2021 04 16 Championship (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Reading vs Cardiff at 16 April 2021
Blackburn vs Derby at 16 April 2021
Swansea vs Wycombe at 17 April 2021
Stoke vs Preston at 17 April 2021
Sheffield Weds vs Bristol City at 17 April 2021
<a href=‘#Nott’m Forest’> Nott’m Forest vs Huddersfield at 17 April 2021
Norwich vs Bournemouth at 17 April 2021
Middlesbrough vs QPR at 17 April 2021
Luton vs Watford at 17 April 2021
Brentford vs Millwall at 17 April 2021
Rotherham vs Birmingham at 18 April 2021
Coventry vs Barnsley at 18 April 2021


Reading vs Cardiff at 16 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Reading and Cardiff for Championship (England), which will take place on 16 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Reading

2.15

2.31

-3.2

Draw

3.25

3.69

-3.7

Cardiff

3.55

3.37

1.5

Over 2.5

2.22

2.12

2.1

Under 2.5

1.67

1.89

-7.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Cardiff, Over 2.5 (1.5 %, 2.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Reading in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Reading scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Reading in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Reading scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Reading’s performance at home.
Reading, at home, had 12 wins, one draw, 7 defeats, and gathered 37 points, 61.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Reading scored in 17 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 13 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Reading was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Apr

Watford

A

0

2

L

U

N

05 Apr

Derby

H

3

1

W

O

G

02 Apr

Barnsley

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Mar

QPR

H

1

1

D

U

G

17 Mar

Birmingham

A

1

2

L

O

G

13 Mar

Nott’m Forest

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Mar

Sheffield Weds

H

3

0

W

O

N

02 Mar

Blackburn

H

1

0

W

U

N


Cardiff in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Cardiff scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cardiff in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Cardiff scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cardiff’s performance as a guest.
Cardiff, as a guest, had 9 wins, 6 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 33 points, 55.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Cardiff scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cardiff was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Blackburn

H

2

2

D

O

G

05 Apr

Sheffield Weds

A

0

5

L

O

N

02 Apr

Nott’m Forest

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Swansea

A

1

0

W

U

N

16 Mar

Stoke

H

0

0

D

U

N

13 Mar

Watford

H

1

2

L

O

G

05 Mar

Huddersfield

A

0

0

D

U

N

02 Mar

Derby

H

4

0

W

O

N


The form score for the Reading is -0.163 and for the Cardiff is -0.429.
The home dynamic for the Reading is 0.151 and the dynamic as a guest for the Cardiff is -0.044.
The offensive ability for the Reading is 0.433 and for the Cardiff is -0.229.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Reading is -1 and for the Cardiff is -0.278.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Reading and the red line for guest team, Cardiff.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Reading

24%

34%

24%

18%

Cardiff

32%

37%

20%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Reading to score 1.33 goals and Cardiff to score 0.94 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and the home team Reading to win by 0.39 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Reading to score 1.35 goals and Cardiff to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.99

0-1

3.61

1

5.00

2-3

2.03

2

3.97

4+

4.33

3

4.15

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.62

Un 1.5

3.61

5

16.39

Ov 2.5

2.12

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.89

Gg

1.94

Ov 3.5

4.33

NoG

2.06

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.50

3.60

3.11

2-3 goals

2.22

3.88

3.42

4+ goals

2.31

3.45

3.61

Ov 1.5

2.25

3.73

3.48

Un 1.5

2.50

3.60

3.11

Ov 2.5

1.93

7.04

2.95

Un 2.5

2.81

2.59

3.86

Ov 3.5

2.31

3.45

3.61

Un 3.5

2.31

3.77

3.30

Goal-Goal

2.74

2.65

3.87

No Goal

1.98

6.31

2.96

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.06

5.79

2.92

NG+Un 2.5

2.14

6.31

2.93


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Blackburn vs Derby at 16 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Blackburn and Derby for Championship (England), which will take place on 16 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Blackburn

2.16

1.96

4.7

Draw

3.32

3.77

-3.6

Derby

3.49

4.44

-6.1

Over 2.5

2.15

2.14

0.2

Under 2.5

1.71

1.88

-5.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Blackburn, Over 2.5 (4.7 %, 0.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Blackburn in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackburn scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Blackburn in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackburn scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Blackburn’s performance at home.
Blackburn, at home, had 6 wins, 7 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackburn scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Blackburn was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Cardiff

A

2

2

D

O

G

05 Apr

Bournemouth

H

0

2

L

U

N

02 Apr

Wycombe

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Norwich

A

1

1

D

U

G

17 Mar

Bristol City

H

0

0

D

U

N

12 Mar

Brentford

H

0

1

L

U

N

09 Mar

Swansea

H

1

1

D

U

G

06 Mar

Millwall

A

2

0

W

U

N


Derby in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Derby scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Derby in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Derby scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Derby’s performance as a guest.
Derby, as a guest, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 31.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Derby scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 14 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Derby was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Norwich

H

0

1

L

U

N

05 Apr

Reading

A

1

3

L

O

G

02 Apr

Luton

H

2

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Stoke

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 Mar

Brentford

H

2

2

D

O

G

13 Mar

Millwall

H

0

1

L

U

N

10 Mar

Barnsley

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Coventry

A

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Blackburn is -0.496 and for the Derby is -0.611.
The home dynamic for the Blackburn is 0.028 and the dynamic as a guest for the Derby is -0.02.
The offensive ability for the Blackburn is -0.85 and for the Derby is -0.193.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Blackburn is -0.704 and for the Derby is -0.591.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Blackburn and the red line for guest team, Derby.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Blackburn

20%

34%

25%

22%

Derby

36%

42%

13%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Blackburn to score 1.35 goals and Derby to score 0.96 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and the home team Blackburn to win by 0.39 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Blackburn to score 1.48 goals and Derby to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and the home team Blackburn to win by 0.52 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.89

0-1

3.61

1

4.88

2-3

2.00

2

3.91

4+

4.44

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.49

Un 1.5

3.61

5

19.61

Ov 2.5

2.14

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.88

Gg

1.95

Ov 3.5

4.44

NoG

2.05

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.27

3.85

3.34

2-3 goals

1.85

3.54

5.67

4+ goals

1.89

4.33

4.17

Ov 1.5

1.86

3.75

5.10

Un 1.5

2.27

3.85

3.34

Ov 2.5

1.56

9.00

4.03

Un 2.5

2.53

2.50

4.89

Ov 3.5

1.89

4.33

4.17

Un 3.5

1.98

3.64

4.54

Goal-Goal

2.31

2.66

5.23

No Goal

1.69

6.78

3.84

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.68

7.15

3.80

NG+Un 2.5

1.86

6.78

3.60


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Swansea vs Wycombe at 17 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Swansea and Wycombe for Championship (England), which will take place on 17 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Swansea

1.52

1.68

-6.3

Draw

3.96

4.22

-1.6

Wycombe

6.75

5.99

1.9

Over 2.5

2.07

2.02

1.2

Under 2.5

1.76

1.98

-6.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Wycombe, Over 2.5 (1.9 %, 1.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Swansea in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Swansea scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Swansea in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Swansea scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Swansea’s performance at home.
Swansea, at home, had 11 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 38 points, 63.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Swansea scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 15 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Swansea was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Apr

Sheffield Weds

A

2

0

W

U

N

10 Apr

Millwall

A

3

0

W

O

N

05 Apr

Preston

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Apr

Birmingham

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Cardiff

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Mar

Bournemouth

A

0

3

L

O

N

13 Mar

Luton

A

1

0

W

U

N

09 Mar

Blackburn

A

1

1

D

U

G


Wycombe in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wycombe in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wycombe’s performance as a guest.
Wycombe, as a guest, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 13 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 21.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 17 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wycombe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Luton

H

1

3

L

O

G

05 Apr

Rotherham

A

3

0

W

O

N

02 Apr

Blackburn

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Coventry

A

0

0

D

U

N

17 Mar

Barnsley

H

1

3

L

O

G

13 Mar

Preston

H

1

0

W

U

N

09 Mar

QPR

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Mar

Stoke

A

0

2

L

U

N


The form score for the Swansea is -0.237 and for the Wycombe is 0.087.
The home dynamic for the Swansea is 0.408 and the dynamic as a guest for the Wycombe is -0.522.
The offensive ability for the Swansea is -0.786 and for the Wycombe is 0.614.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Swansea is -0.237 and for the Wycombe is 0.539.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Swansea and the red line for guest team, Wycombe.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Swansea

14%

31%

30%

25%

Wycombe

41%

39%

14%

6%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Swansea to score 1.76 goals and Wycombe to score 0.62 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the home team Swansea to win by 1.14 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Swansea to score 1.65 goals and Wycombe to score 0.86 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the home team Swansea to win by 0.79 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

16.95

0-1

4.12

1

5.43

2-3

1.88

2

3.79

4+

4.42

3

3.73

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

6.37

Un 1.5

4.12

5

18.87

Ov 2.5

2.02

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.97

Gg

1.98

Ov 3.5

4.42

NoG

2.02

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.90

4.12

4.34

2-3 goals

1.57

4.36

7.39

4+ goals

1.74

3.96

5.79

Ov 1.5

1.62

4.23

6.83

Un 1.5

1.90

4.12

4.34

Ov 2.5

1.43

8.67

5.43

Un 2.5

2.03

2.80

6.67

Ov 3.5

1.74

3.96

5.79

Un 3.5

1.66

4.28

6.05

Goal-Goal

2.07

2.83

6.17

No Goal

1.41

8.39

5.82

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.57

6.74

4.68

NG+Un 2.5

1.54

8.39

5.07


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Stoke vs Preston at 17 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Stoke and Preston for Championship (England), which will take place on 17 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Stoke

2.15

2.06

2.0

Draw

3.17

3.76

-4.9

Preston

3.64

4.02

-2.6

Over 2.5

2.49

2.12

7.0

Under 2.5

1.53

1.89

-12.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Stoke, Over 2.5 (2 %, 7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Stoke in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Stoke scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Stoke in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Stoke scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Stoke’s performance at home.
Stoke, at home, had 9 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 51.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Stoke scored in 17 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Stoke was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Birmingham

A

0

2

L

U

N

05 Apr

Millwall

H

1

2

L

O

G

02 Apr

Bristol City

A

2

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Derby

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Mar

Cardiff

A

0

0

D

U

N

13 Mar

Middlesbrough

A

0

3

L

O

N

06 Mar

Wycombe

H

2

0

W

U

N

03 Mar

Swansea

H

1

2

L

O

G


Preston in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Preston scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Preston in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Preston scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Preston’s performance as a guest.
Preston, as a guest, had 9 wins, one draw, 10 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Preston scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Preston was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Brentford

H

0

5

L

O

N

05 Apr

Swansea

A

1

0

W

U

N

02 Apr

Norwich

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Mar

Luton

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Mar

Middlesbrough

A

0

2

L

U

N

13 Mar

Wycombe

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Mar

Bournemouth

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Mar

Millwall

A

1

2

L

O

G


The form score for the Stoke is -0.185 and for the Preston is -0.563.
The home dynamic for the Stoke is -0.095 and the dynamic as a guest for the Preston is 0.004.
The offensive ability for the Stoke is -0.39 and for the Preston is -0.552.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Stoke is -0.037 and for the Preston is -0.565.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Stoke and the red line for guest team, Preston.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Stoke

21%

32%

28%

18%

Preston

34%

41%

16%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Stoke to score 1.23 goals and Preston to score 0.85 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.09 goals in the game and the home team Stoke to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Stoke to score 1.44 goals and Preston to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the home team Stoke to win by 0.43 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.89

0-1

3.73

1

5.10

2-3

1.96

2

3.85

4+

4.46

3

4.02

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.67

Un 1.5

3.73

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.11

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.89

Gg

1.92

Ov 3.5

4.46

NoG

2.09

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-