# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Volos NFC vs Panetolikos at 10 April 2021**** Atromitos vs Larisa at 10 April 2021**** Apollon vs OFI Crete at 10 April 2021**** Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK at 11 April 2021**** Aris vs AEK at 11 April 2021**** Giannina vs Lamia at 12 April 2021**

###
Volos NFC vs Panetolikos at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Volos NFC** and **Panetolikos** for **Super League (Greece)**, which will take place on **10 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Volos NFC |
2.22 |
2.29 |
-1.4 |

Draw |
3.09 |
3.36 |
-2.6 |

Panetolikos |
3.45 |
3.77 |
-2.5 |

Over 2.5 |
2.26 |
2.87 |
-9.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.63 |
1.53 |
4.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Under 2.5 (4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Volos NFC** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Volos NFC scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Volos NFC** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Volos NFC scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Volos NFC’s performance** at home**.

Volos NFC,** at home**, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 40.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Volos NFC scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Volos NFC was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Apr |
Lamia |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Mar |
OFI Crete |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

14 Mar |
AEK |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Mar |
Panetolikos |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Mar |
Olympiakos |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Feb |
Apollon |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
OFI Crete |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Feb |
Asteras Tripolis |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Panetolikos** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Panetolikos** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Panetolikos’s performance** as a guest**.

Panetolikos,** as a guest**, had no wins, 6 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 14.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Panetolikos was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Apr |
Larisa |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Mar |
Lamia |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

14 Mar |
Apollon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Mar |
Volos NFC |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Feb |
Larisa |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

22 Feb |
Panathinaikos |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Aris |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

08 Feb |
Giannina |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Volos NFC** is **0** and for the **Panetolikos** is **-0.207.**

The home dynamic for the **Volos NFC** is **-0.209** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Panetolikos** is **-0.614.**

The offensive ability for the **Volos NFC** is **0.202** and for the **Panetolikos** is **-0.191.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Volos NFC** is **0.172** and for the **Panetolikos** is **-0.407.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Volos NFC** and the red line for guest team, **Panetolikos. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Volos NFC |
37% |
26% |
21% |
16% |

Panetolikos |
46% |
33% |
14% |
6% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Volos NFC** to score **1.28 ** goals and **Panetolikos** to score **0.95 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.23** goals in the game and the home team **Volos NFC ** to win by **0.33** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Volos NFC** to score **1.16 ** goals and **Panetolikos** to score **0.8 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **1.96** goals in the game and the home team **Volos NFC ** to win by **0.36** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
5.81 |
0-1 |
2.40 |

1 |
4.10 |
2-3 |
2.27 |

2 |
4.24 |
4+ |
6.94 |

3 |
4.90 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.71 |

4 |
10.10 |
Un 1.5 |
2.40 |

5 |
28.57 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.87 |

6+ |
100.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.53 |

Gg |
2.96 |
Ov 3.5 |
6.94 |

NoG |
1.51 |
Un 3.5 |
1.17 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.47 |
2.42 |
3.35 |

2-3 goals |
1.82 |
5.12 |
3.93 |

4+ goals |
1.92 |
3.60 |
4.97 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.84 |
4.63 |
4.14 |

Un 1.5 |
3.47 |
2.42 |
3.35 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.59 |
8.70 |
3.91 |

Un 2.5 |
2.99 |
2.53 |
3.70 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.92 |
3.60 |
4.97 |

Un 3.5 |
2.36 |
3.32 |
3.63 |

Goal-Goal |
2.32 |
2.68 |
5.12 |

No Goal |
2.27 |
3.85 |
3.33 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.73 |
6.30 |
3.82 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.60 |
3.85 |
3.22 |

####
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###
Atromitos vs Larisa at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Atromitos** and **Larisa** for **Super League (Greece)**, which will take place on **10 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Atromitos |
1.95 |
1.93 |
0.5 |

Draw |
2.98 |
3.56 |
-5.5 |

Larisa |
4.51 |
5.00 |
-2.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.40 |
2.74 |
-5.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.58 |
1.57 |
0.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Atromitos, Under 2.5 (0.5 %, 0.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Atromitos** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Atromitos scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Atromitos** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Atromitos scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Atromitos’s performance** at home**.

Atromitos,** at home**, had 4 wins, 6 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 42.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Atromitos scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Atromitos was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Apr |
Apollon |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Mar |
Giannina |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Mar |
Lamia |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Asteras Tripolis |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Feb |
Aris |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

20 Feb |
Larisa |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Feb |
Apollon |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Panathinaikos |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Larisa** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Larisa** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Larisa** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Larisa** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Larisa’s performance** as a guest**.

Larisa,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 26.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Larisa scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Larisa was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Apr |
Panetolikos |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Mar |
Apollon |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

14 Mar |
Olympiakos |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Mar |
Lamia |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
OFI Crete |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Feb |
Panetolikos |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Feb |
Lamia |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Atromitos |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **Atromitos** is **-0.333** and for the **Larisa** is **0.133.**

The home dynamic for the **Atromitos** is **-0.155** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Larisa** is **-0.71.**

The offensive ability for the **Atromitos** is **-0.176** and for the **Larisa** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Atromitos** is **-0.586** and for the **Larisa** is **-0.356.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Atromitos** and the red line for guest team, **Larisa. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Atromitos |
27% |
35% |
18% |
20% |

Larisa |
50% |
34% |
13% |
4% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Atromitos** to score **1.37 ** goals and **Larisa** to score **0.78 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.15** goals in the game and the home team **Atromitos ** to win by **0.59** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Atromitos** to score **1.32 ** goals and **Larisa** to score **0.71 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.03** goals in the game and the home team **Atromitos ** to win by **0.61** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
7.58 |
0-1 |
2.54 |

1 |
3.82 |
2-3 |
2.18 |

2 |
4.15 |
4+ |
6.85 |

3 |
4.61 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.66 |

4 |
9.52 |
Un 1.5 |
2.54 |

5 |
30.30 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.75 |

6+ |
125.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.57 |

Gg |
2.72 |
Ov 3.5 |
6.85 |

NoG |
1.59 |
Un 3.5 |
1.17 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.28 |
2.98 |
4.43 |

2-3 goals |
1.82 |
3.91 |
5.15 |

4+ goals |
1.55 |
4.71 |
6.95 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.75 |
4.08 |
5.49 |

Un 1.5 |
2.28 |
2.98 |
4.43 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.42 |
11.71 |
4.78 |

Un 2.5 |
2.41 |
2.55 |
5.16 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.55 |
4.71 |
6.95 |

Un 3.5 |
2.00 |
3.42 |
4.79 |

Goal-Goal |
2.37 |
2.49 |
5.66 |

No Goal |
1.73 |
4.77 |
4.70 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.62 |
8.10 |
3.86 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.97 |
4.77 |
4.21 |

####
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###
Apollon vs OFI Crete at 10 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Apollon** and **OFI Crete** for **Super League (Greece)**, which will take place on **10 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Apollon |
2.46 |
2.51 |
-0.8 |

Draw |
2.86 |
3.48 |
-6.2 |

OFI Crete |
3.13 |
3.17 |
-0.4 |

Over 2.5 |
2.14 |
2.53 |
-7.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.67 |
1.65 |
0.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Under 2.5 (0.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Apollon** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Apollon scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Apollon** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Apollon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Apollon’s performance** at home**.

Apollon,** at home**, had 4 wins, one draw, 9 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 31.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Apollon scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Apollon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Apr |
Atromitos |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Mar |
Larisa |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Mar |
Panetolikos |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

08 Mar |
AEK |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
OFI Crete |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Feb |
Volos NFC |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

18 Feb |
Lamia |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Atromitos |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**OFI Crete** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, OFI Crete scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **OFI Crete** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, OFI Crete scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at OFI Crete’s performance** as a guest**.

OFI Crete,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 26.2% of the total available.

