2021 04 13 League One (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

AFC Wimbledon vs Ipswich at 13 April 2021
Blackpool vs Accrington at 13 April 2021
Crewe vs Portsmouth at 13 April 2021
Doncaster vs Burton at 13 April 2021
Lincoln vs Milton Keynes Dons at 13 April 2021
Oxford vs Shrewsbury at 13 April 2021
Rochdale vs Swindon at 13 April 2021
Wigan vs Sunderland at 13 April 2021


AFC Wimbledon vs Ipswich at 13 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between AFC Wimbledon and Ipswich for League One (England), which will take place on 13 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

AFC Wimbledon

2.96

2.64

4.1

Draw

3.13

3.82

-5.8

Ipswich

2.48

2.79

-4.5

Over 2.5

2.37

1.93

9.6

Under 2.5

1.58

2.07

-15.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at AFC Wimbledon, Over 2.5 (4.1 %, 9.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

AFC Wimbledon in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, AFC Wimbledon scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, AFC Wimbledon in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, AFC Wimbledon scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at AFC Wimbledon’s performance at home.
AFC Wimbledon, at home, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 29.6% of the total available.
In these matches, AFC Wimbledon scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of AFC Wimbledon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Accrington

A

5

1

W

O

G

05 Apr

Fleetwood Town

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Apr

Plymouth

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Mar

Northampton

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Charlton

H

2

2

D

O

G

16 Mar

Wigan

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Bristol Rvs

A

0

0

D

U

N

09 Mar

Burton

H

0

1

L

U

N


Ipswich in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Ipswich scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ipswich in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Ipswich scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ipswich’s performance as a guest.
Ipswich, as a guest, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 42.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Ipswich scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ipswich was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Milton Keynes Dons

H

0

0

D

U

N

05 Apr

Rochdale

A

0

0

D

U

N

02 Apr

Bristol Rvs

H

2

1

W

O

G

27 Mar

Wigan

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Mar

Portsmouth

A

1

2

L

O

G

16 Mar

Fleetwood Town

A

0

2

L

U

N

13 Mar

Plymouth

H

1

0

W

U

N

09 Mar

Lincoln

H

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the AFC Wimbledon is 0.08 and for the Ipswich is -0.3.
The home dynamic for the AFC Wimbledon is -0.506 and the dynamic as a guest for the Ipswich is -0.169.
The offensive ability for the AFC Wimbledon is -0.078 and for the Ipswich is -1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the AFC Wimbledon is -0.554 and for the Ipswich is 0.14.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, AFC Wimbledon and the red line for guest team, Ipswich.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

AFC Wimbledon

29%

28%

26%

18%

Ipswich

24%

37%

24%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) AFC Wimbledon to score 1.01 goals and Ipswich to score 1.14 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.16 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.13 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) AFC Wimbledon to score 1.32 goals and Ipswich to score 1.28 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.04 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.29

0-1

4.07

1

5.68

2-3

2.07

2

4.24

4+

3.70

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

5.99

Un 1.5

4.07

5

12.82

Ov 2.5

1.94

6+

40.00

Un 2.5

2.07

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

3.70

NoG

2.17

Un 3.5

1.37

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.57

3.51

2.30

2-3 goals

2.40

4.59

2.74

4+ goals

2.50

3.14

3.55

Ov 1.5

2.43

3.94

2.98

Un 1.5

3.57

3.51

2.30

Ov 2.5

2.10

6.00

2.80

Un 2.5

3.65

2.75

2.75

Ov 3.5

2.50

3.14

3.55

Un 3.5

2.70

4.16

2.57

Goal-Goal

2.65

2.81

3.76

No Goal

2.63

6.59

2.13

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.13

5.02

3.02

NG+Un 2.5

2.86

6.59

2.15


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Blackpool vs Accrington at 13 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Blackpool and Accrington for League One (England), which will take place on 13 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Blackpool

1.73

2.13

-10.9

Draw

3.73

3.79

-0.4

Accrington

4.56

3.75

4.7

Over 2.5

1.96

2.08

-2.9

Under 2.5

1.86

1.92

-1.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Accrington (4.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Blackpool in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackpool scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Blackpool in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackpool scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Blackpool’s performance at home.
Blackpool, at home, had 9 wins, 6 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 33 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackpool scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Blackpool was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Lincoln

A

2

2

D

O

G

05 Apr

Gillingham

H

4

1

W

O

G

02 Apr

Swindon

A

2

0

W

U

N

27 Mar

Plymouth

H

2

2

D

O

G

23 Mar

Peterboro

H

3

1

W

O

G

20 Mar

Oxford

A

2

0

W

U

N

16 Mar

Burton

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Fleetwood Town

H

0

0

D

U

N


Accrington in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Accrington scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Accrington in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Accrington scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Accrington’s performance as a guest.
Accrington, as a guest, had 7 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 43.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Accrington scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Accrington was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

AFC Wimbledon

H

1

5

L

O

G

05 Apr

Oxford

A

2

1

W

O

G

02 Apr

Burton

H

0

0

D

U

N

27 Mar

Peterboro

A

0

7

L

O

N

20 Mar

Wigan

H

3

1

W

O

G

17 Mar

Sunderland

H

0

2

L

U

N

13 Mar

Milton Keynes Dons

A

2

3

L

O

G

09 Mar

Bristol Rvs

A

1

4

L

O

G


The form score for the Blackpool is 0.897 and for the Accrington is -0.37.
The home dynamic for the Blackpool is 0.63 and the dynamic as a guest for the Accrington is -0.169.
The offensive ability for the Blackpool is 1 and for the Accrington is -0.388.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Blackpool is -0.14 and for the Accrington is -0.896.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Blackpool and the red line for guest team, Accrington.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Blackpool

21%

34%

27%

18%

Accrington

35%

36%

19%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Blackpool to score 1.66 goals and Accrington to score 0.82 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the home team Blackpool to win by 0.84 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Blackpool to score 1.42 goals and Accrington to score 1.05 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the home team Blackpool to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.75

1

5.21

2-3

2.00

2

3.94

4+

4.26

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.58

Un 1.5

3.75

5

15.62

Ov 2.5

2.08

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.92

Gg

1.95

Ov 3.5

4.26

NoG

2.05

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.30

3.56

3.51

2-3 goals

1.98

4.20

3.88

4+ goals

2.33

3.31

3.73

Ov 1.5

2.08

3.87

3.83

Un 1.5

2.30

3.56

3.51

Ov 2.5

1.85

6.77

3.21

Un 2.5

2.49

2.69

4.42

Ov 3.5

2.33

3.31

3.73

Un 3.5

2.08

3.95

3.74

Goal-Goal

2.62

2.71

4.02

No Goal

1.79

6.51

3.49

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.02

5.56

3.09

NG+Un 2.5

1.92

6.51

3.41


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Crewe vs Portsmouth at 13 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Crewe and Portsmouth for League One (England), which will take place on 13 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Crewe

3.25

2.74

5.7

Draw

3.39

3.76

-2.9

Portsmouth

2.19

2.70

-8.6

Over 2.5

2.01

1.98

0.8

Under 2.5

1.82

2.02

-5.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Crewe, Over 2.5 (5.7 %, 0.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Crewe in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Crewe scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Crewe in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Crewe scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crewe’s performance at home.
Crewe, at home, had 9 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 32 points, 53.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Crewe scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crewe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Oxford

H

0

6

L

O

N

05 Apr

Milton Keynes Dons

A

2

0

W

U

N

02 Apr

Hull

H

1

2

L

O

G

20 Mar

Northampton

A

1

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Burton

H

0

3

L

O

N

09 Mar

Doncaster

H

1

0

W

U

N

06 Mar

Lincoln

A

0

3

L

O

N

02 Mar

Blackpool

A

1

1

D

U

G


Portsmouth in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Portsmouth in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Portsmouth’s performance as a guest.
Portsmouth, as a guest, had 11 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 35 points, 64.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Portsmouth was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Burton

H

1

2

L

O

G

05 Apr

Wigan

A

1

0

W

U

N

02 Apr

Rochdale

H

2

1

W

O

G

27 Mar

Shrewsbury

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Mar

Ipswich

H

2

1

W

O

G

16 Mar

Peterboro

A

0

1

L

U

N

09 Mar

Sunderland

H

0

2

L

U

N

06 Mar

Northampton

A

1

4

L

O

G


The form score for the Crewe is 0.033 and for the Portsmouth is 0.3.
The home dynamic for the Crewe is 0.202 and the dynamic as a guest for the Portsmouth is 0.569.
The offensive ability for the Crewe is -0.033 and for the Portsmouth is 0.596.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Crewe is 0.347 and for the Portsmouth is -0.865.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Crewe and the red line for guest team, Portsmouth.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Crewe

29%

30%

24%

17%

Portsmouth

24%

38%

25%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Crewe to score 1.05 goals and Portsmouth to score 1.39 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and the guest team Portsmouth to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Crewe to score 1.28 goals and Portsmouth to score 1.28 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.29

0-1

3.98

1

5.52

2-3

2.04

2

4.08

4+

3.85

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.10

Un 1.5

3.98

5

13.51

Ov 2.5

1.98

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

2.02

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

3.85

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.49

3.59

2.30

2-3 goals

2.61

4.34

2.59

4+ goals

2.48

3.13

3.61

Ov 1.5

2.56

3.83

2.87

Un 1.5

3.49

3.59

2.30

Ov 2.5

2.15

6.08

2.70

Un 2.5

3.82

2.71

2.71

Ov 3.5

2.48

3.13

3.61

Un 3.5

2.85

4.05

2.49

Goal-Goal

2.76

2.75

3.64

No Goal

2.72

6.60

2.08

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.18

5.13

2.88

NG+Un 2.5

2.95

6.60

2.09


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Doncaster vs Burton at 13 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Doncaster and Burton for League One (England), which will take place on 13 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Doncaster

2.58

2.46

1.9

Draw

3.17

3.62

-3.9

Burton

2.79

3.16

-4.2

Over 2.5

2.07

2.14

-1.6

Under 2.5

1.76

1.88

-3.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Doncaster (1.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Doncaster in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Doncaster scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Doncaster in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Doncaster scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Doncaster’s performance at home.
Doncaster, at home, had 11 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 37 points, 61.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Doncaster scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 13 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Doncaster was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Wigan

H

1

4

L

O

G

05 Apr

Bristol Rvs

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Apr

Charlton

H

0

1

L

U

N

27 Mar

Milton Keynes Dons

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Gillingham

A

2

2

D

O

G

16 Mar

Oxford

A

0

3

L

O

N

13 Mar

Northampton

H

0

0

D

U

N

09 Mar

Crewe

A

0

1

L

U

N


Burton in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Burton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Burton in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Burton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Burton’s performance as a guest.
Burton, as a guest, had 7 wins, 7 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Burton scored in 17 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Burton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Portsmouth

A

2

1

W

O

G

05 Apr

Swindon

H

2

1

W

O

G

02 Apr

Accrington

A

0

0

D

U

N

23 Mar

Shrewsbury

H

1

2

L

O

G

20 Mar

Milton Keynes Dons

H

1

2

L

O

G

16 Mar

Blackpool

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Crewe

A

3

0

W

O

N

09 Mar

AFC Wimbledon

A

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Doncaster is -1 and for the Burton is -0.05.
The home dynamic for the Doncaster is 0.416 and the dynamic as a guest for the Burton is 0.292.
The offensive ability for the Doncaster is -0.411 and for the Burton is 0.486.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Doncaster is -1 and for the Burton is -0.896.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Doncaster and the red line for guest team, Burton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Doncaster

25%

36%

23%

16%

Burton

30%

36%

23%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Doncaster to score 1.22 goals and Burton to score 1.16 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.06 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Doncaster to score 1.3 goals and Burton to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.17 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.51

0-1

3.66

1

5.03

2-3

1.99

2

3.85

4+

4.42

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.71

Un 1.5

3.66

5

16.39

Ov 2.5

2.13

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.88

Gg

1.90

Ov 3.5

4.42

NoG

2.11

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.