2021 04 16 Conference (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Altrincham vs Sutton at 17 April 2021
Woking vs Wrexham at 17 April 2021
Wealdstone vs Hartlepool at 17 April 2021
Stockport vs Maidenhead at 17 April 2021
Notts County vs Eastleigh at 17 April 2021
Halifax vs King’s Lynn at 17 April 2021
Dag and Red vs Solihull at 17 April 2021
Barnet vs Aldershot at 17 April 2021
Yeovil vs Boreham Wood at 17 April 2021
Chesterfield vs Bromley at 17 April 2021


Altrincham vs Sutton at 17 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Altrincham and Sutton for Conference (England), which will take place on 17 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Altrincham

3.71

2.94

7.1

Draw

3.42

3.65

-1.8

Sutton

1.93

2.60

-13.4

Over 2.5

1.92

2.02

-2.6

Under 2.5

1.85

1.98

-3.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Altrincham (7.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Altrincham in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Altrincham scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Altrincham in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Altrincham scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Altrincham’s performance at home.
Altrincham, at home, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 40.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Altrincham scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Altrincham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Halifax

H

0

1

L

U

N

05 Apr

King’s Lynn

A

0

2

L

U

N

27 Mar

Maidenhead

A

1

0

W

U

N

23 Mar

King’s Lynn

H

3

0

W

O

N

20 Mar

Dag and Red

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Mar

Woking

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Aldershot

A

1

2

L

O

G

09 Mar

Hartlepool

H

1

1

D

U

G


Sutton in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Sutton scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sutton in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Sutton didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Sutton’s performance as a guest.
Sutton, as a guest, had 9 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 32 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sutton scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sutton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Apr

Torquay

H

0

1

L

U

N

05 Apr

Solihull

A

0

0

D

U

N

02 Apr

Boreham Wood

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Mar

Halifax

A

2

2

D

O

G

23 Mar

Bromley

A

3

1

W

O

G

20 Mar

Stockport

H

1

1

D

U

G

16 Mar

Chesterfield

A

1

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

King’s Lynn

A

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Altrincham is -0.2 and for the Sutton is -0.127.
The home dynamic for the Altrincham is -0.251 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sutton is 0.506.
The offensive ability for the Altrincham is -0.529 and for the Sutton is -0.345.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Altrincham is -0.333 and for the Sutton is -0.157.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Altrincham and the red line for guest team, Sutton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Altrincham

25%

40%

22%

13%

Sutton

26%

34%

24%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Altrincham to score 0.96 goals and Sutton to score 1.54 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the guest team Sutton to win by 0.58 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Altrincham to score 1.23 goals and Sutton to score 1.32 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.09 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.87

0-1

4.00

1

5.35

2-3

2.00

2

3.95

4+

3.98

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.13

Un 1.5

4.00

5

14.93

Ov 2.5

2.01

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

1.99

Gg

1.78

Ov 3.5

3.98

NoG

2.28

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.43

3.97

2.98

2-3 goals

3.08

3.64

2.50

4+ goals

3.30

3.39

2.49

Ov 1.5

3.15

3.55

2.49

Un 1.5

2.43

3.97

2.98

Ov 2.5

2.72

6.72

2.07

Un 2.5

3.18

2.51

3.47

Ov 3.5

3.30

3.39

2.49

Un 3.5

2.83

3.74

2.64

Goal-Goal

3.74

2.66

2.81

No Goal

2.30

6.97

2.37

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.83

5.73

2.12

NG+Un 2.5

2.32

6.97

2.52


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Woking vs Wrexham at 17 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Woking and Wrexham for Conference (England), which will take place on 17 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Woking

3.05

2.51

7.1

Draw

3.18

3.69

-4.3

Wrexham

2.28

3.03

-10.9

Over 2.5

2.27

2.00

5.9

Under 2.5

1.61

2.00

-12.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Woking, Over 2.5 (7.1 %, 5.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Woking in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Woking in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Woking’s performance at home.
Woking, at home, had 5 wins, 6 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 43.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Woking was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Apr

Bromley

H

3

4

L

O

G

10 Apr

Eastleigh

A

0

0

D

U

N

05 Apr

Notts County

H

2

4

L

O

G

02 Apr

Torquay

A

0

1

L

U

N

23 Mar

Wealdstone

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Hartlepool

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 Mar

Altrincham

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Yeovil

A

1

2

L

O

G


Wrexham in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wrexham in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Wrexham’s performance as a guest.
Wrexham, as a guest, had 7 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 47.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wrexham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Apr

Halifax

A

4

0

W

O

N

10 Apr

Stockport

H

0

3

L

O

N

05 Apr

Torquay

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Apr

Notts County

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Mar

Bromley

H

3

0

W

O

N

16 Mar

Eastleigh

H

2

2

D

O

G

13 Mar

Weymouth

H

2

0

W

U

N

09 Mar

Barnet

A

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Woking is -0.519 and for the Wrexham is -0.254.
The home dynamic for the Woking is -0.028 and the dynamic as a guest for the Wrexham is 0.044.
The offensive ability for the Woking is -0.39 and for the Wrexham is -0.256.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Woking is -0.333 and for the Wrexham is -0.191.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Woking and the red line for guest team, Wrexham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Woking

23%

37%

23%

17%

Wrexham

29%

35%

23%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Woking to score 0.99 goals and Wrexham to score 1.22 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.21 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.23 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Woking to score 1.34 goals and Wrexham to score 1.21 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.13 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.38

0-1

4.00

1

5.41

2-3

2.02

2

4.02

4+

3.94

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.17

Un 1.5

4.00

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

2.00

Gg

1.81

Ov 3.5

3.94

NoG

2.24

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.36

3.85

3.16

2-3 goals

2.52

3.80

2.94

4+ goals

2.65

3.34

3.10

Ov 1.5

2.56

3.63

2.99

Un 1.5

2.36

3.85

3.16

Ov 2.5

2.22

6.57

2.52

Un 2.5

2.88

2.56

3.81

Ov 3.5

2.65

3.34

3.10

Un 3.5

2.46

3.82

3.01

Goal-Goal

3.10

2.67

3.30

No Goal

2.03

6.88

2.76

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.37

5.54

2.52

NG+Un 2.5

2.13

6.88

2.82


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Wealdstone vs Hartlepool at 17 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Wealdstone and Hartlepool for Conference (England), which will take place on 17 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Wealdstone

5.50

2.72

18.6

Draw

3.98

3.66

2.2

Hartlepool

1.54

2.78

-29.0

Over 2.5

1.77

2.02

-7.0

Under 2.5

1.99

1.98

0.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Wealdstone, Draw, Under 2.5 (18.6 %, 2.2 %, 0.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Wealdstone in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wealdstone in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Wealdstone’s performance at home.
Wealdstone, at home, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 51.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wealdstone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Boreham Wood

A

1

3

L

O

G

05 Apr

Barnet

H

5

1

W

O

G

02 Apr

Bromley

A

2

2

D

O

G

30 Mar

Solihull

A

0

3

L

O

N

23 Mar

Woking

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Weymouth

A

0

4

L

O

N

13 Mar

Notts County

H

0

1

L

U

N

09 Mar

King’s Lynn

H

3

1

W

O

G


Hartlepool in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hartlepool in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hartlepool’s performance as a guest.
Hartlepool, as a guest, had 6 wins, 7 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 49.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Hartlepool was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Notts County

H

2

0

W

U

N

05 Apr

Boreham Wood

A

2

2

D

O

G

02 Apr

Dag and Red

H

2

1

W

O

G

27 Mar

Stockport

A

1

1

D

U

G

23 Mar

Dag and Red

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Woking

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Mar

King’s Lynn

A

2

2

D

O

G

13 Mar

Eastleigh

H

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Wealdstone is -0.459 and for the Hartlepool is 0.627.
The home dynamic for the Wealdstone is 0.061 and the dynamic as a guest for the Hartlepool is 0.036.
The offensive ability for the Wealdstone is -0.283 and for the Hartlepool is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Wealdstone is -1 and for the Hartlepool is 0.13.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wealdstone and the red line for guest team, Hartlepool.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Wealdstone

25%

38%

23%

15%

Hartlepool

27%

34%

24%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wealdstone to score 0.76 goals and Hartlepool to score 1.91 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.66 goals in the game and the guest team Hartlepool to win by 1.15 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wealdstone to score 1.27 goals and Hartlepool to score 1.26 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.01 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.93

0-1

3.92

1

5.32

2-3

2.02

2

4.00

4+

3.97

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.21

Un 1.5

3.92

5

14.49

Ov 2.5

2.01

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

1.98

Gg

1.81

Ov 3.5

3.97

NoG

2.22

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.48

3.81

3.00

2-3 goals

2.77

3.78

2.68

4+ goals

2.96

3.32

2.77

Ov 1.5

2.83

3.61

2.71

Un 1.5

2.48

3.81

3.00

Ov 2.5

2.45

6.54

2.28

Un 2.5

3.08

2.55

3.53

Ov 3.5

2.96

3.32

2.77

Un 3.5

2.66

3.79

2.78

Goal-Goal

3.38

2.66

3.04

No Goal

2.21

6.73

2.51

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.58

5.53

2.32

NG+Un 2.5

2.28

6.73

2.62


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Stockport vs Maidenhead at 17 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Stockport and Maidenhead for Conference (England), which will take place on 17 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Stockport

1.35

1.96

-23.1

Draw

4.60

4.02

3.1

Maidenhead

7.92

4.17

11.4

Over 2.5

1.93

1.95

-0.5

Under 2.5

1.83

2.05

-5.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Maidenhead (3.1 %, 11.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Stockport in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Stockport in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in 2 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Stockport’s performance at home.
Stockport, at home, had 8 wins, 7 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 60.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Stockport was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Apr

King’s Lynn

H

4

0

W

O

N

10 Apr

Wrexham

A

3

0

W

O

N

05 Apr

Bromley

H

0

0

D

U

N

02 Apr

Aldershot

A

2

1

W

O

G

27 Mar

Hartlepool

H

1

1

D

U

G

23 Mar

Eastleigh

H

3

0

W

O

N

20 Mar

Sutton

A

1

1

D

U

G

16 Mar

Barnet

H

2

1

W

O

G


Maidenhead in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Maidenhead in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Maidenhead’s performance as a guest.
Maidenhead, as a guest, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 45.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Maidenhead was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Barnet

H

0

0

D

U

N

05 Apr

Eastleigh

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Apr

Weymouth

A

1

2

L

O

G

27 Mar

Altrincham

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Mar

Torquay

H

4

1

W

O

G

13 Mar

Chesterfield

H

2

0

W

U

N

09 Mar

Dag and Red

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Mar

Solihull

A

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Stockport is 0.681 and for the Maidenhead is -0.325.
The home dynamic for the Stockport is 0.14 and the dynamic as a guest for the Maidenhead is 0.179.
The offensive ability for the Stockport is 0.497 and for the Maidenhead is -0.318.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Stockport is 0.385 and for the Maidenhead is -0.217.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Stockport and the red line for guest team, Maidenhead.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Stockport

22%

28%

26%

25%

Maidenhead

35%

37%

19%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Stockport to score 1.95 goals and Maidenhead to score 0.54 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the home team Stockport to win by 1.41 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Stockport to score 1.54 goals and Maidenhead to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and the home team Stockport to win by 0.53 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.16

0-1

3.97

1

5.68

2-3

2.04

2

4.26

4+

3.88

3

3.91

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.06

Un 1.5

3.97

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

1.95

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

2.05

Gg

1.97

Ov 3.5

3.88

NoG

2.03

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-