2021 04 13 Segunda Division (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Vallecano vs Mirandes at 14 April 2021


Vallecano vs Mirandes at 14 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Vallecano and Mirandes for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 14 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Vallecano

1.93

2.11

-4.4

Draw

3.22

3.68

-3.9

Mirandes

4.16

3.94

1.3

Over 2.5

2.39

2.27

2.2

Under 2.5

1.57

1.79

-7.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Mirandes, Over 2.5 (1.3 %, 2.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Vallecano in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Vallecano scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Vallecano in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Vallecano scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Vallecano’s performance at home.
Vallecano, at home, had 10 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 32 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Vallecano scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Vallecano was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Girona

H

2

1

W

O

G

02 Apr

Almeria

A

1

0

W

U

N

30 Mar

Sp Gijon

H

0

1

L

U

N

21 Mar

Alcorcon

A

3

0

W

O

N

12 Mar

Zaragoza

H

3

2

W

O

G

06 Mar

Las Palmas

A

1

1

D

U

G

27 Feb

Ponferradina

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Feb

Malaga

A

0

2

L

U

N


Mirandes in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Mirandes scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Mirandes in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Mirandes scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Mirandes’s performance as a guest.
Mirandes, as a guest, had 7 wins, one draw, 8 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 45.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Mirandes scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Mirandes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Apr

Logrones

H

0

1

L

U

N

04 Apr

Sp Gijon

A

2

1

W

O

G

22 Mar

Zaragoza

A

0

1

L

U

N

13 Mar

Espanol

H

2

2

D

O

G

08 Mar

Alcorcon

A

0

4

L

O

N

01 Mar

Malaga

H

1

0

W

U

N

19 Feb

Ponferradina

A

0

1

L

U

N

13 Feb

Girona

H

3

3

D

O

G


The form score for the Vallecano is 0.737 and for the Mirandes is -0.42.
The home dynamic for the Vallecano is 0.481 and the dynamic as a guest for the Mirandes is -0.138.
The offensive ability for the Vallecano is 0.478 and for the Mirandes is -0.53.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Vallecano is -0.036 and for the Mirandes is -1.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Vallecano and the red line for guest team, Mirandes.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Vallecano

23%

35%

26%

17%

Mirandes

37%

37%

19%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Vallecano to score 1.35 goals and Mirandes to score 0.79 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.14 goals in the game and the home team Vallecano to win by 0.56 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Vallecano to score 1.37 goals and Mirandes to score 0.97 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and the home team Vallecano to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.05

0-1

3.41

1

4.76

2-3

1.99

2

3.79

4+

4.98

3

4.18

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

7.35

Un 1.5

3.41

5

19.23

Ov 2.5

2.27

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.80

Gg

2.05

Ov 3.5

4.98

NoG

1.96

Un 3.5

1.26

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.31

3.53

3.53

2-3 goals

2.00

3.96

4.06

4+ goals

2.14

3.30

4.37

Ov 1.5

2.03

3.74

4.14

Un 1.5

2.31

3.53

3.53

Ov 2.5

1.75

7.21

3.44

Un 2.5

2.51

2.65

4.46

Ov 3.5

2.14

3.30

4.37

Un 3.5

2.10

3.79

3.85

Goal-Goal

2.58

2.60

4.40

No Goal

1.79

6.13

3.58

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.91

5.92

3.25

NG+Un 2.5

1.94

6.13

3.44


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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