# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Sassuolo vs Fiorentina at 17 April 2021**** Sampdoria vs Verona at 17 April 2021**** Crotone vs Udinese at 17 April 2021**** Cagliari vs Parma at 17 April 2021**** Lazio vs Benevento at 18 April 2021**** Torino vs Roma at 18 April 2021**** Atalanta vs Juventus at 18 April 2021**** Milan vs Genoa at 18 April 2021**** Bologna vs Spezia at 18 April 2021**** Napoli vs Inter at 18 April 2021**

###
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina at 17 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Sassuolo** and **Fiorentina** for **Serie A (Italy)**, which will take place on **17 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Sassuolo |
2.53 |
2.29 |
4.1 |

Draw |
3.23 |
3.62 |
-3.3 |

Fiorentina |
2.93 |
3.47 |
-5.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.78 |
2.19 |
-10.5 |

Under 2.5 |
2.07 |
1.84 |
6.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Sassuolo, Under 2.5 (4.1 %, 6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 6%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Sassuolo** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Sassuolo scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sassuolo** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Sassuolo** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sassuolo’s performance** at home**.

Sassuolo,** at home**, had 4 wins, 7 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 45.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Sassuolo scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sassuolo was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Apr |
Benevento |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Apr |
Inter |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Apr |
Roma |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

17 Mar |
Torino |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Verona |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Udinese |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Mar |
Napoli |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Bologna |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Fiorentina** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Fiorentina** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

More recently, **Fiorentina** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Fiorentina** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Fiorentina’s performance** as a guest**.

Fiorentina,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 23.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Fiorentina scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Fiorentina was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

11 Apr |
Atalanta |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Apr |
Genoa |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Mar |
Milan |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Benevento |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Mar |
Parma |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

03 Mar |
Roma |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Feb |
Udinese |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Feb |
Spezia |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

The form score for the **Sassuolo** is **-0.133** and for the **Fiorentina** is **-0.444.**

The home dynamic for the **Sassuolo** is **-0.218** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Fiorentina** is **-0.665.**

The offensive ability for the **Sassuolo** is **0.604** and for the **Fiorentina** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Sassuolo** is **-0.607** and for the **Fiorentina** is **-1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Sassuolo** and the red line for guest team, **Fiorentina. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Sassuolo |
28% |
25% |
32% |
15% |

Fiorentina |
44% |
16% |
31% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Sassuolo** to score **1.42 ** goals and **Fiorentina** to score **1.28 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.7** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.14** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Sassuolo** to score **1.34 ** goals and **Fiorentina** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.4** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.28** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
8.06 |
0-1 |
3.61 |

1 |
6.54 |
2-3 |
2.06 |

2 |
3.75 |
4+ |
4.22 |

3 |
4.57 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |

4 |
6.85 |
Un 1.5 |
3.61 |

5 |
12.99 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.19 |

6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.84 |

Gg |
2.48 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.22 |

NoG |
1.68 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.59 |
2.23 |
6.02 |

2-3 goals |
1.90 |
12.15 |
2.56 |

4+ goals |
3.34 |
2.10 |
4.47 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.21 |
4.73 |
2.98 |

Un 1.5 |
2.59 |
2.23 |
6.02 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.43 |
4.04 |
2.94 |

Un 2.5 |
2.21 |
3.32 |
4.06 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.34 |
2.10 |
4.47 |

Un 3.5 |
2.10 |
4.65 |
3.23 |

Goal-Goal |
3.31 |
2.64 |
3.13 |

No Goal |
1.91 |
4.81 |
3.73 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.98 |
3.22 |
2.82 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.05 |
4.81 |
3.76 |

####
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###
Sampdoria vs Verona at 17 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Sampdoria** and **Verona** for **Serie A (Italy)**, which will take place on **17 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Sampdoria |
2.59 |
2.57 |
0.3 |

Draw |
3.27 |
3.76 |
-4.0 |

Verona |
2.84 |
2.90 |
-0.7 |

Over 2.5 |
1.99 |
2.00 |
-0.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.86 |
2.00 |
-3.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Sampdoria (0.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 6%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Sampdoria** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Sampdoria scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sampdoria** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Sampdoria scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sampdoria’s performance** at home**.

Sampdoria,** at home**, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Sampdoria scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sampdoria was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

11 Apr |
Napoli |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Apr |
Milan |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Mar |
Torino |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

14 Mar |
Bologna |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Mar |
Cagliari |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

03 Mar |
Genoa |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Feb |
Atalanta |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Lazio |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Verona** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Verona scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Verona** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Verona scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Verona’s performance** as a guest**.

Verona,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Verona scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Verona was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

11 Apr |
Lazio |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Apr |
Cagliari |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Mar |
Atalanta |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Sassuolo |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Mar |
Milan |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Mar |
Benevento |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

27 Feb |
Juventus |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Feb |
Genoa |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Sampdoria** is **-0.185** and for the **Verona** is **-0.452.**

The home dynamic for the **Sampdoria** is **-0.274** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Verona** is **-0.131.**

The offensive ability for the **Sampdoria** is **0.433** and for the **Verona** is **-0.256.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Sampdoria** is **-0.652** and for the **Verona** is **-0.243.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Sampdoria** and the red line for guest team, **Verona. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Sampdoria |
29% |
25% |
31% |
14% |

Verona |
33% |
26% |
27% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Sampdoria** to score **1.28 ** goals and **Verona** to score **1.2 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.47** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.08** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Sampdoria** to score **1.31 ** goals and **Verona** to score **1.23 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.54** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.08** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.42 |
0-1 |
3.92 |

1 |
6.29 |
2-3 |
2.06 |

2 |
4.05 |
4+ |
3.83 |

3 |
4.20 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.37 |
Un 1.5 |
3.92 |

5 |
12.05 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |

6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
1.99 |

Gg |
2.10 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.83 |

NoG |
1.90 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.07 |
2.66 |
3.36 |

2-3 goals |
2.11 |
7.35 |
2.57 |

4+ goals |
3.39 |
2.51 |
3.26 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.43 |
4.39 |
2.77 |

Un 1.5 |
3.07 |
2.66 |
3.36 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.43 |
4.80 |
2.63 |

Un 2.5 |
2.71 |
3.10 |
3.24 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.39 |
2.51 |
3.26 |

Un 3.5 |
2.36 |
4.57 |
2.79 |

Goal-Goal |
3.01 |
2.80 |
3.22 |

No Goal |
2.26 |
5.47 |
2.66 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.59 |
3.94 |
2.77 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.36 |
5.47 |
2.81 |

####
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###
Crotone vs Udinese at 17 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Crotone** and **Udinese** for **Serie A (Italy)**, which will take place on **17 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Crotone |
4.13 |
2.79 |
11.6 |

Draw |
3.62 |
3.61 |
0.1 |

Udinese |
1.90 |
2.75 |
-16.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.82 |
1.96 |
-3.9 |

Under 2.5 |
2.02 |
2.04 |
-0.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Crotone, Draw (11.6 %, 0.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 6%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Crotone** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Crotone** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

More recently, **Crotone** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Crotone** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Crotone’s performance** at home**.

Crotone,** at home**, had 4 wins, one draw, 9 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 31.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Crotone scored in 9 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Crotone was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Apr |
Spezia |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Apr |
Napoli |
A |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Bologna |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Mar |
Lazio |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Mar |
Torino |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Mar |
Atalanta |
A |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Feb |
Cagliari |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

22 Feb |
Juventus |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

**Udinese** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Udinese scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Udinese** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Udinese scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Udinese’s performance** as a guest**.

Udinese,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 6 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Udinese scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Udinese was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Apr |
Torino |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Apr |
Atalanta |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Mar |
Lazio |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Genoa |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Mar |
Sassuolo |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Mar |
Milan |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Feb |
Fiorentina |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Feb |
Parma |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Crotone** is **-0.704** and for the **Udinese** is **-0.508.**

The home dynamic for the **Crotone** is **-0.832** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Udinese** is **-0.163.**

The offensive ability for the **Crotone** is **1** and for the **Udinese** is **0.103.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Crotone** is **-1** and for the **Udinese** is **-0.652.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Crotone** and the red line for guest team, **Udinese. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Crotone |
34% |
14% |
42% |
11% |

Udinese |
32% |
22% |
28% |
17% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Crotone** to score **0.96 ** goals and **Udinese** to score **1.68 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.65** goals in the game and the guest team **Udinese ** to win by **0.72** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Crotone** to score **1.29 ** goals and **Udinese** to score **1.31 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.6** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.02** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.09 |
0-1 |
4.39 |

1 |
8.47 |
2-3 |
2.06 |

2 |
3.82 |
4+ |
3.46 |

3 |
4.46 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.29 |

4 |
5.99 |
Un 1.5 |
4.39 |

5 |
9.71 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.95 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
2.04 |

Gg |
2.23 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.46 |

NoG |
1.81 |
Un 3.5 |
1.40 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
5.18 |
2.07 |
3.08 |

2-3 goals |
1.86 |
16.20 |
2.49 |

4+ goals |
5.25 |
2.09 |
3.01 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.45 |
4.61 |
2.66 |

Un 1.5 |
5.18 |
2.07 |
3.08 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.83 |
3.72 |
2.64 |

Un 2.5 |
2.74 |
3.50 |
2.87 |

Ov 3.5 |
5.25 |
2.09 |
3.01 |

Un 3.5 |
2.34 |
5.10 |
2.65 |

Goal-Goal |
3.08 |
2.67 |
3.33 |

No Goal |
2.59 |
5.04 |
2.41 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.87 |
3.04 |
3.10 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.57 |
5.04 |
2.69 |

####
Go to Top

###
Cagliari vs Parma at 17 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Cagliari** and **Parma** for **Serie A (Italy)**, which will take place on **17 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Cagliari |
2.23 |
2.39 |
-3.0 |

Draw |
3.44 |
3.72 |
-2.2 |

Parma |
3.29 |
3.21 |
0.8 |

Over 2.5 |
1.98 |
2.05 |
-1.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.86 |
1.95 |
-2.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Parma (0.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 6%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Cagliari** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Cagliari scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cagliari** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Cagliari scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cagliari’s performance** at home**.

Cagliari,** at home**, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 26.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Cagliari scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cagliari was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

11 Apr |
Inter |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Apr |
Verona |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Spezia |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Mar |
Juventus |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Mar |
Sampdoria |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

03 Mar |
Bologna |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Feb |
Crotone |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Feb |
Torino |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Parma** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Parma** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Parma** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Parma** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Parma’s performance** as a guest**.

Parma,** as a guest**, had one win, 6 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 21.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Parma scored in 11 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Parma was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Apr |
Milan |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Apr |
Benevento |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

19 Mar |
Genoa |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Mar |
Roma |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Mar |
Fiorentina |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

04 Mar |
Inter |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Spezia |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

21 Feb |
Udinese |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Cagliari** is **-0.578** and for the **Parma** is **-0.444.**

The home dynamic for the **Cagliari** is **-0.899** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Parma** is **-0.554.**

The offensive ability for the **Cagliari** is **-0.102** and for the **Parma** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Cagliari** is **-0.726** and for the **Parma** is **-0.626.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Cagliari** and the red line for guest team, **Parma. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Cagliari |
28% |
24% |
33% |
15% |

Parma |
37% |
23% |
28% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Cagliari** to score **1.41 ** goals and **Parma** to score **1.07 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.48** goals in the game and the home team **Cagliari ** to win by **0.34** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Cagliari** to score **1.35 ** goals and **Parma** to score **1.15 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.5** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.2** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.62 |
0-1 |
3.89 |

1 |
6.54 |
2-3 |
2.05 |

2 |
3.92 |
4+ |
3.92 |

3 |
4.31 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.45 |
Un 1.5 |
3.89 |

5 |
12.20 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.05 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.95 |

Gg |
2.21 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.92 |

NoG |
1.83 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |