2021 04 13 Championship (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Sheffield Weds vs Swansea at 13 April 2021
Huddersfield vs Bournemouth at 13 April 2021


Sheffield Weds vs Swansea at 13 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sheffield Weds and Swansea for Championship (England), which will take place on 13 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sheffield Weds

2.92

2.56

4.8

Draw

3.18

3.60

-3.7

Swansea

2.53

3.01

-6.3

Over 2.5

2.35

2.26

1.7

Under 2.5

1.60

1.80

-6.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Sheffield Weds, Over 2.5 (4.8 %, 1.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sheffield Weds in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sheffield Weds in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sheffield Weds’s performance at home.
Sheffield Weds, at home, had 7 wins, 6 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 47.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sheffield Weds was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

QPR

A

1

4

L

O

G

05 Apr

Cardiff

H

5

0

W

O

N

02 Apr

Watford

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Barnsley

A

2

1

W

O

G

17 Mar

Huddersfield

H

1

1

D

U

G

14 Mar

Norwich

H

1

2

L

O

G

06 Mar

Reading

A

0

3

L

O

N

03 Mar

Rotherham

H

1

2

L

O

G


Swansea in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Swansea scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Swansea in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Swansea scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Swansea’s performance as a guest.
Swansea, as a guest, had 10 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 34 points, 56.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Swansea scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Swansea was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Millwall

A

3

0

W

O

N

05 Apr

Preston

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Apr

Birmingham

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Cardiff

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Mar

Bournemouth

A

0

3

L

O

N

13 Mar

Luton

A

1

0

W

U

N

09 Mar

Blackburn

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Mar

Middlesbrough

H

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Sheffield Weds is -0.127 and for the Swansea is -0.6.
The home dynamic for the Sheffield Weds is 0.152 and the dynamic as a guest for the Swansea is 0.241.
The offensive ability for the Sheffield Weds is 0.478 and for the Swansea is -0.967.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Sheffield Weds is -0.482 and for the Swansea is -0.451.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sheffield Weds and the red line for guest team, Swansea.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sheffield Weds

31%

34%

17%

19%

Swansea

35%

34%

17%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sheffield Weds to score 1.03 goals and Swansea to score 1.14 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.18 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.11 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sheffield Weds to score 1.23 goals and Swansea to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.13 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.17

0-1

3.01

1

4.48

2-3

2.23

2

4.42

4+

4.52

3

4.48

Ov 1.5

1.49

4

7.19

Un 1.5

3.01

5

18.18

Ov 2.5

2.25

6+

37.04

Un 2.5

1.79

Gg

2.23

Ov 3.5

4.52

NoG

1.81

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.84

3.05

3.13

2-3 goals

2.51

3.90

2.90

4+ goals

2.35

4.02

3.07

Ov 1.5

2.45

3.94

2.95

Un 1.5

2.84

3.05

3.13

Ov 2.5

2.07

8.07

2.55

Un 2.5

3.19

2.49

3.51

Ov 3.5

2.35

4.02

3.07

Un 3.5

2.64

3.49

2.99

Goal-Goal

2.99

2.64

3.48

No Goal

2.30

5.07

2.71

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.23

6.07

2.59

NG+Un 2.5

2.53

5.07

2.79


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Huddersfield vs Bournemouth at 13 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Huddersfield and Bournemouth for Championship (England), which will take place on 13 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Huddersfield

4.35

2.90

11.5

Draw

3.60

3.76

-1.2

Bournemouth

1.83

2.57

-15.7

Over 2.5

1.99

2.13

-3.3

Under 2.5

1.83

1.89

-1.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Huddersfield (11.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Huddersfield in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Huddersfield in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Huddersfield’s performance at home.
Huddersfield, at home, had 8 wins, 6 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 30 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Huddersfield was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Rotherham

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Apr

Norwich

A

0

7

L

O

N

03 Apr

Brentford

H

1

1

D

U

G

17 Mar

Sheffield Weds

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

QPR

A

1

0

W

U

N

05 Mar

Cardiff

H

0

0

D

U

N

02 Mar

Birmingham

H

1

1

D

U

G

27 Feb

Preston

A

0

3

L

O

N


Bournemouth in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Bournemouth scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bournemouth in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Bournemouth scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bournemouth’s performance as a guest.
Bournemouth, as a guest, had 6 wins, 8 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 45.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Bournemouth scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bournemouth was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Coventry

H

4

1

W

O

G

05 Apr

Blackburn

A

2

0

W

U

N

02 Apr

Middlesbrough

H

3

1

W

O

G

16 Mar

Swansea

H

3

0

W

O

N

13 Mar

Barnsley

H

2

3

L

O

G

06 Mar

Preston

A

1

1

D

U

G

03 Mar

Bristol City

A

2

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

Watford

H

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Huddersfield is 0.033 and for the Bournemouth is 0.62.
The home dynamic for the Huddersfield is 0.169 and the dynamic as a guest for the Bournemouth is 0.108.
The offensive ability for the Huddersfield is -0.556 and for the Bournemouth is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Huddersfield is 0.347 and for the Bournemouth is -0.42.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Huddersfield and the red line for guest team, Bournemouth.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Huddersfield

34%

30%

20%

16%

Bournemouth

31%

29%

24%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Huddersfield to score 0.86 goals and Bournemouth to score 1.6 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and the guest team Bournemouth to win by 0.74 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Huddersfield to score 1.17 goals and Bournemouth to score 1.25 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.08 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.35

0-1

3.36

1

5.24

2-3

2.15

2

4.31

4+

4.22

3

4.29

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

7.04

Un 1.5

3.36

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

2.13

6+

40.00

Un 2.5

1.89

Gg

2.21

Ov 3.5

4.22

NoG

1.82

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.24

2.79

3.01

2-3 goals

2.75

5.47

2.20

4+ goals

2.86

3.16

3.00

Ov 1.5

2.79

4.39

2.42

Un 1.5

3.24

2.79

3.01

Ov 2.5

2.49

6.27

2.28

Un 2.5

3.42

2.76

2.90

Ov 3.5

2.86

3.16

3.00

Un 3.5

2.92

3.97

2.46

Goal-Goal

3.21

2.82

2.99

No Goal

2.70

5.12

2.30

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.60

4.89

2.43

NG+Un 2.5

2.87

5.12

2.43


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top



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