2021 04 16 Premier League (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Everton vs Tottenham at 16 April 2021
Wolves vs Sheffield United at 17 April 2021
Newcastle vs West Ham at 17 April 2021
Arsenal vs Fulham at 18 April 2021
Man United vs Burnley at 18 April 2021
Leeds vs Liverpool at 19 April 2021


Everton vs Tottenham at 16 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Everton and Tottenham for Premier League (England), which will take place on 16 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Everton

3.39

3.04

3.4

Draw

3.41

3.80

-3.0

Tottenham

2.22

2.45

-4.2

Over 2.5

1.92

1.98

-1.6

Under 2.5

1.92

2.02

-2.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Everton (3.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Everton in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Everton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Everton in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Everton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Everton’s performance at home.
Everton, at home, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 40.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Everton scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Everton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Apr

Brighton

A

0

0

D

U

N

05 Apr

Crystal Palace

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Burnley

H

1

2

L

O

G

08 Mar

Chelsea

A

0

2

L

U

N

04 Mar

West Brom

A

1

0

W

U

N

01 Mar

Southampton

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Liverpool

A

2

0

W

U

N

17 Feb

Man City

H

1

3

L

O

G


Tottenham in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Tottenham scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Tottenham in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Tottenham scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Tottenham’s performance as a guest.
Tottenham, as a guest, had 7 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 52.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Tottenham scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Tottenham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Apr

Man United

H

1

3

L

O

G

04 Apr

Newcastle

A

2

2

D

O

G

21 Mar

Aston Villa

A

2

0

W

U

N

14 Mar

Arsenal

A

1

2

L

O

G

07 Mar

Crystal Palace

H

4

1

W

O

G

04 Mar

Fulham

A

1

0

W

U

N

28 Feb

Burnley

H

4

0

W

O

N

21 Feb

West Ham

A

1

2

L

O

G


The form score for the Everton is -0.052 and for the Tottenham is 0.032.
The home dynamic for the Everton is -0.575 and the dynamic as a guest for the Tottenham is -0.052.
The offensive ability for the Everton is -0.037 and for the Tottenham is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Everton is -0.037 and for the Tottenham is -0.278.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Everton and the red line for guest team, Tottenham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Everton

31%

34%

18%

18%

Tottenham

25%

33%

23%

19%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Everton to score 1.08 goals and Tottenham to score 1.46 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the guest team Tottenham to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Everton to score 1.21 goals and Tottenham to score 1.35 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.14 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.66

0-1

3.76

1

5.35

2-3

2.15

2

4.41

4+

3.73

3

4.20

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.17

Un 1.5

3.76

5

13.70

Ov 2.5

1.98

6+

30.30

Un 2.5

2.03

Gg

1.95

Ov 3.5

3.73

NoG

2.06

Un 3.5

1.37

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.13

3.37

2.61

2-3 goals

3.21

4.19

2.22

4+ goals

2.76

3.62

2.76

Ov 1.5

3.03

3.96

2.40

Un 1.5

3.13

3.37

2.61

Ov 2.5

2.56

6.84

2.16

Un 2.5

3.82

2.59

2.83

Ov 3.5

2.76

3.62

2.76

Un 3.5

3.18

3.85

2.35

Goal-Goal

3.34

2.78

2.94

No Goal

2.80

6.14

2.08

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.62

5.45

2.30

NG+Un 2.5

2.96

6.14

2.20


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Wolves vs Sheffield United at 17 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Wolves and Sheffield United for Premier League (England), which will take place on 17 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Wolves

1.73

1.60

4.7

Draw

3.57

4.35

-5.0

Sheffield United

5.88

6.99

-2.7

Over 2.5

2.40

2.10

6.0

Under 2.5

1.62

1.91

-9.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Wolves, Over 2.5 (4.7 %, 6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Wolves in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolves scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wolves in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolves scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wolves’s performance at home.
Wolves, at home, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 42.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolves scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wolves was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Apr

Fulham

A

1

0

W

U

N

05 Apr

West Ham

H

2

3

L

O

G

15 Mar

Liverpool

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Mar

Aston Villa

A

0

0

D

U

N

02 Mar

Man City

A

1

4

L

O

G

27 Feb

Newcastle

A

1

1

D

U

G

19 Feb

Leeds

H

1

0

W

U

N

14 Feb

Southampton

A

2

1

W

O

G


Sheffield United in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sheffield United in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sheffield United’s performance as a guest.
Sheffield United, as a guest, had one win, one draw, 13 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 8.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 6 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sheffield United was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Apr

Arsenal

H

0

3

L

O

N

03 Apr

Leeds

A

1

2

L

O

G

14 Mar

Leicester

A

0

5

L

O

N

06 Mar

Southampton

H

0

2

L

U

N

03 Mar

Aston Villa

H

1

0

W

U

N

28 Feb

Liverpool

H

0

2

L

U

N

20 Feb

Fulham

A

0

1

L

U

N

15 Feb

West Ham

A

0

3

L

O

N


The form score for the Wolves is -0.311 and for the Sheffield United is -0.825.
The home dynamic for the Wolves is -0.184 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sheffield United is -0.745.
The offensive ability for the Wolves is 0.037 and for the Sheffield United is -0.614.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Wolves is -0.281 and for the Sheffield United is -0.652.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wolves and the red line for guest team, Sheffield United.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Wolves

12%

37%

23%

28%

Sheffield United

47%

35%

13%

5%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wolves to score 1.52 goals and Sheffield United to score 0.66 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.17 goals in the game and the home team Wolves to win by 0.86 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wolves to score 1.67 goals and Sheffield United to score 0.77 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and the home team Wolves to win by 0.9 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

18.18

0-1

3.70

1

4.65

2-3

1.92

2

3.95

4+

4.76

3

3.75

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.76

Un 1.5

3.70

5

20.83

Ov 2.5

2.10

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.91

Gg

2.12

Ov 3.5

4.76

NoG

1.89

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.55

4.91

6.59

2-3 goals

1.64

3.97

7.22

4+ goals

1.54

4.77

7.00

Ov 1.5

1.61

4.17

7.16

Un 1.5

1.55

4.91

6.59

Ov 2.5

1.37

10.84

5.55

Un 2.5

1.87

2.81

9.18

Ov 3.5

1.54

4.77

7.00

Un 3.5

1.61

4.25

6.99

Goal-Goal

2.18

2.69

5.89

No Goal

1.29

9.62

8.40

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.57

7.73

4.25

NG+Un 2.5

1.40

9.62

6.88


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Newcastle vs West Ham at 17 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Newcastle and West Ham for Premier League (England), which will take place on 17 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Newcastle

3.60

3.19

3.6

Draw

3.46

3.88

-3.1

West Ham

2.10

2.33

-4.7

Over 2.5

1.88

1.94

-1.6

Under 2.5

1.95

2.07

-3.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Newcastle (3.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Newcastle in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Newcastle in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Newcastle’s performance at home.
Newcastle, at home, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 37.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Newcastle was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Apr

Burnley

A

2

1

W

O

G

04 Apr

Tottenham

H

2

2

D

O

G

20 Mar

Brighton

A

0

3

L

O

N

12 Mar

Aston Villa

H

1

1

D

U

G

07 Mar

West Brom

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Feb

Wolves

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Feb

Man United

A

1

3

L

O

G

15 Feb

Chelsea

A

0

2

L

U

N


West Ham in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, West Ham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, West Ham in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, West Ham scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at West Ham’s performance as a guest.
West Ham, as a guest, had 7 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 53.3% of the total available.
In these matches, West Ham scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of West Ham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Apr

Leicester

H

3

2

W

O

G

05 Apr

Wolves

A

3

2

W

O

G

21 Mar

Arsenal

H

3

3

D

O

G

14 Mar

Man United

A

0

1

L

U

N

08 Mar

Leeds

H

2

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Man City

A

1

2

L

O

G

21 Feb

Tottenham

H

2

1

W

O

G

15 Feb

Sheffield United

H

3

0

W

O

N


The form score for the Newcastle is 0.022 and for the West Ham is 0.183.
The home dynamic for the Newcastle is -0.43 and the dynamic as a guest for the West Ham is 0.331.
The offensive ability for the Newcastle is 0.07 and for the West Ham is 0.614.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Newcastle is -0.704 and for the West Ham is -0.652.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Newcastle and the red line for guest team, West Ham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Newcastle

33%

31%

21%

16%

West Ham

24%

32%

24%

20%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Newcastle to score 1.04 goals and West Ham to score 1.53 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and the guest team West Ham to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Newcastle to score 1.19 goals and West Ham to score 1.41 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.22 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

3.89

1

5.59

2-3

2.12

2

4.41

4+

3.68

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.21

Un 1.5

3.89

5

12.66

Ov 2.5

1.94

6+

31.25

Un 2.5

2.07

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

3.68

NoG

2.04

Un 3.5

1.37

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.52

3.29

2.42

2-3 goals

3.10

4.76

2.14

4+ goals

3.13

3.36

2.62

Ov 1.5

3.11

4.13

2.29

Un 1.5

3.52

3.29

2.42

Ov 2.5

2.72

6.37

2.11

Un 2.5

3.97

2.73

2.62

Ov 3.5

3.13

3.36

2.62

Un 3.5

3.24

4.11

2.23

Goal-Goal

3.34

2.84

2.87

No Goal

3.08

6.27

1.94

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.69

5.09

2.31

NG+Un 2.5

3.16

6.27

2.08


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Arsenal vs Fulham at 18 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Arsenal and Fulham for Premier League (England), which will take place on 18 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Arsenal

1.75

2.21

-11.9

Draw

3.76

3.83

-0.5

Fulham

4.92

3.48

8.4

Over 2.5

2.06

2.03

0.7

Under 2.5

1.79

1.97

-5.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Fulham, Over 2.5 (8.4 %, 0.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Arsenal in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Arsenal scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Arsenal in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Arsenal scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Arsenal’s performance at home.
Arsenal, at home, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Arsenal scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Arsenal was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Apr

Sheffield United

A

3

0

W

O

N

03 Apr

Liverpool

H

0

3

L

O

N

21 Mar

West Ham

A

3

3

D

O

G

14 Mar

Tottenham

H

2

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Burnley

A

1

1

D

U

G

28 Feb

Leicester

A

3

1

W

O

G

21 Feb

Man City

H

0

1

L

U

N

14 Feb

Leeds

H

4

2

W

O

G


Fulham in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Fulham scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Fulham in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Fulham scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Fulham’s performance as a guest.
Fulham, as a guest, had 3 wins, 7 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 35.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Fulham scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Fulham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Apr

Wolves

H

0

1

L

U

N

04 Apr

Aston Villa

A

1

3

L

O

G

19 Mar

Leeds

H

1

2

L

O

G

13 Mar

Man City

H

0

3

L

O

N

07 Mar

Liverpool

A

1

0

W

U

N

04 Mar

Tottenham

H

0

1

L

U

N

28 Feb

Crystal Palace

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Sheffield United

H

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Arsenal is 0.311 and for the Fulham is -0.825.
The home dynamic for the Arsenal is 0.017 and the dynamic as a guest for the Fulham is -0.084.
The offensive ability for the Arsenal is 0.465 and for the Fulham is -0.193.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Arsenal is -0.607 and for the Fulham is -0.652.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Arsenal and the red line for guest team, Fulham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Arsenal

23%

29%

33%

15%

Fulham

33%

36%

19%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Arsenal to score 1.63 goals and Fulham to score 0.78 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and the home team Arsenal to win by 0.85 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Arsenal to score 1.4 goals and Fulham to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.29 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.16

0-1

3.97

1

5.68

2-3

1.98

2

3.94

4+

4.13

3

4.00

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.54

Un 1.5

3.97

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

2.03

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.98

Gg

1.94

Ov 3.5

4.13

NoG

2.07

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at