2021 04 13 Serie B (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Cremonese vs Empoli at 13 April 2021


Cremonese vs Empoli at 13 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Cremonese and Empoli for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 13 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Cremonese

3.13

2.65

5.8

Draw

3.07

3.58

-4.6

Empoli

2.36

2.92

-8.1

Over 2.5

2.06

2.14

-1.8

Under 2.5

1.76

1.88

-3.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Cremonese (5.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Cremonese in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Cremonese scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cremonese in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Cremonese scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cremonese’s performance at home.
Cremonese, at home, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 45.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Cremonese scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cremonese was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Pordenone

H

2

1

W

O

G

05 Apr

Cosenza

A

1

0

W

U

N

19 Mar

Ascoli

A

0

0

D

U

N

16 Mar

Virtus Entella

A

2

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Reggiana

H

3

0

W

O

N

06 Mar

Salernitana

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Mar

Vicenza

A

1

3

L

O

G

27 Feb

Frosinone

H

4

0

W

O

N


Empoli in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Empoli scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Empoli in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Empoli scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Empoli’s performance as a guest.
Empoli, as a guest, had 8 wins, 7 draws, one defeat and gathered 31 points, 64.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Empoli scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Empoli was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Apr

Reggiana

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Virtus Entella

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Mar

Pordenone

H

1

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Vicenza

A

2

0

W

U

N

07 Mar

Cittadella

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Mar

Reggina

A

3

0

W

O

N

26 Feb

Venezia

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Pisa

A

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Cremonese is 0.784 and for the Empoli is 1.
The home dynamic for the Cremonese is 0.119 and the dynamic as a guest for the Empoli is 0.908.
The offensive ability for the Cremonese is 0.078 and for the Empoli is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Cremonese is 0.865 and for the Empoli is 1.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Cremonese and the red line for guest team, Empoli.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Cremonese

26%

34%

29%

11%

Empoli

27%

40%

21%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cremonese to score 1.08 goals and Empoli to score 1.31 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.23 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cremonese to score 1.24 goals and Empoli to score 1.19 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.08

0-1

3.76

1

5.13

2-3

1.94

2

3.73

4+

4.61

3

4.03

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.90

Un 1.5

3.76

5

16.95

Ov 2.5

2.15

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.87

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

4.61

NoG

2.17

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.96

3.75

2.53

2-3 goals

2.30

3.85

3.27

4+ goals

3.39

2.93

2.75

Ov 1.5

2.55

3.52

3.09

Un 1.5

2.96

3.75

2.53

Ov 2.5

2.22

6.28

2.55

Un 2.5

3.16

2.60

3.34

Ov 3.5

3.39

2.93

2.75

Un 3.5

2.49

3.81

2.97

Goal-Goal

2.97

2.59

3.61

No Goal

2.34

6.49

2.39

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.23

5.46

2.71

NG+Un 2.5

2.37

6.49

2.50


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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