2021 04 09 Super League (Greece)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Volos NFC vs Panetolikos at 10 April 2021
Atromitos vs Larisa at 10 April 2021
Apollon vs OFI Crete at 10 April 2021
Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK at 11 April 2021
Aris vs AEK at 11 April 2021
Giannina vs Lamia at 12 April 2021


Volos NFC vs Panetolikos at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Volos NFC and Panetolikos for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 10 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Volos NFC

2.22

2.29

-1.4

Draw

3.09

3.36

-2.6

Panetolikos

3.45

3.77

-2.5

Over 2.5

2.26

2.87

-9.4

Under 2.5

1.63

1.53

4.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Volos NFC in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Volos NFC scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Volos NFC in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Volos NFC scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Volos NFC’s performance at home.
Volos NFC, at home, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 40.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Volos NFC scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Volos NFC was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Apr

Lamia

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Mar

OFI Crete

H

0

0

D

U

N

14 Mar

AEK

H

1

0

W

U

N

07 Mar

Panetolikos

A

0

1

L

U

N

01 Mar

Olympiakos

H

1

2

L

O

G

21 Feb

Apollon

H

2

0

W

U

N

14 Feb

OFI Crete

A

2

1

W

O

G

07 Feb

Asteras Tripolis

H

0

1

L

U

N


Panetolikos in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Panetolikos in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Panetolikos’s performance as a guest.
Panetolikos, as a guest, had no wins, 6 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 14.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Panetolikos was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Apr

Larisa

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Mar

Lamia

H

0

3

L

O

N

14 Mar

Apollon

A

0

1

L

U

N

07 Mar

Volos NFC

H

1

0

W

U

N

28 Feb

Larisa

A

0

1

L

U

N

22 Feb

Panathinaikos

H

1

0

W

U

N

14 Feb

Aris

A

0

0

D

U

N

08 Feb

Giannina

H

1

2

L

O

G


The form score for the Volos NFC is 0 and for the Panetolikos is -0.207.
The home dynamic for the Volos NFC is -0.209 and the dynamic as a guest for the Panetolikos is -0.614.
The offensive ability for the Volos NFC is 0.202 and for the Panetolikos is -0.191.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Volos NFC is 0.172 and for the Panetolikos is -0.407.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Volos NFC and the red line for guest team, Panetolikos.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Volos NFC

37%

26%

21%

16%

Panetolikos

46%

33%

14%

6%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Volos NFC to score 1.28 goals and Panetolikos to score 0.95 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.23 goals in the game and the home team Volos NFC to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Volos NFC to score 1.16 goals and Panetolikos to score 0.8 goals.
So, we expect a total of 1.96 goals in the game and the home team Volos NFC to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

5.81

0-1

2.40

1

4.10

2-3

2.27

2

4.24

4+

6.94

3

4.90

Ov 1.5

1.71

4

10.10

Un 1.5

2.40

5

28.57

Ov 2.5

2.87

6+

100.00

Un 2.5

1.53

Gg

2.96

Ov 3.5

6.94

NoG

1.51

Un 3.5

1.17

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.47

2.42

3.35

2-3 goals

1.82

5.12

3.93

4+ goals

1.92

3.60

4.97

Ov 1.5

1.84

4.63

4.14

Un 1.5

3.47

2.42

3.35

Ov 2.5

1.59

8.70

3.91

Un 2.5

2.99

2.53

3.70

Ov 3.5

1.92

3.60

4.97

Un 3.5

2.36

3.32

3.63

Goal-Goal

2.32

2.68

5.12

No Goal

2.27

3.85

3.33

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.73

6.30

3.82

NG+Un 2.5

2.60

3.85

3.22


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Atromitos vs Larisa at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Atromitos and Larisa for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 10 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Atromitos

1.95

1.93

0.5

Draw

2.98

3.56

-5.5

Larisa

4.51

5.00

-2.2

Over 2.5

2.40

2.74

-5.2

Under 2.5

1.58

1.57

0.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Atromitos, Under 2.5 (0.5 %, 0.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Atromitos in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Atromitos scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Atromitos in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Atromitos scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Atromitos’s performance at home.
Atromitos, at home, had 4 wins, 6 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 42.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Atromitos scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Atromitos was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Apr

Apollon

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Mar

Giannina

A

0

1

L

U

N

14 Mar

Lamia

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Asteras Tripolis

H

1

1

D

U

G

28 Feb

Aris

A

0

3

L

O

N

20 Feb

Larisa

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Feb

Apollon

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Feb

Panathinaikos

H

2

3

L

O

G


Larisa in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Larisa in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Larisa’s performance as a guest.
Larisa, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 26.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Larisa was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Apr

Panetolikos

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Mar

Apollon

A

2

0

W

U

N

14 Mar

Olympiakos

H

1

3

L

O

G

10 Mar

Lamia

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Mar

OFI Crete

A

3

2

W

O

G

28 Feb

Panetolikos

H

1

0

W

U

N

24 Feb

Lamia

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Feb

Atromitos

A

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Atromitos is -0.333 and for the Larisa is 0.133.
The home dynamic for the Atromitos is -0.155 and the dynamic as a guest for the Larisa is -0.71.
The offensive ability for the Atromitos is -0.176 and for the Larisa is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Atromitos is -0.586 and for the Larisa is -0.356.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Atromitos and the red line for guest team, Larisa.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Atromitos

27%

35%

18%

20%

Larisa

50%

34%

13%

4%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Atromitos to score 1.37 goals and Larisa to score 0.78 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.15 goals in the game and the home team Atromitos to win by 0.59 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Atromitos to score 1.32 goals and Larisa to score 0.71 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.03 goals in the game and the home team Atromitos to win by 0.61 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

7.58

0-1

2.54

1

3.82

2-3

2.18

2

4.15

4+

6.85

3

4.61

Ov 1.5

1.66

4

9.52

Un 1.5

2.54

5

30.30

Ov 2.5

2.75

6+

125.00

Un 2.5

1.57

Gg

2.72

Ov 3.5

6.85

NoG

1.59

Un 3.5

1.17

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.28

2.98

4.43

2-3 goals

1.82

3.91

5.15

4+ goals

1.55

4.71

6.95

Ov 1.5

1.75

4.08

5.49

Un 1.5

2.28

2.98

4.43

Ov 2.5

1.42

11.71

4.78

Un 2.5

2.41

2.55

5.16

Ov 3.5

1.55

4.71

6.95

Un 3.5

2.00

3.42

4.79

Goal-Goal

2.37

2.49

5.66

No Goal

1.73

4.77

4.70

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.62

8.10

3.86

NG+Un 2.5

1.97

4.77

4.21


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Apollon vs OFI Crete at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Apollon and OFI Crete for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 10 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Apollon

2.46

2.51

-0.8

Draw

2.86

3.48

-6.2

OFI Crete

3.13

3.17

-0.4

Over 2.5

2.14

2.53

-7.2

Under 2.5

1.67

1.65

0.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (0.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Apollon in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Apollon in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Apollon’s performance at home.
Apollon, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, 9 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 31.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Apollon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Apr

Atromitos

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Mar

Larisa

H

0

2

L

U

N

14 Mar

Panetolikos

H

1

0

W

U

N

08 Mar

AEK

A

0

2

L

U

N

27 Feb

OFI Crete

H

2

1

W

O

G

21 Feb

Volos NFC

A

0

2

L

U

N

18 Feb

Lamia

H

0

1

L

U

N

13 Feb

Atromitos

H

2

1

W

O

G


OFI Crete in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, OFI Crete scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, OFI Crete in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, OFI Crete scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at OFI Crete’s performance as a guest.
OFI Crete, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 26.2% of the total available.
In these matches, OFI Crete scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of OFI Crete was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Apr

Giannina

H

2

1

W

O

G

20 Mar

Volos NFC

A

0

0

D

U

N

14 Mar

Aris

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Mar

Larisa

H

2

3

L

O

G

27 Feb

Apollon

A

1

2

L

O

G

21 Feb

Giannina

A

0

1

L

U

N

14 Feb

Volos NFC

H

1

2

L

O

G

07 Feb

Olympiakos

A

0

3

L

O

N


The form score for the Apollon is -0.163 and for the OFI Crete is -0.422.
The home dynamic for the Apollon is -0.764 and the dynamic as a guest for the OFI Crete is -0.44.
The offensive ability for the Apollon is -0.116 and for the OFI Crete is -0.157.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Apollon is -0.586 and for the OFI Crete is -0.63.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Apollon and the red line for guest team, OFI Crete.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Apollon

30%

37%

20%

14%

OFI Crete

36%

33%

25%

6%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Apollon to score 1.24 goals and OFI Crete to score 1.06 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.3 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Apollon to score 1.18 goals and OFI Crete to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.19 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.17 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.43

0-1

2.97

1

4.33

2-3

2.04

2

3.75

4+

5.88

3

4.46

Ov 1.5

1.51

4

8.55

Un 1.5

2.97

5

22.22

Ov 2.5

2.54

6+

125.00

Un 2.5

1.66

Gg

2.22

Ov 3.5

5.88

NoG

1.82

Un 3.5

1.21

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.55

3.18

3.40

2-3 goals

2.64

4.02

2.68

4+ goals

2.12

2.93

5.31

Ov 1.5

2.48

3.67

3.07

Un 1.5

2.55

3.18

3.40

Ov 2.5

2.02

6.79

2.79

Un 2.5

2.98

2.65

3.49

Ov 3.5

2.12

2.93

5.31

Un 3.5

2.60

3.63

2.94

Goal-Goal

3.08

2.50

3.63

No Goal

2.17

5.17

2.88

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.25

5.66

2.65

NG+Un 2.5

2.37

5.17

2.79


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK at 11 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Asteras Tripolis and PAOK for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 11 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Asteras Tripolis

5.85

2.34

25.6

Draw

4.01

3.37

4.7

PAOK

1.52

3.64

-38.3

Over 2.5

1.96

3.13

-19.1

Under 2.5

1.85

1.47

14.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Asteras Tripolis, Draw, Under 2.5 (25.6 %, 4.7 %, 14 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Asteras Tripolis in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Asteras Tripolis in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Asteras Tripolis’s performance at home.
Asteras Tripolis, at home, had 7 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 59.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Asteras Tripolis was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

04 Apr

Aris

A

0

2

L

U

N

21 Mar

Panathinaikos

H

2

2

D

O

G

14 Mar

Giannina

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Mar

Atromitos

A

1

1

D

U

G

27 Feb

PAOK

H

2

1

W

O

G

20 Feb

AEK

A

2

2

D

O

G

13 Feb

Lamia

H

0

0

D

U

N

07 Feb

Volos NFC

A

1

0

W

U

N


PAOK in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, PAOK scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, PAOK in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, PAOK scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at PAOK’s performance as a guest.
PAOK, as a guest, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 42.9% of the total available.
In these matches, PAOK scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of PAOK was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

04 Apr

Panathinaikos

A

0

3

L

O

N

21 Mar

AEK

H

3

1

W

O

G

14 Mar

Panathinaikos

A

1

2

L

O

G

07 Mar

Aris

H

2

2

D

O

G

27 Feb

Asteras Tripolis

A

1

2

L

O

G

21 Feb

Lamia

H

4

0

W

O

N

15 Feb

Giannina

A

2

0

W

U

N

07 Feb

Apollon

H

2

2

D

O

G


The form score for the Asteras Tripolis is -0.222 and for the PAOK is -0.2.
The home dynamic for the Asteras Tripolis is 0.3 and the dynamic as a guest for the PAOK is 0.266.
The offensive ability for the Asteras Tripolis is 0.142 and for the PAOK is 0.539.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Asteras Tripolis is -1 and for the PAOK is -0.726.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Asteras Tripolis and the red line for guest team, PAOK.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Asteras Tripolis

35%

28%

29%

7%

PAOK

46%

33%

11%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Asteras Tripolis to score 0.68 goals and PAOK to score 1.8 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the guest team PAOK to win by 1.12 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Asteras Tripolis to score 1.08 goals and PAOK to score 0.84 goals.
So, we expect a total of 1.92 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.24 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

6.10

0-1

2.42

1

4.02

2-3

2.16

2

3.72

4+

8.00

3

5.13

Ov 1.5

1.70

4

12.20

Un 1.5

2.42

5

27.78

Ov 2.5

3.12

6+

142.86

Un 2.5

1.47

Gg

2.87

Ov 3.5

8.00

NoG

1.53

Un 3.5

1.14

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-