2021 04 13 League Two (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Newport County vs Carlisle at 13 April 2021
Barrow vs Exeter at 13 April 2021
Bradford vs Crawley Town at 13 April 2021
Morecambe vs Scunthorpe at 13 April 2021
Salford vs Bolton at 13 April 2021
Walsall vs Tranmere at 13 April 2021
Harrogate vs Leyton Orient at 13 April 2021


Newport County vs Carlisle at 13 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Newport County and Carlisle for League Two (England), which will take place on 13 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Newport County

3.22

2.40

10.6

Draw

3.26

3.64

-3.2

Carlisle

2.31

3.25

-12.5

Over 2.5

2.11

2.20

-1.9

Under 2.5

1.74

1.83

-2.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Newport County (10.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Newport County in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Newport County scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Newport County in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Newport County scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Newport County’s performance at home.
Newport County, at home, had 10 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 34 points, 63.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Newport County scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Newport County was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Apr

Mansfield

A

1

1

D

U

G

05 Apr

Bolton

H

1

0

W

U

N

02 Apr

Barrow

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Mar

Leyton Orient

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Mar

Port Vale

A

1

2

L

O

G

13 Mar

Morecambe

A

3

1

W

O

G

09 Mar

Bradford

H

2

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Colchester

A

2

0

W

U

N


Carlisle in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Carlisle in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Carlisle’s performance as a guest.
Carlisle, as a guest, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 35.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Carlisle was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Barrow

A

2

2

D

O

G

06 Apr

Scunthorpe

H

2

0

W

U

N

03 Apr

Southend

A

2

0

W

U

N

30 Mar

Crawley Town

H

2

0

W

U

N

27 Mar

Cambridge

H

1

2

L

O

G

23 Mar

Leyton Orient

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Stevenage

A

1

3

L

O

G

16 Mar

Mansfield

A

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Newport County is -0.127 and for the Carlisle is 0.17.
The home dynamic for the Newport County is 0.399 and the dynamic as a guest for the Carlisle is -0.395.
The offensive ability for the Newport County is 0.522 and for the Carlisle is 0.596.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Newport County is -0.482 and for the Carlisle is 0.067.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Newport County and the red line for guest team, Carlisle.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Newport County

26%

33%

25%

15%

Carlisle

32%

37%

21%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Newport County to score 1.04 goals and Carlisle to score 1.31 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.27 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Newport County to score 1.29 goals and Carlisle to score 1.09 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.2 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.90

0-1

3.47

1

4.90

2-3

2.02

2

3.88

4+

4.61

3

4.20

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

6.99

Un 1.5

3.47

5

17.24

Ov 2.5

2.20

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.83

Gg

1.99

Ov 3.5

4.61

NoG

2.00

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.69

3.43

2.97

2-3 goals

2.22

4.03

3.31

4+ goals

2.49

3.19

3.50

Ov 1.5

2.30

3.73

3.36

Un 1.5

2.69

3.43

2.97

Ov 2.5

1.99

6.69

2.88

Un 2.5

2.90

2.64

3.62

Ov 3.5

2.49

3.19

3.50

Un 3.5

2.38

3.79

3.17

Goal-Goal

2.79

2.63

3.83

No Goal

2.11

5.94

2.80

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.11

5.57

2.89

NG+Un 2.5

2.25

5.94

2.80


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Barrow vs Exeter at 13 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Barrow and Exeter for League Two (England), which will take place on 13 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Barrow

3.11

2.43

9.0

Draw

3.46

3.57

-0.9

Exeter

2.23

3.25

-14.1

Over 2.5

1.85

2.25

-9.6

Under 2.5

1.96

1.80

4.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Barrow, Under 2.5 (9 %, 4.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Barrow in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Barrow scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Barrow in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Barrow scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Barrow’s performance at home.
Barrow, at home, had 6 wins, 8 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 43.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Barrow scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Barrow was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Carlisle

H

2

2

D

O

G

05 Apr

Colchester

A

1

1

D

U

G

02 Apr

Newport County

H

2

1

W

O

G

27 Mar

Stevenage

A

1

2

L

O

G

23 Mar

Grimsby

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Crawley Town

H

3

2

W

O

G

16 Mar

Cheltenham

A

2

0

W

U

N

12 Mar

Walsall

A

1

0

W

U

N


Exeter in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Exeter scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Exeter in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Exeter scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Exeter’s performance as a guest.
Exeter, as a guest, had 6 wins, 8 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 43.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Exeter scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 13 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Exeter was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Cambridge

A

4

1

W

O

G

05 Apr

Mansfield

H

0

0

D

U

N

02 Apr

Port Vale

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Mar

Salford

H

1

0

W

U

N

23 Mar

Oldham

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Mar

Tranmere

A

1

2

L

O

G

13 Mar

Cheltenham

H

0

1

L

U

N

09 Mar

Scunthorpe

A

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Barrow is 0.08 and for the Exeter is -0.28.
The home dynamic for the Barrow is 0.037 and the dynamic as a guest for the Exeter is -0.21.
The offensive ability for the Barrow is 0.556 and for the Exeter is -0.06.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Barrow is -1 and for the Exeter is -0.42.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Barrow and the red line for guest team, Exeter.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Barrow

26%

37%

22%

16%

Exeter

32%

37%

20%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Barrow to score 1.14 goals and Exeter to score 1.46 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and the guest team Exeter to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Barrow to score 1.28 goals and Exeter to score 1.09 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.20

0-1

3.39

1

4.69

2-3

2.03

2

3.86

4+

4.72

3

4.29

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

7.09

Un 1.5

3.39

5

18.18

Ov 2.5

2.25

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.81

Gg

1.98

Ov 3.5

4.72

NoG

2.02

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.48

3.60

3.14

2-3 goals

2.42

3.62

3.22

4+ goals

2.36

3.48

3.48

Ov 1.5

2.40

3.57

3.29

Un 1.5

2.48

3.60

3.14

Ov 2.5

2.00

7.30

2.75

Un 2.5

2.92

2.54

3.79

Ov 3.5

2.36

3.48

3.48

Un 3.5

2.44

3.61

3.19

Goal-Goal

2.94

2.56

3.71

No Goal

2.06

6.02

2.87

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.15

6.05

2.71

NG+Un 2.5

2.20

6.02

2.86


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Bradford vs Crawley Town at 13 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bradford and Crawley Town for League Two (England), which will take place on 13 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Bradford

2.47

2.61

-2.2

Draw

3.38

3.61

-1.9

Crawley Town

2.83

2.94

-1.3

Over 2.5

1.97

2.25

-6.3

Under 2.5

1.86

1.80

1.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (1.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Bradford in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Bradford scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bradford in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Bradford scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bradford’s performance at home.
Bradford, at home, had 9 wins, 6 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 33 points, 57.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Bradford scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bradford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Grimsby

H

1

0

W

U

N

05 Apr

Stevenage

A

1

1

D

U

G

02 Apr

Forest Green

H

4

1

W

O

G

27 Mar

Colchester

A

2

1

W

O

G

23 Mar

Scunthorpe

A

0

2

L

U

N

20 Mar

Oldham

H

0

0

D

U

N

13 Mar

Carlisle

A

1

3

L

O

G

09 Mar

Newport County

A

1

2

L

O

G


Crawley Town in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Crawley Town in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crawley Town’s performance as a guest.
Crawley Town, as a guest, had 5 wins, 6 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 35.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crawley Town was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Southend

A

0

0

D

U

N

05 Apr

Oldham

H

1

4

L

O

G

02 Apr

Scunthorpe

A

0

0

D

U

N

30 Mar

Carlisle

A

0

2

L

U

N

27 Mar

Port Vale

H

1

3

L

O

G

20 Mar

Barrow

A

2

3

L

O

G

16 Mar

Walsall

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Mansfield

H

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Bradford is 0.568 and for the Crawley Town is -1.
The home dynamic for the Bradford is 0.605 and the dynamic as a guest for the Crawley Town is -0.385.
The offensive ability for the Bradford is 0.144 and for the Crawley Town is -0.563.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Bradford is -0.067 and for the Crawley Town is -0.347.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Bradford and the red line for guest team, Crawley Town.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Bradford

29%

33%

24%

13%

Crawley Town

31%

36%

21%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bradford to score 1.3 goals and Crawley Town to score 1.18 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bradford to score 1.22 goals and Crawley Town to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.11

0-1

3.37

1

4.83

2-3

2.04

2

3.89

4+

4.72

3

4.27

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

7.19

Un 1.5

3.37

5

17.54

Ov 2.5

2.24

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.81

Gg

2.04

Ov 3.5

4.72

NoG

1.96

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.91

3.30

2.83

2-3 goals

2.40

4.13

2.94

4+ goals

2.79

3.12

3.12

Ov 1.5

2.50

3.76

2.99

Un 1.5

2.91

3.30

2.83

Ov 2.5

2.18

6.56

2.58

Un 2.5

3.11

2.65

3.32

Ov 3.5

2.79

3.12

3.12

Un 3.5

2.57

3.77

2.90

Goal-Goal

2.99

2.62

3.53

No Goal

2.33

5.67

2.54

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.26

5.46

2.67

NG+Un 2.5

2.44

5.67

2.60


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Morecambe vs Scunthorpe at 13 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Morecambe and Scunthorpe for League Two (England), which will take place on 13 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Morecambe

2.11

2.34

-4.7

Draw

3.40

3.65

-2.0

Scunthorpe

3.42

3.34

0.7

Over 2.5

2.08

2.19

-2.4

Under 2.5

1.75

1.84

-2.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Scunthorpe (0.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Morecambe in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Morecambe scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Morecambe in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Morecambe scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Morecambe’s performance at home.
Morecambe, at home, had 10 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 35 points, 61.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Morecambe scored in 17 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Morecambe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Port Vale

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Apr

Southend

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Apr

Cambridge

A

1

2

L

O

G

27 Mar

Cheltenham

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Harrogate

A

1

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Newport County

H

1

3

L

O

G

09 Mar

Forest Green

A

2

2

D

O

G

06 Mar

Carlisle

H

3

1

W

O

G


Scunthorpe in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Scunthorpe in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Scunthorpe’s performance as a guest.
Scunthorpe, as a guest, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 37.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Scunthorpe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Tranmere

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Apr

Carlisle

A

0

2

L

U

N

02 Apr

Crawley Town

H

0

0

D

U

N

23 Mar

Bradford

H

2

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Southend

H

1

1

D

U

G

16 Mar

Oldham

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Leyton Orient

A

1

1

D

U

G

09 Mar

Exeter

H

0

2

L

U

N


The form score for the Morecambe is -0.174 and for the Scunthorpe is -0.18.
The home dynamic for the Morecambe is 0.613 and the dynamic as a guest for the Scunthorpe is -0.354.
The offensive ability for the Morecambe is 0.411 and for the Scunthorpe is -0.639.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Morecambe is -0.14 and for the Scunthorpe is 0.098.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Morecambe and the red line for guest team, Scunthorpe.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Morecambe

26%

33%

26%

16%

Scunthorpe

32%

37%

20%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Morecambe to score 1.39 goals and Scunthorpe to score 0.98 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and the home team Morecambe to win by 0.41 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Morecambe to score 1.31 goals and Scunthorpe to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.05

0-1

3.51

1

4.95

2-3

2.01

2

3.88

4+

4.59

3

4.18

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

6.94

Un 1.5

3.51

5

17.24

Ov 2.5

2.19

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.84

Gg

1.99

Ov 3.5

4.59

NoG

2.01

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.66