# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Newport County vs Carlisle at 13 April 2021**** Barrow vs Exeter at 13 April 2021**** Bradford vs Crawley Town at 13 April 2021**** Morecambe vs Scunthorpe at 13 April 2021**** Salford vs Bolton at 13 April 2021**** Walsall vs Tranmere at 13 April 2021**** Harrogate vs Leyton Orient at 13 April 2021**

###
Newport County vs Carlisle at 13 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Newport County** and **Carlisle** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **13 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Newport County |
3.22 |
2.40 |
10.6 |

Draw |
3.26 |
3.64 |
-3.2 |

Carlisle |
2.31 |
3.25 |
-12.5 |

Over 2.5 |
2.11 |
2.20 |
-1.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.74 |
1.83 |
-2.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Newport County (10.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Newport County** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Newport County scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Newport County** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Newport County** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Newport County’s performance** at home**.

Newport County,** at home**, had 10 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 34 points, 63.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Newport County scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Newport County was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Apr |
Mansfield |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

05 Apr |
Bolton |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Barrow |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Leyton Orient |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Mar |
Port Vale |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Morecambe |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Mar |
Bradford |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Colchester |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Carlisle** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Carlisle scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Carlisle** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Carlisle** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Carlisle’s performance** as a guest**.

Carlisle,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 35.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Carlisle scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Carlisle was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Apr |
Barrow |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

06 Apr |
Scunthorpe |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Apr |
Southend |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Mar |
Crawley Town |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Cambridge |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Mar |
Leyton Orient |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Stevenage |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Mar |
Mansfield |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **Newport County** is **-0.127** and for the **Carlisle** is **0.17.**

The home dynamic for the **Newport County** is **0.399** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Carlisle** is **-0.395.**

The offensive ability for the **Newport County** is **0.522** and for the **Carlisle** is **0.596.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Newport County** is **-0.482** and for the **Carlisle** is **0.067.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Newport County** and the red line for guest team, **Carlisle. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Newport County |
26% |
33% |
25% |
15% |

Carlisle |
32% |
37% |
21% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Newport County** to score **1.04 ** goals and **Carlisle** to score **1.31 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.35** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.27** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Newport County** to score **1.29 ** goals and **Carlisle** to score **1.09 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.38** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.2** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.90 |
0-1 |
3.47 |

1 |
4.90 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.88 |
4+ |
4.61 |

3 |
4.20 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
6.99 |
Un 1.5 |
3.47 |

5 |
17.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.20 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.83 |

Gg |
1.99 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.61 |

NoG |
2.00 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.69 |
3.43 |
2.97 |

2-3 goals |
2.22 |
4.03 |
3.31 |

4+ goals |
2.49 |
3.19 |
3.50 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.30 |
3.73 |
3.36 |

Un 1.5 |
2.69 |
3.43 |
2.97 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |
6.69 |
2.88 |

Un 2.5 |
2.90 |
2.64 |
3.62 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.49 |
3.19 |
3.50 |

Un 3.5 |
2.38 |
3.79 |
3.17 |

Goal-Goal |
2.79 |
2.63 |
3.83 |

No Goal |
2.11 |
5.94 |
2.80 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.11 |
5.57 |
2.89 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.25 |
5.94 |
2.80 |

####
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###
Barrow vs Exeter at 13 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Barrow** and **Exeter** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **13 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Barrow |
3.11 |
2.43 |
9.0 |

Draw |
3.46 |
3.57 |
-0.9 |

Exeter |
2.23 |
3.25 |
-14.1 |

Over 2.5 |
1.85 |
2.25 |
-9.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.96 |
1.80 |
4.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Barrow, Under 2.5 (9 %, 4.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Barrow** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Barrow scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Barrow** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Barrow** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Barrow’s performance** at home**.

Barrow,** at home**, had 6 wins, 8 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 43.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Barrow scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Barrow was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Apr |
Carlisle |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Colchester |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Apr |
Newport County |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Mar |
Stevenage |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Mar |
Grimsby |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Crawley Town |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Mar |
Cheltenham |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

12 Mar |
Walsall |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Exeter** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Exeter scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Exeter** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Exeter scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Exeter’s performance** as a guest**.

Exeter,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 8 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 43.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Exeter scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 13 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Exeter was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Apr |
Cambridge |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Mansfield |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Port Vale |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Salford |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Mar |
Oldham |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Tranmere |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Cheltenham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Scunthorpe |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Barrow** is **0.08** and for the **Exeter** is **-0.28.**

The home dynamic for the **Barrow** is **0.037** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Exeter** is **-0.21.**

The offensive ability for the **Barrow** is **0.556** and for the **Exeter** is **-0.06.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Barrow** is **-1** and for the **Exeter** is **-0.42.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Barrow** and the red line for guest team, **Exeter. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Barrow |
26% |
37% |
22% |
16% |

Exeter |
32% |
37% |
20% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Barrow** to score **1.14 ** goals and **Exeter** to score **1.46 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.6** goals in the game and the guest team **Exeter ** to win by **0.32** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Barrow** to score **1.28 ** goals and **Exeter** to score **1.09 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.37** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.19** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.20 |
0-1 |
3.39 |

1 |
4.69 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
3.86 |
4+ |
4.72 |

3 |
4.29 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |

4 |
7.09 |
Un 1.5 |
3.39 |

5 |
18.18 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.25 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.81 |

Gg |
1.98 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.72 |

NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.48 |
3.60 |
3.14 |

2-3 goals |
2.42 |
3.62 |
3.22 |

4+ goals |
2.36 |
3.48 |
3.48 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.40 |
3.57 |
3.29 |

Un 1.5 |
2.48 |
3.60 |
3.14 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |
7.30 |
2.75 |

Un 2.5 |
2.92 |
2.54 |
3.79 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.36 |
3.48 |
3.48 |

Un 3.5 |
2.44 |
3.61 |
3.19 |

Goal-Goal |
2.94 |
2.56 |
3.71 |

No Goal |
2.06 |
6.02 |
2.87 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.15 |
6.05 |
2.71 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.20 |
6.02 |
2.86 |

####
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###
Bradford vs Crawley Town at 13 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Bradford** and **Crawley Town** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **13 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Bradford |
2.47 |
2.61 |
-2.2 |

Draw |
3.38 |
3.61 |
-1.9 |

Crawley Town |
2.83 |
2.94 |
-1.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.97 |
2.25 |
-6.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.86 |
1.80 |
1.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Under 2.5 (1.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Bradford** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Bradford scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bradford** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Bradford** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bradford’s performance** at home**.

Bradford,** at home**, had 9 wins, 6 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 33 points, 57.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Bradford scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bradford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Apr |
Grimsby |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
Stevenage |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Apr |
Forest Green |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Mar |
Colchester |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Mar |
Scunthorpe |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Oldham |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Carlisle |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Mar |
Newport County |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Crawley Town** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Crawley Town** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crawley Town’s performance** as a guest**.

Crawley Town,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 6 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 35.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Crawley Town was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Apr |
Southend |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
Oldham |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
Scunthorpe |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

30 Mar |
Carlisle |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Port Vale |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Barrow |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Mar |
Walsall |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Mar |
Mansfield |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Bradford** is **0.568** and for the **Crawley Town** is **-1.**

The home dynamic for the **Bradford** is **0.605** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Crawley Town** is **-0.385.**

The offensive ability for the **Bradford** is **0.144** and for the **Crawley Town** is **-0.563.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Bradford** is **-0.067** and for the **Crawley Town** is **-0.347.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Bradford** and the red line for guest team, **Crawley Town. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Bradford |
29% |
33% |
24% |
13% |

Crawley Town |
31% |
36% |
21% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Bradford** to score **1.3 ** goals and **Crawley Town** to score **1.18 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.48** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.12** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Bradford** to score **1.22 ** goals and **Crawley Town** to score **1.14 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.36** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.08** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.11 |
0-1 |
3.37 |

1 |
4.83 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
3.89 |
4+ |
4.72 |

3 |
4.27 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |

4 |
7.19 |
Un 1.5 |
3.37 |

5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.24 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.81 |

Gg |
2.04 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.72 |

NoG |
1.96 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.91 |
3.30 |
2.83 |

2-3 goals |
2.40 |
4.13 |
2.94 |

4+ goals |
2.79 |
3.12 |
3.12 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.50 |
3.76 |
2.99 |

Un 1.5 |
2.91 |
3.30 |
2.83 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.18 |
6.56 |
2.58 |

Un 2.5 |
3.11 |
2.65 |
3.32 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.79 |
3.12 |
3.12 |

Un 3.5 |
2.57 |
3.77 |
2.90 |

Goal-Goal |
2.99 |
2.62 |
3.53 |

No Goal |
2.33 |
5.67 |
2.54 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.26 |
5.46 |
2.67 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.44 |
5.67 |
2.60 |

####
Go to Top

###
Morecambe vs Scunthorpe at 13 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Morecambe** and **Scunthorpe** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **13 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Morecambe |
2.11 |
2.34 |
-4.7 |

Draw |
3.40 |
3.65 |
-2.0 |

Scunthorpe |
3.42 |
3.34 |
0.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.08 |
2.19 |
-2.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.75 |
1.84 |
-2.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Scunthorpe (0.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Morecambe** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Morecambe scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Morecambe** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Morecambe scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Morecambe’s performance** at home**.

Morecambe,** at home**, had 10 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 35 points, 61.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Morecambe scored in 17 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Morecambe was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Apr |
Port Vale |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Apr |
Southend |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Apr |
Cambridge |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Mar |
Cheltenham |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Harrogate |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Newport County |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Mar |
Forest Green |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Carlisle |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Scunthorpe** in the **last six** matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Scunthorpe** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Scunthorpe** didn’t score to any of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Scunthorpe’s performance** as a guest**.

Scunthorpe,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 37.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Scunthorpe was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Apr |
Tranmere |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Apr |
Carlisle |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Crawley Town |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Mar |
Bradford |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Southend |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

16 Mar |
Oldham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Mar |
Leyton Orient |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

09 Mar |
Exeter |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Morecambe** is **-0.174** and for the **Scunthorpe** is **-0.18.**

The home dynamic for the **Morecambe** is **0.613** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Scunthorpe** is **-0.354.**

The offensive ability for the **Morecambe** is **0.411** and for the **Scunthorpe** is **-0.639.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Morecambe** is **-0.14** and for the **Scunthorpe** is **0.098.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Morecambe** and the red line for guest team, **Scunthorpe. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Morecambe |
26% |
33% |
26% |
16% |

Scunthorpe |
32% |
37% |
20% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Morecambe** to score **1.39 ** goals and **Scunthorpe** to score **0.98 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.37** goals in the game and the home team **Morecambe ** to win by **0.41** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Morecambe** to score **1.31 ** goals and **Scunthorpe** to score **1.08 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.39** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.23** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.05 |
0-1 |
3.51 |

1 |
4.95 |
2-3 |
2.01 |

2 |
3.88 |
4+ |
4.59 |

3 |
4.18 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
6.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.51 |

5 |
17.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.19 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.84 |

Gg |
1.99 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.59 |

NoG |
2.01 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.66 |