2021 04 16 League One (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Peterboro vs Northampton at 16 April 2021
Oxford vs Gillingham at 17 April 2021
Wigan vs Crewe at 17 April 2021
Shrewsbury vs Doncaster at 17 April 2021
Rochdale vs Accrington at 17 April 2021
Bristol Rvs vs Lincoln at 17 April 2021
Hull vs Fleetwood Town at 17 April 2021
Burton vs Plymouth at 17 April 2021
Blackpool vs Sunderland at 17 April 2021
AFC Wimbledon vs Swindon at 17 April 2021
Charlton vs Ipswich at 17 April 2021
Milton Keynes Dons vs Portsmouth at 17 April 2021


Peterboro vs Northampton at 16 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Peterboro and Northampton for League One (England), which will take place on 16 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Peterboro

1.46

1.81

-13.2

Draw

4.21

3.98

1.4

Northampton

6.94

5.08

5.3

Over 2.5

1.99

2.13

-3.3

Under 2.5

1.82

1.89

-2.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Northampton (1.4 %, 5.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Peterboro in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Peterboro in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Peterboro’s performance at home.
Peterboro, at home, had 14 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 45 points, 78.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in 18 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 13 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Peterboro was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Swindon

A

3

0

W

O

N

05 Apr

Sunderland

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Apr

Fleetwood Town

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Mar

Accrington

H

7

0

W

O

N

23 Mar

Blackpool

A

1

3

L

O

G

20 Mar

Rochdale

A

3

3

D

O

G

16 Mar

Portsmouth

H

1

0

W

U

N

09 Mar

Hull

H

1

3

L

O

G


Northampton in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Northampton in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Northampton’s performance as a guest.
Northampton, as a guest, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 12 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 23.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Northampton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Bristol Rvs

H

1

1

D

U

G

05 Apr

Hull

A

0

3

L

O

N

02 Apr

Shrewsbury

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Mar

AFC Wimbledon

A

0

1

L

U

N

23 Mar

Oxford

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Crewe

H

0

1

L

U

N

13 Mar

Doncaster

A

0

0

D

U

N

09 Mar

Charlton

A

1

2

L

O

G


The form score for the Peterboro is 0.385 and for the Northampton is -0.246.
The home dynamic for the Peterboro is 0.598 and the dynamic as a guest for the Northampton is -0.299.
The offensive ability for the Peterboro is 1 and for the Northampton is -0.166.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Peterboro is 0.059 and for the Northampton is -0.243.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Peterboro and the red line for guest team, Northampton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Peterboro

14%

37%

29%

20%

Northampton

40%

36%

14%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Peterboro to score 1.85 goals and Northampton to score 0.6 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the home team Peterboro to win by 1.25 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Peterboro to score 1.55 goals and Northampton to score 0.92 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the home team Peterboro to win by 0.63 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

17.24

0-1

3.86

1

4.98

2-3

1.92

2

3.70

4+

4.55

3

4.00

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.80

Un 1.5

3.86

5

18.18

Ov 2.5

2.13

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.89

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

4.55

NoG

2.04

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.73

4.47

5.08

2-3 goals

1.73

3.88

6.05

4+ goals

2.18

3.73

3.67

Ov 1.5

1.85

3.83

5.07

Un 1.5

1.73

4.47

5.08

Ov 2.5

1.65

7.97

3.73

Un 2.5

1.99

2.76

7.45

Ov 3.5

2.18

3.73

3.67

Un 3.5

1.73

4.06

5.69

Goal-Goal

2.50

2.64

4.51

No Goal

1.41

8.43

5.82

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.84

6.37

3.33

NG+Un 2.5

1.48

8.43

5.56


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Oxford vs Gillingham at 17 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Oxford and Gillingham for League One (England), which will take place on 17 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Oxford

2.05

2.27

-4.7

Draw

3.39

3.76

-2.9

Gillingham

3.60

3.40

1.6

Over 2.5

1.96

2.04

-2.0

Under 2.5

1.85

1.96

-3.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Gillingham (1.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Oxford in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Oxford in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Oxford’s performance at home.
Oxford, at home, had 10 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 34 points, 56.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Oxford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Apr

Shrewsbury

H

4

1

W

O

G

10 Apr

Crewe

A

6

0

W

O

N

05 Apr

Accrington

H

1

2

L

O

G

02 Apr

Sunderland

A

1

3

L

O

G

26 Mar

Lincoln

H

2

1

W

O

G

23 Mar

Northampton

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Blackpool

H

0

2

L

U

N

16 Mar

Doncaster

H

3

0

W

O

N


Gillingham in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Gillingham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Gillingham in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Gillingham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Gillingham’s performance as a guest.
Gillingham, as a guest, had 8 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Gillingham scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Gillingham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Shrewsbury

H

0

0

D

U

N

05 Apr

Blackpool

A

1

4

L

O

G

31 Mar

Wigan

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Mar

Hull

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Mar

Doncaster

H

2

2

D

O

G

16 Mar

Lincoln

A

3

0

W

O

N

13 Mar

Swindon

A

3

1

W

O

G

09 Mar

Fleetwood Town

A

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Oxford is 0.059 and for the Gillingham is 0.063.
The home dynamic for the Oxford is 0.296 and the dynamic as a guest for the Gillingham is -0.004.
The offensive ability for the Oxford is 0.604 and for the Gillingham is 0.525.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Oxford is -0.63 and for the Gillingham is 0.191.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Oxford and the red line for guest team, Gillingham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Oxford

23%

32%

26%

18%

Gillingham

32%

36%

21%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Oxford to score 1.49 goals and Gillingham to score 1 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the home team Oxford to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Oxford to score 1.39 goals and Gillingham to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.28 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.80

1

5.32

2-3

2.02

2

4.02

4+

4.12

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.41

Un 1.5

3.80

5

14.93

Ov 2.5

2.05

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.95

Gg

1.92

Ov 3.5

4.12

NoG

2.09

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.55

3.51

3.09

2-3 goals

2.11

4.26

3.43

4+ goals

2.36

3.24

3.74

Ov 1.5

2.19

3.86

3.53

Un 1.5

2.55

3.51

3.09

Ov 2.5

1.92

6.51

3.07

Un 2.5

2.75

2.68

3.79

Ov 3.5

2.36

3.24

3.74

Un 3.5

2.25

3.96

3.31

Goal-Goal

2.64

2.73

3.92

No Goal

1.97

6.39

2.98

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.06

5.40

3.05

NG+Un 2.5

2.13

6.39

2.93


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Wigan vs Crewe at 17 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Wigan and Crewe for League One (England), which will take place on 17 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Wigan

2.68

2.52

2.4

Draw

3.27

3.75

-3.9

Crewe

2.60

2.98

-4.9

Over 2.5

2.12

2.00

2.8

Under 2.5

1.71

2.00

-8.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Wigan, Over 2.5 (2.4 %, 2.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Wigan in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Wigan scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wigan in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Wigan scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wigan’s performance at home.
Wigan, at home, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 28.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Wigan scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wigan was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Apr

Sunderland

H

2

1

W

O

G

10 Apr

Doncaster

A

4

1

W

O

G

05 Apr

Portsmouth

H

0

1

L

U

N

31 Mar

Gillingham

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Mar

Ipswich

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Mar

Accrington

A

1

3

L

O

G

16 Mar

AFC Wimbledon

A

1

1

D

U

G

09 Mar

Plymouth

A

2

0

W

U

N


Crewe in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Crewe scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Crewe in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Crewe scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Crewe’s performance as a guest.
Crewe, as a guest, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 38.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Crewe scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crewe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Apr

Portsmouth

H

0

0

D

U

N

10 Apr

Oxford

H

0

6

L

O

N

05 Apr

Milton Keynes Dons

A

2

0

W

U

N

02 Apr

Hull

H

1

2

L

O

G

20 Mar

Northampton

A

1

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Burton

H

0

3

L

O

N

09 Mar

Doncaster

H

1

0

W

U

N

06 Mar

Lincoln

A

0

3

L

O

N


The form score for the Wigan is -0.089 and for the Crewe is -0.246.
The home dynamic for the Wigan is -0.542 and the dynamic as a guest for the Crewe is -0.187.
The offensive ability for the Wigan is -0.39 and for the Crewe is -0.256.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Wigan is -0.704 and for the Crewe is 0.217.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wigan and the red line for guest team, Crewe.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Wigan

27%

31%

25%

17%

Crewe

27%

37%

24%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wigan to score 1.15 goals and Crewe to score 1.18 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.03 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wigan to score 1.33 goals and Crewe to score 1.21 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.70

0-1

3.91

1

5.46

2-3

2.04

2

4.07

4+

3.94

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.21

Un 1.5

3.91

5

13.89

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

1.99

Gg

1.87

Ov 3.5

3.94

NoG

2.14

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.01

3.51

2.61

2-3 goals

2.37

4.27

2.91

4+ goals

2.42

3.17

3.68

Ov 1.5

2.39

3.82

3.13

Un 1.5

3.01

3.51

2.61

Ov 2.5

2.05

6.24

2.85

Un 2.5

3.28

2.67

3.12

Ov 3.5

2.42

3.17

3.68

Un 3.5

2.56

3.97

2.80

Goal-Goal

2.71

2.74

3.76

No Goal

2.34

6.40

2.41

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.13

5.24

2.95

NG+Un 2.5

2.53

6.40

2.40


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Shrewsbury vs Doncaster at 17 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Shrewsbury and Doncaster for League One (England), which will take place on 17 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Shrewsbury

2.28

2.42

-2.5

Draw

3.20

3.62

-3.6

Doncaster

3.22

3.23

-0.1

Over 2.5

2.28

2.15

2.7

Under 2.5

1.62

1.87

-8.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Over 2.5 (2.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Shrewsbury in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Shrewsbury in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Shrewsbury’s performance at home.
Shrewsbury, at home, had 5 wins, 7 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 40.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Shrewsbury was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Apr

Oxford

A

1

4

L

O

G

10 Apr

Gillingham

A

0

0

D

U

N

05 Apr

Plymouth

H

3

0

W

O

N

02 Apr

Northampton

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Mar

Portsmouth

H

1

2

L

O

G

23 Mar

Burton

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Mar

Hull

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Charlton

A

1

1

D

U

G


Doncaster in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Doncaster scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Doncaster in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Doncaster scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Doncaster’s performance as a guest.
Doncaster, as a guest, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 37.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Doncaster scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Doncaster was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Apr

Burton

H

0

3

L

O

N

10 Apr

Wigan

H

1

4

L

O

G

05 Apr

Bristol Rvs

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Apr

Charlton

H

0

1

L

U

N

27 Mar

Milton Keynes Dons

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Gillingham

A

2

2

D

O

G

16 Mar

Oxford

A

0

3

L

O

N

13 Mar

Northampton

H

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Shrewsbury is -0.2 and for the Doncaster is -1.
The home dynamic for the Shrewsbury is -0.162 and the dynamic as a guest for the Doncaster is 0.06.
The offensive ability for the Shrewsbury is 0.005 and for the Doncaster is -0.229.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Shrewsbury is -0.281 and for the Doncaster is -1.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Shrewsbury and the red line for guest team, Doncaster.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Shrewsbury

24%

37%

23%

16%

Doncaster

31%

36%

23%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Shrewsbury to score 1.24 goals and Doncaster to score 0.97 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.21 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.27 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Shrewsbury to score 1.31 goals and Doncaster to score 1.12 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.64

1

5.00

2-3

1.99

2

3.85

4+

4.46

3

4.13

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.71

Un 1.5

3.64

5

16.95

Ov 2.5

2.15

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.87

Gg

1.90

Ov 3.5

4.46

NoG

2.10

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-