2021 04 16 League Two (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Crawley Town vs Cheltenham at 16 April 2021
Leyton Orient vs Barrow at 17 April 2021
Tranmere vs Salford at 17 April 2021
Stevenage vs Mansfield at 17 April 2021
Morecambe vs Oldham at 17 April 2021
Harrogate vs Bradford at 17 April 2021
Forest Green vs Scunthorpe at 17 April 2021
Exeter vs Southend at 17 April 2021
Colchester vs Walsall at 17 April 2021
Carlisle vs Port Vale at 17 April 2021
Grimsby vs Bolton at 17 April 2021
Newport County vs Cambridge at 17 April 2021


Crawley Town vs Cheltenham at 16 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Crawley Town and Cheltenham for League Two (England), which will take place on 16 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Crawley Town

3.92

2.79

10.3

Draw

3.42

3.64

-1.8

Cheltenham

1.93

2.73

-15.2

Over 2.5

2.03

2.22

-4.2

Under 2.5

1.77

1.82

-1.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Crawley Town (10.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Crawley Town in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Crawley Town in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crawley Town’s performance at home.
Crawley Town, at home, had 9 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 32 points, 53.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 17 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crawley Town was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Apr

Bradford

A

2

0

W

U

N

10 Apr

Southend

A

0

0

D

U

N

05 Apr

Oldham

H

1

4

L

O

G

02 Apr

Scunthorpe

A

0

0

D

U

N

30 Mar

Carlisle

A

0

2

L

U

N

27 Mar

Port Vale

H

1

3

L

O

G

20 Mar

Barrow

A

2

3

L

O

G

16 Mar

Walsall

H

1

1

D

U

G


Cheltenham in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cheltenham in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cheltenham’s performance as a guest.
Cheltenham, as a guest, had 10 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 35 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cheltenham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Leyton Orient

H

1

0

W

U

N

05 Apr

Grimsby

A

1

1

D

U

G

02 Apr

Tranmere

H

4

0

W

O

N

27 Mar

Morecambe

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Salford

H

2

0

W

U

N

16 Mar

Barrow

H

0

2

L

U

N

13 Mar

Exeter

A

1

0

W

U

N

09 Mar

Mansfield

A

1

3

L

O

G


The form score for the Crawley Town is -0.259 and for the Cheltenham is 0.167.
The home dynamic for the Crawley Town is -0.084 and the dynamic as a guest for the Cheltenham is 0.092.
The offensive ability for the Crawley Town is -0.422 and for the Cheltenham is 0.283.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Crawley Town is 0.089 and for the Cheltenham is 0.217.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Crawley Town and the red line for guest team, Cheltenham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Crawley Town

32%

31%

25%

12%

Cheltenham

29%

35%

22%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Crawley Town to score 0.91 goals and Cheltenham to score 1.5 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and the guest team Cheltenham to win by 0.59 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Crawley Town to score 1.18 goals and Cheltenham to score 1.19 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.01 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.87

0-1

3.39

1

4.93

2-3

2.04

2

3.92

4+

4.65

3

4.27

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

7.19

Un 1.5

3.39

5

16.67

Ov 2.5

2.23

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.82

Gg

2.07

Ov 3.5

4.65

NoG

1.94

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.24

3.21

2.63

2-3 goals

2.47

4.45

2.70

4+ goals

3.07

2.99

2.95

Ov 1.5

2.63

3.87

2.77

Un 1.5

3.24

3.21

2.63

Ov 2.5

2.31

6.24

2.45

Un 2.5

3.33

2.72

3.01

Ov 3.5

3.07

2.99

2.95

Un 3.5

2.71

3.88

2.68

Goal-Goal

3.04

2.65

3.40

No Goal

2.58

5.61

2.30

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.35

5.18

2.63

NG+Un 2.5

2.67

5.61

2.40


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Leyton Orient vs Barrow at 17 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Leyton Orient and Barrow for League Two (England), which will take place on 17 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Leyton Orient

2.51

2.43

1.3

Draw

3.11

3.66

-4.8

Barrow

2.90

3.18

-3.0

Over 2.5

2.36

2.21

2.9

Under 2.5

1.58

1.83

-8.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Leyton Orient, Over 2.5 (1.3 %, 2.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Leyton Orient in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leyton Orient in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leyton Orient’s performance at home.
Leyton Orient, at home, had 8 wins, 7 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 51.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leyton Orient was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Apr

Harrogate

A

2

2

D

O

G

10 Apr

Cheltenham

A

0

1

L

U

N

05 Apr

Walsall

H

0

0

D

U

N

02 Apr

Mansfield

A

2

0

W

U

N

27 Mar

Oldham

H

2

1

W

O

G

23 Mar

Carlisle

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Newport County

A

1

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Scunthorpe

H

1

1

D

U

G


Barrow in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Barrow scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Barrow in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Barrow scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Barrow’s performance as a guest.
Barrow, as a guest, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 12 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 29.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Barrow scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Barrow was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Apr

Exeter

H

2

1

W

O

G

10 Apr

Carlisle

H

2

2

D

O

G

05 Apr

Colchester

A

1

1

D

U

G

02 Apr

Newport County

H

2

1

W

O

G

27 Mar

Stevenage

A

1

2

L

O

G

23 Mar

Grimsby

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Crawley Town

H

3

2

W

O

G

16 Mar

Cheltenham

A

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Leyton Orient is 0.259 and for the Barrow is 0.008.
The home dynamic for the Leyton Orient is 0.296 and the dynamic as a guest for the Barrow is -0.474.
The offensive ability for the Leyton Orient is -0.037 and for the Barrow is 0.668.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Leyton Orient is -0.059 and for the Barrow is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Leyton Orient and the red line for guest team, Barrow.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Leyton Orient

28%

31%

27%

14%

Barrow

32%

37%

21%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Leyton Orient to score 1.13 goals and Barrow to score 1.03 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.16 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.1 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Leyton Orient to score 1.28 goals and Barrow to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.36

0-1

3.47

1

5.00

2-3

2.01

2

3.88

4+

4.67

3

4.18

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

7.09

Un 1.5

3.47

5

17.24

Ov 2.5

2.21

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.83

Gg

2.03

Ov 3.5

4.67

NoG

1.97

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.91

3.27

2.85

2-3 goals

2.14

4.36

3.29

4+ goals

2.64

3.01

3.45

Ov 1.5

2.27

3.84

3.34

Un 1.5

2.91

3.27

2.85

Ov 2.5

2.00

6.38

2.90

Un 2.5

2.94

2.70

3.46

Ov 3.5

2.64

3.01

3.45

Un 3.5

2.37

3.89

3.12

Goal-Goal

2.72

2.66

3.90

No Goal

2.19

5.76

2.70

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.09

5.32

3.00

NG+Un 2.5

2.32

5.76

2.73


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Tranmere vs Salford at 17 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Tranmere and Salford for League Two (England), which will take place on 17 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Tranmere

2.52

2.79

-3.8

Draw

3.05

3.66

-5.5

Salford

2.91

2.72

2.4

Over 2.5

2.46

2.17

5.4

Under 2.5

1.54

1.86

-11.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Salford, Over 2.5 (2.4 %, 5.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Tranmere in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Tranmere scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Tranmere in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Tranmere scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Tranmere’s performance at home.
Tranmere, at home, had 10 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 33 points, 55.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Tranmere scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Tranmere was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Apr

Walsall

A

0

1

L

U

N

10 Apr

Scunthorpe

A

0

0

D

U

N

05 Apr

Cambridge

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Apr

Cheltenham

A

0

4

L

O

N

27 Mar

Mansfield

H

1

1

D

U

G

23 Mar

Colchester

A

2

2

D

O

G

20 Mar

Exeter

H

2

1

W

O

G

17 Mar

Grimsby

A

0

0

D

U

N


Salford in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Salford in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Salford’s performance as a guest.
Salford, as a guest, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 35.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 14 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Salford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Apr

Bolton

H

0

1

L

U

N

10 Apr

Stevenage

H

2

1

W

O

G

05 Apr

Forest Green

A

2

0

W

U

N

02 Apr

Grimsby

H

1

1

D

U

G

27 Mar

Exeter

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Cheltenham

A

0

2

L

U

N

16 Mar

Colchester

H

0

0

D

U

N

09 Mar

Crawley Town

A

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Tranmere is -0.356 and for the Salford is -0.206.
The home dynamic for the Tranmere is 0.084 and the dynamic as a guest for the Salford is -0.068.
The offensive ability for the Tranmere is -0.572 and for the Salford is -0.166.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Tranmere is -0.63 and for the Salford is -0.591.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Tranmere and the red line for guest team, Salford.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Tranmere

31%

31%

26%

12%

Salford

28%

35%

23%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Tranmere to score 1.1 goals and Salford to score 1 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.1 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.1 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Tranmere to score 1.2 goals and Salford to score 1.21 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.01 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.36

0-1

3.51

1

5.08

2-3

2.04

2

3.95

4+

4.46

3

4.20

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

6.90

Un 1.5

3.51

5

16.13

Ov 2.5

2.16

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.86

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

4.46

NoG

1.98

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.24

3.24

2.61

2-3 goals

2.47

4.46

2.70

4+ goals

3.11

2.95

2.95

Ov 1.5

2.64

3.84

2.77

Un 1.5

3.24

3.24

2.61

Ov 2.5

2.33

6.08

2.46

Un 2.5

3.34

2.72

3.01

Ov 3.5

3.11

2.95

2.95

Un 3.5

2.70

3.92

2.67

Goal-Goal

3.04

2.67

3.37

No Goal

2.57

5.73

2.29

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.37

5.08

2.63

NG+Un 2.5

2.66

5.73

2.39


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Stevenage vs Mansfield at 17 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Stevenage and Mansfield for League Two (England), which will take place on 17 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Stevenage

2.78

2.60

2.5

Draw

3.02

3.68

-5.9

Mansfield

2.67

2.92

-3.2

Over 2.5

2.53

2.18

6.3

Under 2.5

1.52

1.85

-11.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Stevenage, Over 2.5 (2.5 %, 6.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Stevenage in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Stevenage scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Stevenage in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Stevenage scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Stevenage’s performance at home.
Stevenage, at home, had 8 wins, 7 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 51.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Stevenage scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Stevenage was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Salford

A

1

2

L

O

G

05 Apr

Bradford

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Apr

Oldham

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Mar

Barrow

H

2

1

W

O

G

20 Mar

Carlisle

H

3

1

W

O

G

13 Mar

Southend

A

0

0

D

U

N

09 Mar

Leyton Orient

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Harrogate

H

1

0

W

U

N


Mansfield in the last six matches had no wins, 5 draws,one defeat and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Mansfield scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Mansfield in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Mansfield scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Mansfield’s performance as a guest.
Mansfield, as a guest, had 5 wins, 9 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 40.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Mansfield scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Mansfield was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Apr

Newport County

H

1

1

D

U

G

05 Apr

Exeter

A

0

0

D

U

N

02 Apr

Leyton Orient

H

0

2

L

U

N

27 Mar

Tranmere

A

1

1

D

U

G

23 Mar

Forest Green

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Mar

Grimsby

H

2

2

D

O

G

16 Mar

Carlisle

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Crawley Town

A

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Stevenage is 0.281 and for the Mansfield is -0.254.
The home dynamic for the Stevenage is -0.106 and the dynamic as a guest for the Mansfield is 0.267.
The offensive ability for the Stevenage is 0.604 and for the Mansfield is -0.229.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Stevenage is -0.385 and for the Mansfield is -0.217.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Stevenage and the red line for guest team, Mansfield.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Stevenage

30%

30%

28%

13%

Mansfield

30%

36%

22%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Stevenage to score 1.02 goals and Mansfield to score 1.05 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.07 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.03 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Stevenage to score 1.24 goals and Mansfield to score 1.16 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.11

0-1

3.48

1

5.08

2-3

2.02

2

3.92

4+

4.55

3

4.18

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

7.04

Un 1.5

3.48

5

16.13

Ov 2.5

2.18

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.85

Gg

2.04

Ov 3.5

4.55

NoG

1.96

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at