# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Reading vs Cardiff at 16 April 2021**** Blackburn vs Derby at 16 April 2021**** Swansea vs Wycombe at 17 April 2021**** Stoke vs Preston at 17 April 2021**** Sheffield Weds vs Bristol City at 17 April 2021**

<a href=‘#Nott’m Forest’>** Nott’m Forest vs Huddersfield at 17 April 2021**** Norwich vs Bournemouth at 17 April 2021**** Middlesbrough vs QPR at 17 April 2021**** Luton vs Watford at 17 April 2021**** Brentford vs Millwall at 17 April 2021**** Rotherham vs Birmingham at 18 April 2021**** Coventry vs Barnsley at 18 April 2021**

###
Reading vs Cardiff at 16 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Reading** and **Cardiff** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **16 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Reading |
2.15 |
2.31 |
-3.2 |

Draw |
3.25 |
3.69 |
-3.7 |

Cardiff |
3.55 |
3.37 |
1.5 |

Over 2.5 |
2.22 |
2.12 |
2.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.67 |
1.89 |
-7.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Cardiff, Over 2.5 (1.5 %, 2.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Reading** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Reading scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Reading** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Reading scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Reading’s performance** at home**.

Reading,** at home**, had 12 wins, one draw, 7 defeats, and gathered 37 points, 61.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Reading scored in 17 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 13 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Reading was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Apr |
Watford |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
Derby |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
Barnsley |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Mar |
QPR |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Mar |
Birmingham |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Nott’m Forest |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Mar |
Sheffield Weds |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

02 Mar |
Blackburn |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Cardiff** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Cardiff scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cardiff** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Cardiff scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cardiff’s performance** as a guest**.

Cardiff,** as a guest**, had 9 wins, 6 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 33 points, 55.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Cardiff scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cardiff was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Apr |
Blackburn |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Sheffield Weds |
A |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

02 Apr |
Nott’m Forest |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Swansea |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Mar |
Stoke |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Watford |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Mar |
Huddersfield |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Derby |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

The form score for the **Reading** is **-0.163** and for the **Cardiff** is **-0.429.**

The home dynamic for the **Reading** is **0.151** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Cardiff** is **-0.044.**

The offensive ability for the **Reading** is **0.433** and for the **Cardiff** is **-0.229.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Reading** is **-1** and for the **Cardiff** is **-0.278.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Reading** and the red line for guest team, **Cardiff. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Reading |
24% |
34% |
24% |
18% |

Cardiff |
32% |
37% |
20% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Reading** to score **1.33 ** goals and **Cardiff** to score **0.94 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.27** goals in the game and the home team **Reading ** to win by **0.39** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Reading** to score **1.35 ** goals and **Cardiff** to score **1.1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.45** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.25** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.99 |
0-1 |
3.61 |

1 |
5.00 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
3.97 |
4+ |
4.33 |

3 |
4.15 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |

4 |
6.62 |
Un 1.5 |
3.61 |

5 |
16.39 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.12 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.89 |

Gg |
1.94 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.33 |

NoG |
2.06 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.50 |
3.60 |
3.11 |

2-3 goals |
2.22 |
3.88 |
3.42 |

4+ goals |
2.31 |
3.45 |
3.61 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.25 |
3.73 |
3.48 |

Un 1.5 |
2.50 |
3.60 |
3.11 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.93 |
7.04 |
2.95 |

Un 2.5 |
2.81 |
2.59 |
3.86 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.31 |
3.45 |
3.61 |

Un 3.5 |
2.31 |
3.77 |
3.30 |

Goal-Goal |
2.74 |
2.65 |
3.87 |

No Goal |
1.98 |
6.31 |
2.96 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.06 |
5.79 |
2.92 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.14 |
6.31 |
2.93 |

####
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###
Blackburn vs Derby at 16 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Blackburn** and **Derby** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **16 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Blackburn |
2.16 |
1.96 |
4.7 |

Draw |
3.32 |
3.77 |
-3.6 |

Derby |
3.49 |
4.44 |
-6.1 |

Over 2.5 |
2.15 |
2.14 |
0.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.71 |
1.88 |
-5.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Blackburn, Over 2.5 (4.7 %, 0.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Blackburn** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Blackburn scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Blackburn** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Blackburn scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Blackburn’s performance** at home**.

Blackburn,** at home**, had 6 wins, 7 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 41.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Blackburn scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Blackburn was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Apr |
Cardiff |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Bournemouth |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Wycombe |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Norwich |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Mar |
Bristol City |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 Mar |
Brentford |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Swansea |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Mar |
Millwall |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Derby** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Derby scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Derby** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Derby scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Derby’s performance** as a guest**.

Derby,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 31.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Derby scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 14 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Derby was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Apr |
Norwich |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
Reading |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
Luton |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Stoke |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Mar |
Brentford |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Millwall |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Mar |
Barnsley |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Coventry |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Blackburn** is **-0.496** and for the **Derby** is **-0.611.**

The home dynamic for the **Blackburn** is **0.028** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Derby** is **-0.02.**

The offensive ability for the **Blackburn** is **-0.85** and for the **Derby** is **-0.193.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Blackburn** is **-0.704** and for the **Derby** is **-0.591.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Blackburn** and the red line for guest team, **Derby. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Blackburn |
20% |
34% |
25% |
22% |

Derby |
36% |
42% |
13% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Blackburn** to score **1.35 ** goals and **Derby** to score **0.96 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.32** goals in the game and the home team **Blackburn ** to win by **0.39** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Blackburn** to score **1.48 ** goals and **Derby** to score **0.96 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.44** goals in the game and the home team **Blackburn ** to win by **0.52** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.89 |
0-1 |
3.61 |

1 |
4.88 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
4.44 |

3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |

4 |
6.49 |
Un 1.5 |
3.61 |

5 |
19.61 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.14 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.88 |

Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.44 |

NoG |
2.05 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.27 |
3.85 |
3.34 |

2-3 goals |
1.85 |
3.54 |
5.67 |

4+ goals |
1.89 |
4.33 |
4.17 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.86 |
3.75 |
5.10 |

Un 1.5 |
2.27 |
3.85 |
3.34 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.56 |
9.00 |
4.03 |

Un 2.5 |
2.53 |
2.50 |
4.89 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.89 |
4.33 |
4.17 |

Un 3.5 |
1.98 |
3.64 |
4.54 |

Goal-Goal |
2.31 |
2.66 |
5.23 |

No Goal |
1.69 |
6.78 |
3.84 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.68 |
7.15 |
3.80 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.86 |
6.78 |
3.60 |

####
Go to Top

###
Swansea vs Wycombe at 17 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Swansea** and **Wycombe** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **17 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Swansea |
1.52 |
1.68 |
-6.3 |

Draw |
3.96 |
4.22 |
-1.6 |

Wycombe |
6.75 |
5.99 |
1.9 |

Over 2.5 |
2.07 |
2.02 |
1.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.76 |
1.98 |
-6.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Wycombe, Over 2.5 (1.9 %, 1.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Swansea** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Swansea scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

More recently, **Swansea** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Swansea scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Swansea’s performance** at home**.

Swansea,** at home**, had 11 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 38 points, 63.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Swansea scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 15 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Swansea was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Apr |
Sheffield Weds |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Millwall |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

05 Apr |
Preston |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Birmingham |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Cardiff |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Mar |
Bournemouth |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

13 Mar |
Luton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Blackburn |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Wycombe** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Wycombe scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Wycombe** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Wycombe** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wycombe’s performance** as a guest**.

Wycombe,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 13 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 21.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Wycombe scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 17 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Wycombe was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Apr |
Luton |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Rotherham |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

02 Apr |
Blackburn |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Coventry |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

17 Mar |
Barnsley |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Preston |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
QPR |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Stoke |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Swansea** is **-0.237** and for the **Wycombe** is **0.087.**

The home dynamic for the **Swansea** is **0.408** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Wycombe** is **-0.522.**

The offensive ability for the **Swansea** is **-0.786** and for the **Wycombe** is **0.614.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Swansea** is **-0.237** and for the **Wycombe** is **0.539.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Swansea** and the red line for guest team, **Wycombe. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Swansea |
14% |
31% |
30% |
25% |

Wycombe |
41% |
39% |
14% |
6% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Swansea** to score **1.76 ** goals and **Wycombe** to score **0.62 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.38** goals in the game and the home team **Swansea ** to win by **1.14** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Swansea** to score **1.65 ** goals and **Wycombe** to score **0.86 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.51** goals in the game and the home team **Swansea ** to win by **0.79** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
16.95 |
0-1 |
4.12 |

1 |
5.43 |
2-3 |
1.88 |

2 |
3.79 |
4+ |
4.42 |

3 |
3.73 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |

4 |
6.37 |
Un 1.5 |
4.12 |

5 |
18.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.97 |

Gg |
1.98 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.42 |

NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.90 |
4.12 |
4.34 |

2-3 goals |
1.57 |
4.36 |
7.39 |

4+ goals |
1.74 |
3.96 |
5.79 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.62 |
4.23 |
6.83 |

Un 1.5 |
1.90 |
4.12 |
4.34 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.43 |
8.67 |
5.43 |

Un 2.5 |
2.03 |
2.80 |
6.67 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.74 |
3.96 |
5.79 |

Un 3.5 |
1.66 |
4.28 |
6.05 |

Goal-Goal |
2.07 |
2.83 |
6.17 |

No Goal |
1.41 |
8.39 |
5.82 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.57 |
6.74 |
4.68 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.54 |
8.39 |
5.07 |

####
Go to Top

###
Stoke vs Preston at 17 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Stoke** and **Preston** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **17 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Stoke |
2.15 |
2.06 |
2.0 |

Draw |
3.17 |
3.76 |
-4.9 |

Preston |
3.64 |
4.02 |
-2.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.49 |
2.12 |
7.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.53 |
1.89 |
-12.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Stoke, Over 2.5 (2 %, 7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Stoke** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Stoke scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Stoke** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Stoke scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Stoke’s performance** at home**.

Stoke,** at home**, had 9 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 51.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Stoke scored in 17 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Stoke was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Apr |
Birmingham |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
Millwall |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
Bristol City |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Derby |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Mar |
Cardiff |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Middlesbrough |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

06 Mar |
Wycombe |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Mar |
Swansea |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Preston** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Preston scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Preston** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Preston scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Preston’s performance** as a guest**.

Preston,** as a guest**, had 9 wins, one draw, 10 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 46.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Preston scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Preston was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Apr |
Brentford |
H |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

05 Apr |
Swansea |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Norwich |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Mar |
Luton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Mar |
Middlesbrough |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Wycombe |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Bournemouth |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Mar |
Millwall |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Stoke** is **-0.185** and for the **Preston** is **-0.563.**

The home dynamic for the **Stoke** is **-0.095** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Preston** is **0.004.**

The offensive ability for the **Stoke** is **-0.39** and for the **Preston** is **-0.552.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Stoke** is **-0.037** and for the **Preston** is **-0.565.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Stoke** and the red line for guest team, **Preston. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Stoke |
21% |
32% |
28% |
18% |

Preston |
34% |
41% |
16% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Stoke** to score **1.23 ** goals and **Preston** to score **0.85 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.09** goals in the game and the home team **Stoke ** to win by **0.38** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Stoke** to score **1.44 ** goals and **Preston** to score **1.01 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.45** goals in the game and the home team **Stoke ** to win by **0.43** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.89 |
0-1 |
3.73 |

1 |
5.10 |
2-3 |
1.96 |

2 |
3.85 |
4+ |
4.46 |

3 |
4.02 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.67 |
Un 1.5 |
3.73 |

5 |
17.86 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.11 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.89 |

Gg |
1.92 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.46 |

NoG |
2.09 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |