2021 04 09 Turkey Super League



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Bursaspor vs Fenerbahce at 11 April 2021
Turk Telekom vs Gaziantep at 11 April 2021
Afyon Belediye vs OGM Ormanspor at 11 April 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Bursaspor vs Fenerbahce at 11 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bursaspor and Fenerbahce for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 11 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Bursaspor

3

3.97

Fenerbahce

1.37

1.34

Bursaspor HC

+6.5

7.00

Fenerbahce HC

-6.5

-7.00

Point Line

162.5

161.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bursaspor are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 4

H

Anadolu Efes

L

76

95

11

16

L 1

82

86

Mar 27

A

Pinar Karsiyaka

W

85

84

11

15

W 4

90

82

Mar 21

H

Afyon

W

81

75

10

15

W 3

76

75

Mar 14

A

Buyukcekmece

W

73

68

9

15

W 2

70

68

Mar 7

H

Bahcesehir

W

67

64

8

15

W 1

67

64

Feb 27

A

Turk Telekom

L

82

83

7

15

L 3

80

88

Feb 10

H

Darussafaka

L

68

70

7

14

L 2

70

69

Feb 7

A

Tofas

L

77

84

7

13

L 1

77

79

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Fenerbahce are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 4

H

Pinar Karsiyaka

W

117

59

21

6

W 6

124

57

Mar 28

A

Afyon

W

97

87

20

6

W 5

92

86

Mar 21

H

Buyukcekmece

W

81

70

19

6

W 4

77

70

Mar 14

A

Bahcesehir

W

78

61

18

6

W 3

78

62

Mar 7

H

Turk Telekom

W

99

77

17

6

W 2

97

82

Feb 28

A

Darussafaka

W

66

64

16

6

W 1

68

63

Feb 10

H

Tofas

L

81

84

15

6

L 1

81

79

Feb 7

A

Socar Spor

W

80

67

15

5

W 1

80

68

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bursaspor and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Fenerbahce.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Fenerbahce and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bursaspor.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Bursaspor (in the first graph) and by Fenerbahce in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Bursaspor will expected to score 77 points and the Fenerbahce 85 points. The total points line estimated to be at 162.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Bursaspor

Fenerbahce

FG%

0.53

0.60

ASS

18.90

21.40

DRB

20.70

24.30

AST-TO

1.63

1.73

TRB

28.70

32.10

FTM

12.30

13.60

BL

2.40

2.20

FTA

16.80

17.30

PF-Fewer

21.70

17.00

ST

6.00

6.30

TO-Fewer

11.60

12.40

Ftper

0.73

0.79

ORBper

0.39

0.32

ORB

8.00

7.80


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Turk Telekom vs Gaziantep at 11 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Turk Telekom and Gaziantep for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 11 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Turk Telekom

1.42

2.77

Gaziantep

2.8

1.57

Turk Telekom HC

-5.5

4.50

Gaziantep HC

+5.5

-4.50

Point Line

157.5

154.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Turk Telekom are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 3

A

Fethiye

L

81

82

15

12

L 2

75

87

Mar 28

H

Besiktas

L

85

94

15

11

L 1

85

90

Mar 20

A

Ormanspor

W

97

90

15

10

W 2

89

97

Mar 14

H

Galatasaray

W

81

77

14

10

W 1

77

76

Mar 7

A

Fenerbahce

L

77

99

13

10

L 1

83

91

Feb 27

H

Bursaspor

W

83

82

13

9

W 1

81

85

Feb 9

A

Pinar Karsiyaka

L

69

80

12

9

L 1

73

78

Feb 6

H

Afyon

W

89

86

12

8

W 3

84

86

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Gaziantep are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 3

H

Darussafaka

L

76

82

13

14

L 2

79

81

Mar 27

A

Tofas

L

72

84

13

13

L 1

72

79

Mar 21

H

Socar Spor

W

76

64

13

12

W 1

76

65

Mar 14

A

Anadolu Efes

L

63

102

12

12

L 1

68

92

Mar 7

A

Fethiye

W

90

60

12

11

W 1

83

64

Feb 28

H

Besiktas

L

77

84

11

11

L 1

77

81

Feb 11

A

Ormanspor

W

82

81

11

10

W 4

76

88

Feb 6

H

Galatasaray

W

68

61

10

10

W 3

65

60

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Turk Telekom and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Gaziantep.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Gaziantep and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Turk Telekom.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Turk Telekom (in the first graph) and by Gaziantep in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Turk Telekom will expected to score 79 points and the Gaziantep 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 157.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Turk Telekom

Gaziantep

FG%

0.54

0.52

ASS

17.80

20.60

DRB

20.90

23.80

AST-TO

1.78

1.79

TRB

27.70

33.20

FTM

13.40

12.10

BL

1.30

2.60

FTA

17.50

17.80

PF-Fewer

17.40

20.40

ST

5.10

6.80

TO-Fewer

10.00

11.50

Ftper

0.76

0.68

ORBper

0.33

0.39

ORB

6.90

9.40


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Afyon Belediye vs OGM Ormanspor at 11 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Afyon Belediye and OGM Ormanspor for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 11 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Afyon Belediye

1.37

1.55

OGM Ormanspor

3

2.83

Afyon Belediye HC

-6.5

-4.50

OGM Ormanspor HC

+6.5

4.50

Point Line

165.5

162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Afyon Belediye are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 4

A

Galatasaray

L

70

110

12

15

L 4

67

108

Mar 28

H

Fenerbahce

L

87

97

12

14

L 3

94

89

Mar 21

A

Bursaspor

L

75

81

12

13

L 2

73

84

Mar 13

H

Pinar Karsiyaka

L

69

75

12

12

L 1

73

73

Mar 7

H

Anadolu Efes

W

103

85

12

11

W 1

112

77

Feb 28

A

Buyukcekmece

L

83

95

11

11

L 3

79

96

Feb 9

H

Bahcesehir

L

77

89

11

10

L 2

77

90

Feb 6

A

Turk Telekom

L

86

89

11

9

L 1

84

94

The latest results and the adjusted scores of OGM Ormanspor are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 3

H

Buyukcekmece

L

74

85

6

21

L 4

70

85

Mar 27

A

Bahcesehir

L

65

92

6

20

L 3

65

93

Mar 20

H

Turk Telekom

L

90

97

6

19

L 2

88

103

Mar 13

A

Darussafaka

L

68

90

6

18

L 1

70

89

Mar 6

H

Tofas

W

77

76

6

17

W 1

77

72

Feb 27

A

Socar Spor

L

76

83

5

17

L 7

76

84

Feb 11

H

Gaziantep

L

81

82

5

16

L 6

88

88

Feb 7

A

Fethiye

L

89

98

5

15

L 5

82

104

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Afyon Belediye and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by OGM Ormanspor.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by OGM Ormanspor and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Afyon Belediye.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Afyon Belediye (in the first graph) and by OGM Ormanspor in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Afyon Belediye will expected to score 85 points and the OGM Ormanspor 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 167.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Afyon Belediye

OGM Ormanspor

FG%

0.54

0.52

ASS

20.30

17.60

DRB

22.10

20.10

AST-TO

1.42

1.56

TRB

32.00

27.60

FTM

11.60

14.50

BL

2.60

2.50

FTA

15.40

19.60

PF-Fewer

19.30

16.10

ST

7.10

4.60

TO-Fewer

14.30

11.30

Ftper

0.75

0.74

ORBper

0.45

0.37

ORB

9.90

7.40


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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