# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Fuenlabrada vs Sabadell at 16 April 2021**** Girona vs Zaragoza at 16 April 2021**** Sp Gijon vs Oviedo at 17 April 2021**** Castellon vs Mallorca at 17 April 2021**** Las Palmas vs Malaga at 17 April 2021**** Lugo vs Alcorcon at 17 April 2021**** Albacete vs Mirandes at 18 April 2021**** Cartagena vs Tenerife at 18 April 2021**** Logrones vs Vallecano at 18 April 2021**** Almeria vs Espanol at 19 April 2021**** Leganes vs Ponferradina at 19 April 2021**

###
Fuenlabrada vs Sabadell at 16 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Fuenlabrada** and **Sabadell** for **Segunda Division (Spain)**, which will take place on **16 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Fuenlabrada |
1.91 |
2.21 |
-7.1 |

Draw |
3.25 |
3.61 |
-3.1 |

Sabadell |
4.37 |
3.70 |
4.1 |

Over 2.5 |
2.42 |
2.33 |
1.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.57 |
1.75 |
-6.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Sabadell, Over 2.5 (4.1 %, 1.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Fuenlabrada** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Fuenlabrada scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Fuenlabrada** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Fuenlabrada** didn’t score to any of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Fuenlabrada’s performance** at home**.

Fuenlabrada,** at home**, had 3 wins, 10 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 37.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Fuenlabrada scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Fuenlabrada was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Apr |
Ponferradina |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
Zaragoza |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Apr |
Espanol |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

29 Mar |
Mallorca |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Leganes |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Las Palmas |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

08 Mar |
Lugo |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

28 Feb |
Girona |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Sabadell** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Sabadell** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sabadell** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Sabadell** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Sabadell’s performance** as a guest**.

Sabadell,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 35.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Sabadell scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sabadell was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

11 Apr |
Cartagena |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

04 Apr |
Leganes |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Mar |
Girona |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

28 Mar |
Lugo |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Sp Gijon |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Mar |
Castellon |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Mar |
Malaga |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Feb |
Albacete |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Fuenlabrada** is **-0.185** and for the **Sabadell** is **-0.246.**

The home dynamic for the **Fuenlabrada** is **-0.263** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Sabadell** is **0.028.**

The offensive ability for the **Fuenlabrada** is **-0.604** and for the **Sabadell** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Fuenlabrada** is **-0.311** and for the **Sabadell** is **-0.626.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Fuenlabrada** and the red line for guest team, **Sabadell. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Fuenlabrada |
24% |
35% |
25% |
15% |

Sabadell |
36% |
37% |
19% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Fuenlabrada** to score **1.36 ** goals and **Sabadell** to score **0.77 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.13** goals in the game and the home team **Fuenlabrada ** to win by **0.59** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Fuenlabrada** to score **1.32 ** goals and **Sabadell** to score **0.99 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.31** goals in the game and the home team **Fuenlabrada ** to win by **0.33** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.24 |
0-1 |
3.27 |

1 |
4.61 |
2-3 |
1.99 |

2 |
3.75 |
4+ |
5.15 |

3 |
4.24 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.43 |

4 |
7.52 |
Un 1.5 |
3.27 |

5 |
20.41 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.33 |

6+ |
83.33 |
Un 2.5 |
1.75 |

Gg |
2.07 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.15 |

NoG |
1.92 |
Un 3.5 |
1.24 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.43 |
3.44 |
3.36 |

2-3 goals |
2.08 |
3.90 |
3.81 |

4+ goals |
2.26 |
3.23 |
4.04 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.12 |
3.69 |
3.87 |

Un 1.5 |
2.43 |
3.44 |
3.36 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.82 |
7.17 |
3.21 |

Un 2.5 |
2.63 |
2.63 |
4.18 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.26 |
3.23 |
4.04 |

Un 3.5 |
2.20 |
3.71 |
3.63 |

Goal-Goal |
2.68 |
2.56 |
4.24 |

No Goal |
1.90 |
5.84 |
3.31 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.97 |
5.90 |
3.11 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.04 |
5.84 |
3.24 |

####
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###
Girona vs Zaragoza at 16 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Girona** and **Zaragoza** for **Segunda Division (Spain)**, which will take place on **16 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Girona |
2.22 |
2.04 |
4.0 |

Draw |
2.99 |
3.73 |
-6.6 |

Zaragoza |
3.59 |
4.12 |
-3.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.60 |
2.23 |
6.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.48 |
1.81 |
-12.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Girona, Over 2.5 (4 %, 6.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Girona** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Girona** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

More recently, **Girona** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Girona** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Girona’s performance** at home**.

Girona,** at home**, had 8 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 54.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Girona scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Girona was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Apr |
Vallecano |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Apr |
Ponferradina |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Mar |
Sabadell |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

28 Mar |
Albacete |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Mar |
Las Palmas |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Lugo |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Mar |
Almeria |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

28 Feb |
Fuenlabrada |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Zaragoza** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Zaragoza** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Zaragoza’s performance** as a guest**.

Zaragoza,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 19.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Zaragoza was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

11 Apr |
Almeria |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Fuenlabrada |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Apr |
Cartagena |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Logrones |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

22 Mar |
Mirandes |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

12 Mar |
Vallecano |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Tenerife |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Feb |
Oviedo |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Girona** is **0.296** and for the **Zaragoza** is **0.349.**

The home dynamic for the **Girona** is **-0.061** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Zaragoza** is **-0.57.**

The offensive ability for the **Girona** is **1** and for the **Zaragoza** is **0.578.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Girona** is **-1** and for the **Zaragoza** is **0.191.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Girona** and the red line for guest team, **Zaragoza. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Girona |
21% |
34% |
26% |
18% |

Zaragoza |
37% |
37% |
18% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Girona** to score **1.17 ** goals and **Zaragoza** to score **0.85 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.02** goals in the game and the home team **Girona ** to win by **0.32** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Girona** to score **1.41 ** goals and **Zaragoza** to score **0.96 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.37** goals in the game and the home team **Girona ** to win by **0.45** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.50 |
0-1 |
3.48 |

1 |
4.83 |
2-3 |
1.97 |

2 |
3.79 |
4+ |
4.83 |

3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
7.09 |
Un 1.5 |
3.48 |

5 |
18.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.22 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.81 |

Gg |
2.03 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.83 |

NoG |
1.97 |
Un 3.5 |
1.26 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.22 |
3.59 |
3.68 |

2-3 goals |
1.94 |
4.02 |
4.23 |

4+ goals |
2.09 |
3.34 |
4.50 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.98 |
3.80 |
4.30 |

Un 1.5 |
2.22 |
3.59 |
3.68 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.72 |
7.26 |
3.57 |

Un 2.5 |
2.43 |
2.67 |
4.67 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.09 |
3.34 |
4.50 |

Un 3.5 |
2.04 |
3.85 |
4.01 |

Goal-Goal |
2.53 |
2.62 |
4.48 |

No Goal |
1.73 |
6.35 |
3.79 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.88 |
5.92 |
3.34 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.87 |
6.35 |
3.60 |

####
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###
Sp Gijon vs Oviedo at 17 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Sp Gijon** and **Oviedo** for **Segunda Division (Spain)**, which will take place on **17 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Sp Gijon |
2.24 |
1.96 |
6.4 |

Draw |
2.94 |
3.82 |
-7.8 |

Oviedo |
3.56 |
4.39 |
-5.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.85 |
2.18 |
10.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.40 |
1.85 |
-17.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Sp Gijon, Over 2.5 (6.4 %, 10.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Sp Gijon** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Sp Gijon scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sp Gijon** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Sp Gijon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sp Gijon’s performance** at home**.

Sp Gijon,** at home**, had 9 wins, 7 draws, one defeat and gathered 34 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Sp Gijon scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sp Gijon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Apr |
Tenerife |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

04 Apr |
Mirandes |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Mar |
Vallecano |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Mar |
Alcorcon |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Sabadell |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Mar |
Mallorca |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Mar |
Ponferradina |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

28 Feb |
Espanol |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Oviedo** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Oviedo scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Oviedo** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Oviedo scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Oviedo’s performance** as a guest**.

