2021 04 09 Spain’s Liga ACB



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Obradoiro vs Manresa at 10 April 2021
Gipuzkoa vs Real Betis at 10 April 2021
Unicaja Malaga vs Andorra at 10 April 2021
Tenerife vs Estudiantes at 11 April 2021
Murcia vs Baskonia at 11 April 2021
Joventut Badalona vs Gran Canaria at 11 April 2021
Fuenlabrada vs San Pablo Burgos at 11 April 2021
Zaragoza vs Valencia at 11 April 2021
Barcelona vs Real Madrid at 11 April 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Obradoiro vs Manresa at 10 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Obradoiro and Manresa for Liga ACB, which will take place on 10 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Obradoiro

2.22

3.17

Manresa

1.7

1.46

Obradoiro HC

+2.5

5.50

Manresa HC

-2.5

-5.50

Point Line

168.5

164.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Obradoiro are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 3

A

Montakit Fuenlabrada

L

82

84

8

19

L 1

81

86

Mar 27

A

Acunsa GBC

W

79

66

8

18

W 1

76

73

Mar 23

H

Real Madrid

L

71

87

7

18

L 8

78

83

Mar 20

H

Unicaja

L

83

85

7

17

L 7

83

83

Mar 13

A

Divina Seguros Joventut

L

84

91

7

16

L 6

82

88

Mar 7

H

Baskonia

L

78

87

7

15

L 5

83

86

Mar 3

H

Movistar Estudiantes

L

87

91

7

14

L 4

83

92

Feb 28

H

Iberostar Tenerife

L

71

97

7

13

L 3

74

89

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Manresa are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 3

A

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

108

96

13

15

W 1

102

99

Mar 27

H

Real Madrid

L

76

77

12

15

L 2

83

73

Mar 21

A

MoraBanc Andorra

L

86

92

12

14

L 1

90

97

Mar 14

H

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

90

76

12

13

W 1

89

78

Mar 7

A

Valencia Basket

L

82

112

11

13

L 1

84

108

Feb 27

H

UCAM Murcia

W

85

84

11

12

W 1

84

85

Feb 6

A

Herbalife Gran Canaria

L

77

83

10

12

L 2

76

86

Jan 31

H

San Pablo Burgos

L

87

101

10

11

L 1

88

94

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Obradoiro and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Manresa.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Manresa and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Obradoiro.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Obradoiro (in the first graph) and by Manresa in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Obradoiro will expected to score 83 points and the Manresa 84 points. The total points line estimated to be at 167.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Obradoiro

Manresa

FG%

0.54

0.56

ASS

15.00

16.10

DRB

20.90

21.80

AST-TO

1.09

1.13

TRB

29.50

30.10

FTM

13.90

16.90

BL

2.20

3.40

FTA

17.80

22.40

PF-Fewer

19.00

20.90

ST

5.80

8.80

TO-Fewer

13.70

14.30

Ftper

0.78

0.76

ORBper

0.41

0.38

ORB

8.60

8.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


Go to Top


Gipuzkoa vs Real Betis at 10 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Gipuzkoa and Real Betis for Liga ACB, which will take place on 10 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Gipuzkoa

2.32

4.59

Real Betis

1.65

1.28

Gipuzkoa HC

+2.5

8.00

Real Betis HC

-2.5

-8.00

Point Line

157.5

158.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Gipuzkoa are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 4

A

Real Madrid

L

71

97

6

21

L 3

78

92

Mar 27

H

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

L

66

79

6

20

L 2

64

82

Mar 21

A

Herbalife Gran Canaria

L

81

90

6

19

L 1

80

93

Mar 14

H

Valencia Basket

W

78

60

6

18

W 1

79

58

Mar 6

A

Montakit Fuenlabrada

L

74

78

5

18

L 2

73

80

Feb 27

H

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

L

74

97

5

17

L 1

70

100

Feb 10

H

Movistar Estudiantes

W

81

79

5

16

W 1

77

80

Jan 24

H

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

68

110

4

16

L 1

76

103

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Real Betis are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 3

H

Iberostar Tenerife

L

82

93

7

20

L 1

85

86

Mar 28

A

Divina Seguros Joventut

W

88

78

7

19

W 1

86

75

Mar 21

A

Real Madrid

L

77

95

6

19

L 1

84

90

Mar 14

H

MoraBanc Andorra

W

69

61

6

18

W 1

72

64

Mar 7

A

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

L

84

86

5

18

L 3

79

88

Feb 28

H

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

L

82

85

5

17

L 2

75

85

Feb 6

A

Valencia Basket

L

81

89

5

16

L 1

82

86

Jan 23

H

Unicaja

W

78

75

5

15

W 1

78

73

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Gipuzkoa and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Real Betis.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Real Betis and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Gipuzkoa.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Gipuzkoa (in the first graph) and by Real Betis in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Gipuzkoa will expected to score 78 points and the Real Betis 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 160.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Gipuzkoa

Real Betis

FG%

0.48

0.50

ASS

13.80

14.00

DRB

20.30

20.10

AST-TO

1.01

1.06

TRB

30.10

30.60

FTM

10.20

14.90

BL

1.90

2.40

FTA

14.50

20.10

PF-Fewer

20.20

20.30

ST

8.20

8.10

TO-Fewer

13.70

13.20

Ftper

0.71

0.74

ORBper

0.48

0.52

ORB

9.80

10.50


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


Go to Top


Unicaja Malaga vs Andorra at 10 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Unicaja Malaga and Andorra for Liga ACB, which will take place on 10 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Unicaja Malaga