In these matches, OFI Crete scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of OFI Crete was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Apr |
Giannina |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Volos NFC |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

14 Mar |
Aris |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Larisa |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Apollon |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Feb |
Giannina |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Volos NFC |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Feb |
Olympiakos |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

The form score for the **Apollon** is **-0.163** and for the **OFI Crete** is **-0.422.**

The home dynamic for the **Apollon** is **-0.764** and the dynamic as a guest for the **OFI Crete** is **-0.44.**

The offensive ability for the **Apollon** is **-0.116** and for the **OFI Crete** is **-0.157.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Apollon** is **-0.586** and for the **OFI Crete** is **-0.63.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Apollon** and the red line for guest team, **OFI Crete. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Apollon |
30% |
37% |
20% |
14% |

OFI Crete |
36% |
33% |
25% |
6% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Apollon** to score **1.24 ** goals and **OFI Crete** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.3** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.18** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Apollon** to score **1.18 ** goals and **OFI Crete** to score **1.01 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.19** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.17** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.43 |
0-1 |
2.97 |

1 |
4.33 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
3.75 |
4+ |
5.88 |

3 |
4.46 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.51 |

4 |
8.55 |
Un 1.5 |
2.97 |

5 |
22.22 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.54 |

6+ |
125.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.66 |

Gg |
2.22 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.88 |

NoG |
1.82 |
Un 3.5 |
1.21 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.55 |
3.18 |
3.40 |

2-3 goals |
2.64 |
4.02 |
2.68 |

4+ goals |
2.12 |
2.93 |
5.31 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.48 |
3.67 |
3.07 |

Un 1.5 |
2.55 |
3.18 |
3.40 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |
6.79 |
2.79 |

Un 2.5 |
2.98 |
2.65 |
3.49 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.12 |
2.93 |
5.31 |

Un 3.5 |
2.60 |
3.63 |
2.94 |

Goal-Goal |
3.08 |
2.50 |
3.63 |

No Goal |
2.17 |
5.17 |
2.88 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.25 |
5.66 |
2.65 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.37 |
5.17 |
2.79 |

####
Go to Top

###
Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK at 11 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Asteras Tripolis** and **PAOK** for **Super League (Greece)**, which will take place on **11 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Asteras Tripolis |
5.85 |
2.34 |
25.6 |

Draw |
4.01 |
3.37 |
4.7 |

PAOK |
1.52 |
3.64 |
-38.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.96 |
3.13 |
-19.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.85 |
1.47 |
14.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Asteras Tripolis, Draw, Under 2.5 (25.6 %, 4.7 %, 14 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Asteras Tripolis** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Asteras Tripolis** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Asteras Tripolis’s performance** at home**.

Asteras Tripolis,** at home**, had 7 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 59.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Asteras Tripolis was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

04 Apr |
Aris |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Mar |
Panathinaikos |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

14 Mar |
Giannina |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Atromitos |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Feb |
PAOK |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
AEK |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Lamia |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

07 Feb |
Volos NFC |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**PAOK** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, PAOK scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **PAOK** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, PAOK scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at PAOK’s performance** as a guest**.

PAOK,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 42.9% of the total available.

In these matches, PAOK scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of PAOK was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

04 Apr |
Panathinaikos |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

21 Mar |
AEK |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

14 Mar |
Panathinaikos |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Mar |
Aris |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Asteras Tripolis |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Feb |
Lamia |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

15 Feb |
Giannina |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Feb |
Apollon |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Asteras Tripolis** is **-0.222** and for the **PAOK** is **-0.2.**

The home dynamic for the **Asteras Tripolis** is **0.3** and the dynamic as a guest for the **PAOK** is **0.266.**

The offensive ability for the **Asteras Tripolis** is **0.142** and for the **PAOK** is **0.539.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Asteras Tripolis** is **-1** and for the **PAOK** is **-0.726.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Asteras Tripolis** and the red line for guest team, **PAOK. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Asteras Tripolis |
35% |
28% |
29% |
7% |

PAOK |
46% |
33% |
11% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Asteras Tripolis** to score **0.68 ** goals and **PAOK** to score **1.8 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.48** goals in the game and the guest team **PAOK ** to win by **1.12** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Asteras Tripolis** to score **1.08 ** goals and **PAOK** to score **0.84 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **1.92** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.24** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
6.10 |
0-1 |
2.42 |

1 |
4.02 |
2-3 |
2.16 |

2 |
3.72 |
4+ |
8.00 |

3 |
5.13 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.70 |

4 |
12.20 |
Un 1.5 |
2.42 |

5 |
27.78 |
Ov 2.5 |
3.12 |

6+ |
142.86 |
Un 2.5 |
1.47 |

Gg |
2.87 |
Ov 3.5 |
8.00 |

NoG |
1.53 |
Un 3.5 |
1.14 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |