# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Peterboro vs Northampton at 16 April 2021**** Oxford vs Gillingham at 17 April 2021**** Wigan vs Crewe at 17 April 2021**** Shrewsbury vs Doncaster at 17 April 2021**** Rochdale vs Accrington at 17 April 2021**** Bristol Rvs vs Lincoln at 17 April 2021**** Hull vs Fleetwood Town at 17 April 2021**** Burton vs Plymouth at 17 April 2021**** Blackpool vs Sunderland at 17 April 2021**** AFC Wimbledon vs Swindon at 17 April 2021**** Charlton vs Ipswich at 17 April 2021**** Milton Keynes Dons vs Portsmouth at 17 April 2021**

###
Peterboro vs Northampton at 16 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Peterboro** and **Northampton** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **16 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Peterboro |
1.46 |
1.81 |
-13.2 |

Draw |
4.21 |
3.98 |
1.4 |

Northampton |
6.94 |
5.08 |
5.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.99 |
2.13 |
-3.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.82 |
1.89 |
-2.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Northampton (1.4 %, 5.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Peterboro** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Peterboro** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Peterboro** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Peterboro** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Peterboro’s performance** at home**.

Peterboro,** at home**, had 14 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 45 points, 78.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Peterboro scored in 18 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 13 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Peterboro was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Apr |
Swindon |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

05 Apr |
Sunderland |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Apr |
Fleetwood Town |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Accrington |
H |
7 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

23 Mar |
Blackpool |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Rochdale |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

16 Mar |
Portsmouth |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Hull |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Northampton** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Northampton scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Northampton** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Northampton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Northampton’s performance** as a guest**.

Northampton,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 12 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 23.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Northampton scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Northampton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Apr |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

05 Apr |
Hull |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

02 Apr |
Shrewsbury |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
AFC Wimbledon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Mar |
Oxford |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Crewe |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Doncaster |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Charlton |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Peterboro** is **0.385** and for the **Northampton** is **-0.246.**

The home dynamic for the **Peterboro** is **0.598** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Northampton** is **-0.299.**

The offensive ability for the **Peterboro** is **1** and for the **Northampton** is **-0.166.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Peterboro** is **0.059** and for the **Northampton** is **-0.243.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Peterboro** and the red line for guest team, **Northampton. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Peterboro |
14% |
37% |
29% |
20% |

Northampton |
40% |
36% |
14% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Peterboro** to score **1.85 ** goals and **Northampton** to score **0.6 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.45** goals in the game and the home team **Peterboro ** to win by **1.25** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Peterboro** to score **1.55 ** goals and **Northampton** to score **0.92 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.47** goals in the game and the home team **Peterboro ** to win by **0.63** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
17.24 |
0-1 |
3.86 |

1 |
4.98 |
2-3 |
1.92 |

2 |
3.70 |
4+ |
4.55 |

3 |
4.00 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.80 |
Un 1.5 |
3.86 |

5 |
18.18 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.13 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.89 |

Gg |
1.96 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.55 |

NoG |
2.04 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.73 |
4.47 |
5.08 |

2-3 goals |
1.73 |
3.88 |
6.05 |

4+ goals |
2.18 |
3.73 |
3.67 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.85 |
3.83 |
5.07 |

Un 1.5 |
1.73 |
4.47 |
5.08 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.65 |
7.97 |
3.73 |

Un 2.5 |
1.99 |
2.76 |
7.45 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.18 |
3.73 |
3.67 |

Un 3.5 |
1.73 |
4.06 |
5.69 |

Goal-Goal |
2.50 |
2.64 |
4.51 |

No Goal |
1.41 |
8.43 |
5.82 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.84 |
6.37 |
3.33 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.48 |
8.43 |
5.56 |

####
Go to Top

###
Oxford vs Gillingham at 17 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Oxford** and **Gillingham** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **17 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Oxford |
2.05 |
2.27 |
-4.7 |

Draw |
3.39 |
3.76 |
-2.9 |

Gillingham |
3.60 |
3.40 |
1.6 |

Over 2.5 |
1.96 |
2.04 |
-2.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.85 |
1.96 |
-3.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Gillingham (1.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Oxford** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Oxford scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Oxford** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Oxford** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Oxford’s performance** at home**.