1.33

1.90

Andorra

3.45

2.11

Unicaja Malaga HC

-6.5

-1.50

Andorra HC

+6.5

1.50

Point Line

157.5

160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Unicaja Malaga are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 27

H

San Pablo Burgos

L

93

101

13

14

L 1

94

94

Mar 20

A

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

85

83

13

13

W 1

83

86

Mar 16

A

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

55

79

12

13

L 1

62

74

Mar 13

H

Herbalife Gran Canaria

W

82

76

12

12

W 3

81

78

Feb 27

H

Movistar Estudiantes

W

91

77

11

12

W 2

87

78

Feb 7

A

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

85

68

10

12

W 1

84

70

Jan 31

H

Valencia Basket

L

85

89

9

12

L 6

86

86

Jan 23

A

Coosur Real Betis

L

75

78

9

11

L 5

74

83

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Andorra are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 4

H

Baskonia

L

68

82

12

15

L 2

72

81

Mar 29

A

Movistar Estudiantes

L

85

97

12

14

L 1

81

98

Mar 21

H

Manresa

W

92

86

12

13

W 2

89

85

Mar 17

A

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

75

65

11

13

W 1

74

67

Mar 14

A

Coosur Real Betis

L

61

69

10

13

L 2

60

73

Mar 7

A

San Pablo Burgos

L

68

82

10

12

L 1

69

77

Feb 28

H

Valencia Basket

W

84

72

10

11

W 2

86

69

Feb 9

H

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

90

71

9

11

W 1

88

74

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Unicaja Malaga and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Andorra.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Andorra and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Unicaja Malaga.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Unicaja Malaga (in the first graph) and by Andorra in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Unicaja Malaga will expected to score 81 points and the Andorra 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 161.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Unicaja Malaga

Andorra

FG%

0.56

0.52

ASS

17.00

15.70

DRB

23.10

23.40

AST-TO

1.21

1.15

TRB

32.90

33.50

FTM

14.40

13.60

BL

2.30

3.30

FTA

18.60

17.90

PF-Fewer

19.00

20.90

ST

6.00

6.20

TO-Fewer

14.00

13.60

Ftper

0.78

0.76

ORBper

0.42

0.43

ORB

9.70

10.10


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


Go to Top


Tenerife vs Estudiantes at 11 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Tenerife and Estudiantes for Liga ACB, which will take place on 11 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Tenerife

1.15

1.52

Estudiantes

5.8

2.92

Tenerife HC

-9.5

-5.00

Estudiantes HC

+9.5

5.00

Point Line

168.5

166.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Tenerife are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 8

A

San Pablo Burgos

W

98

86

22

5

W 5

99

80

Apr 3

A

Coosur Real Betis

W

93

82

21

5

W 4

91

87

Mar 28

H

Valencia Basket

W

90

86

20

5

W 3

92

83

Mar 20

H

UCAM Murcia

W

85

78

19

5

W 2

84

79

Feb 28

A

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

97

71

18

5

W 1

94

74

Feb 7

H

Baskonia

L

79

81

17

5

L 1

84

80

Jan 30

A

MoraBanc Andorra

W

89

83

17

4

W 3

93

87

Jan 24

H

Manresa

W

85

70

16

4

W 2

82

69

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Estudiantes are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 4

H

UCAM Murcia

L

75

85

9

19

L 1

74

86

Mar 29

H

MoraBanc Andorra

W

97

85

9

18

W 1

101

89

Mar 23

A

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

68

98

8

18

L 1

76

92

Mar 20

A

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

W

113

104

8

17

W 1

104

104

Mar 17

H

Divina Seguros Joventut

L

83

90

7

17

L 1

81

87

Mar 14

H

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

95

89

7

16

W 1

89

91

Mar 6

A

Herbalife Gran Canaria

L

94

97

6

16

L 1

93

100

Mar 3

A

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

91

87

6

15

W 1

89

90

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Tenerife and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Estudiantes.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Estudiantes and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Tenerife.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Tenerife (in the first graph) and by Estudiantes in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Tenerife will expected to score 87 points and the Estudiantes 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 168.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Tenerife

Estudiantes

FG%

0.54

0.52

ASS

16.60

15.20

DRB

19.50

22.30

AST-TO

1.29

1.27

TRB

28.40

31.80

FTM

12.90

11.10

BL

2.10

3.30

FTA

17.30

15.10

PF-Fewer

21.80

23.10

ST

6.90

6.60

TO-Fewer

12.90

12.00

Ftper

0.75

0.74

ORBper

0.46

0.43

ORB

9.00

9.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


Go to Top


Murcia vs Baskonia at 11 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Murcia and Baskonia for Liga ACB, which will take place on 11 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Murcia

3.1

1.57

Baskonia

1.39

2.74

Murcia HC

+6.5

-4.50

Baskonia HC

-6.5

4.50

Point Line

160.5

159.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Murcia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 4

A

Movistar Estudiantes

W

85

75

10

17

W 1

81

76

Mar 28

H

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

L

82

90

9

17

L 1

77

92

Mar 24

A

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

82

70

9

16

W 1

81

72

Mar 20

A