2021 04 16 Bundesliga (Germany)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

RB Leipzig vs Hoffenheim at 16 April 2021
Freiburg vs Schalke 04 at 17 April 2021
Leverkusen vs FC Koln at 17 April 2021
<a href=‘#M’gladbach’> M’gladbach vs Ein Frankfurt at 17 April 2021
Union Berlin vs Stuttgart at 17 April 2021
Wolfsburg vs Bayern Munich at 17 April 2021
Augsburg vs Bielefeld at 17 April 2021
Dortmund vs Werder Bremen at 18 April 2021
Mainz vs Hertha at 18 April 2021


RB Leipzig vs Hoffenheim at 16 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between RB Leipzig and Hoffenheim for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 16 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

RB Leipzig

1.39

1.72

-13.8

Draw

5.00

4.35

3.0

Hoffenheim

7.97

5.26

6.5

Over 2.5

1.54

1.74

-7.5

Under 2.5

2.48

2.35

2.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Hoffenheim, Under 2.5 (3 %, 6.5 %, 2.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

RB Leipzig in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, RB Leipzig scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, RB Leipzig in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, RB Leipzig scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at RB Leipzig’s performance at home.
RB Leipzig, at home, had 10 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 32 points, 76.2% of the total available.
In these matches, RB Leipzig scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of RB Leipzig was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Werder Bremen

A

4

1

W

O

G

03 Apr

Bayern Munich

H

0

1

L

U

N

19 Mar

Bielefeld

A

1

0

W

U

N

14 Mar

Ein Frankfurt

H

1

1

D

U

G

06 Mar

Freiburg

A

3

0

W

O

N

27 Feb

M’gladbach

H

3

2

W

O

G

21 Feb

Hertha

A

3

0

W

O

N

12 Feb

Augsburg

H

2

1

W

O

G


Hoffenheim in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hoffenheim in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hoffenheim’s performance as a guest.
Hoffenheim, as a guest, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 31.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Hoffenheim was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Apr

Leverkusen

H

0

0

D

U

N

03 Apr

Augsburg

A

1

2

L

O

G

21 Mar

Mainz

H

1

2

L

O

G

14 Mar

Stuttgart

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Mar

Wolfsburg

H

2

1

W

O

G

28 Feb

Union Berlin

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Feb

Werder Bremen

H

4

0

W

O

N

13 Feb

Dortmund

A

2

2

D

O

G


The form score for the RB Leipzig is 0.467 and for the Hoffenheim is -0.468.
The home dynamic for the RB Leipzig is 0.989 and the dynamic as a guest for the Hoffenheim is -0.187.
The offensive ability for the RB Leipzig is 0.465 and for the Hoffenheim is 0.13.
Finally, the defensive ability for the RB Leipzig is -0.356 and for the Hoffenheim is -0.539.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, RB Leipzig and the red line for guest team, Hoffenheim.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

RB Leipzig

14%

28%

24%

33%

Hoffenheim

36%

37%

18%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) RB Leipzig to score 2.41 goals and Hoffenheim to score 0.66 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.07 goals in the game and the home team RB Leipzig to win by 1.75 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) RB Leipzig to score 1.76 goals and Hoffenheim to score 1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.76 goals in the game and the home team RB Leipzig to win by 0.76 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

19.23

0-1

4.81

1

6.41

2-3

2.04

2

4.59

4+

3.31

3

3.68

Ov 1.5

1.26

4

5.21

Un 1.5

4.81

5

12.35

Ov 2.5

1.74

6+

34.48

Un 2.5

2.35

Gg

1.82

Ov 3.5

3.31

NoG

2.21

Un 3.5

1.43

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.04

4.00

3.85

2-3 goals

1.67

4.62

5.44

4+ goals

1.64

4.19

6.57

Ov 1.5

1.66

4.45

5.82

Un 1.5

2.04

4.00

3.85

Ov 2.5

1.46

7.97

5.22

Un 2.5

2.27

2.70

5.32

Ov 3.5

1.64

4.19

6.57

Un 3.5

1.76

4.42

4.85

Goal-Goal

2.01

3.08

5.65

No Goal

1.47

8.69

4.86

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.62

6.14

4.56

NG+Un 2.5

1.70

8.69

4.00


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Freiburg vs Schalke 04 at 17 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Freiburg and Schalke 04 for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 17 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Freiburg

1.69

1.59

3.7

Draw

4.01

4.61

-3.2

Schalke 04

5.00

6.49

-4.6

Over 2.5

1.85

1.70

4.8

Under 2.5

1.97

2.42

-9.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Freiburg, Over 2.5 (3.7 %, 4.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Freiburg in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Freiburg scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Freiburg in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Freiburg scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Freiburg’s performance at home.
Freiburg, at home, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 52.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Freiburg scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Freiburg was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Apr

Bielefeld

A

0

1

L

U

N

03 Apr

M’gladbach

A

1

2

L

O

G

21 Mar

Augsburg

H

2

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Mainz

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Mar

RB Leipzig

H

0

3

L

O

N

28 Feb

Leverkusen

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Feb

Union Berlin

H

0

1

L

U

N

13 Feb

Werder Bremen

A

0

0

D

U

N


Schalke 04 in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Schalke 04 scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Schalke 04 in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Schalke 04 scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Schalke 04’s performance as a guest.
Schalke 04, as a guest, had no wins, 4 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 10.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Schalke 04 scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Schalke 04 was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Apr

Augsburg

H

1

0

W

U

N

03 Apr

Leverkusen

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Mar

M’gladbach

H

0

3

L

O

N

13 Mar

Wolfsburg

A

0

5

L

O

N

05 Mar

Mainz

H

0

0

D

U

N

27 Feb

Stuttgart

A

1

5

L

O

G

20 Feb

Dortmund

H

0

4

L

O

N

13 Feb

Union Berlin

A

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Freiburg is -0.385 and for the Schalke 04 is -0.563.
The home dynamic for the Freiburg is 0.173 and the dynamic as a guest for the Schalke 04 is -0.785.
The offensive ability for the Freiburg is -0.465 and for the Schalke 04 is -0.166.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Freiburg is -0.652 and for the Schalke 04 is -0.191.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Freiburg and the red line for guest team, Schalke 04.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Freiburg

12%

26%

29%

34%

Schalke 04

36%

41%

16%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Freiburg to score 1.79 goals and Schalke 04 to score 0.81 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and the home team Freiburg to win by 0.98 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Freiburg to score 1.84 goals and Schalke 04 to score 0.94 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.78 goals in the game and the home team Freiburg to win by 0.9 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

23.26

0-1

5.41

1

7.04

2-3

1.93

2

4.39

4+

3.36

3

3.46

Ov 1.5

1.23

4

4.93

Un 1.5

5.41

5

13.70

Ov 2.5

1.70

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

2.42

Gg

1.78

Ov 3.5

3.36

NoG

2.29

Un 3.5

1.42

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.01

4.30

3.70

2-3 goals

1.50

4.92

7.60

4+ goals

1.54

4.32

8.28

Ov 1.5

1.52

4.68

7.84

Un 1.5

2.01

4.30

3.70

Ov 2.5

1.36

8.51

6.91

Un 2.5

2.11

2.79

5.99

Ov 3.5

1.54

4.32

8.28

Un 3.5

1.61

4.74

5.95

Goal-Goal

1.80

3.24

7.31

No Goal

1.38

10.16

5.68

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.47

6.64

5.95

NG+Un 2.5

1.57

10.16

4.46


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Leverkusen vs FC Koln at 17 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Leverkusen and FC Koln for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 17 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Leverkusen

1.65

1.81

-5.4

Draw

3.83

4.20

-2.3

FC Koln

5.66

4.76

3.3

Over 2.5

1.74

1.79

-1.6

Under 2.5

2.14

2.27

-2.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at FC Koln (3.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Leverkusen in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leverkusen in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leverkusen’s performance at home.
Leverkusen, at home, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 52.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leverkusen was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Apr

Hoffenheim

A

0

0

D

U

N

03 Apr

Schalke 04

H

2

1

W

O

G

21 Mar

Hertha

A

0

3

L

O

N

14 Mar

Bielefeld

H

1

2

L

O

G

06 Mar

M’gladbach

A

1

0

W

U

N

28 Feb

Freiburg

H

1

2

L

O

G

21 Feb

Augsburg

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Feb

Mainz

H

2

2

D

O

G


FC Koln in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Koln scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, FC Koln in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Koln scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at FC Koln’s performance as a guest.
FC Koln, as a guest, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 35.7% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Koln scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of FC Koln was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Apr

Mainz

H

2

3

L

O

G

03 Apr

Wolfsburg

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Dortmund

H

2

2

D

O

G

13 Mar

Union Berlin

A

1

2

L

O

G

07 Mar

Werder Bremen

H

1

1

D

U

G

27 Feb

Bayern Munich

A

1

5

L

O

G

20 Feb

Stuttgart

H

0

1

L

U

N

14 Feb

Ein Frankfurt

A

0

2

L

U

N


The form score for the Leverkusen is -0.133 and for the FC Koln is -0.802.
The home dynamic for the Leverkusen is -0.006 and the dynamic as a guest for the FC Koln is -0.124.
The offensive ability for the Leverkusen is -0.07 and for the FC Koln is 0.552.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Leverkusen is -0.311 and for the FC Koln is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Leverkusen and the red line for guest team, FC Koln.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Leverkusen

16%

29%

25%

30%

FC Koln

35%

37%

19%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Leverkusen to score 1.95 goals and FC Koln to score 0.81 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.76 goals in the game and the home team Leverkusen to win by 1.14 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Leverkusen to score 1.69 goals and FC Koln to score 1.03 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.72 goals in the game and the home team Leverkusen to win by 0.66 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

18.18

0-1

4.65

1

6.25

2-3

2.03

2

4.44

4+

3.40

3

3.75

Ov 1.5

1.27

4

5.41

Un 1.5

4.65

5

12.50

Ov 2.5

1.78

6+

34.48

Un 2.5

2.27

Gg

1.82

Ov 3.5

3.40

NoG

2.21

Un 3.5

1.41

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.09

3.91

3.77

2-3 goals

1.73

4.56

4.97

4+ goals

1.78

3.92

5.44

Ov 1.5

1.75

4.30

5.14

Un 1.5

2.09

3.91

3.77

Ov 2.5

1.55

7.48

4.52

Un 2.5

2.30

2.70

5.12

Ov 3.5

1.78

3.92

5.44

Un 3.5

1.82

4.34

4.53

Goal-Goal

2.14

3.00

5.04

No Goal

1.53

8.22

4.48

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.72

5.88

4.05

NG+Un 2.5

1.74

8.22

3.86


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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<a id=‘M’gladbach’>

M’gladbach vs Ein Frankfurt at 17 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between M’gladbach and Ein Frankfurt for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 17 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

M’gladbach

2.58

2.35

3.8

Draw

3.82

3.97

-1.0

Ein Frankfurt

2.66

3.11

-5.4

Over 2.5

1.53

1.79

-9.5

Under 2.5

2.47

2.27

3.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at M’gladbach, Under 2.5 (3.8 %, 3.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

M’gladbach in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, M’gladbach scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, M’gladbach in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, M’gladbach scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at M’gladbach’s performance at home.
M’gladbach, at home, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 52.4% of the total available.
In these matches, M’gladbach scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of M’gladbach was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Hertha

A

2

2

D

O

G

03 Apr

Freiburg

H

2

1

W

O

G

20 Mar

Schalke 04

A

3

0

W

O

N

12 Mar

Augsburg

A

1

3

L

O

G

06 Mar

Leverkusen

H

0

1

L

U

N

27 Feb

RB Leipzig

A

2

3

L

O

G

20 Feb

Mainz

H

1

2

L

O

G

14 Feb

Wolfsburg

A

0

0

D

U

N


Ein Frankfurt in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Ein Frankfurt scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Ein Frankfurt in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Ein Frankfurt scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Ein Frankfurt’s performance as a guest.
Ein Frankfurt, as a guest, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 54.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Ein Frankfurt scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ein Frankfurt was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Wolfsburg

H

4

3

W

O

G

03 Apr

Dortmund

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Mar

Union Berlin

H

5

2

W

O

G

14 Mar

RB Leipzig

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Mar

Stuttgart

H

1

1

D

U

G

26 Feb

Werder Bremen

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Feb

Bayern Munich

H

2

1

W

O

G

14 Feb

FC Koln

H

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the M’gladbach is -0.089 and for the Ein Frankfurt is 0.381.
The home dynamic for the M’gladbach is 0.028 and the dynamic as a guest for the Ein Frankfurt is 0.211.
The offensive ability for the M’gladbach is 0.572 and for the Ein Frankfurt is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the M’gladbach is -0.652 and for the Ein Frankfurt is -1.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, M’gladbach and the red line for guest team, Ein Frankfurt.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

M’gladbach

25%

34%

10%

31%

Ein Frankfurt

32%

28%

22%

18%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) M’gladbach to score 1.56 goals and Ein Frankfurt to score 1.52 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.08 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.04 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) M’gladbach to score 1.48 goals and Ein Frankfurt to score 1.26 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.74 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.66

0-1

3.91

1

5.65

2-3

2.33

2

5.46

4+

3.21

3

4.05

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

5.88

Un 1.5

3.91

5

11.49

Ov 2.5

1.79

6+

18.18

Un 2.5

2.28

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

3.21

NoG