2021 04 16 Ligue One (France)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Lille vs Montpellier at 16 April 2021
Angers vs Rennes at 17 April 2021
Marseille vs Lorient at 17 April 2021
Brest vs Lens at 18 April 2021
Dijon vs Nice at 18 April 2021
Nantes vs Lyon at 18 April 2021
Nimes vs Strasbourg at 18 April 2021
Paris SG vs St Etienne at 18 April 2021
Reims vs Metz at 18 April 2021
Bordeaux vs Monaco at 18 April 2021


Lille vs Montpellier at 16 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Lille and Montpellier for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 16 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Lille

1.65

1.87

-7.1

Draw

3.89

4.05

-1.0

Montpellier

5.52

4.59

3.7

Over 2.5

1.96

1.98

-0.5

Under 2.5

1.88

2.02

-3.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Montpellier (3.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Lille in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Lille scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lille in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Lille scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lille’s performance at home.
Lille, at home, had 9 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 32 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Lille scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lille was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Apr

Metz

A

2

0

W

U

N

03 Apr

Paris SG

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Mar

Nimes

H

1

2

L

O

G

14 Mar

Monaco

A

0

0

D

U

N

03 Mar

Marseille

H

2

0

W

U

N

28 Feb

Strasbourg

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Feb

Lorient

A

4

1

W

O

G

14 Feb

Brest

H

0

0

D

U

N


Montpellier in the last six matches had one win, 5 draws, no defeats.and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Montpellier scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Montpellier in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Montpellier scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Montpellier’s performance as a guest.
Montpellier, as a guest, had 5 wins, 7 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 48.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Montpellier scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Montpellier was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Marseille

H

3

3

D

O

G

04 Apr

Angers

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Mar

Bordeaux

H

3

1

W

O

G

14 Mar

Nimes

A

1

1

D

U

G

03 Mar

Lorient

H

1

1

D

U

G

28 Feb

Reims

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Feb

Rennes

H

2

1

W

O

G

13 Feb

Lyon

A

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Lille is 0.356 and for the Montpellier is 0.111.
The home dynamic for the Lille is 0.62 and the dynamic as a guest for the Montpellier is 0.187.
The offensive ability for the Lille is 0.54 and for the Montpellier is 0.668.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Lille is 0.385 and for the Montpellier is -0.678.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Lille and the red line for guest team, Montpellier.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Lille

21%

24%

35%

20%

Montpellier

37%

36%

20%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lille to score 1.76 goals and Montpellier to score 0.74 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Lille to win by 1.02 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lille to score 1.55 goals and Montpellier to score 0.97 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and the home team Lille to win by 0.58 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.16

0-1

4.18

1

6.13

2-3

1.92

2

3.89

4+

4.17

3

3.77

Ov 1.5

1.31

4

6.17

Un 1.5

4.18

5

15.38

Ov 2.5

1.98

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

2.02

Gg

1.99

Ov 3.5

4.17

NoG

2.00

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.72

3.14

3.19

2-3 goals

1.58

6.00

5.02

4+ goals

2.05

2.86

6.15

Ov 1.5

1.70

4.46

5.33

Un 1.5

2.72

3.14

3.19

Ov 2.5

1.58

6.01

5.00

Un 2.5

2.30

3.04

4.24

Ov 3.5

2.05

2.86

6.15

Un 3.5

1.82

4.67

4.25

Goal-Goal

2.06

2.94

5.77

No Goal

1.71

6.57

3.81

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.70

4.94

4.77

NG+Un 2.5

1.89

6.57

3.50


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Angers vs Rennes at 17 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Angers and Rennes for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 17 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Angers

3.55

2.54

11.2

Draw

3.24

3.52

-2.5

Rennes

2.17

3.10

-13.8

Over 2.5

2.38

2.55

-2.8

Under 2.5

1.59

1.64

-1.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Angers (11.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Angers in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Angers scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Angers in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Angers scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Angers’s performance at home.
Angers, at home, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 40.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Angers scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Angers was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Apr

Lyon

A

0

3

L

O

N

04 Apr

Montpellier

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Mar

Brest

A

0

0

D

U

N

13 Mar

St Etienne

H

0

1

L

U

N

03 Mar

Metz

A

1

0

W

U

N

28 Feb

Lens

H

2

2

D

O

G

21 Feb

Strasbourg

A

0

0

D

U

N

14 Feb

Nantes

H

1

3

L

O

G


Rennes in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Rennes scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rennes in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Rennes scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rennes’s performance as a guest.
Rennes, as a guest, had 6 wins, 6 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Rennes scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rennes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Apr

Nantes

H

1

0

W

U

N

04 Apr

Reims

A

2

2

D

O

G

20 Mar

Metz

A

3

1

W

O

G

14 Mar

Strasbourg

H

1

0

W

U

N

10 Mar

Marseille

A

0

1

L

U

N

03 Mar

Lyon

A

0

1

L

U

N

26 Feb

Nice

H

1

2

L

O

G

21 Feb

Montpellier

A

1

2

L

O

G


The form score for the Angers is -0.207 and for the Rennes is 0.19.
The home dynamic for the Angers is -0.318 and the dynamic as a guest for the Rennes is 0.219.
The offensive ability for the Angers is -0.529 and for the Rennes is 0.309.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Angers is -0.356 and for the Rennes is -0.157.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Angers and the red line for guest team, Rennes.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Angers

30%

36%

25%

9%

Rennes

37%

36%

12%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Angers to score 0.9 goals and Rennes to score 1.26 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.16 goals in the game and the guest team Rennes to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Angers to score 1.14 goals and Rennes to score 1.05 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.19 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.09 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.17

0-1

2.87

1

4.17

2-3

2.13

2

3.88

4+

5.56

3

4.72

Ov 1.5

1.54

4

8.47

Un 1.5

2.87

5

20.83

Ov 2.5

2.55

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.65

Gg

2.25

Ov 3.5

5.56

NoG

1.81

Un 3.5

1.22

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.64

3.20

3.23

2-3 goals

2.19

3.59

3.79

4+ goals

4.00

4.09

1.98

Ov 1.5

2.50

3.71

3.02

Un 1.5

2.64

3.20

3.23

Ov 2.5

2.32

8.91

2.19

Un 2.5

2.72

2.53

4.22

Ov 3.5

4.00

4.09

1.98

Un 3.5

2.36

3.41

3.53

Goal-Goal

3.30

2.54

3.30

No Goal

2.16

5.08

2.95

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.33

7.14

2.33

NG+Un 2.5

2.13

5.08

3.31


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Marseille vs Lorient at 17 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Marseille and Lorient for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 17 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Marseille

2.11

1.81

7.9

Draw

3.43

4.13

-4.9

Lorient

3.52

4.85

-7.8

Over 2.5

2.05

2.11

-1.4

Under 2.5

1.80

1.90

-2.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Marseille (7.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Marseille in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Marseille scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Marseille in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Marseille scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Marseille’s performance at home.
Marseille, at home, had 8 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Marseille scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Marseille was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Montpellier

A

3

3

D

O

G

04 Apr

Dijon

H

2

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Nice

A

0

3

L

O

N

13 Mar

Brest

H

3

1

W

O

G

10 Mar

Rennes

H

1

0

W

U

N

03 Mar

Lille

A

0

2

L

U

N

28 Feb

Lyon

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Nantes

A

1

1

D

U

G


Lorient in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Lorient scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lorient in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Lorient scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lorient’s performance as a guest.
Lorient, as a guest, had one win, 6 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 18.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Lorient scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lorient was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Apr

Lens

A

1

4

L

O

G

04 Apr

Brest

H

1

0

W

U

N

21 Mar

Nantes

A

1

1

D

U

G

14 Mar

Nice

H

1

1

D

U

G

03 Mar

Montpellier

A

1

1

D

U

G

28 Feb

St Etienne

H

2

1

W

O

G

24 Feb

Nimes

A

0

1

L

U

N

21 Feb

Lille

H

1

4

L

O

G


The form score for the Marseille is 0.185 and for the Lorient is 0.063.
The home dynamic for the Marseille is -0.073 and the dynamic as a guest for the Lorient is -0.458.
The offensive ability for the Marseille is 0.112 and for the Lorient is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Marseille is -0.333 and for the Lorient is -0.565.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Marseille and the red line for guest team, Lorient.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Marseille

22%

22%

38%

19%

Lorient

42%

34%

17%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Marseille to score 1.42 goals and Lorient to score 0.99 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and the home team Marseille to win by 0.43 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Marseille to score 1.53 goals and Lorient to score 0.89 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Marseille to win by 0.64 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.87

0-1

3.88

1

6.02

2-3

1.89

2

3.72

4+

4.67

3

3.86

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.99

Un 1.5

3.88

5

17.24

Ov 2.5

2.11

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.90

Gg

2.20

Ov 3.5

4.67

NoG

1.83

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.84

2.80

3.44

2-3 goals

1.45

7.04

6.00

4+ goals

2.25

2.82

4.98

Ov 1.5

1.61

4.91

5.66

Un 1.5

2.84

2.80

3.44

Ov 2.5

1.57

6.22

4.98

Un 2.5

2.12

3.16

4.75

Ov 3.5

2.25

2.82

4.98

Un 3.5

1.72

4.71

4.82

Goal-Goal

2.03

3.01

5.75

No Goal

1.67

5.93

4.30

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.69

4.99

4.80

NG+Un 2.5

1.82

5.93

4.07


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Brest vs Lens at 18 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Brest and Lens for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 18 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Brest

2.85

2.07

13.2

Draw

3.29

3.88

-4.6

Lens

2.55

3.85

-13.2

Over 2.5

1.88

2.43

-12.0

Under 2.5

1.95

1.70

7.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Brest, Under 2.5 (13.2 %, 7.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Brest in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Brest scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Brest in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Brest scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brest’s performance at home.
Brest, at home, had 8 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 56.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Brest scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Brest was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Apr

Nimes

H

1

1

D

U

G

04 Apr

Lorient

A

0

1

L

U

N

21 Mar

Angers

H

0

0

D

U

N

13 Mar

Marseille

A

1

3

L

O

G

03 Mar

Dijon

H

3

1

W

O

G

28 Feb

Monaco

A

0

2

L

U

N

19 Feb

Lyon

H

2

3

L

O

G

14 Feb

Lille

A

0

0

D

U

N


Lens in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Lens scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Lens in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Lens scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Lens’s performance as a guest.
Lens, as a guest, had 8 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Lens scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lens was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Apr

Lorient

H

4

1

W

O

G

03 Apr

Lyon

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Mar

Strasbourg

A

2

1

W

O

G

14 Mar

Metz

H

2

2

D

O

G

03 Mar

St Etienne

A

3

2

W

O

G

28 Feb

Angers

A

2

2

D

O

G

21 Feb

Dijon

H

2

1

W

O

G

13 Feb

Reims

A

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Brest is -0.333 and for the Lens is 0.484.
The home dynamic for the Brest is 0.162 and the dynamic as a guest for the Lens is 0.211.
The offensive ability for the Brest is -0.422 and for the Lens is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Brest is -0.652 and for the Lens is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Brest and the red line for guest team, Lens.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Brest

27%

25%

36%

11%

Lens

42%

34%

12%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Brest to score 1.24 goals and Lens to score 1.34 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.1 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Brest to score 1.31 goals and Lens to score 0.93 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and the home team Brest to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.62

0-1

3.16

1

5.00

2-3

1.98

2

3.68

4+

5.59

3

4.29

Ov 1.5

1.46

4

9.01

Un 1.5

3.16

5

18.18

Ov 2.5

2.43

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.70

Gg

2.39

Ov 3.5

5.59

NoG

1.72

Un 3.5

1.22

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-