Oxford,** at home**, had 10 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 34 points, 56.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Oxford scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Oxford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Apr |
Shrewsbury |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Crewe |
A |
6 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

05 Apr |
Accrington |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
Sunderland |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Mar |
Lincoln |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Mar |
Northampton |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Blackpool |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Mar |
Doncaster |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

**Gillingham** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Gillingham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Gillingham** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Gillingham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Gillingham’s performance** as a guest**.

Gillingham,** as a guest**, had 8 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 46.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Gillingham scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Gillingham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Apr |
Shrewsbury |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
Blackpool |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Mar |
Wigan |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Hull |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Mar |
Doncaster |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

16 Mar |
Lincoln |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

13 Mar |
Swindon |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Mar |
Fleetwood Town |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Oxford** is **0.059** and for the **Gillingham** is **0.063.**

The home dynamic for the **Oxford** is **0.296** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Gillingham** is **-0.004.**

The offensive ability for the **Oxford** is **0.604** and for the **Gillingham** is **0.525.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Oxford** is **-0.63** and for the **Gillingham** is **0.191.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Oxford** and the red line for guest team, **Gillingham. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Oxford |
23% |
32% |
26% |
18% |

Gillingham |
32% |
36% |
21% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Oxford** to score **1.49 ** goals and **Gillingham** to score **1 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.48** goals in the game and the home team **Oxford ** to win by **0.49** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Oxford** to score **1.39 ** goals and **Gillingham** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.5** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.28** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.80 |

1 |
5.32 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
4.02 |
4+ |
4.12 |

3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.41 |
Un 1.5 |
3.80 |

5 |
14.93 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.05 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.95 |

Gg |
1.92 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.12 |

NoG |
2.09 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.55 |
3.51 |
3.09 |

2-3 goals |
2.11 |
4.26 |
3.43 |

4+ goals |
2.36 |
3.24 |
3.74 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.19 |
3.86 |
3.53 |

Un 1.5 |
2.55 |
3.51 |
3.09 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.92 |
6.51 |
3.07 |

Un 2.5 |
2.75 |
2.68 |
3.79 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.36 |
3.24 |
3.74 |

Un 3.5 |
2.25 |
3.96 |
3.31 |

Goal-Goal |
2.64 |
2.73 |
3.92 |

No Goal |
1.97 |
6.39 |
2.98 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.06 |
5.40 |
3.05 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.13 |
6.39 |
2.93 |

####
Go to Top

###
Wigan vs Crewe at 17 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Wigan** and **Crewe** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **17 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Wigan |
2.68 |
2.52 |
2.4 |

Draw |
3.27 |
3.75 |
-3.9 |

Crewe |
2.60 |
2.98 |
-4.9 |

Over 2.5 |
2.12 |
2.00 |
2.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.71 |
2.00 |
-8.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Wigan, Over 2.5 (2.4 %, 2.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Wigan** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Wigan scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Wigan** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Wigan scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wigan’s performance** at home**.

Wigan,** at home**, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 28.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Wigan scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Wigan was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Apr |
Sunderland |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Doncaster |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Portsmouth |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

31 Mar |
Gillingham |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Ipswich |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Accrington |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Mar |
AFC Wimbledon |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

09 Mar |
Plymouth |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Crewe** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Crewe scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Crewe** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Crewe scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Crewe’s performance** as a guest**.

Crewe,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 38.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Crewe scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Crewe was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Apr |
Portsmouth |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Oxford |
H |
0 |
6 |
L |
O |
N |

05 Apr |
Milton Keynes Dons |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Hull |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Northampton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Burton |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

09 Mar |
Doncaster |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Lincoln |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

The form score for the **Wigan** is **-0.089** and for the **Crewe** is **-0.246.**

The home dynamic for the **Wigan** is **-0.542** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Crewe** is **-0.187.**

The offensive ability for the **Wigan** is **-0.39** and for the **Crewe** is **-0.256.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Wigan** is **-0.704** and for the **Crewe** is **0.217.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Wigan** and the red line for guest team, **Crewe. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Wigan |
27% |
31% |
25% |
17% |

Crewe |
27% |
37% |
24% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Wigan** to score **1.15 ** goals and **Crewe** to score **1.18 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.33** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.03** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Wigan** to score **1.33 ** goals and **Crewe** to score **1.21 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.54** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.12** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.70 |
0-1 |
3.91 |

1 |
5.46 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.07 |
4+ |
3.94 |

3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.21 |
Un 1.5 |
3.91 |

5 |
13.89 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |

6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
1.99 |

Gg |
1.87 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.94 |

NoG |
2.14 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.01 |
3.51 |
2.61 |

2-3 goals |
2.37 |
4.27 |
2.91 |

4+ goals |
2.42 |
3.17 |
3.68 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.39 |
3.82 |
3.13 |

Un 1.5 |
3.01 |
3.51 |
2.61 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.05 |
6.24 |
2.85 |

Un 2.5 |
3.28 |
2.67 |
3.12 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.42 |
3.17 |
3.68 |

Un 3.5 |
2.56 |
3.97 |
2.80 |

Goal-Goal |
2.71 |
2.74 |
3.76 |

No Goal |
2.34 |
6.40 |
2.41 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.13 |
5.24 |
2.95 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.53 |
6.40 |
2.40 |

####
Go to Top

###
Shrewsbury vs Doncaster at 17 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Shrewsbury** and **Doncaster** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **17 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Shrewsbury |
2.28 |
2.42 |
-2.5 |

Draw |
3.20 |
3.62 |
-3.6 |

Doncaster |
3.22 |
3.23 |
-0.1 |

Over 2.5 |
2.28 |
2.15 |
2.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.62 |
1.87 |
-8.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Over 2.5 (2.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Shrewsbury** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Shrewsbury** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Shrewsbury’s performance** at home**.

Shrewsbury,** at home**, had 5 wins, 7 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 40.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Shrewsbury was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Apr |
Oxford |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Gillingham |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
Plymouth |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

02 Apr |
Northampton |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Portsmouth |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Mar |
Burton |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Hull |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Mar |
Charlton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Doncaster** in the **last six** matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Doncaster scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Doncaster** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Doncaster scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Doncaster’s performance** as a guest**.

Doncaster,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 37.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Doncaster scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Doncaster was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Apr |
Burton |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

10 Apr |
Wigan |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Bristol Rvs |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
Charlton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Milton Keynes Dons |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Gillingham |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

16 Mar |
Oxford |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

13 Mar |
Northampton |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Shrewsbury** is **-0.2** and for the **Doncaster** is **-1.**

The home dynamic for the **Shrewsbury** is **-0.162** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Doncaster** is **0.06.**

The offensive ability for the **Shrewsbury** is **0.005** and for the **Doncaster** is **-0.229.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Shrewsbury** is **-0.281** and for the **Doncaster** is **-1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Shrewsbury** and the red line for guest team, **Doncaster. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Shrewsbury |
24% |
37% |
23% |
16% |

Doncaster |
31% |
36% |
23% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Shrewsbury** to score **1.24 ** goals and **Doncaster** to score **0.97 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.21** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.27** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Shrewsbury** to score **1.31 ** goals and **Doncaster** to score **1.12 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.43** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.19** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.64 |

1 |
5.00 |
2-3 |
1.99 |

2 |
3.85 |
4+ |
4.46 |

3 |
4.13 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |

4 |
6.71 |
Un 1.5 |
3.64 |

5 |
16.95 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.15 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.87 |

Gg |
1.90 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.46 |

NoG |
2.10 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |