2021 04 16 Serie A (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Sassuolo vs Fiorentina at 17 April 2021
Sampdoria vs Verona at 17 April 2021
Crotone vs Udinese at 17 April 2021
Cagliari vs Parma at 17 April 2021
Lazio vs Benevento at 18 April 2021
Torino vs Roma at 18 April 2021
Atalanta vs Juventus at 18 April 2021
Milan vs Genoa at 18 April 2021
Bologna vs Spezia at 18 April 2021
Napoli vs Inter at 18 April 2021


Sassuolo vs Fiorentina at 17 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sassuolo and Fiorentina for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 17 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sassuolo

2.53

2.29

4.1

Draw

3.23

3.62

-3.3

Fiorentina

2.93

3.47

-5.3

Over 2.5

1.78

2.19

-10.5

Under 2.5

2.07

1.84

6.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Sassuolo, Under 2.5 (4.1 %, 6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sassuolo in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Sassuolo scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sassuolo in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sassuolo scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sassuolo’s performance at home.
Sassuolo, at home, had 4 wins, 7 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 45.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Sassuolo scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sassuolo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Apr

Benevento

A

1

0

W

U

N

07 Apr

Inter

A

1

2

L

O

G

03 Apr

Roma

H

2

2

D

O

G

17 Mar

Torino

A

2

3

L

O

G

13 Mar

Verona

H

3

2

W

O

G

06 Mar

Udinese

A

0

2

L

U

N

03 Mar

Napoli

H

3

3

D

O

G

20 Feb

Bologna

H

1

1

D

U

G


Fiorentina in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Fiorentina scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Fiorentina in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Fiorentina scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Fiorentina’s performance as a guest.
Fiorentina, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 23.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Fiorentina scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Fiorentina was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Apr

Atalanta

H

2

3

L

O

G

03 Apr

Genoa

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Mar

Milan

H

2

3

L

O

G

13 Mar

Benevento

A

4

1

W

O

G

07 Mar

Parma

H

3

3

D

O

G

03 Mar

Roma

H

1

2

L

O

G

28 Feb

Udinese

A

0

1

L

U

N

19 Feb

Spezia

H

3

0

W

O

N


The form score for the Sassuolo is -0.133 and for the Fiorentina is -0.444.
The home dynamic for the Sassuolo is -0.218 and the dynamic as a guest for the Fiorentina is -0.665.
The offensive ability for the Sassuolo is 0.604 and for the Fiorentina is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Sassuolo is -0.607 and for the Fiorentina is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sassuolo and the red line for guest team, Fiorentina.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sassuolo

28%

25%

32%

15%

Fiorentina

44%

16%

31%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sassuolo to score 1.42 goals and Fiorentina to score 1.28 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.7 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.14 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sassuolo to score 1.34 goals and Fiorentina to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.28 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.06

0-1

3.61

1

6.54

2-3

2.06

2

3.75

4+

4.22

3

4.57

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.85

Un 1.5

3.61

5

12.99

Ov 2.5

2.19

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.84

Gg

2.48

Ov 3.5

4.22

NoG

1.68

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.59

2.23

6.02

2-3 goals

1.90

12.15

2.56

4+ goals

3.34

2.10

4.47

Ov 1.5

2.21

4.73

2.98

Un 1.5

2.59

2.23

6.02

Ov 2.5

2.43

4.04

2.94

Un 2.5

2.21

3.32

4.06

Ov 3.5

3.34

2.10

4.47

Un 3.5

2.10

4.65

3.23

Goal-Goal

3.31

2.64

3.13

No Goal

1.91

4.81

3.73

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.98

3.22

2.82

NG+Un 2.5

2.05

4.81

3.76


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Sampdoria vs Verona at 17 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sampdoria and Verona for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 17 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sampdoria

2.59

2.57

0.3

Draw

3.27

3.76

-4.0

Verona

2.84

2.90

-0.7

Over 2.5

1.99

2.00

-0.3

Under 2.5

1.86

2.00

-3.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Sampdoria (0.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sampdoria in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sampdoria scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sampdoria in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sampdoria scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sampdoria’s performance at home.
Sampdoria, at home, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sampdoria scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sampdoria was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Apr

Napoli

H

0

2

L

U

N

03 Apr

Milan

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Mar

Torino

H

1

0

W

U

N

14 Mar

Bologna

A

1

3

L

O

G

07 Mar

Cagliari

H

2

2

D

O

G

03 Mar

Genoa

A

1

1

D

U

G

28 Feb

Atalanta

H

0

2

L

U

N

20 Feb

Lazio

A

0

1

L

U

N


Verona in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Verona scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Verona in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Verona scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Verona’s performance as a guest.
Verona, as a guest, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Verona scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Verona was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Apr

Lazio

H

0

1

L

U

N

03 Apr

Cagliari

A

2

0

W

U

N

21 Mar

Atalanta

H

0

2

L

U

N

13 Mar

Sassuolo

A

2

3

L

O

G

07 Mar

Milan

H

0

2

L

U

N

03 Mar

Benevento

A

3

0

W

O

N

27 Feb

Juventus

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Genoa

A

2

2

D

O

G


The form score for the Sampdoria is -0.185 and for the Verona is -0.452.
The home dynamic for the Sampdoria is -0.274 and the dynamic as a guest for the Verona is -0.131.
The offensive ability for the Sampdoria is 0.433 and for the Verona is -0.256.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Sampdoria is -0.652 and for the Verona is -0.243.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sampdoria and the red line for guest team, Verona.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sampdoria

29%

25%

31%

14%

Verona

33%

26%

27%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sampdoria to score 1.28 goals and Verona to score 1.2 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sampdoria to score 1.31 goals and Verona to score 1.23 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.42

0-1

3.92

1

6.29

2-3

2.06

2

4.05

4+

3.83

3

4.20

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.37

Un 1.5

3.92

5

12.05

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

1.99

Gg

2.10

Ov 3.5

3.83

NoG

1.90

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.07

2.66

3.36

2-3 goals

2.11

7.35

2.57

4+ goals

3.39

2.51

3.26

Ov 1.5

2.43

4.39

2.77

Un 1.5

3.07

2.66

3.36

Ov 2.5

2.43

4.80

2.63

Un 2.5

2.71

3.10

3.24

Ov 3.5

3.39

2.51

3.26

Un 3.5

2.36

4.57

2.79

Goal-Goal

3.01

2.80

3.22

No Goal

2.26

5.47

2.66

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.59

3.94

2.77

NG+Un 2.5

2.36

5.47

2.81


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Crotone vs Udinese at 17 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Crotone and Udinese for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 17 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Crotone

4.13

2.79

11.6

Draw

3.62

3.61

0.1

Udinese

1.90

2.75

-16.3

Over 2.5

1.82

1.96

-3.9

Under 2.5

2.02

2.04

-0.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Crotone, Draw (11.6 %, 0.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Crotone in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Crotone scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Crotone in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Crotone scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Crotone’s performance at home.
Crotone, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, 9 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 31.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Crotone scored in 9 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crotone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Spezia

A

2

3

L

O

G

03 Apr

Napoli

A

3

4

L

O

G

20 Mar

Bologna

H

2

3

L

O

G

12 Mar

Lazio

A

2

3

L

O

G

07 Mar

Torino

H

4

2

W

O

G

03 Mar

Atalanta

A

1

5

L

O

G

28 Feb

Cagliari

H

0

2

L

U

N

22 Feb

Juventus

A

0

3

L

O

N


Udinese in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Udinese scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Udinese in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Udinese scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Udinese’s performance as a guest.
Udinese, as a guest, had 3 wins, 6 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Udinese scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Udinese was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Torino

H

0

1

L

U

N

03 Apr

Atalanta

A

2

3

L

O

G

21 Mar

Lazio

H

0

1

L

U

N

13 Mar

Genoa

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Mar

Sassuolo

H

2

0

W

U

N

03 Mar

Milan

A

1

1

D

U

G

28 Feb

Fiorentina

H

1

0

W

U

N

21 Feb

Parma

A

2

2

D

O

G


The form score for the Crotone is -0.704 and for the Udinese is -0.508.
The home dynamic for the Crotone is -0.832 and the dynamic as a guest for the Udinese is -0.163.
The offensive ability for the Crotone is 1 and for the Udinese is 0.103.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Crotone is -1 and for the Udinese is -0.652.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Crotone and the red line for guest team, Udinese.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Crotone

34%

14%

42%

11%

Udinese

32%

22%

28%

17%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Crotone to score 0.96 goals and Udinese to score 1.68 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.65 goals in the game and the guest team Udinese to win by 0.72 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Crotone to score 1.29 goals and Udinese to score 1.31 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.02 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.09

0-1

4.39

1

8.47

2-3

2.06

2

3.82

4+

3.46

3

4.46

Ov 1.5

1.29

4

5.99

Un 1.5

4.39

5

9.71

Ov 2.5

1.95

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

2.04

Gg

2.23

Ov 3.5

3.46

NoG

1.81

Un 3.5

1.40

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

5.18

2.07

3.08

2-3 goals

1.86

16.20

2.49

4+ goals

5.25

2.09

3.01

Ov 1.5

2.45

4.61

2.66

Un 1.5

5.18

2.07

3.08

Ov 2.5

2.83

3.72

2.64

Un 2.5

2.74

3.50

2.87

Ov 3.5

5.25

2.09

3.01

Un 3.5

2.34

5.10

2.65

Goal-Goal

3.08

2.67

3.33

No Goal

2.59

5.04

2.41

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.87

3.04

3.10

NG+Un 2.5

2.57

5.04

2.69


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Cagliari vs Parma at 17 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Cagliari and Parma for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 17 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Cagliari

2.23

2.39

-3.0

Draw

3.44

3.72

-2.2

Parma

3.29

3.21

0.8

Over 2.5

1.98

2.05

-1.7

Under 2.5

1.86

1.95

-2.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Parma (0.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Cagliari in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Cagliari scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cagliari in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Cagliari scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cagliari’s performance at home.
Cagliari, at home, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 26.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Cagliari scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cagliari was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Apr

Inter

A

0

1

L

U

N

03 Apr

Verona

H

0

2

L

U

N

20 Mar

Spezia

A

1

2

L

O

G

14 Mar

Juventus

H

1

3

L

O

G

07 Mar

Sampdoria

A

2

2

D

O

G

03 Mar

Bologna

H

1

0

W

U

N

28 Feb

Crotone

A

2

0

W

U

N

19 Feb

Torino

H

0

1

L

U

N


Parma in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Parma scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Parma in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Parma scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Parma’s performance as a guest.
Parma, as a guest, had one win, 6 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 21.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Parma scored in 11 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Parma was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Milan

H

1

3

L

O

G

03 Apr

Benevento

A

2

2

D

O

G

19 Mar

Genoa

H

1

2

L

O

G

14 Mar

Roma

H

2

0

W

U

N

07 Mar

Fiorentina

A

3

3

D

O

G

04 Mar

Inter

H

1

2

L

O

G

27 Feb

Spezia

A

2

2

D

O

G

21 Feb

Udinese

H

2

2

D

O

G


The form score for the Cagliari is -0.578 and for the Parma is -0.444.
The home dynamic for the Cagliari is -0.899 and the dynamic as a guest for the Parma is -0.554.
The offensive ability for the Cagliari is -0.102 and for the Parma is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Cagliari is -0.726 and for the Parma is -0.626.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Cagliari and the red line for guest team, Parma.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Cagliari

28%

24%

33%

15%

Parma

37%

23%

28%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cagliari to score 1.41 goals and Parma to score 1.07 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the home team Cagliari to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cagliari to score 1.35 goals and Parma to score 1.15 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.2 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.62

0-1

3.89

1

6.54

2-3

2.05

2

3.92

4+

3.92

3

4.31

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.45

Un 1.5

3.89

5

12.20

Ov 2.5

2.05

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.95

Gg

2.21

Ov 3.5

3.92

NoG

1.83

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at