# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Everton vs Tottenham at 16 April 2021**** Wolves vs Sheffield United at 17 April 2021**** Newcastle vs West Ham at 17 April 2021**** Arsenal vs Fulham at 18 April 2021**** Man United vs Burnley at 18 April 2021**** Leeds vs Liverpool at 19 April 2021**

###
Everton vs Tottenham at 16 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Everton** and **Tottenham** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **16 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Everton |
3.39 |
3.04 |
3.4 |

Draw |
3.41 |
3.80 |
-3.0 |

Tottenham |
2.22 |
2.45 |
-4.2 |

Over 2.5 |
1.92 |
1.98 |
-1.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.92 |
2.02 |
-2.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Everton (3.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Everton** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Everton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Everton** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Everton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Everton’s performance** at home**.

Everton,** at home**, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 40.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Everton scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Everton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Apr |
Brighton |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
Crystal Palace |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Mar |
Burnley |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

08 Mar |
Chelsea |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

04 Mar |
West Brom |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Mar |
Southampton |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Liverpool |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Feb |
Man City |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Tottenham** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Tottenham** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Tottenham** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Tottenham** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Tottenham’s performance** as a guest**.

Tottenham,** as a guest**, had 7 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 52.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Tottenham scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Tottenham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

11 Apr |
Man United |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

04 Apr |
Newcastle |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

21 Mar |
Aston Villa |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

14 Mar |
Arsenal |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Mar |
Crystal Palace |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

04 Mar |
Fulham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Feb |
Burnley |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

21 Feb |
West Ham |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Everton** is **-0.052** and for the **Tottenham** is **0.032.**

The home dynamic for the **Everton** is **-0.575** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Tottenham** is **-0.052.**

The offensive ability for the **Everton** is **-0.037** and for the **Tottenham** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Everton** is **-0.037** and for the **Tottenham** is **-0.278.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Everton** and the red line for guest team, **Tottenham. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Everton |
31% |
34% |
18% |
18% |

Tottenham |
25% |
33% |
23% |
19% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Everton** to score **1.08 ** goals and **Tottenham** to score **1.46 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.54** goals in the game and the guest team **Tottenham ** to win by **0.38** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Everton** to score **1.21 ** goals and **Tottenham** to score **1.35 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.56** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.14** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
3.76 |

1 |
5.35 |
2-3 |
2.15 |

2 |
4.41 |
4+ |
3.73 |

3 |
4.20 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.17 |
Un 1.5 |
3.76 |

5 |
13.70 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |

6+ |
30.30 |
Un 2.5 |
2.03 |

Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.73 |

NoG |
2.06 |
Un 3.5 |
1.37 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.13 |
3.37 |
2.61 |

2-3 goals |
3.21 |
4.19 |
2.22 |

4+ goals |
2.76 |
3.62 |
2.76 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.03 |
3.96 |
2.40 |

Un 1.5 |
3.13 |
3.37 |
2.61 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.56 |
6.84 |
2.16 |

Un 2.5 |
3.82 |
2.59 |
2.83 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.76 |
3.62 |
2.76 |

Un 3.5 |
3.18 |
3.85 |
2.35 |

Goal-Goal |
3.34 |
2.78 |
2.94 |

No Goal |
2.80 |
6.14 |
2.08 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.62 |
5.45 |
2.30 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.96 |
6.14 |
2.20 |

####
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###
Wolves vs Sheffield United at 17 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Wolves** and **Sheffield United** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **17 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Wolves |
1.73 |
1.60 |
4.7 |

Draw |
3.57 |
4.35 |
-5.0 |

Sheffield United |
5.88 |
6.99 |
-2.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.40 |
2.10 |
6.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.62 |
1.91 |
-9.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Wolves, Over 2.5 (4.7 %, 6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Wolves** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolves scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Wolves** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolves scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wolves’s performance** at home**.

Wolves,** at home**, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 42.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolves scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Wolves was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Apr |
Fulham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
West Ham |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Mar |
Liverpool |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Aston Villa |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Man City |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Newcastle |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Feb |
Leeds |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Southampton |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Sheffield United** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sheffield United** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sheffield United’s performance** as a guest**.

Sheffield United,** as a guest**, had one win, one draw, 13 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 8.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 6 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sheffield United was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

11 Apr |
Arsenal |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

03 Apr |
Leeds |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Mar |
Leicester |
A |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

06 Mar |
Southampton |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Mar |
Aston Villa |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Feb |
Liverpool |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Fulham |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

15 Feb |
West Ham |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

The form score for the **Wolves** is **-0.311** and for the **Sheffield United** is **-0.825.**

The home dynamic for the **Wolves** is **-0.184** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Sheffield United** is **-0.745.**

The offensive ability for the **Wolves** is **0.037** and for the **Sheffield United** is **-0.614.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Wolves** is **-0.281** and for the **Sheffield United** is **-0.652.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Wolves** and the red line for guest team, **Sheffield United. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Wolves |
12% |
37% |
23% |
28% |

Sheffield United |
47% |
35% |
13% |
5% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Wolves** to score **1.52 ** goals and **Sheffield United** to score **0.66 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.17** goals in the game and the home team **Wolves ** to win by **0.86** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Wolves** to score **1.67 ** goals and **Sheffield United** to score **0.77 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.44** goals in the game and the home team **Wolves ** to win by **0.9** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
18.18 |
0-1 |
3.70 |

1 |
4.65 |
2-3 |
1.92 |

2 |
3.95 |
4+ |
4.76 |

3 |
3.75 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
6.76 |
Un 1.5 |
3.70 |

5 |
20.83 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.10 |

6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.91 |

Gg |
2.12 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.76 |

NoG |
1.89 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.55 |
4.91 |
6.59 |

2-3 goals |
1.64 |
3.97 |
7.22 |

4+ goals |
1.54 |
4.77 |
7.00 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.61 |
4.17 |
7.16 |

Un 1.5 |
1.55 |
4.91 |
6.59 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.37 |
10.84 |
5.55 |

Un 2.5 |
1.87 |
2.81 |
9.18 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.54 |
4.77 |
7.00 |

Un 3.5 |
1.61 |
4.25 |
6.99 |

Goal-Goal |
2.18 |
2.69 |
5.89 |

No Goal |
1.29 |
9.62 |
8.40 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.57 |
7.73 |
4.25 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.40 |
9.62 |
6.88 |

####
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###
Newcastle vs West Ham at 17 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Newcastle** and **West Ham** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **17 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Newcastle |
3.60 |
3.19 |
3.6 |

Draw |
3.46 |
3.88 |
-3.1 |

West Ham |
2.10 |
2.33 |
-4.7 |

Over 2.5 |
1.88 |
1.94 |
-1.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.95 |
2.07 |
-3.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Newcastle (3.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Newcastle** in the **last six** matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Newcastle scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Newcastle** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Newcastle scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Newcastle’s performance** at home**.

Newcastle,** at home**, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 37.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Newcastle scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Newcastle was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

11 Apr |
Burnley |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

04 Apr |
Tottenham |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Brighton |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

12 Mar |
Aston Villa |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Mar |
West Brom |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Wolves |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Feb |
Man United |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Feb |
Chelsea |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**West Ham** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, West Ham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **West Ham** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, West Ham** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at West Ham’s performance** as a guest**.

West Ham,** as a guest**, had 7 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 53.3% of the total available.

In these matches, West Ham scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of West Ham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

11 Apr |
Leicester |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Wolves |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Mar |
Arsenal |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

14 Mar |
Man United |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

08 Mar |
Leeds |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Man City |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Feb |
Tottenham |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

15 Feb |
Sheffield United |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

The form score for the **Newcastle** is **0.022** and for the **West Ham** is **0.183.**

The home dynamic for the **Newcastle** is **-0.43** and the dynamic as a guest for the **West Ham** is **0.331.**

The offensive ability for the **Newcastle** is **0.07** and for the **West Ham** is **0.614.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Newcastle** is **-0.704** and for the **West Ham** is **-0.652.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Newcastle** and the red line for guest team, **West Ham. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Newcastle |
33% |
31% |
21% |
16% |

West Ham |
24% |
32% |
24% |
20% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Newcastle** to score **1.04 ** goals and **West Ham** to score **1.53 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.58** goals in the game and the guest team **West Ham ** to win by **0.49** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Newcastle** to score **1.19 ** goals and **West Ham** to score **1.41 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.6** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.22** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
3.89 |

1 |
5.59 |
2-3 |
2.12 |

2 |
4.41 |
4+ |
3.68 |

3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.21 |
Un 1.5 |
3.89 |

5 |
12.66 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.94 |

6+ |
31.25 |
Un 2.5 |
2.07 |

Gg |
1.96 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.68 |

NoG |
2.04 |
Un 3.5 |
1.37 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.52 |
3.29 |
2.42 |

2-3 goals |
3.10 |
4.76 |
2.14 |

4+ goals |
3.13 |
3.36 |
2.62 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.11 |
4.13 |
2.29 |

Un 1.5 |
3.52 |
3.29 |
2.42 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.72 |
6.37 |
2.11 |

Un 2.5 |
3.97 |
2.73 |
2.62 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.13 |
3.36 |
2.62 |

Un 3.5 |
3.24 |
4.11 |
2.23 |

Goal-Goal |
3.34 |
2.84 |
2.87 |

No Goal |
3.08 |
6.27 |
1.94 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.69 |
5.09 |
2.31 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.16 |
6.27 |
2.08 |

####
Go to Top

###
Arsenal vs Fulham at 18 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Arsenal** and **Fulham** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **18 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Arsenal |
1.75 |
2.21 |
-11.9 |

Draw |
3.76 |
3.83 |
-0.5 |

Fulham |
4.92 |
3.48 |
8.4 |

Over 2.5 |
2.06 |
2.03 |
0.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.79 |
1.97 |
-5.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Fulham, Over 2.5 (8.4 %, 0.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Arsenal** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Arsenal scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Arsenal** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Arsenal scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Arsenal’s performance** at home**.

Arsenal,** at home**, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 46.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Arsenal scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Arsenal was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

11 Apr |
Sheffield United |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

03 Apr |
Liverpool |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

21 Mar |
West Ham |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

14 Mar |
Tottenham |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Burnley |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Feb |
Leicester |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Feb |
Man City |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Leeds |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

**Fulham** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Fulham scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Fulham** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Fulham scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Fulham’s performance** as a guest**.

Fulham,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 7 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 35.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Fulham scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Fulham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Apr |
Wolves |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

04 Apr |
Aston Villa |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Mar |
Leeds |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Man City |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

07 Mar |
Liverpool |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

04 Mar |
Tottenham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

28 Feb |
Crystal Palace |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Sheffield United |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Arsenal** is **0.311** and for the **Fulham** is **-0.825.**

The home dynamic for the **Arsenal** is **0.017** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Fulham** is **-0.084.**

The offensive ability for the **Arsenal** is **0.465** and for the **Fulham** is **-0.193.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Arsenal** is **-0.607** and for the **Fulham** is **-0.652.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Arsenal** and the red line for guest team, **Fulham. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Arsenal |
23% |
29% |
33% |
15% |

Fulham |
33% |
36% |
19% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Arsenal** to score **1.63 ** goals and **Fulham** to score **0.78 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.4** goals in the game and the home team **Arsenal ** to win by **0.85** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Arsenal** to score **1.4 ** goals and **Fulham** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.51** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.29** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.16 |
0-1 |
3.97 |

1 |
5.68 |
2-3 |
1.98 |

2 |
3.94 |
4+ |
4.13 |

3 |
4.00 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.54 |
Un 1.5 |
3.97 |

5 |
14.29 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.03 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.98 |

Gg |
1.94 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.13 |

NoG |
2.07 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |