2021 04 16 La Liga (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Ath Madrid vs Eibar at 18 April 2021
Osasuna vs Elche at 18 April 2021
Sociedad vs Sevilla at 18 April 2021
Levante vs Villarreal at 18 April 2021
Betis vs Valencia at 18 April 2021
Alaves vs Huesca at 18 April 2021
Cadiz vs Celta at 18 April 2021


Ath Madrid vs Eibar at 18 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Ath Madrid and Eibar for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 18 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Ath Madrid

1.48

1.76

-10.7

Draw

4.34

4.27

0.4

Eibar

8.44

5.10

7.8

Over 2.5

2.17

1.98

4.4

Under 2.5

1.74

2.02

-8.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Eibar, Over 2.5 (0.4 %, 7.8 %, 4.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Ath Madrid in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Madrid scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ath Madrid in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Madrid scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ath Madrid’s performance at home.
Ath Madrid, at home, had 11 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 36 points, 80.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Madrid scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ath Madrid was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Apr

Betis

A

1

1

D

U

G

04 Apr

Sevilla

A

0

1

L

U

N

21 Mar

Alaves

H

1

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Getafe

A

0

0

D

U

N

10 Mar

Ath Bilbao

H

2

1

W

O

G

07 Mar

Real Madrid

H

1

1

D

U

G

28 Feb

Villarreal

A

2

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Levante

H

0

2

L

U

N


Eibar in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Eibar scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Eibar in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Eibar scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Eibar’s performance as a guest.
Eibar, as a guest, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 31.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Eibar scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Eibar was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Levante

H

0

1

L

U

N

03 Apr

Real Madrid

A

0

2

L

U

N

20 Mar

Ath Bilbao

A

1

1

D

U

G

14 Mar

Villarreal

H

1

3

L

O

G

06 Mar

Cadiz

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Feb

Huesca

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Elche

A

0

1

L

U

N

13 Feb

Valladolid

H

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Ath Madrid is 0.133 and for the Eibar is -0.81.
The home dynamic for the Ath Madrid is 0.732 and the dynamic as a guest for the Eibar is -0.259.
The offensive ability for the Ath Madrid is 0.005 and for the Eibar is -0.283.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Ath Madrid is -0.333 and for the Eibar is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Ath Madrid and the red line for guest team, Eibar.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Ath Madrid

19%

28%

26%

27%

Eibar

45%

30%

17%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ath Madrid to score 1.8 goals and Eibar to score 0.53 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and the home team Ath Madrid to win by 1.27 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ath Madrid to score 1.62 goals and Eibar to score 0.89 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the home team Ath Madrid to win by 0.73 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.90

0-1

3.77

1

5.52

2-3

2.03

2

4.33

4+

4.17

3

3.82

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.71

Un 1.5

3.77

5

14.93

Ov 2.5

1.99

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

2.02

Gg

2.23

Ov 3.5

4.17

NoG

1.82

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.12

3.15

4.73

2-3 goals

1.56

5.87

5.30

4+ goals

1.89

3.58

5.22

Ov 1.5

1.65

4.85

5.27

Un 1.5

2.12

3.15

4.73

Ov 2.5

1.54

7.49

4.65

Un 2.5

2.06

2.95

5.70

Ov 3.5

1.89

3.58

5.22

Un 3.5

1.72

4.51

5.09

Goal-Goal

2.19

2.97

4.87

No Goal

1.52

6.55

5.34

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.78

5.43

3.96

NG+Un 2.5

1.71

6.55

4.74


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Osasuna vs Elche at 18 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Osasuna and Elche for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 18 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Osasuna

1.96

2.05

-2.2

Draw

3.29

3.86

-4.5

Elche

4.48

3.95

3.0

Over 2.5

2.50

1.96

11.0

Under 2.5

1.55

2.04

-15.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Elche, Over 2.5 (3 %, 11 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Osasuna in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Osasuna scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Osasuna in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Osasuna scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Osasuna’s performance at home.
Osasuna, at home, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 37.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Osasuna scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Osasuna was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Apr

Villarreal

A

2

1

W

O

G

03 Apr

Getafe

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Mar

Huesca

A

0

0

D

U

N

13 Mar

Valladolid

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Barcelona

H

0

2

L

U

N

27 Feb

Alaves

A

1

0

W

U

N

22 Feb

Sevilla

H

0

2

L

U

N

14 Feb

Levante

A

1

0

W

U

N


Elche in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Elche scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Elche in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Elche scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Elche’s performance as a guest.
Elche, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 20.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Elche scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Elche was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Apr

Huesca

A

1

3

L

O

G

04 Apr

Betis

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Mar

Getafe

A

1

1

D

U

G

17 Mar

Sevilla

A

0

2

L

U

N

13 Mar

Real Madrid

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Mar

Sevilla

H

2

1

W

O

G

28 Feb

Granada

A

1

2

L

O

G

24 Feb

Barcelona

A

0

3

L

O

N


The form score for the Osasuna is 0.185 and for the Elche is -0.468.
The home dynamic for the Osasuna is -0.274 and the dynamic as a guest for the Elche is -0.522.
The offensive ability for the Osasuna is -0.925 and for the Elche is 0.614.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Osasuna is 0.311 and for the Elche is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Osasuna and the red line for guest team, Elche.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Osasuna

21%

31%

25%

23%

Elche

32%

40%

18%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Osasuna to score 1.34 goals and Elche to score 0.76 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.1 goals in the game and the home team Osasuna to win by 0.58 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Osasuna to score 1.51 goals and Elche to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and the home team Osasuna to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.15

0-1

4.02

1

5.46

2-3

2.03

2

4.12

4+

3.86

3

4.00

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

5.92

Un 1.5

4.02

5

14.93

Ov 2.5

1.96

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.03

Gg

1.85

Ov 3.5

3.86

NoG

2.17

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.49

3.77

3.00

2-3 goals

1.95

3.94

4.29

4+ goals

1.90

3.75

4.80

Ov 1.5

1.93

3.88

4.45

Un 1.5

2.49

3.77

3.00

Ov 2.5

1.65

7.38

3.89

Un 2.5

2.73

2.58

4.07

Ov 3.5

1.90

3.75

4.80

Un 3.5

2.10

3.88

3.75

Goal-Goal

2.30

2.78

4.86

No Goal

1.81

6.98

3.27

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.77

6.01

3.74

NG+Un 2.5

2.04

6.98

3.03


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Sociedad vs Sevilla at 18 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sociedad and Sevilla for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 18 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sociedad

2.91

2.18

11.5

Draw

3.35

3.88

-4.1

Sevilla

2.54

3.53

-11.0

Over 2.5

2.12

1.93

4.6

Under 2.5

1.74

2.07

-9.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Sociedad, Over 2.5 (11.5 %, 4.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sociedad in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sociedad scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sociedad in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Sociedad scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Sociedad’s performance at home.
Sociedad, at home, had 6 wins, 6 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 53.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sociedad scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sociedad was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Apr

Valencia

A

2

2

D

O

G

07 Apr

Ath Bilbao

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Mar

Barcelona

H

1

6

L

O

G

14 Mar

Granada

A

0

1

L

U

N

07 Mar

Levante

H

1

0

W

U

N

01 Mar

Real Madrid

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Feb

Alaves

H

4

0

W

O

N

14 Feb

Getafe

A

1

0

W

U

N


Sevilla in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sevilla in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sevilla’s performance as a guest.
Sevilla, as a guest, had 8 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 60.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sevilla was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Apr

Celta

A

4

3

W

O

G

04 Apr

Ath Madrid

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Valladolid

A

1

1

D

U

G

17 Mar

Elche

H

2

0

W

U

N

14 Mar

Betis

H

1

0

W

U

N

06 Mar

Elche

A

1

2

L

O

G

27 Feb

Barcelona

H

0

2

L

U

N

22 Feb

Osasuna

A

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Sociedad is -0.185 and for the Sevilla is 0.524.
The home dynamic for the Sociedad is 0.24 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sevilla is 0.41.
The offensive ability for the Sociedad is 0.54 and for the Sevilla is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Sociedad is -0.704 and for the Sevilla is 0.157.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sociedad and the red line for guest team, Sevilla.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sociedad

23%

28%

29%

20%

Sevilla

30%

38%

20%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sociedad to score 1.12 goals and Sevilla to score 1.23 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.11 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sociedad to score 1.46 goals and Sevilla to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.59 goals in the game and the home team Sociedad to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.29

0-1

4.13

1

5.81

2-3

2.03

2

4.17

4+

3.76

3

3.95

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

5.99

Un 1.5

4.13

5

13.33

Ov 2.5

1.93

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

2.07

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

3.76

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.36

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.81

3.46

2.81

2-3 goals

1.93

4.61

3.79

4+ goals

2.27

3.24

3.97

Ov 1.5

2.03

4.02

3.85

Un 1.5

2.81

3.46

2.81

Ov 2.5

1.81

6.33

3.44

Un 2.5

2.79

2.72

3.65

Ov 3.5

2.27

3.24

3.97

Un 3.5

2.15

4.15

3.40

Goal-Goal

2.39

2.85

4.34

No Goal

1.98

6.61

2.91

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.92

5.26

3.48

NG+Un 2.5

2.17

6.61

2.84


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Levante vs Villarreal at 18 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Levante and Villarreal for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 18 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Levante

3.83

2.49

14.1

Draw

3.36

3.73

-3.0

Villarreal

2.06

3.02

-15.4

Over 2.5

1.91

2.01

-2.6

Under 2.5

1.92

1.99

-1.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Levante (14.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Levante in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Levante in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Levante’s performance at home.
Levante, at home, had 5 wins, 7 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 48.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Levante was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Eibar

A

1

0

W

U

N

02 Apr

Huesca

H

0

2

L

U

N

19 Mar

Betis

A

0

2

L

U

N

12 Mar

Valencia

H

1

0

W

U

N

07 Mar

Sociedad

A

0

1

L

U

N

26 Feb

Ath Bilbao

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Ath Madrid

A

2

0

W

U

N

17 Feb

Ath Madrid

H

1

1

D

U

G


Villarreal in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Villarreal scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Villarreal in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Villarreal scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Villarreal’s performance as a guest.
Villarreal, as a guest, had 5 wins, 7 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 48.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Villarreal scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Villarreal was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Apr

Osasuna

H

1

2

L

O

G

03 Apr

Granada

A

3

0

W

O

N

21 Mar

Cadiz

H

2

1

W

O

G

14 Mar

Eibar

A

3

1

W

O

G

05 Mar

Valencia

A

1

2

L

O

G

28 Feb

Ath Madrid

H

0

2

L

U

N

21 Feb

Ath Bilbao

A

1

1

D

U

G

14 Feb

Betis

H

1

2

L

O

G


The form score for the Levante is -0.148 and for the Villarreal is -0.032.
The home dynamic for the Levante is 0.084 and the dynamic as a guest for the Villarreal is 0.116.
The offensive ability for the Levante is -0.465 and for the Villarreal is 0.668.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Levante is -0.281 and for the Villarreal is -0.565.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Levante and the red line for guest team, Villarreal.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Levante

25%

36%

22%

18%

Villarreal

30%

34%

22%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Levante to score 1 goals and Villarreal to score 1.55 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the guest team Villarreal to win by 0.55 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Levante to score 1.34 goals and Villarreal to score 1.21 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.13 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.70

0-1

3.80

1

5.26

2-3

2.08

2

4.17

4+

3.91

3

4.15

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.25

Un 1.5

3.80

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

2.01

6+

38.46

Un 2.5

1.99

Gg

1.89

Ov 3.5

3.91

NoG

2.13

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-