2021 04 16 Primeira Liga (Portugal)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Boavista vs Pacos Ferreira at 16 April 2021
Rio Ave vs Sp Braga at 17 April 2021
Moreirense vs Tondela at 17 April 2021
Farense vs Sp Lisbon at 17 April 2021
Benfica vs Gil Vicente at 17 April 2021
Belenenses vs Maritimo at 17 April 2021
Guimaraes vs Santa Clara at 17 April 2021
Famalicao vs Portimonense at 18 April 2021
Nacional vs Porto at 18 April 2021


Boavista vs Pacos Ferreira at 16 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Boavista and Pacos Ferreira for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 16 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Boavista

2.52

3.23

-8.7

Draw

3.01

3.68

-6.0

Pacos Ferreira

2.94

2.39

7.8

Over 2.5

2.39

2.24

2.8

Under 2.5

1.58

1.81

-8.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Pacos Ferreira, Over 2.5 (7.8 %, 2.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Boavista in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Boavista scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Boavista in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Boavista scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Boavista’s performance at home.
Boavista, at home, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 30.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Boavista scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Boavista was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Rio Ave

H

3

3

D

O

G

04 Apr

Belenenses

A

2

0

W

U

N

21 Mar

Farense

H

0

1

L

U

N

13 Mar

Benfica

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Mar

Famalicao

H

3

0

W

O

N

26 Feb

Guimaraes

A

1

2

L

O

G

19 Feb

Moreirense

H

1

0

W

U

N

13 Feb

Porto

A

2

2

D

O

G


Pacos Ferreira in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pacos Ferreira in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Pacos Ferreira’s performance as a guest.
Pacos Ferreira, as a guest, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 38.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pacos Ferreira was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Benfica

H

0

5

L

O

N

04 Apr

Famalicao

A

0

2

L

U

N

20 Mar

Moreirense

H

3

0

W

O

N

14 Mar

Porto

A

0

2

L

U

N

05 Mar

Nacional

H

2

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

Santa Clara

A

0

3

L

O

N

21 Feb

Guimaraes

H

2

1

W

O

G

15 Feb

Sp Lisbon

A

0

2

L

U

N


The form score for the Boavista is -0.133 and for the Pacos Ferreira is -0.452.
The home dynamic for the Boavista is -0.687 and the dynamic as a guest for the Pacos Ferreira is -0.131.
The offensive ability for the Boavista is 0.037 and for the Pacos Ferreira is -0.641.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Boavista is -0.333 and for the Pacos Ferreira is -0.591.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Boavista and the red line for guest team, Pacos Ferreira.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Boavista

33%

37%

18%

11%

Pacos Ferreira

29%

30%

26%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Boavista to score 1.13 goals and Pacos Ferreira to score 1.02 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.15 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Boavista to score 1.08 goals and Pacos Ferreira to score 1.28 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.2 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.53

0-1

3.31

1

4.83

2-3

2.05

2

3.97

4+

4.74

3

4.26

Ov 1.5

1.43

4

7.30

Un 1.5

3.31

5

17.54

Ov 2.5

2.24

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.81

Gg

2.10

Ov 3.5

4.74

NoG

1.91

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.85

3.18

2.99

2-3 goals

3.45

4.35

2.08

4+ goals

3.35

3.25

2.54

Ov 1.5

3.42

3.94

2.20

Un 1.5

2.85

3.18

2.99

Ov 2.5

2.95

6.86

1.94

Un 2.5

3.48

2.68

2.95

Ov 3.5

3.35

3.25

2.54

Un 3.5

3.19

3.81

2.36

Goal-Goal

4.00

2.69

2.64

No Goal

2.74

5.52

2.20

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.06

5.60

2.02

NG+Un 2.5

2.78

5.52

2.35


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Rio Ave vs Sp Braga at 17 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Rio Ave and Sp Braga for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 17 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Rio Ave

4.21

5.43

-5.3

Draw

3.55

4.02

-3.3

Sp Braga

1.82

1.76

1.9

Over 2.5

1.92

2.35

-9.5

Under 2.5

1.88

1.74

4.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Sp Braga, Under 2.5 (1.9 %, 4.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Rio Ave in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rio Ave in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rio Ave’s performance at home.
Rio Ave, at home, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 41.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rio Ave was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Boavista

A

3

3

D

O

G

03 Apr

Gil Vicente

H

0

2

L

U

N

21 Mar

Belenenses

H

0

0

D

U

N

14 Mar

Moreirense

A

1

1

D

U

G

07 Mar

Farense

H

2

0

W

U

N

01 Mar

Benfica

A

0

2

L

U

N

21 Feb

Famalicao

H

0

1

L

U

N

13 Feb

Guimaraes

A

3

1

W

O

G


Sp Braga in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Braga scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sp Braga in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Braga scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sp Braga’s performance as a guest.
Sp Braga, as a guest, had 8 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 64.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Braga scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sp Braga was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Apr

Belenenses

H

1

1

D

U

G

05 Apr

Farense

A

2

1

W

O

G

21 Mar

Benfica

H

0

2

L

U

N

15 Mar

Famalicao

A

2

2

D

O

G

09 Mar

Guimaraes

H

3

0

W

O

N

28 Feb

Nacional

A

2

1

W

O

G

21 Feb

Tondela

H

4

2

W

O

G

14 Feb

Santa Clara

A

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Rio Ave is -0.17 and for the Sp Braga is 0.246.
The home dynamic for the Rio Ave is -0.128 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sp Braga is 0.339.
The offensive ability for the Rio Ave is -0.422 and for the Sp Braga is 0.578.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Rio Ave is -0.356 and for the Sp Braga is -0.652.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Rio Ave and the red line for guest team, Sp Braga.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Rio Ave

45%

38%

14%

3%

Sp Braga

24%

23%

34%

19%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Rio Ave to score 0.89 goals and Sp Braga to score 1.63 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and the guest team Sp Braga to win by 0.74 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Rio Ave to score 0.76 goals and Sp Braga to score 1.48 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and the guest team Sp Braga to win by 0.72 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.35

0-1

3.32

1

5.15

2-3

1.89

2

3.65

4+

5.85

3

3.94

Ov 1.5

1.43

4

7.87

Un 1.5

3.32

5

26.32

Ov 2.5

2.35

6+

166.67

Un 2.5

1.74

Gg

2.38

Ov 3.5

5.85

NoG

1.73

Un 3.5

1.21

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.31

2.81

2.92

2-3 goals

7.04

6.00

1.45

4+ goals

9.50

3.17

1.73

Ov 1.5

7.52

4.92

1.51

Un 1.5

3.31

2.81

2.92

Ov 2.5

7.20

7.87

1.36

Un 2.5

4.60

2.95

2.25

Ov 3.5

9.50

3.17

1.73

Un 3.5

4.99

4.25

1.77

Goal-Goal

8.25

2.96

1.85

No Goal

4.35

5.41

1.71

G-G+Ov 2.5

6.53

6.17

1.46

NG+Un 2.5

3.90

5.41

1.91


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Moreirense vs Tondela at 17 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Moreirense and Tondela for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 17 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Moreirense

2.23

2.52

-5.2

Draw

3.21

3.65

-3.8

Tondela

3.27

3.04

2.3

Over 2.5

2.16

2.44

-5.3

Under 2.5

1.68

1.69

-0.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Tondela (2.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Moreirense in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Moreirense scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Moreirense in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Moreirense scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Moreirense’s performance at home.
Moreirense, at home, had 3 wins, 8 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 43.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Moreirense scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Moreirense was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Apr

Gil Vicente

A

2

1

W

O

G

05 Apr

Sp Lisbon

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Mar

Pacos Ferreira

A

0

3

L

O

N

14 Mar

Rio Ave

H

1

1

D

U

G

07 Mar

Maritimo

A

2

0

W

U

N

01 Mar

Belenenses

H

2

2

D

O

G

19 Feb

Boavista

A

0

1

L

U

N

14 Feb

Benfica

H

1

1

D

U

G


Tondela in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Tondela scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Tondela in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Tondela scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Tondela’s performance as a guest.
Tondela, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 12.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Tondela scored in 8 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Tondela was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Porto

H

0

2

L

U

N

04 Apr

Guimaraes

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Mar

Santa Clara

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Sp Lisbon

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Mar

Portimonense

A

0

3

L

O

N

28 Feb

Gil Vicente

H

1

0

W

U

N

21 Feb

Sp Braga

A

2

4

L

O

G

16 Feb

Maritimo

H

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Moreirense is 0.17 and for the Tondela is -0.27.
The home dynamic for the Moreirense is -0.117 and the dynamic as a guest for the Tondela is -1.
The offensive ability for the Moreirense is 0.497 and for the Tondela is -0.229.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Moreirense is -0.704 and for the Tondela is -0.678.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Moreirense and the red line for guest team, Tondela.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Moreirense

31%

36%

20%

14%

Tondela

41%

23%

29%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Moreirense to score 1.3 goals and Tondela to score 0.99 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and the home team Moreirense to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Moreirense to score 1.16 goals and Tondela to score 1.04 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.2 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.06

0-1

2.94

1

4.63

2-3

2.09

2

3.98

4+

5.49

3

4.41

Ov 1.5

1.52

4

8.62

Un 1.5

2.94

5

18.18

Ov 2.5

2.44

6+

90.91

Un 2.5

1.69

Gg

2.43

Ov 3.5

5.49

NoG

1.70

Un 3.5

1.22

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.33

2.74

4.86

2-3 goals

2.64

5.83

2.22

4+ goals

2.60

2.68

4.14

Ov 1.5

2.63

4.40

2.55

Un 1.5

2.33

2.74

4.86

Ov 2.5

2.41

6.01

2.39

Un 2.5

2.60

2.87

3.74

Ov 3.5

2.60

2.68

4.14

Un 3.5

2.50

3.97

2.87

Goal-Goal

3.58

2.75

2.80

No Goal

2.09

4.74

3.23

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.87

4.85

2.24

NG+Un 2.5

2.24

4.74

3.22


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Farense vs Sp Lisbon at 17 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Farense and Sp Lisbon for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 17 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Farense

6.20

4.42

6.5

Draw

3.90

3.89

0.1

Sp Lisbon

1.54

1.93

-13.1

Over 2.5

2.05

1.97

2.0

Under 2.5

1.77

2.03

-7.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Farense, Draw, Over 2.5 (6.5 %, 0.1 %, 2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Farense in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Farense scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Farense in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Farense scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Farense’s performance at home.
Farense, at home, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Farense scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Farense was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Maritimo

A

0

1

L

U

N

05 Apr

Sp Braga

H

1

2

L

O

G

21 Mar

Boavista

A

1

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Belenenses

H

0

1

L

U

N

07 Mar

Rio Ave

A

0

2

L

U

N

27 Feb

Famalicao

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Feb

Benfica

H

0

0

D

U

N

17 Feb

Guimaraes

A

2

2

D

O

G


Sp Lisbon in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sp Lisbon in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sp Lisbon’s performance as a guest.
Sp Lisbon, as a guest, had 10 wins, 3 draws, no defeats and gathered 33 points, 84.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sp Lisbon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Apr

Famalicao

H

1

1

D

U

G

05 Apr

Moreirense

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Mar

Guimaraes

H

1

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Tondela

A

1

0

W

U

N

05 Mar

Santa Clara

H

2

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

Porto

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Portimonense

H

2

0

W

U

N

15 Feb

Pacos Ferreira

H

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Farense is -0.519 and for the Sp Lisbon is 0.444.
The home dynamic for the Farense is -0.497 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sp Lisbon is 1.
The offensive ability for the Farense is -0.85 and for the Sp Lisbon is 0.668.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Farense is -0.385 and for the Sp Lisbon is 0.104.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Farense and the red line for guest team, Sp Lisbon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Farense

36%

38%

17%

9%

Sp Lisbon

18%

36%

16%

29%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Farense to score 0.65 goals and Sp Lisbon to score 1.74 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and the guest team Sp Lisbon to win by 1.09 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Farense to score 0.99 goals and Sp Lisbon to score 1.56 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and the guest team Sp Lisbon to win by 0.57 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.93

0-1

3.75

1

5.00

2-3

2.12

2

4.42

4+

3.82

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

5.85

Un 1.5

3.75

5

15.38

Ov 2.5

1.97

6+

38.46

Un 2.5

2.03

Gg

1.92

Ov 3.5

3.82

NoG

2.08

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-