2021 04 13 Conference (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Chesterfield vs Boreham Wood at 13 April 2021
Dag and Red vs Eastleigh at 13 April 2021
Halifax vs Wrexham at 13 April 2021
Solihull vs Notts County at 13 April 2021
Stockport vs King’s Lynn at 13 April 2021
Sutton vs Torquay at 13 April 2021
Weymouth vs Aldershot at 13 April 2021
Woking vs Bromley at 13 April 2021


Chesterfield vs Boreham Wood at 13 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Chesterfield and Boreham Wood for Conference (England), which will take place on 13 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Chesterfield

2.07

2.08

-0.2

Draw

3.33

3.92

-4.5

Boreham Wood

3.67

3.79

-0.9

Over 2.5

2.20

1.97

5.3

Under 2.5

1.70

2.03

-9.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Over 2.5 (5.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Chesterfield in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Chesterfield in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Chesterfield scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Chesterfield’s performance at home.
Chesterfield, at home, had 8 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 59.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Chesterfield was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

King’s Lynn

A

2

1

W

O

G

02 Apr

Eastleigh

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Mar

Weymouth

H

1

0

W

U

N

23 Mar

Aldershot

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Barnet

A

2

0

W

U

N

16 Mar

Sutton

H

0

1

L

U

N

13 Mar

Maidenhead

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Mar

Yeovil

H

3

0

W

O

N


Boreham Wood in the last six matches had one win, 5 draws, no defeats.and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Boreham Wood scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Boreham Wood in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Boreham Wood scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Boreham Wood’s performance as a guest.
Boreham Wood, as a guest, had 6 wins, 7 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 49.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Boreham Wood scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Boreham Wood was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Wealdstone

H

3

1

W

O

G

05 Apr

Hartlepool

H

2

2

D

O

G

02 Apr

Sutton

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Mar

Aldershot

A

3

3

D

O

G

16 Mar

Notts County

H

2

2

D

O

G

13 Mar

Torquay

H

0

0

D

U

N

09 Mar

Woking

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Dag and Red

A

2

2

D

O

G


The form score for the Chesterfield is 1 and for the Boreham Wood is 0.12.
The home dynamic for the Chesterfield is 0.473 and the dynamic as a guest for the Boreham Wood is 0.251.
The offensive ability for the Chesterfield is 0.589 and for the Boreham Wood is 0.093.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Chesterfield is 0.865 and for the Boreham Wood is -0.523.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Chesterfield and the red line for guest team, Boreham Wood.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Chesterfield

23%

28%

26%

23%

Boreham Wood

34%

36%

20%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Chesterfield to score 1.37 goals and Boreham Wood to score 0.92 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and the home team Chesterfield to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Chesterfield to score 1.48 goals and Boreham Wood to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and the home team Chesterfield to win by 0.41 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.99

0-1

3.91

1

5.59

2-3

2.05

2

4.24

4+

3.88

3

3.98

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.13

Un 1.5

3.91

5

13.89

Ov 2.5

1.96

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.03

Gg

1.95

Ov 3.5

3.88

NoG

2.05

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.69

3.32

3.05

2-3 goals

1.91

4.68

3.80

4+ goals

1.98

3.44

4.87

Ov 1.5

1.94

4.16

4.12

Un 1.5

2.69

3.32

3.05

Ov 2.5

1.70

6.79

3.80

Un 2.5

2.73

2.72

3.76

Ov 3.5

1.98

3.44

4.87

Un 3.5

2.12

4.10

3.50

Goal-Goal

2.30

2.87

4.62

No Goal

1.90

6.34

3.17

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.83

5.45

3.68

NG+Un 2.5

2.16

6.34

2.96


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Dag and Red vs Eastleigh at 13 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Dag and Red and Eastleigh for Conference (England), which will take place on 13 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Dag and Red

2.39

2.52

-2.2

Draw

3.17

3.69

-4.4

Eastleigh

3.04

3.01

0.3

Over 2.5

2.34

2.00

7.3

Under 2.5

1.59

2.00

-12.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Eastleigh, Over 2.5 (0.3 %, 7.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Dag and Red in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Dag and Red scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Dag and Red in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Dag and Red scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Dag and Red’s performance at home.
Dag and Red, at home, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Dag and Red scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Dag and Red was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Bromley

A

0

1

L

U

N

05 Apr

Aldershot

H

0

2

L

U

N

02 Apr

Hartlepool

A

1

2

L

O

G

27 Mar

Torquay

H

1

0

W

U

N

23 Mar

Hartlepool

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Altrincham

A

1

0

W

U

N

16 Mar

Weymouth

H

1

1

D

U

G

09 Mar

Maidenhead

H

2

1

W

O

G


Eastleigh in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Eastleigh scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Eastleigh in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Eastleigh scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Eastleigh’s performance as a guest.
Eastleigh, as a guest, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Eastleigh scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Eastleigh was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Woking

H

0

0

D

U

N

05 Apr

Maidenhead

A

1

0

W

U

N

02 Apr

Chesterfield

H

0

1

L

U

N

27 Mar

King’s Lynn

A

1

2

L

O

G

23 Mar

Stockport

A

0

3

L

O

N

20 Mar

Halifax

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Mar

Wrexham

A

2

2

D

O

G

13 Mar

Hartlepool

A

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Dag and Red is -0.437 and for the Eastleigh is -0.37.
The home dynamic for the Dag and Red is -0.07 and the dynamic as a guest for the Eastleigh is -0.179.
The offensive ability for the Dag and Red is -0.589 and for the Eastleigh is -0.53.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Dag and Red is -0.171 and for the Eastleigh is 0.067.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Dag and Red and the red line for guest team, Eastleigh.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Dag and Red

23%

36%

23%

17%

Eastleigh

29%

35%

23%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Dag and Red to score 1.18 goals and Eastleigh to score 1 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.17 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Dag and Red to score 1.33 goals and Eastleigh to score 1.21 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.93

0-1

3.95

1

5.38

2-3

2.03

2

4.03

4+

3.95

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.21

Un 1.5

3.95

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

2.01

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

2.00

Gg

1.83

Ov 3.5

3.95

NoG

2.21

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.43

3.78

3.09

2-3 goals

2.52

3.88

2.90

4+ goals

2.64

3.33

3.12

Ov 1.5

2.55

3.67

2.97

Un 1.5

2.43

3.78

3.09

Ov 2.5

2.21

6.55

2.53

Un 2.5

2.93

2.58

3.68

Ov 3.5

2.64

3.33

3.12

Un 3.5

2.49

3.85

2.96

Goal-Goal

3.07

2.69

3.31

No Goal

2.08

6.76

2.70

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.35

5.51

2.54

NG+Un 2.5

2.19

6.76

2.75


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Halifax vs Wrexham at 13 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Halifax and Wrexham for Conference (England), which will take place on 13 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Halifax

2.28

2.22

1.2

Draw

3.16

3.83

-5.5

Wrexham

3.02

3.46

-4.2

Over 2.5

2.20

1.99

4.8

Under 2.5

1.63

2.01

-11.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Halifax, Over 2.5 (1.2 %, 4.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Halifax in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Halifax in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Halifax’s performance at home.
Halifax, at home, had 7 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 59.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Halifax was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Altrincham

A

1

0

W

U

N

05 Apr

Weymouth

H

3

2

W

O

G

27 Mar

Sutton

H

2

2

D

O

G

20 Mar

Eastleigh

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 Mar

Aldershot

H

1

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Solihull

H

1

0

W

U

N

09 Mar

Notts County

A

2

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Wealdstone

A

2

1

W

O

G


Wrexham in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wrexham in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham didn’t score to any of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Wrexham’s performance as a guest.
Wrexham, as a guest, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 43.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wrexham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Stockport

H

0

3

L

O

N

05 Apr

Torquay

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Apr

Notts County

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Mar

Bromley

H

3

0

W

O

N

16 Mar

Eastleigh

H

2

2

D

O

G

13 Mar

Weymouth

H

2

0

W

U

N

09 Mar

Barnet

A

2

0

W

U

N

06 Mar

Sutton

A

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Halifax is 0.718 and for the Wrexham is -0.5.
The home dynamic for the Halifax is 0.506 and the dynamic as a guest for the Wrexham is -0.077.
The offensive ability for the Halifax is 0.522 and for the Wrexham is -0.639.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Halifax is 0.347 and for the Wrexham is -0.554.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Halifax and the red line for guest team, Wrexham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Halifax

24%

30%

25%

21%

Wrexham

32%

36%

21%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Halifax to score 1.24 goals and Wrexham to score 1.01 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Halifax to score 1.42 goals and Wrexham to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Halifax to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.99

0-1

3.86

1

5.49

2-3

2.06

2

4.18

4+

3.92

3

4.05

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.21

Un 1.5

3.86

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

1.99

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.01

Gg

1.93

Ov 3.5

3.92

NoG

2.07

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.73

3.36

2.98

2-3 goals

2.07

4.50

3.40

4+ goals

2.14

3.36

4.25

Ov 1.5

2.09

4.03

3.65

Un 1.5

2.73

3.36

2.98

Ov 2.5

1.83

6.61

3.32

Un 2.5

2.86

2.69

3.58

Ov 3.5

2.14

3.36

4.25

Un 3.5

2.26

4.03

3.24

Goal-Goal

2.47

2.81

4.17

No Goal

2.01

6.27

2.91

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.96

5.38

3.30

NG+Un 2.5

2.24

6.27

2.81


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Solihull vs Notts County at 13 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Solihull and Notts County for Conference (England), which will take place on 13 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Solihull

2.57

2.38

3.1

Draw

3.31

3.72

-3.3

Notts County

2.73

3.23

-5.7

Over 2.5

2.21

1.98

5.3

Under 2.5

1.70

2.02

-9.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Solihull, Over 2.5 (3.1 %, 5.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Solihull in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Solihull scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Solihull in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Solihull scored in 2 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Solihull’s performance at home.
Solihull, at home, had 8 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 61.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Solihull scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Solihull was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Apr

Sutton

H

0

0

D

U

N

02 Apr

Barnet

A

2

0

W

U

N

30 Mar

Wealdstone

H

3

0

W

O

N

27 Mar

Aldershot

H

1

0

W

U

N

23 Mar

Torquay

A

0

2

L

U

N

20 Mar

Bromley

A

0

1

L

U

N

13 Mar

Halifax

A

0

1

L

U

N

09 Mar

Stockport

H

0

5

L

O

N


Notts County in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Notts County in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Notts County’s performance as a guest.
Notts County, as a guest, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 54.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Notts County was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Hartlepool

A

0

2

L

U

N

05 Apr

Woking

A

4

2

W

O

G

02 Apr

Wrexham

H

1

0

W

U

N

30 Mar

Aldershot

H

0

1

L

U

N

23 Mar

Yeovil

A

2

2

D

O

G

20 Mar

Yeovil

H

2

0

W

U

N

16 Mar

Boreham Wood

A

2

2

D

O

G

13 Mar

Wealdstone

A

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Solihull is 0.38 and for the Notts County is 0.03.
The home dynamic for the Solihull is 0.342 and the dynamic as a guest for the Notts County is 0.446.
The offensive ability for the Solihull is -0.444 and for the Notts County is -0.06.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Solihull is 1 and for the Notts County is -0.523.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Solihull and the red line for guest team, Notts County.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Solihull

22%

36%

24%

18%

Notts County

30%

35%

22%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Solihull to score 1.17 goals and Notts County to score 1.12 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Solihull to score 1.38 goals and Notts County to score 1.18 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.2 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.62

0-1

4.03

1

5.43

2-3

2.02

2

4.05

4+

3.91

3

4.05

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.13

Un 1.5

4.03

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

1.99

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.02

Gg

1.81

Ov 3.5

3.91

NoG

2.24

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-