

Un 2.5

2.25

2.88

4.79

Ov 3.5

2.45

3.03

3.83

Un 3.5

1.92

4.27

4.11

Goal-Goal

2.50

2.77

4.18

No Goal

1.70

6.44

3.92

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.98

5.14

3.31

NG+Un 2.5

1.81

6.44

3.85


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Cremonese vs Pordenone at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Cremonese and Pordenone for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 10 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Cremonese

2.20

2.32

-2.4

Draw

2.99

3.52

-5.0

Pordenone

3.58

3.51

0.6

Over 2.5

2.41

2.33

1.4

Under 2.5

1.56

1.75

-7.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Pordenone, Over 2.5 (0.6 %, 1.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Cremonese in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Cremonese scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cremonese in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Cremonese scored in 2 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Cremonese’s performance at home.
Cremonese, at home, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 42.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Cremonese scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cremonese was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Apr

Cosenza

A

1

0

W

U

N

19 Mar

Ascoli

A

0

0

D

U

N

16 Mar

Virtus Entella

A

2

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Reggiana

H

3

0

W

O

N

06 Mar

Salernitana

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Mar

Vicenza

A

1

3

L

O

G

27 Feb

Frosinone

H

4

0

W

O

N

20 Feb

Brescia

A

2

1

W

O

G


Pordenone in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Pordenone scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pordenone in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Pordenone scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pordenone’s performance as a guest.
Pordenone, as a guest, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 39.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Pordenone scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pordenone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Apr

Virtus Entella

H

3

0

W

O

N

02 Apr

Brescia

A

1

4

L

O

G

16 Mar

Empoli

A

0

1

L

U

N

13 Mar

Pescara

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Monza

A

0

2

L

U

N

02 Mar

Chievo

A

0

3

L

O

N

27 Feb

Ascoli

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Feb

Reggina

A

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Cremonese is 0.244 and for the Pordenone is -0.444.
The home dynamic for the Cremonese is -0.173 and the dynamic as a guest for the Pordenone is 0.42.
The offensive ability for the Cremonese is 0.227 and for the Pordenone is -0.452.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Cremonese is 0.7 and for the Pordenone is -0.281.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Cremonese and the red line for guest team, Pordenone.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Cremonese

25%

35%

27%

13%

Pordenone

32%

41%

18%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cremonese to score 1.24 goals and Pordenone to score 0.89 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.13 goals in the game and the home team Cremonese to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cremonese to score 1.29 goals and Pordenone to score 1.03 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.39

1

4.65

2-3

1.95

2

3.64

4+

5.24

3

4.20

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

7.52

Un 1.5

3.39

5

21.28

Ov 2.5

2.33

6+

90.91

Un 2.5

1.75

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

5.24

NoG

2.04

Un 3.5

1.24

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.63

3.69

2.86

2-3 goals

2.13

3.56

4.01

4+ goals

2.48

3.18

3.54

Ov 1.5

2.21

3.45

3.87

Un 1.5

2.63

3.69

2.86

Ov 2.5

1.86

7.15

3.11

Un 2.5

2.86

2.54

3.88

Ov 3.5

2.48

3.18

3.54

Un 3.5

2.29

3.61

3.50

Goal-Goal

2.69

2.50

4.39

No Goal

2.03

6.12

2.90

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.93

6.08

3.15

NG+Un 2.5

2.14

6.12

2.90


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Frosinone vs Cittadella at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Frosinone and Cittadella for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 10 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Frosinone

2.47

2.50

-0.5

Draw

3.03

3.41

-3.7

Cittadella

2.97

3.26

-3.0

Over 2.5

2.22

2.38

-3.0

Under 2.5

1.65

1.72

-2.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Frosinone in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Frosinone scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Frosinone in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Frosinone didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Frosinone’s performance at home.
Frosinone, at home, had 3 wins, 7 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Frosinone scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Frosinone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Apr

Salernitana

A

0

1

L

U

N

02 Apr

Reggiana

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Mar

Lecce

H

0

3

L

O

N

16 Mar

Chievo

A

0

0

D

U

N

13 Mar

Brescia

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Mar

Cosenza

A

2

1

W

O

G

02 Mar

Monza

H

2

2

D

O

G

27 Feb

Cremonese

A

0

4

L

O

N


Cittadella in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Cittadella scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cittadella in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Cittadella scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cittadella’s performance as a guest.
Cittadella, as a guest, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 39.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Cittadella scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cittadella was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Apr

Reggina

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Apr

Vicenza

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Spal

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 Mar

Salernitana

H

0

0

D

U

N

12 Mar

Pisa

H

2

0

W

U

N

07 Mar

Empoli

A

1

1

D

U

G

02 Mar

Pescara

H

0

1

L

U

N

27 Feb

Monza

A

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Frosinone is -0.385 and for the Cittadella is -0.207.
The home dynamic for the Frosinone is -0.255 and the dynamic as a guest for the Cittadella is -0.082.
The offensive ability for the Frosinone is -1 and for the Cittadella is -0.217.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Frosinone is -0.181 and for the Cittadella is -0.385.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Frosinone and the red line for guest team, Cittadella.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Frosinone

26%

36%

27%

11%

Cittadella

29%

44%

18%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Frosinone to score 1.2 goals and Cittadella to score 1.06 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.14 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Frosinone to score 1.22 goals and Cittadella to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.15 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.16

0-1

3.38

1

4.55

2-3

1.92

2

3.53

4+

5.49

3

4.18

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

7.81

Un 1.5

3.38

5

22.73

Ov 2.5

2.38

6+

100.00

Un 2.5

1.73

Gg

1.91

Ov 3.5

5.49

NoG

2.10

Un 3.5

1.22

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.90

3.89

2.51

2-3 goals

2.28

3.30

3.87

4+ goals

2.64

3.14

3.31

Ov 1.5

2.36

3.26

3.71

Un 1.5

2.90

3.89

2.51

Ov 2.5

1.90

7.26

2.96

Un 2.5

3.23

2.47

3.49

Ov 3.5

2.64

3.14

3.31

Un 3.5

2.47

3.50

3.23

Goal-Goal

2.77

2.43

4.40

No Goal

2.26

6.26

2.52

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.94

6.31

3.08

NG+Un 2.5

2.35

6.26

2.54


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Lecce vs Spal at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Lecce and Spal for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 10 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Lecce

1.84

2.25

-9.9

Draw

3.43

3.64

-1.7

Spal

4.33

3.57

4.9

Over 2.5

1.96

2.23

-6.2

Under 2.5

1.83

1.81

0.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Spal, Under 2.5 (4.9 %, 0.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Lecce in the last six matches had 6 wins, no draws, no defeats.and gathered 18 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Lecce scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lecce in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Lecce scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Lecce’s performance at home.
Lecce, at home, had 6 wins, 8 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 54.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Lecce scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lecce was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Apr

Pisa

A

1

0

W

U

N

02 Apr

Salernitana

H

2

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Frosinone

A

3

0

W

O

N

16 Mar

Venezia

A

3

2

W

O

G

13 Mar

Chievo

H

4

2

W

O

G

07 Mar

Reggiana

A

4

0

W

O

N

02 Mar

Virtus Entella

H

0

0

D

U

N

27 Feb

Pescara

A

1

1

D

U

G


Spal in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Spal scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Spal in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Spal scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Spal’s performance as a guest.
Spal, as a guest, had 4 wins, 8 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Spal scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Spal was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Apr

Venezia

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Apr

Chievo

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Mar

Cittadella

H

1

0

W

U

N

15 Mar

Pisa

A

0

3

L

O

N

12 Mar

Virtus Entella

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Pescara

A

1

0

W

U

N

02 Mar

Salernitana

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Feb

Reggina

H

1

4

L

O

G


The form score for the Lecce is 1 and for the Spal is 0.148.
The home dynamic for the Lecce is -0.082 and the dynamic as a guest for the Spal is 0.082.
The offensive ability for the Lecce is 1 and for the Spal is 0.278.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Lecce is 0.648 and for the Spal is -0.089.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Lecce and the red line for guest team, Spal.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Lecce

23%

36%

26%

15%

Spal

35%

36%

19%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lecce to score 1.6 goals and Spal to score 0.87 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the home team Lecce to win by 0.73 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lecce to score 1.33 goals and Spal to score 1.04 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.29 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.48

1

4.83

2-3

1.99

2

3.77

4+

4.78

3

4.22

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

7.19

Un 1.5

3.48

5

18.18

Ov 2.5

2.24

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.81

Gg

2.00

Ov 3.5

4.78

NoG

2.01

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-