Oviedo,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 9 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 35.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Oviedo scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Oviedo was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Apr |
Las Palmas |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

03 Apr |
Castellon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Mar |
Alcorcon |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Mar |
Ponferradina |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Mar |
Mallorca |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

14 Mar |
Leganes |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Mar |
Espanol |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Feb |
Zaragoza |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Sp Gijon** is **-0.074** and for the **Oviedo** is **-0.413.**

The home dynamic for the **Sp Gijon** is **0.542** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Oviedo** is **-0.084.**

The offensive ability for the **Sp Gijon** is **-0.037** and for the **Oviedo** is **-0.283.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Sp Gijon** is **-0.059** and for the **Oviedo** is **-0.191.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Sp Gijon** and the red line for guest team, **Oviedo. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Sp Gijon |
20% |
34% |
27% |
19% |

Oviedo |
38% |
36% |
18% |
7% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Sp Gijon** to score **1.09 ** goals and **Oviedo** to score **0.8 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **1.9** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.29** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Sp Gijon** to score **1.46 ** goals and **Oviedo** to score **0.94 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.4** goals in the game and the home team **Sp Gijon ** to win by **0.52** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.60 |

1 |
4.93 |
2-3 |
1.96 |

2 |
3.80 |
4+ |
4.72 |

3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
6.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.60 |

5 |
18.52 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.18 |

6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.85 |

Gg |
2.02 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.72 |

NoG |
1.98 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.12 |
3.71 |
3.86 |

2-3 goals |
1.87 |
4.07 |
4.54 |

4+ goals |
2.00 |
3.42 |
4.82 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.91 |
3.86 |
4.62 |

Un 1.5 |
2.12 |
3.71 |
3.86 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.66 |
7.39 |
3.82 |

Un 2.5 |
2.32 |
2.70 |
5.01 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.00 |
3.42 |
4.82 |

Un 3.5 |
1.95 |
3.93 |
4.28 |

Goal-Goal |
2.45 |
2.65 |
4.67 |

No Goal |
1.64 |
6.72 |
4.13 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.83 |
5.97 |
3.49 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.79 |
6.72 |
3.85 |

####
Go to Top

###
Castellon vs Mallorca at 17 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Castellon** and **Mallorca** for **Segunda Division (Spain)**, which will take place on **17 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Castellon |
4.53 |
2.84 |
13.1 |

Draw |
3.09 |
3.47 |
-3.5 |

Mallorca |
1.96 |
2.78 |
-15.0 |

Over 2.5 |
2.49 |
2.44 |
0.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.53 |
1.69 |
-6.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Castellon, Over 2.5 (13.1 %, 0.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Castellon** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Castellon scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Castellon** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Castellon** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Castellon’s performance** at home**.

Castellon,** at home**, had 8 wins, no draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 47.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Castellon scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Castellon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Apr |
Alcorcon |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Apr |
Oviedo |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Mar |
Albacete |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Mar |
Espanol |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Mar |
Lugo |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Sabadell |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Leganes |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Las Palmas |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

**Mallorca** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Mallorca scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Mallorca** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Mallorca** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Mallorca’s performance** as a guest**.

Mallorca,** as a guest**, had 9 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 32 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Mallorca scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Mallorca was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

11 Apr |
Lugo |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

04 Apr |
Las Palmas |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

01 Apr |
Leganes |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Mar |
Fuenlabrada |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Oviedo |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

14 Mar |
Sp Gijon |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Mar |
Cartagena |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Logrones |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Castellon** is **0.133** and for the **Mallorca** is **0.008.**

The home dynamic for the **Castellon** is **-0.341** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Mallorca** is **0.697.**

The offensive ability for the **Castellon** is **0.572** and for the **Mallorca** is **0.309.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Castellon** is **0.015** and for the **Mallorca** is **0.217.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Castellon** and the red line for guest team, **Mallorca. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Castellon |
30% |
38% |
23% |
9% |

Mallorca |
32% |
34% |
24% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Castellon** to score **0.76 ** goals and **Mallorca** to score **1.33 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.09** goals in the game and the guest team **Mallorca ** to win by **0.57** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Castellon** to score **1.11 ** goals and **Mallorca** to score **1.13 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.24** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.02** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.42 |
0-1 |
3.13 |

1 |
4.48 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
3.66 |
4+ |
5.52 |

3 |
4.39 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.47 |

4 |
8.00 |
Un 1.5 |
3.13 |

5 |
21.74 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.44 |

6+ |
100.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.69 |

Gg |
2.10 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.52 |

NoG |
1.91 |
Un 3.5 |
1.22 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |