2021 04 16 Segunda Division (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Fuenlabrada vs Sabadell at 16 April 2021
Girona vs Zaragoza at 16 April 2021
Sp Gijon vs Oviedo at 17 April 2021
Castellon vs Mallorca at 17 April 2021
Las Palmas vs Malaga at 17 April 2021
Lugo vs Alcorcon at 17 April 2021
Albacete vs Mirandes at 18 April 2021
Cartagena vs Tenerife at 18 April 2021
Logrones vs Vallecano at 18 April 2021
Almeria vs Espanol at 19 April 2021
Leganes vs Ponferradina at 19 April 2021


Fuenlabrada vs Sabadell at 16 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Fuenlabrada and Sabadell for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 16 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Fuenlabrada

1.91

2.21

-7.1

Draw

3.25

3.61

-3.1

Sabadell

4.37

3.70

4.1

Over 2.5

2.42

2.33

1.6

Under 2.5

1.57

1.75

-6.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Sabadell, Over 2.5 (4.1 %, 1.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Fuenlabrada in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Fuenlabrada scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Fuenlabrada in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Fuenlabrada didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Fuenlabrada’s performance at home.
Fuenlabrada, at home, had 3 wins, 10 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 37.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Fuenlabrada scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Fuenlabrada was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Ponferradina

A

0

0

D

U

N

05 Apr

Zaragoza

H

0

1

L

U

N

01 Apr

Espanol

A

0

4

L

O

N

29 Mar

Mallorca

H

4

1

W

O

G

20 Mar

Leganes

A

2

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Las Palmas

H

1

2

L

O

G

08 Mar

Lugo

A

0

0

D

U

N

28 Feb

Girona

H

1

1

D

U

G


Sabadell in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sabadell scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sabadell in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Sabadell scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Sabadell’s performance as a guest.
Sabadell, as a guest, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 35.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sabadell scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sabadell was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Apr

Cartagena

H

1

1

D

U

G

04 Apr

Leganes

A

1

2

L

O

G

31 Mar

Girona

H

2

2

D

O

G

28 Mar

Lugo

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Sp Gijon

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Castellon

A

1

2

L

O

G

07 Mar

Malaga

A

0

2

L

U

N

26 Feb

Albacete

H

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Fuenlabrada is -0.185 and for the Sabadell is -0.246.
The home dynamic for the Fuenlabrada is -0.263 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sabadell is 0.028.
The offensive ability for the Fuenlabrada is -0.604 and for the Sabadell is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Fuenlabrada is -0.311 and for the Sabadell is -0.626.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Fuenlabrada and the red line for guest team, Sabadell.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Fuenlabrada

24%

35%

25%

15%

Sabadell

36%

37%

19%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Fuenlabrada to score 1.36 goals and Sabadell to score 0.77 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.13 goals in the game and the home team Fuenlabrada to win by 0.59 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Fuenlabrada to score 1.32 goals and Sabadell to score 0.99 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and the home team Fuenlabrada to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.24

0-1

3.27

1

4.61

2-3

1.99

2

3.75

4+

5.15

3

4.24

Ov 1.5

1.43

4

7.52

Un 1.5

3.27

5

20.41

Ov 2.5

2.33

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

1.75

Gg

2.07

Ov 3.5

5.15

NoG

1.92

Un 3.5

1.24

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.43

3.44

3.36

2-3 goals

2.08

3.90

3.81

4+ goals

2.26

3.23

4.04

Ov 1.5

2.12

3.69

3.87

Un 1.5

2.43

3.44

3.36

Ov 2.5

1.82

7.17

3.21

Un 2.5

2.63

2.63

4.18

Ov 3.5

2.26

3.23

4.04

Un 3.5

2.20

3.71

3.63

Goal-Goal

2.68

2.56

4.24

No Goal

1.90

5.84

3.31

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.97

5.90

3.11

NG+Un 2.5

2.04

5.84

3.24


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Girona vs Zaragoza at 16 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Girona and Zaragoza for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 16 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Girona

2.22

2.04

4.0

Draw

2.99

3.73

-6.6

Zaragoza

3.59

4.12

-3.6

Over 2.5

2.60

2.23

6.4

Under 2.5

1.48

1.81

-12.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Girona, Over 2.5 (4 %, 6.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Girona in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Girona scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Girona in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Girona scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Girona’s performance at home.
Girona, at home, had 8 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 54.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Girona scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Girona was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Vallecano

A

1

2

L

O

G

03 Apr

Ponferradina

H

3

1

W

O

G

31 Mar

Sabadell

A

2

2

D

O

G

28 Mar

Albacete

H

2

1

W

O

G

19 Mar

Las Palmas

A

2

1

W

O

G

13 Mar

Lugo

H

1

1

D

U

G

07 Mar

Almeria

H

0

1

L

U

N

28 Feb

Fuenlabrada

A

1

1

D

U

G


Zaragoza in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Zaragoza in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Zaragoza’s performance as a guest.
Zaragoza, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 19.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Zaragoza was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Apr

Almeria

H

2

1

W

O

G

05 Apr

Fuenlabrada

A

1

0

W

U

N

01 Apr

Cartagena

H

0

0

D

U

N

27 Mar

Logrones

A

1

1

D

U

G

22 Mar

Mirandes

H

1

0

W

U

N

12 Mar

Vallecano

A

2

3

L

O

G

06 Mar

Tenerife

H

1

0

W

U

N

28 Feb

Oviedo

A

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Girona is 0.296 and for the Zaragoza is 0.349.
The home dynamic for the Girona is -0.061 and the dynamic as a guest for the Zaragoza is -0.57.
The offensive ability for the Girona is 1 and for the Zaragoza is 0.578.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Girona is -1 and for the Zaragoza is 0.191.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Girona and the red line for guest team, Zaragoza.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Girona

21%

34%

26%

18%

Zaragoza

37%

37%

18%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Girona to score 1.17 goals and Zaragoza to score 0.85 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.02 goals in the game and the home team Girona to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Girona to score 1.41 goals and Zaragoza to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and the home team Girona to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.48

1

4.83

2-3

1.97

2

3.79

4+

4.83

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

7.09

Un 1.5

3.48

5

18.87

Ov 2.5

2.22

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.81

Gg

2.03

Ov 3.5

4.83

NoG

1.97

Un 3.5

1.26

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.22

3.59

3.68

2-3 goals

1.94

4.02

4.23

4+ goals

2.09

3.34

4.50

Ov 1.5

1.98

3.80

4.30

Un 1.5

2.22

3.59

3.68

Ov 2.5

1.72

7.26

3.57

Un 2.5

2.43

2.67

4.67

Ov 3.5

2.09

3.34

4.50

Un 3.5

2.04

3.85

4.01

Goal-Goal

2.53

2.62

4.48

No Goal

1.73

6.35

3.79

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.88

5.92

3.34

NG+Un 2.5

1.87

6.35

3.60


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Sp Gijon vs Oviedo at 17 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sp Gijon and Oviedo for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 17 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sp Gijon

2.24

1.96

6.4

Draw

2.94

3.82

-7.8

Oviedo

3.56

4.39

-5.3

Over 2.5

2.85

2.18

10.8

Under 2.5

1.40

1.85

-17.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Sp Gijon, Over 2.5 (6.4 %, 10.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sp Gijon in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Gijon scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sp Gijon in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Gijon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sp Gijon’s performance at home.
Sp Gijon, at home, had 9 wins, 7 draws, one defeat and gathered 34 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Gijon scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sp Gijon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Apr

Tenerife

A

0

1

L

U

N

04 Apr

Mirandes

H

1

2

L

O

G

30 Mar

Vallecano

A

1

0

W

U

N

26 Mar

Alcorcon

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Mar

Sabadell

A

1

1

D

U

G

14 Mar

Mallorca

H

2

0

W

U

N

07 Mar

Ponferradina

A

2

2

D

O

G

28 Feb

Espanol

H

1

1

D

U

G


Oviedo in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Oviedo scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Oviedo in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Oviedo scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Oviedo’s performance as a guest.
Oviedo, as a guest, had 3 wins, 9 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 35.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Oviedo scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Oviedo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Las Palmas

H

0

0

D

U

N

03 Apr

Castellon

A

0

1

L

U

N

30 Mar

Alcorcon

A

1

1

D

U

G

27 Mar

Ponferradina

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Mar

Mallorca

A

0

0

D

U

N

14 Mar

Leganes

H

1

3

L

O

G

05 Mar

Espanol

A

1

1

D

U

G

28 Feb

Zaragoza

H

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Sp Gijon is -0.074 and for the Oviedo is -0.413.
The home dynamic for the Sp Gijon is 0.542 and the dynamic as a guest for the Oviedo is -0.084.
The offensive ability for the Sp Gijon is -0.037 and for the Oviedo is -0.283.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Sp Gijon is -0.059 and for the Oviedo is -0.191.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sp Gijon and the red line for guest team, Oviedo.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sp Gijon

20%

34%

27%

19%

Oviedo

38%

36%

18%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sp Gijon to score 1.09 goals and Oviedo to score 0.8 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.9 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.29 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sp Gijon to score 1.46 goals and Oviedo to score 0.94 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and the home team Sp Gijon to win by 0.52 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.60

1

4.93

2-3

1.96

2

3.80

4+

4.72

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.94

Un 1.5

3.60

5

18.52

Ov 2.5

2.18

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.85

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

4.72

NoG

1.98

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.12

3.71

3.86

2-3 goals

1.87

4.07

4.54

4+ goals

2.00

3.42

4.82

Ov 1.5

1.91

3.86

4.62

Un 1.5

2.12

3.71

3.86

Ov 2.5

1.66

7.39

3.82

Un 2.5

2.32

2.70

5.01

Ov 3.5

2.00

3.42

4.82

Un 3.5

1.95

3.93

4.28

Goal-Goal

2.45

2.65

4.67

No Goal

1.64

6.72

4.13

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.83

5.97

3.49

NG+Un 2.5

1.79

6.72

3.85


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Castellon vs Mallorca at 17 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Castellon and Mallorca for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 17 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Castellon

4.53

2.84

13.1

Draw

3.09

3.47

-3.5

Mallorca

1.96

2.78

-15.0

Over 2.5

2.49

2.44

0.8

Under 2.5

1.53

1.69

-6.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Castellon, Over 2.5 (13.1 %, 0.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Castellon in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Castellon scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Castellon in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Castellon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Castellon’s performance at home.
Castellon, at home, had 8 wins, no draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 47.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Castellon scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Castellon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Apr

Alcorcon

A

1

2

L

O

G

03 Apr

Oviedo

H

1

0

W

U

N

31 Mar

Albacete

A

1

0

W

U

N

26 Mar

Espanol

H

1

3

L

O

G

21 Mar

Lugo

A

0

0

D

U

N

13 Mar

Sabadell

H

2

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Leganes

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Feb

Las Palmas

H

4

0

W

O

N


Mallorca in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Mallorca scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Mallorca in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Mallorca scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Mallorca’s performance as a guest.
Mallorca, as a guest, had 9 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 32 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Mallorca scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Mallorca was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Apr

Lugo

H

2

0

W

U

N

04 Apr

Las Palmas

A

1

1

D

U

G

01 Apr

Leganes

H

1

0

W

U

N

29 Mar

Fuenlabrada

A

1

4

L

O

G

20 Mar

Oviedo

H

0

0

D

U

N

14 Mar

Sp Gijon

A

0

2

L

U

N

07 Mar

Cartagena

H

2

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

Logrones

A

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Castellon is 0.133 and for the Mallorca is 0.008.
The home dynamic for the Castellon is -0.341 and the dynamic as a guest for the Mallorca is 0.697.
The offensive ability for the Castellon is 0.572 and for the Mallorca is 0.309.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Castellon is 0.015 and for the Mallorca is 0.217.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Castellon and the red line for guest team, Mallorca.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Castellon

30%

38%

23%

9%

Mallorca

32%

34%

24%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Castellon to score 0.76 goals and Mallorca to score 1.33 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.09 goals in the game and the guest team Mallorca to win by 0.57 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Castellon to score 1.11 goals and Mallorca to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.02 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.42

0-1

3.13

1

4.48

2-3

2.00

2

3.66

4+

5.52

3

4.39

Ov 1.5

1.47

4

8.00

Un 1.5

3.13

5

21.74

Ov 2.5

2.44

6+

100.00

Un 2.5

1.69

Gg

2.10

Ov 3.5

5.52

NoG

1.91

Un 3.5

1.22

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-