# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** AFC Wimbledon vs Ipswich at 13 April 2021**** Blackpool vs Accrington at 13 April 2021**** Crewe vs Portsmouth at 13 April 2021**** Doncaster vs Burton at 13 April 2021**** Lincoln vs Milton Keynes Dons at 13 April 2021**** Oxford vs Shrewsbury at 13 April 2021**** Rochdale vs Swindon at 13 April 2021**** Wigan vs Sunderland at 13 April 2021**

###
AFC Wimbledon vs Ipswich at 13 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **AFC Wimbledon** and **Ipswich** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **13 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

AFC Wimbledon |
2.96 |
2.64 |
4.1 |

Draw |
3.13 |
3.82 |
-5.8 |

Ipswich |
2.48 |
2.79 |
-4.5 |

Over 2.5 |
2.37 |
1.93 |
9.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.58 |
2.07 |
-15.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **AFC Wimbledon, Over 2.5 (4.1 %, 9.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**AFC Wimbledon** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, AFC Wimbledon scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **AFC Wimbledon** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, AFC Wimbledon scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at AFC Wimbledon’s performance** at home**.

AFC Wimbledon,** at home**, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 29.6% of the total available.

In these matches, AFC Wimbledon scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of AFC Wimbledon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Apr |
Accrington |
A |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Fleetwood Town |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Plymouth |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Northampton |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Charlton |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

16 Mar |
Wigan |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Mar |
Bristol Rvs |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Burton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Ipswich** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Ipswich scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Ipswich** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Ipswich scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ipswich’s performance** as a guest**.

Ipswich,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 42.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Ipswich scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Ipswich was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Apr |
Milton Keynes Dons |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
Rochdale |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Mar |
Wigan |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Portsmouth |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Mar |
Fleetwood Town |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Plymouth |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Lincoln |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **AFC Wimbledon** is **0.08** and for the **Ipswich** is **-0.3.**

The home dynamic for the **AFC Wimbledon** is **-0.506** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Ipswich** is **-0.169.**

The offensive ability for the **AFC Wimbledon** is **-0.078** and for the **Ipswich** is **-1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **AFC Wimbledon** is **-0.554** and for the **Ipswich** is **0.14.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **AFC Wimbledon** and the red line for guest team, **Ipswich. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

AFC Wimbledon |
29% |
28% |
26% |
18% |

Ipswich |
24% |
37% |
24% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **AFC Wimbledon** to score **1.01 ** goals and **Ipswich** to score **1.14 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.16** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.13** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **AFC Wimbledon** to score **1.32 ** goals and **Ipswich** to score **1.28 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.6** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.04** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.29 |
0-1 |
4.07 |

1 |
5.68 |
2-3 |
2.07 |

2 |
4.24 |
4+ |
3.70 |

3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
5.99 |
Un 1.5 |
4.07 |

5 |
12.82 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.94 |

6+ |
40.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.07 |

Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.70 |

NoG |
2.17 |
Un 3.5 |
1.37 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.57 |
3.51 |
2.30 |

2-3 goals |
2.40 |
4.59 |
2.74 |

4+ goals |
2.50 |
3.14 |
3.55 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.43 |
3.94 |
2.98 |

Un 1.5 |
3.57 |
3.51 |
2.30 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.10 |
6.00 |
2.80 |

Un 2.5 |
3.65 |
2.75 |
2.75 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.50 |
3.14 |
3.55 |

Un 3.5 |
2.70 |
4.16 |
2.57 |

Goal-Goal |
2.65 |
2.81 |
3.76 |

No Goal |
2.63 |
6.59 |
2.13 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.13 |
5.02 |
3.02 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.86 |
6.59 |
2.15 |

####
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###
Blackpool vs Accrington at 13 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Blackpool** and **Accrington** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **13 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Blackpool |
1.73 |
2.13 |
-10.9 |

Draw |
3.73 |
3.79 |
-0.4 |

Accrington |
4.56 |
3.75 |
4.7 |

Over 2.5 |
1.96 |
2.08 |
-2.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.86 |
1.92 |
-1.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Accrington (4.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Blackpool** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Blackpool** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Blackpool** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Blackpool** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Blackpool’s performance** at home**.

Blackpool,** at home**, had 9 wins, 6 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 33 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Blackpool scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Blackpool was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Apr |
Lincoln |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Gillingham |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
Swindon |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Plymouth |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

23 Mar |
Peterboro |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Oxford |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Mar |
Burton |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Mar |
Fleetwood Town |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Accrington** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Accrington scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Accrington** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Accrington scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Accrington’s performance** as a guest**.

Accrington,** as a guest**, had 7 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 43.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Accrington scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Accrington was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Apr |
AFC Wimbledon |
H |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Oxford |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
Burton |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Peterboro |
A |
0 |
7 |
L |
O |
N |

20 Mar |
Wigan |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Mar |
Sunderland |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Milton Keynes Dons |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Mar |
Bristol Rvs |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Blackpool** is **0.897** and for the **Accrington** is **-0.37.**

The home dynamic for the **Blackpool** is **0.63** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Accrington** is **-0.169.**

The offensive ability for the **Blackpool** is **1** and for the **Accrington** is **-0.388.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Blackpool** is **-0.14** and for the **Accrington** is **-0.896.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Blackpool** and the red line for guest team, **Accrington. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Blackpool |
21% |
34% |
27% |
18% |

Accrington |
35% |
36% |
19% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Blackpool** to score **1.66 ** goals and **Accrington** to score **0.82 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.49** goals in the game and the home team **Blackpool ** to win by **0.84** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Blackpool** to score **1.42 ** goals and **Accrington** to score **1.05 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.47** goals in the game and the home team **Blackpool ** to win by **0.37** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.75 |

1 |
5.21 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
3.94 |
4+ |
4.26 |

3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.58 |
Un 1.5 |
3.75 |

5 |
15.62 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.08 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.92 |

Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.26 |

NoG |
2.05 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.30 |
3.56 |
3.51 |

2-3 goals |
1.98 |
4.20 |
3.88 |

4+ goals |
2.33 |
3.31 |
3.73 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.08 |
3.87 |
3.83 |

Un 1.5 |
2.30 |
3.56 |
3.51 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.85 |
6.77 |
3.21 |

Un 2.5 |
2.49 |
2.69 |
4.42 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.33 |
3.31 |
3.73 |

Un 3.5 |
2.08 |
3.95 |
3.74 |

Goal-Goal |
2.62 |
2.71 |
4.02 |

No Goal |
1.79 |
6.51 |
3.49 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |
5.56 |
3.09 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.92 |
6.51 |
3.41 |

####
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###
Crewe vs Portsmouth at 13 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Crewe** and **Portsmouth** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **13 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Crewe |
3.25 |
2.74 |
5.7 |

Draw |
3.39 |
3.76 |
-2.9 |

Portsmouth |
2.19 |
2.70 |
-8.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.01 |
1.98 |
0.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.82 |
2.02 |
-5.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Crewe, Over 2.5 (5.7 %, 0.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Crewe** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Crewe scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Crewe** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Crewe scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crewe’s performance** at home**.

Crewe,** at home**, had 9 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 32 points, 53.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Crewe scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Crewe was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Apr |
Oxford |
H |
0 |
6 |
L |
O |
N |

05 Apr |
Milton Keynes Dons |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Hull |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Northampton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Burton |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

09 Mar |
Doncaster |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Lincoln |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

02 Mar |
Blackpool |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Portsmouth** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Portsmouth** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Portsmouth** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Portsmouth’s performance** as a guest**.

Portsmouth,** as a guest**, had 11 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 35 points, 64.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Portsmouth was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Apr |
Burton |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Wigan |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Rochdale |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Mar |
Shrewsbury |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Ipswich |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Mar |
Peterboro |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Sunderland |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Northampton |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Crewe** is **0.033** and for the **Portsmouth** is **0.3.**

The home dynamic for the **Crewe** is **0.202** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Portsmouth** is **0.569.**

The offensive ability for the **Crewe** is **-0.033** and for the **Portsmouth** is **0.596.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Crewe** is **0.347** and for the **Portsmouth** is **-0.865.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Crewe** and the red line for guest team, **Portsmouth. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Crewe |
29% |
30% |
24% |
17% |

Portsmouth |
24% |
38% |
25% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Crewe** to score **1.05 ** goals and **Portsmouth** to score **1.39 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.44** goals in the game and the guest team **Portsmouth ** to win by **0.34** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Crewe** to score **1.28 ** goals and **Portsmouth** to score **1.28 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.56** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.29 |
0-1 |
3.98 |

1 |
5.52 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.08 |
4+ |
3.85 |

3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
6.10 |
Un 1.5 |
3.98 |

5 |
13.51 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |

6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
2.02 |

Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.85 |

NoG |
2.16 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.49 |
3.59 |
2.30 |

2-3 goals |
2.61 |
4.34 |
2.59 |

4+ goals |
2.48 |
3.13 |
3.61 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.56 |
3.83 |
2.87 |

Un 1.5 |
3.49 |
3.59 |
2.30 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.15 |
6.08 |
2.70 |

Un 2.5 |
3.82 |
2.71 |
2.71 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.48 |
3.13 |
3.61 |

Un 3.5 |
2.85 |
4.05 |
2.49 |

Goal-Goal |
2.76 |
2.75 |
3.64 |

No Goal |
2.72 |
6.60 |
2.08 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.18 |
5.13 |
2.88 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.95 |
6.60 |
2.09 |

####
Go to Top

###
Doncaster vs Burton at 13 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Doncaster** and **Burton** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **13 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Doncaster |
2.58 |
2.46 |
1.9 |

Draw |
3.17 |
3.62 |
-3.9 |

Burton |
2.79 |
3.16 |
-4.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.07 |
2.14 |
-1.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.76 |
1.88 |
-3.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Doncaster (1.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Doncaster** in the **last six** matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Doncaster scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Doncaster** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Doncaster scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Doncaster’s performance** at home**.

Doncaster,** at home**, had 11 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 37 points, 61.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Doncaster scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 13 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Doncaster was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Apr |
Wigan |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Bristol Rvs |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
Charlton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Milton Keynes Dons |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Gillingham |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

16 Mar |
Oxford |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

13 Mar |
Northampton |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Crewe |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Burton** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Burton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Burton** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Burton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Burton’s performance** as a guest**.

Burton,** as a guest**, had 7 wins, 7 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 46.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Burton scored in 17 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Burton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Apr |
Portsmouth |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Swindon |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
Accrington |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Mar |
Shrewsbury |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Milton Keynes Dons |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Mar |
Blackpool |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Mar |
Crewe |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

09 Mar |
AFC Wimbledon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Doncaster** is **-1** and for the **Burton** is **-0.05.**

The home dynamic for the **Doncaster** is **0.416** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Burton** is **0.292.**

The offensive ability for the **Doncaster** is **-0.411** and for the **Burton** is **0.486.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Doncaster** is **-1** and for the **Burton** is **-0.896.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Doncaster** and the red line for guest team, **Burton. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Doncaster |
25% |
36% |
23% |
16% |

Burton |
30% |
36% |
23% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Doncaster** to score **1.22 ** goals and **Burton** to score **1.16 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.38** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.06** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Doncaster** to score **1.3 ** goals and **Burton** to score **1.13 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.43** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.17** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
3.66 |

1 |
5.03 |
2-3 |
1.99 |

2 |
3.85 |
4+ |
4.42 |

3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
6.71 |
Un 1.5 |
3.66 |

5 |
16.39 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.13 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.88 |

Gg |
1.90 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.42 |

NoG |
2.11 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.