2021 04 16 Serie B (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Spal vs Ascoli at 16 April 2021
Pisa vs Cosenza at 17 April 2021
Salernitana vs Venezia at 17 April 2021
Pordenone vs Frosinone at 17 April 2021
Monza vs Cremonese at 17 April 2021
Empoli vs Brescia at 17 April 2021
Cittadella vs Chievo at 17 April 2021
Pescara vs Virtus Entella at 17 April 2021
Reggina vs Reggiana at 17 April 2021


Spal vs Ascoli at 16 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Spal and Ascoli for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 16 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Spal

2.20

2.02

4.1

Draw

3.04

3.80

-6.6

Ascoli

3.52

4.17

-4.4

Over 2.5

2.29

2.22

1.4

Under 2.5

1.61

1.82

-7.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Spal, Over 2.5 (4.1 %, 1.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Spal in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Spal scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Spal in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Spal scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Spal’s performance at home.
Spal, at home, had 7 wins, 6 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 56.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Spal scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Spal was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Lecce

A

2

1

W

O

G

05 Apr

Venezia

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Apr

Chievo

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Mar

Cittadella

H

1

0

W

U

N

15 Mar

Pisa

A

0

3

L

O

N

12 Mar

Virtus Entella

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Pescara

A

1

0

W

U

N

02 Mar

Salernitana

A

0

0

D

U

N


Ascoli in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Ascoli scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ascoli in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Ascoli scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ascoli’s performance as a guest.
Ascoli, as a guest, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 22.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Ascoli scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ascoli was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Monza

H

1

0

W

U

N

05 Apr

Vicenza

H

2

1

W

O

G

02 Apr

Cosenza

A

1

2

L

O

G

19 Mar

Cremonese

H

0

0

D

U

N

16 Mar

Pescara

A

3

2

W

O

G

13 Mar

Venezia

H

1

1

D

U

G

06 Mar

Virtus Entella

A

0

0

D

U

N

02 Mar

Pisa

H

0

2

L

U

N


The form score for the Spal is 0.207 and for the Ascoli is 0.31.
The home dynamic for the Spal is 0.184 and the dynamic as a guest for the Ascoli is -0.546.
The offensive ability for the Spal is 0.176 and for the Ascoli is 0.614.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Spal is -0.407 and for the Ascoli is -0.157.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Spal and the red line for guest team, Ascoli.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Spal

19%

40%

21%

20%

Ascoli

40%

33%

18%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Spal to score 1.28 goals and Ascoli to score 0.93 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.2 goals in the game and the home team Spal to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Spal to score 1.42 goals and Ascoli to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the home team Spal to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

3.33

1

4.50

2-3

2.04

2

3.98

4+

4.72

3

4.20

Ov 1.5

1.43

4

7.19

Un 1.5

3.33

5

18.18

Ov 2.5

2.22

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.81

Gg

2.07

Ov 3.5

4.72

NoG

1.93

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.89

3.85

4.76

2-3 goals

2.07

3.76

3.98

4+ goals

2.10

3.72

3.93

Ov 1.5

2.08

3.75

3.96

Un 1.5

1.89

3.85

4.76

Ov 2.5

1.79

7.89

3.17

Un 2.5

2.25

2.65

5.62

Ov 3.5

2.10

3.72

3.93

Un 3.5

2.00

3.79

4.24

Goal-Goal

2.82

2.58

3.86

No Goal

1.59

6.64

4.50

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.06

6.19

2.82

NG+Un 2.5

1.72

6.64

4.30


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Pisa vs Cosenza at 17 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Pisa and Cosenza for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 17 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Pisa

2.05

2.25

-4.3

Draw

3.13

3.53

-3.6

Cosenza

3.84

3.68

1.1

Over 2.5

1.89

2.35

-10.4

Under 2.5

1.92

1.74

5.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Cosenza, Under 2.5 (1.1 %, 5.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Pisa in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Pisa scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pisa in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Pisa scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pisa’s performance at home.
Pisa, at home, had 5 wins, 9 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Pisa scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pisa was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Apr

Chievo

A

0

2

L

U

N

05 Apr

Lecce

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Apr

Pescara

A

1

3

L

O

G

15 Mar

Spal

H

3

0

W

O

N

12 Mar

Cittadella

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Mar

Reggina

H

0

0

D

U

N

02 Mar

Ascoli

A

2

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Vicenza

H

2

2

D

O

G


Cosenza in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Cosenza scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cosenza in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Cosenza scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cosenza’s performance as a guest.
Cosenza, as a guest, had 3 wins, 8 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 35.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Cosenza scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cosenza was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Apr

Venezia

A

0

3

L

O

N

05 Apr

Cremonese

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Apr

Ascoli

H

2

1

W

O

G

20 Mar

Reggiana

A

1

1

D

U

G

16 Mar

Vicenza

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Salernitana

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Frosinone

H

1

2

L

O

G

02 Mar

Brescia

A

0

2

L

U

N


The form score for the Pisa is -0.541 and for the Cosenza is -0.294.
The home dynamic for the Pisa is 0.196 and the dynamic as a guest for the Cosenza is -0.004.
The offensive ability for the Pisa is -0.925 and for the Cosenza is -0.256.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Pisa is -0.407 and for the Cosenza is -0.678.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Pisa and the red line for guest team, Cosenza.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Pisa

23%

39%

22%

16%

Cosenza

35%

38%

18%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Pisa to score 1.55 goals and Cosenza to score 1.01 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and the home team Pisa to win by 0.54 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Pisa to score 1.31 goals and Cosenza to score 1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and the home team Pisa to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.28

1

4.44

2-3

2.00

2

3.72

4+

5.10

3

4.35

Ov 1.5

1.44

4

7.46

Un 1.5

3.28

5

20.83

Ov 2.5

2.35

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.74

Gg

2.00

Ov 3.5

5.10

NoG

2.00

Un 3.5

1.24

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.19

3.81

3.55

2-3 goals

2.29

3.35

3.78

4+ goals

2.25

3.63

3.56

Ov 1.5

2.28

3.42

3.72

Un 1.5

2.19

3.81

3.55

Ov 2.5

1.88

7.89

2.92

Un 2.5

2.63

2.51

4.52

Ov 3.5

2.25

3.63

3.56

Un 3.5

2.25

3.51

3.69

Goal-Goal

2.92

2.46

3.97

No Goal

1.83

6.25

3.40

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.05

6.50

2.79

NG+Un 2.5

1.95

6.25

3.35


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Salernitana vs Venezia at 17 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Salernitana and Venezia for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 17 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Salernitana

2.78

2.36

6.4

Draw

2.91

3.44

-5.3

Venezia

2.68

3.50

-8.7

Over 2.5

2.30

2.41

-2.0

Under 2.5

1.59

1.71

-4.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Salernitana (6.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Salernitana in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Salernitana scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Salernitana in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Salernitana scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Salernitana’s performance at home.
Salernitana, at home, had 9 wins, 6 draws, one defeat and gathered 33 points, 68.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Salernitana scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Salernitana was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Virtus Entella

A

3

0

W

O

N

05 Apr

Frosinone

H

1

0

W

U

N

02 Apr

Lecce

A

0

2

L

U

N

21 Mar

Brescia

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Mar

Cittadella

A

0

0

D

U

N

13 Mar

Cosenza

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Cremonese

A

1

0

W

U

N

02 Mar

Spal

H

0

0

D

U

N


Venezia in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Venezia in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Venezia’s performance as a guest.
Venezia, as a guest, had 5 wins, 9 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Venezia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Apr

Cosenza

H

3

0

W

O

N

05 Apr

Spal

A

1

1

D

U

G

02 Apr

Reggina

H

0

2

L

U

N

20 Mar

Monza

A

4

1

W

O

G

16 Mar

Lecce

H

2

3

L

O

G

13 Mar

Ascoli

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Mar

Brescia

H

0

1

L

U

N

01 Mar

Reggiana

H

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Salernitana is 0.37 and for the Venezia is -0.032.
The home dynamic for the Salernitana is 0.453 and the dynamic as a guest for the Venezia is 0.211.
The offensive ability for the Salernitana is -0.316 and for the Venezia is 0.578.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Salernitana is 0.652 and for the Venezia is -0.539.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Salernitana and the red line for guest team, Venezia.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Salernitana

24%

40%

22%

14%

Venezia

33%

40%

18%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Salernitana to score 1.08 goals and Venezia to score 1.11 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.19 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.03 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Salernitana to score 1.26 goals and Venezia to score 1.02 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.28 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.24 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.24

1

4.37

2-3

1.99

2

3.64

4+

5.38

3

4.39

Ov 1.5

1.45

4

7.69

Un 1.5

3.24

5

22.73

Ov 2.5

2.42

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

1.71

Gg

1.98

Ov 3.5

5.38

NoG

2.03

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.32

3.86

3.22

2-3 goals

2.42

3.16

3.70

4+ goals

2.30

3.65

3.44

Ov 1.5

2.38

3.28

3.63

Un 1.5

2.32

3.86

3.22

Ov 2.5

1.92

8.12

2.82

Un 2.5

2.83

2.44

4.20

Ov 3.5

2.30

3.65

3.44

Un 3.5

2.38

3.40

3.50

Goal-Goal

2.99

2.40

4.01

No Goal

1.95

6.16

3.08

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.05

6.78

2.75

NG+Un 2.5

2.06

6.16

3.06


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Pordenone vs Frosinone at 17 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Pordenone and Frosinone for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 17 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Pordenone

2.72

2.17

9.3

Draw

2.78

3.58

-8.0

Frosinone

2.92

3.85

-8.3

Over 2.5

2.38

2.32

1.1

Under 2.5

1.57

1.76

-6.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Pordenone, Over 2.5 (9.3 %, 1.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Pordenone in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Pordenone scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pordenone in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Pordenone scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pordenone’s performance at home.
Pordenone, at home, had 3 wins, 9 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 40.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Pordenone scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pordenone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Cremonese

A

1

2

L

O

G

05 Apr

Virtus Entella

H

3

0

W

O

N

02 Apr

Brescia

A

1

4

L

O

G

16 Mar

Empoli

A

0

1

L

U

N

13 Mar

Pescara

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Monza

A

0

2

L

U

N

02 Mar

Chievo

A

0

3

L

O

N

27 Feb

Ascoli

H

1

1

D

U

G


Frosinone in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Frosinone scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Frosinone in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Frosinone scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Frosinone’s performance as a guest.
Frosinone, as a guest, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 47.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Frosinone scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Frosinone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Cittadella

H

1

1

D

U

G

05 Apr

Salernitana

A

0

1

L

U

N

02 Apr

Reggiana

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Mar

Lecce

H

0

3

L

O

N

16 Mar

Chievo

A

0

0

D

U

N

13 Mar

Brescia

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Mar

Cosenza

A

2

1

W

O

G

02 Mar

Monza

H

2

2

D

O

G


The form score for the Pordenone is -0.481 and for the Frosinone is -0.587.
The home dynamic for the Pordenone is -0.341 and the dynamic as a guest for the Frosinone is 0.131.
The offensive ability for the Pordenone is -0.283 and for the Frosinone is -0.946.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Pordenone is -0.333 and for the Frosinone is -0.243.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Pordenone and the red line for guest team, Frosinone.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Pordenone

23%

36%

25%

16%

Frosinone

35%

39%

17%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Pordenone to score 1.1 goals and Frosinone to score 1.05 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.15 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Pordenone to score 1.34 goals and Frosinone to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and the home team Pordenone to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.37

1

4.61

2-3

1.98

2

3.69

4+

5.15

3

4.26

Ov 1.5

1.43

4

7.46

Un 1.5

3.37

5

21.28

Ov 2.5

2.33

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.76

Gg

2.01

Ov 3.5

5.15

NoG

2.00

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-