# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Lille vs Montpellier at 16 April 2021**** Angers vs Rennes at 17 April 2021**** Marseille vs Lorient at 17 April 2021**** Brest vs Lens at 18 April 2021**** Dijon vs Nice at 18 April 2021**** Nantes vs Lyon at 18 April 2021**** Nimes vs Strasbourg at 18 April 2021**** Paris SG vs St Etienne at 18 April 2021**** Reims vs Metz at 18 April 2021**** Bordeaux vs Monaco at 18 April 2021**

###
Lille vs Montpellier at 16 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Lille** and **Montpellier** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **16 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Lille |
1.65 |
1.87 |
-7.1 |

Draw |
3.89 |
4.05 |
-1.0 |

Montpellier |
5.52 |
4.59 |
3.7 |

Over 2.5 |
1.96 |
1.98 |
-0.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.88 |
2.02 |
-3.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Montpellier (3.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Lille** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Lille scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Lille** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Lille** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lille’s performance** at home**.

Lille,** at home**, had 9 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 32 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Lille scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Lille was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Apr |
Metz |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Apr |
Paris SG |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Mar |
Nimes |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Mar |
Monaco |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

03 Mar |
Marseille |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Feb |
Strasbourg |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Feb |
Lorient |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

14 Feb |
Brest |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Montpellier** in the **last six** matches had one win, 5 draws, no defeats.and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Montpellier scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Montpellier** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Montpellier** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Montpellier’s performance** as a guest**.

Montpellier,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 7 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 48.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Montpellier scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Montpellier was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Apr |
Marseille |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

04 Apr |
Angers |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Mar |
Bordeaux |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

14 Mar |
Nimes |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Mar |
Lorient |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Feb |
Reims |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Feb |
Rennes |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Lyon |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Lille** is **0.356** and for the **Montpellier** is **0.111.**

The home dynamic for the **Lille** is **0.62** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Montpellier** is **0.187.**

The offensive ability for the **Lille** is **0.54** and for the **Montpellier** is **0.668.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Lille** is **0.385** and for the **Montpellier** is **-0.678.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Lille** and the red line for guest team, **Montpellier. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Lille |
21% |
24% |
35% |
20% |

Montpellier |
37% |
36% |
20% |
7% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Lille** to score **1.76 ** goals and **Montpellier** to score **0.74 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.5** goals in the game and the home team **Lille ** to win by **1.02** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Lille** to score **1.55 ** goals and **Montpellier** to score **0.97 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.52** goals in the game and the home team **Lille ** to win by **0.58** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.16 |
0-1 |
4.18 |

1 |
6.13 |
2-3 |
1.92 |

2 |
3.89 |
4+ |
4.17 |

3 |
3.77 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.31 |

4 |
6.17 |
Un 1.5 |
4.18 |

5 |
15.38 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
2.02 |

Gg |
1.99 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.17 |

NoG |
2.00 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.72 |
3.14 |
3.19 |

2-3 goals |
1.58 |
6.00 |
5.02 |

4+ goals |
2.05 |
2.86 |
6.15 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.70 |
4.46 |
5.33 |

Un 1.5 |
2.72 |
3.14 |
3.19 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.58 |
6.01 |
5.00 |

Un 2.5 |
2.30 |
3.04 |
4.24 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.05 |
2.86 |
6.15 |

Un 3.5 |
1.82 |
4.67 |
4.25 |

Goal-Goal |
2.06 |
2.94 |
5.77 |

No Goal |
1.71 |
6.57 |
3.81 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.70 |
4.94 |
4.77 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.89 |
6.57 |
3.50 |

####
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###
Angers vs Rennes at 17 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Angers** and **Rennes** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **17 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Angers |
3.55 |
2.54 |
11.2 |

Draw |
3.24 |
3.52 |
-2.5 |

Rennes |
2.17 |
3.10 |
-13.8 |

Over 2.5 |
2.38 |
2.55 |
-2.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.59 |
1.64 |
-1.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Angers (11.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Angers** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Angers scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Angers** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Angers scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Angers’s performance** at home**.

Angers,** at home**, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 40.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Angers scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Angers was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

11 Apr |
Lyon |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

04 Apr |
Montpellier |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Mar |
Brest |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
St Etienne |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Mar |
Metz |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Feb |
Lens |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

21 Feb |
Strasbourg |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Nantes |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Rennes** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Rennes scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Rennes** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Rennes** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rennes’s performance** as a guest**.

Rennes,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 6 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Rennes scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Rennes was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

11 Apr |
Nantes |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

04 Apr |
Reims |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Metz |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

14 Mar |
Strasbourg |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

10 Mar |
Marseille |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Mar |
Lyon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Feb |
Nice |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Feb |
Montpellier |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Angers** is **-0.207** and for the **Rennes** is **0.19.**

The home dynamic for the **Angers** is **-0.318** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Rennes** is **0.219.**

The offensive ability for the **Angers** is **-0.529** and for the **Rennes** is **0.309.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Angers** is **-0.356** and for the **Rennes** is **-0.157.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Angers** and the red line for guest team, **Rennes. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Angers |
30% |
36% |
25% |
9% |

Rennes |
37% |
36% |
12% |
15% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Angers** to score **0.9 ** goals and **Rennes** to score **1.26 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.16** goals in the game and the guest team **Rennes ** to win by **0.36** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Angers** to score **1.14 ** goals and **Rennes** to score **1.05 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.19** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.09** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.17 |
0-1 |
2.87 |

1 |
4.17 |
2-3 |
2.13 |

2 |
3.88 |
4+ |
5.56 |

3 |
4.72 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.54 |

4 |
8.47 |
Un 1.5 |
2.87 |

5 |
20.83 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.55 |

6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.65 |

Gg |
2.25 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.56 |

NoG |
1.81 |
Un 3.5 |
1.22 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.64 |
3.20 |
3.23 |

2-3 goals |
2.19 |
3.59 |
3.79 |

4+ goals |
4.00 |
4.09 |
1.98 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.50 |
3.71 |
3.02 |

Un 1.5 |
2.64 |
3.20 |
3.23 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.32 |
8.91 |
2.19 |

Un 2.5 |
2.72 |
2.53 |
4.22 |

Ov 3.5 |
4.00 |
4.09 |
1.98 |

Un 3.5 |
2.36 |
3.41 |
3.53 |

Goal-Goal |
3.30 |
2.54 |
3.30 |

No Goal |
2.16 |
5.08 |
2.95 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.33 |
7.14 |
2.33 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.13 |
5.08 |
3.31 |

####
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###
Marseille vs Lorient at 17 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Marseille** and **Lorient** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **17 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Marseille |
2.11 |
1.81 |
7.9 |

Draw |
3.43 |
4.13 |
-4.9 |

Lorient |
3.52 |
4.85 |
-7.8 |

Over 2.5 |
2.05 |
2.11 |
-1.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.80 |
1.90 |
-2.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Marseille (7.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Marseille** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Marseille scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Marseille** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Marseille scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Marseille’s performance** at home**.

Marseille,** at home**, had 8 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 58.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Marseille scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Marseille was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Apr |
Montpellier |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

04 Apr |
Dijon |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Nice |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

13 Mar |
Brest |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

10 Mar |
Rennes |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Mar |
Lille |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

28 Feb |
Lyon |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Feb |
Nantes |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Lorient** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Lorient** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Lorient** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Lorient** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lorient’s performance** as a guest**.

Lorient,** as a guest**, had one win, 6 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 18.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Lorient scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Lorient was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

11 Apr |
Lens |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

04 Apr |
Brest |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Mar |
Nantes |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Mar |
Nice |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Mar |
Montpellier |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Feb |
St Etienne |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Feb |
Nimes |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Feb |
Lille |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Marseille** is **0.185** and for the **Lorient** is **0.063.**

The home dynamic for the **Marseille** is **-0.073** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Lorient** is **-0.458.**

The offensive ability for the **Marseille** is **0.112** and for the **Lorient** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Marseille** is **-0.333** and for the **Lorient** is **-0.565.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Marseille** and the red line for guest team, **Lorient. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Marseille |
22% |
22% |
38% |
19% |

Lorient |
42% |
34% |
17% |
7% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Marseille** to score **1.42 ** goals and **Lorient** to score **0.99 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.41** goals in the game and the home team **Marseille ** to win by **0.43** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Marseille** to score **1.53 ** goals and **Lorient** to score **0.89 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.42** goals in the game and the home team **Marseille ** to win by **0.64** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.87 |
0-1 |
3.88 |

1 |
6.02 |
2-3 |
1.89 |

2 |
3.72 |
4+ |
4.67 |

3 |
3.86 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.99 |
Un 1.5 |
3.88 |

5 |
17.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.11 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.90 |

Gg |
2.20 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.67 |

NoG |
1.83 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.84 |
2.80 |
3.44 |

2-3 goals |
1.45 |
7.04 |
6.00 |

4+ goals |
2.25 |
2.82 |
4.98 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.61 |
4.91 |
5.66 |

Un 1.5 |
2.84 |
2.80 |
3.44 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.57 |
6.22 |
4.98 |

Un 2.5 |
2.12 |
3.16 |
4.75 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.25 |
2.82 |
4.98 |

Un 3.5 |
1.72 |
4.71 |
4.82 |

Goal-Goal |
2.03 |
3.01 |
5.75 |

No Goal |
1.67 |
5.93 |
4.30 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.69 |
4.99 |
4.80 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.82 |
5.93 |
4.07 |

####
Go to Top

###
Brest vs Lens at 18 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Brest** and **Lens** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **18 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Brest |
2.85 |
2.07 |
13.2 |

Draw |
3.29 |
3.88 |
-4.6 |

Lens |
2.55 |
3.85 |
-13.2 |

Over 2.5 |
1.88 |
2.43 |
-12.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.95 |
1.70 |
7.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Brest, Under 2.5 (13.2 %, 7.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Brest** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Brest scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Brest** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Brest scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brest’s performance** at home**.

Brest,** at home**, had 8 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 56.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Brest scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Brest was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

11 Apr |
Nimes |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

04 Apr |
Lorient |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Mar |
Angers |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Marseille |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Mar |
Dijon |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Feb |
Monaco |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Feb |
Lyon |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Feb |
Lille |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Lens** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Lens** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

More recently, **Lens** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Lens** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Lens’s performance** as a guest**.

Lens,** as a guest**, had 8 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 58.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Lens scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Lens was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

11 Apr |
Lorient |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Apr |
Lyon |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Mar |
Strasbourg |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

14 Mar |
Metz |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

03 Mar |
St Etienne |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Feb |
Angers |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

21 Feb |
Dijon |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Reims |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **Brest** is **-0.333** and for the **Lens** is **0.484.**

The home dynamic for the **Brest** is **0.162** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Lens** is **0.211.**

The offensive ability for the **Brest** is **-0.422** and for the **Lens** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Brest** is **-0.652** and for the **Lens** is **-1.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Brest** and the red line for guest team, **Lens. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Brest |
27% |
25% |
36% |
11% |

Lens |
42% |
34% |
12% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Brest** to score **1.24 ** goals and **Lens** to score **1.34 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.58** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.1** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Brest** to score **1.31 ** goals and **Lens** to score **0.93 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.24** goals in the game and the home team **Brest ** to win by **0.38** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
8.62 |
0-1 |
3.16 |

1 |
5.00 |
2-3 |
1.98 |

2 |
3.68 |
4+ |
5.59 |

3 |
4.29 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.46 |

4 |
9.01 |
Un 1.5 |
3.16 |

5 |
18.18 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.43 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.70 |

Gg |
2.39 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.59 |

NoG |
1.72 |
Un 3.5 |
1.22 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |