# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Ath Madrid vs Eibar at 18 April 2021**** Osasuna vs Elche at 18 April 2021**** Sociedad vs Sevilla at 18 April 2021**** Levante vs Villarreal at 18 April 2021**** Betis vs Valencia at 18 April 2021**** Alaves vs Huesca at 18 April 2021**** Cadiz vs Celta at 18 April 2021**

###
Ath Madrid vs Eibar at 18 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Ath Madrid** and **Eibar** for **La Liga (Spain)**, which will take place on **18 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Ath Madrid |
1.48 |
1.76 |
-10.7 |

Draw |
4.34 |
4.27 |
0.4 |

Eibar |
8.44 |
5.10 |
7.8 |

Over 2.5 |
2.17 |
1.98 |
4.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.74 |
2.02 |
-8.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Eibar, Over 2.5 (0.4 %, 7.8 %, 4.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **remains the same .**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Ath Madrid** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Ath Madrid scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Ath Madrid** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Ath Madrid scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ath Madrid’s performance** at home**.

Ath Madrid,** at home**, had 11 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 36 points, 80.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Ath Madrid scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Ath Madrid was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

11 Apr |
Betis |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

04 Apr |
Sevilla |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Mar |
Alaves |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Getafe |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

10 Mar |
Ath Bilbao |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Mar |
Real Madrid |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Feb |
Villarreal |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Levante |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Eibar** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Eibar scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Eibar** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Eibar scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Eibar’s performance** as a guest**.

Eibar,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 31.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Eibar scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Eibar was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Apr |
Levante |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Apr |
Real Madrid |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Ath Bilbao |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Mar |
Villarreal |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Cadiz |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Huesca |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Feb |
Elche |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Valladolid |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **Ath Madrid** is **0.133** and for the **Eibar** is **-0.81.**

The home dynamic for the **Ath Madrid** is **0.732** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Eibar** is **-0.259.**

The offensive ability for the **Ath Madrid** is **0.005** and for the **Eibar** is **-0.283.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Ath Madrid** is **-0.333** and for the **Eibar** is **-1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Ath Madrid** and the red line for guest team, **Eibar. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Ath Madrid |
19% |
28% |
26% |
27% |

Eibar |
45% |
30% |
17% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Ath Madrid** to score **1.8 ** goals and **Eibar** to score **0.53 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.33** goals in the game and the home team **Ath Madrid ** to win by **1.27** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Ath Madrid** to score **1.62 ** goals and **Eibar** to score **0.89 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.51** goals in the game and the home team **Ath Madrid ** to win by **0.73** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.90 |
0-1 |
3.77 |

1 |
5.52 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
4.33 |
4+ |
4.17 |

3 |
3.82 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.71 |
Un 1.5 |
3.77 |

5 |
14.93 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |

6+ |
41.67 |
Un 2.5 |
2.02 |

Gg |
2.23 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.17 |

NoG |
1.82 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.12 |
3.15 |
4.73 |

2-3 goals |
1.56 |
5.87 |
5.30 |

4+ goals |
1.89 |
3.58 |
5.22 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.65 |
4.85 |
5.27 |

Un 1.5 |
2.12 |
3.15 |
4.73 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.54 |
7.49 |
4.65 |

Un 2.5 |
2.06 |
2.95 |
5.70 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.89 |
3.58 |
5.22 |

Un 3.5 |
1.72 |
4.51 |
5.09 |

Goal-Goal |
2.19 |
2.97 |
4.87 |

No Goal |
1.52 |
6.55 |
5.34 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.78 |
5.43 |
3.96 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.71 |
6.55 |
4.74 |

####
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###
Osasuna vs Elche at 18 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Osasuna** and **Elche** for **La Liga (Spain)**, which will take place on **18 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Osasuna |
1.96 |
2.05 |
-2.2 |

Draw |
3.29 |
3.86 |
-4.5 |

Elche |
4.48 |
3.95 |
3.0 |

Over 2.5 |
2.50 |
1.96 |
11.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.55 |
2.04 |
-15.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Elche, Over 2.5 (3 %, 11 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **remains the same .**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Osasuna** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Osasuna scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Osasuna** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Osasuna scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Osasuna’s performance** at home**.

Osasuna,** at home**, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 37.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Osasuna scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Osasuna was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

11 Apr |
Villarreal |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Apr |
Getafe |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Huesca |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Valladolid |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Barcelona |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Alaves |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

22 Feb |
Sevilla |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Levante |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Elche** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Elche scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Elche** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Elche** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Elche’s performance** as a guest**.

Elche,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 20.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Elche scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Elche was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Apr |
Huesca |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

04 Apr |
Betis |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Mar |
Getafe |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Mar |
Sevilla |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Real Madrid |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Sevilla |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Feb |
Granada |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Feb |
Barcelona |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

The form score for the **Osasuna** is **0.185** and for the **Elche** is **-0.468.**

The home dynamic for the **Osasuna** is **-0.274** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Elche** is **-0.522.**

The offensive ability for the **Osasuna** is **-0.925** and for the **Elche** is **0.614.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Osasuna** is **0.311** and for the **Elche** is **-1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Osasuna** and the red line for guest team, **Elche. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Osasuna |
21% |
31% |
25% |
23% |

Elche |
32% |
40% |
18% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Osasuna** to score **1.34 ** goals and **Elche** to score **0.76 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.1** goals in the game and the home team **Osasuna ** to win by **0.58** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Osasuna** to score **1.51 ** goals and **Elche** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.57** goals in the game and the home team **Osasuna ** to win by **0.45** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
15.15 |
0-1 |
4.02 |

1 |
5.46 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
4.12 |
4+ |
3.86 |

3 |
4.00 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
5.92 |
Un 1.5 |
4.02 |

5 |
14.93 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.96 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.03 |

Gg |
1.85 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.86 |

NoG |
2.17 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.49 |
3.77 |
3.00 |

2-3 goals |
1.95 |
3.94 |
4.29 |

4+ goals |
1.90 |
3.75 |
4.80 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.93 |
3.88 |
4.45 |

Un 1.5 |
2.49 |
3.77 |
3.00 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.65 |
7.38 |
3.89 |

Un 2.5 |
2.73 |
2.58 |
4.07 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.90 |
3.75 |
4.80 |

Un 3.5 |
2.10 |
3.88 |
3.75 |

Goal-Goal |
2.30 |
2.78 |
4.86 |

No Goal |
1.81 |
6.98 |
3.27 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.77 |
6.01 |
3.74 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.04 |
6.98 |
3.03 |

####
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###
Sociedad vs Sevilla at 18 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Sociedad** and **Sevilla** for **La Liga (Spain)**, which will take place on **18 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Sociedad |
2.91 |
2.18 |
11.5 |

Draw |
3.35 |
3.88 |
-4.1 |

Sevilla |
2.54 |
3.53 |
-11.0 |

Over 2.5 |
2.12 |
1.93 |
4.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.74 |
2.07 |
-9.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Sociedad, Over 2.5 (11.5 %, 4.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **remains the same .**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Sociedad** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Sociedad scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sociedad** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Sociedad** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Sociedad’s performance** at home**.

Sociedad,** at home**, had 6 wins, 6 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 53.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Sociedad scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sociedad was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

11 Apr |
Valencia |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

07 Apr |
Ath Bilbao |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Mar |
Barcelona |
H |
1 |
6 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Mar |
Granada |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Mar |
Levante |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Mar |
Real Madrid |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Feb |
Alaves |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

14 Feb |
Getafe |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Sevilla** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Sevilla** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sevilla** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Sevilla** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sevilla’s performance** as a guest**.

Sevilla,** as a guest**, had 8 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 60.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Sevilla scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sevilla was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Apr |
Celta |
A |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

04 Apr |
Ath Madrid |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Valladolid |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Mar |
Elche |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

14 Mar |
Betis |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Elche |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Barcelona |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

22 Feb |
Osasuna |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Sociedad** is **-0.185** and for the **Sevilla** is **0.524.**

The home dynamic for the **Sociedad** is **0.24** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Sevilla** is **0.41.**

The offensive ability for the **Sociedad** is **0.54** and for the **Sevilla** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Sociedad** is **-0.704** and for the **Sevilla** is **0.157.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Sociedad** and the red line for guest team, **Sevilla. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Sociedad |
23% |
28% |
29% |
20% |

Sevilla |
30% |
38% |
20% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Sociedad** to score **1.12 ** goals and **Sevilla** to score **1.23 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.35** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.11** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Sociedad** to score **1.46 ** goals and **Sevilla** to score **1.13 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.59** goals in the game and the home team **Sociedad ** to win by **0.33** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.29 |
0-1 |
4.13 |

1 |
5.81 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
4.17 |
4+ |
3.76 |

3 |
3.95 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |

4 |
5.99 |
Un 1.5 |
4.13 |

5 |
13.33 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.93 |

6+ |
41.67 |
Un 2.5 |
2.07 |

Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.76 |

NoG |
2.16 |
Un 3.5 |
1.36 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.81 |
3.46 |
2.81 |

2-3 goals |
1.93 |
4.61 |
3.79 |

4+ goals |
2.27 |
3.24 |
3.97 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.03 |
4.02 |
3.85 |

Un 1.5 |
2.81 |
3.46 |
2.81 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.81 |
6.33 |
3.44 |

Un 2.5 |
2.79 |
2.72 |
3.65 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.27 |
3.24 |
3.97 |

Un 3.5 |
2.15 |
4.15 |
3.40 |

Goal-Goal |
2.39 |
2.85 |
4.34 |

No Goal |
1.98 |
6.61 |
2.91 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.92 |
5.26 |
3.48 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.17 |
6.61 |
2.84 |

####
Go to Top

###
Levante vs Villarreal at 18 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Levante** and **Villarreal** for **La Liga (Spain)**, which will take place on **18 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Levante |
3.83 |
2.49 |
14.1 |

Draw |
3.36 |
3.73 |
-3.0 |

Villarreal |
2.06 |
3.02 |
-15.4 |

Over 2.5 |
1.91 |
2.01 |
-2.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.92 |
1.99 |
-1.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Levante (14.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **remains the same .**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Levante** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Levante scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Levante** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Levante scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Levante’s performance** at home**.

Levante,** at home**, had 5 wins, 7 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 48.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Levante scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Levante was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Apr |
Eibar |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Huesca |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Mar |
Betis |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Mar |
Valencia |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Mar |
Sociedad |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Feb |
Ath Bilbao |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Feb |
Ath Madrid |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Feb |
Ath Madrid |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Villarreal** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Villarreal scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Villarreal** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Villarreal** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Villarreal’s performance** as a guest**.

Villarreal,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 7 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 48.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Villarreal scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Villarreal was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

11 Apr |
Osasuna |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Apr |
Granada |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

21 Mar |
Cadiz |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

14 Mar |
Eibar |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Mar |
Valencia |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Feb |
Ath Madrid |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Feb |
Ath Bilbao |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Feb |
Betis |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Levante** is **-0.148** and for the **Villarreal** is **-0.032.**

The home dynamic for the **Levante** is **0.084** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Villarreal** is **0.116.**

The offensive ability for the **Levante** is **-0.465** and for the **Villarreal** is **0.668.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Levante** is **-0.281** and for the **Villarreal** is **-0.565.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Levante** and the red line for guest team, **Villarreal. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Levante |
25% |
36% |
22% |
18% |

Villarreal |
30% |
34% |
22% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Levante** to score **1 ** goals and **Villarreal** to score **1.55 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.54** goals in the game and the guest team **Villarreal ** to win by **0.55** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Levante** to score **1.34 ** goals and **Villarreal** to score **1.21 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.55** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.13** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.70 |
0-1 |
3.80 |

1 |
5.26 |
2-3 |
2.08 |

2 |
4.17 |
4+ |
3.91 |

3 |
4.15 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.25 |
Un 1.5 |
3.80 |

5 |
14.29 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |

6+ |
38.46 |
Un 2.5 |
1.99 |

Gg |
1.89 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.91 |

NoG |
2.13 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |