2021 04 16 Super League (Greece)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Panetolikos vs Apollon at 17 April 2021
Volos NFC vs Giannina at 17 April 2021
OFI Crete vs Atromitos at 17 April 2021
Panathinaikos vs Aris at 18 April 2021
AEK vs Asteras Tripolis at 18 April 2021
Lamia vs Larisa at 19 April 2021


Panetolikos vs Apollon at 17 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Panetolikos and Apollon for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 17 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Panetolikos

2.37

2.33

0.7

Draw

2.88

3.50

-6.2

Apollon

3.20

3.51

-2.8

Over 2.5

2.48

2.76

-4.1

Under 2.5

1.51

1.57

-2.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Panetolikos (0.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Panetolikos in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Panetolikos in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Panetolikos’s performance at home.
Panetolikos, at home, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 35.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Panetolikos was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Volos NFC

A

1

3

L

O

G

03 Apr

Larisa

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Mar

Lamia

H

0

3

L

O

N

14 Mar

Apollon

A

0

1

L

U

N

07 Mar

Volos NFC

H

1

0

W

U

N

28 Feb

Larisa

A

0

1

L

U

N

22 Feb

Panathinaikos

H

1

0

W

U

N

14 Feb

Aris

A

0

0

D

U

N


Apollon in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Apollon in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Apollon’s performance as a guest.
Apollon, as a guest, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 38.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Apollon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

OFI Crete

H

0

0

D

U

N

03 Apr

Atromitos

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Mar

Larisa

H

0

2

L

U

N

14 Mar

Panetolikos

H

1

0

W

U

N

08 Mar

AEK

A

0

2

L

U

N

27 Feb

OFI Crete

H

2

1

W

O

G

21 Feb

Volos NFC

A

0

2

L

U

N

18 Feb

Lamia

H

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Panetolikos is -0.519 and for the Apollon is -0.095.
The home dynamic for the Panetolikos is -0.486 and the dynamic as a guest for the Apollon is -0.044.
The offensive ability for the Panetolikos is -0.358 and for the Apollon is -0.256.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Panetolikos is -0.704 and for the Apollon is -0.157.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Panetolikos and the red line for guest team, Apollon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Panetolikos

31%

32%

28%

10%

Apollon

43%

33%

13%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Panetolikos to score 1.14 goals and Apollon to score 0.93 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.07 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Panetolikos to score 1.15 goals and Apollon to score 0.92 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.07 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

7.46

0-1

2.67

1

4.17

2-3

2.12

2

3.79

4+

6.49

3

4.81

Ov 1.5

1.60

4

9.80

Un 1.5

2.67

5

23.81

Ov 2.5

2.76

6+

100.00

Un 2.5

1.57

Gg

2.54

Ov 3.5

6.49

NoG

1.65

Un 3.5

1.18

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.77

2.79

3.56

2-3 goals

1.89

4.45

4.07

4+ goals

3.42

3.35

2.44

Ov 1.5

2.12

4.12

3.50

Un 1.5

2.77

2.79

3.56

Ov 2.5

2.03

7.87

2.62

Un 2.5

2.53

2.66

4.37

Ov 3.5

3.42

3.35

2.44

Un 3.5

2.20

3.53

3.83

Goal-Goal

2.88

2.59

3.75

No Goal

2.07

4.52

3.39

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.10

6.26

2.74

NG+Un 2.5

2.11

4.52

3.64


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Volos NFC vs Giannina at 17 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Volos NFC and Giannina for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 17 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Volos NFC

2.79

2.53

3.7

Draw

2.86

3.57

-7.0

Giannina

2.78

3.09

-3.6

Over 2.5

2.34

2.44

-1.8

Under 2.5

1.59

1.69

-3.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Volos NFC (3.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 13%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Volos NFC in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Volos NFC scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Volos NFC in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Volos NFC scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Volos NFC’s performance at home.
Volos NFC, at home, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Volos NFC scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Volos NFC was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Panetolikos

H

3

1

W

O

G

03 Apr

Lamia

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Mar

OFI Crete

H

0

0

D

U

N

14 Mar

AEK

H

1

0

W

U

N

07 Mar

Panetolikos

A

0

1

L

U

N

01 Mar

Olympiakos

H

1

2

L

O

G

21 Feb

Apollon

H

2

0

W

U

N

14 Feb

OFI Crete

A

2

1

W

O

G


Giannina in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Giannina scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Giannina in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Giannina scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Giannina’s performance as a guest.
Giannina, as a guest, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 42.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Giannina scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Giannina was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Apr

Lamia

H

1

2

L

O

G

03 Apr

OFI Crete

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Mar

Atromitos

H

1

0

W

U

N

14 Mar

Asteras Tripolis

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Mar

Panathinaikos

H

1

0

W

U

N

28 Feb

Lamia

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Feb

OFI Crete

H

1

0

W

U

N

15 Feb

PAOK

H

0

2

L

U

N


The form score for the Volos NFC is 0.074 and for the Giannina is 0.032.
The home dynamic for the Volos NFC is -0.441 and the dynamic as a guest for the Giannina is -0.06.
The offensive ability for the Volos NFC is 0.07 and for the Giannina is 0.668.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Volos NFC is -0.333 and for the Giannina is 0.452.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Volos NFC and the red line for guest team, Giannina.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Volos NFC

34%

28%

24%

14%

Giannina

37%

33%

20%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Volos NFC to score 1.09 goals and Giannina to score 1.09 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.17 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Volos NFC to score 1.18 goals and Giannina to score 1.03 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.21 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.15 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.06

0-1

2.93

1

4.61

2-3

2.13

2

4.02

4+

5.29

3

4.52

Ov 1.5

1.52

4

8.13

Un 1.5

2.93

5

19.23

Ov 2.5

2.44

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.69

Gg

2.39

Ov 3.5

5.29

NoG

1.72

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.31

2.75

2.99

2-3 goals

2.17

5.00

2.96

4+ goals

2.49

3.05

3.71

Ov 1.5

2.25

4.22

3.14

Un 1.5

3.31

2.75

2.99

Ov 2.5

1.98

6.61

2.91

Un 2.5

3.12

2.71

3.22

Ov 3.5

2.49

3.05

3.71

Un 3.5

2.53

3.72

2.97

Goal-Goal

2.70

2.69

3.88

No Goal

2.41

4.69

2.69

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.10

5.24

3.01

NG+Un 2.5

2.62

4.69

2.71


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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OFI Crete vs Atromitos at 17 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between OFI Crete and Atromitos for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 17 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

OFI Crete

1.96

2.54

-11.7

Draw

3.59

3.42

1.4

Atromitos

3.56

3.18

3.4

Over 2.5

2.24

2.73

-8.0

Under 2.5

1.63

1.58

1.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Atromitos, Under 2.5 (1.4 %, 3.4 %, 1.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 13%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

OFI Crete in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, OFI Crete scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, OFI Crete in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, OFI Crete scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at OFI Crete’s performance at home.
OFI Crete, at home, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 28.6% of the total available.
In these matches, OFI Crete scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of OFI Crete was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Apollon

A

0

0

D

U

N

03 Apr

Giannina

H

2

1

W

O

G

20 Mar

Volos NFC

A

0

0

D

U

N

14 Mar

Aris

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Mar

Larisa

H

2

3

L

O

G

27 Feb

Apollon

A

1

2

L

O

G

21 Feb

Giannina

A

0

1

L

U

N

14 Feb

Volos NFC

H

1

2

L

O

G


Atromitos in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Atromitos scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Atromitos in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Atromitos scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Atromitos’s performance as a guest.
Atromitos, as a guest, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 26.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Atromitos scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Atromitos was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Larisa

H

0

1

L

U

N

03 Apr

Apollon

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Mar

Giannina

A

0

1

L

U

N

14 Mar

Lamia

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Asteras Tripolis

H

1

1

D

U

G

28 Feb

Aris

A

0

3

L

O

N

20 Feb

Larisa

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Feb

Apollon

A

1

2

L

O

G


The form score for the OFI Crete is -0.259 and for the Atromitos is -0.611.
The home dynamic for the OFI Crete is -0.944 and the dynamic as a guest for the Atromitos is -0.41.
The offensive ability for the OFI Crete is -0.529 and for the Atromitos is -0.614.
Finally, the defensive ability for the OFI Crete is -0.259 and for the Atromitos is -0.626.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, OFI Crete and the red line for guest team, Atromitos.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

OFI Crete

35%

30%

24%

11%

Atromitos

40%

34%

18%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) OFI Crete to score 1.36 goals and Atromitos to score 0.88 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.23 goals in the game and the home team OFI Crete to win by 0.48 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) OFI Crete to score 1.11 goals and Atromitos to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.07 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.15 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

7.14

0-1

2.65

1

4.22

2-3

2.15

2

3.88

4+

6.37

3

4.81

Ov 1.5

1.61

4

9.43

Un 1.5

2.65

5

24.39

Ov 2.5

2.74

6+

100.00

Un 2.5

1.57

Gg

2.57

Ov 3.5

6.37

NoG

1.64

Un 3.5

1.19

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.17

2.69

3.19

2-3 goals

2.12

4.66

3.19

4+ goals

2.80

3.02

3.20

Ov 1.5

2.26

4.10

3.19

Un 1.5

3.17

2.69

3.19

Ov 2.5

2.03

7.02

2.74

Un 2.5

2.95

2.65

3.53

Ov 3.5

2.80

3.02

3.20

Un 3.5

2.49

3.51

3.19

Goal-Goal

2.86

2.56

3.85

No Goal

2.36

4.36

2.88

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.13

5.56

2.86

NG+Un 2.5

2.49

4.36

2.97


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Panathinaikos vs Aris at 18 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Panathinaikos and Aris for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 18 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Panathinaikos

2.49

2.07

8.1

Draw

3.02

3.68

-5.9

Aris

2.80

4.08

-11.2

Over 2.5

2.43

2.52

-1.5

Under 2.5

1.52

1.66

-5.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Panathinaikos (8.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 13%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Panathinaikos in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Panathinaikos in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Panathinaikos’s performance at home.
Panathinaikos, at home, had 8 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Panathinaikos was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Apr

Olympiakos

A

1

3

L

O

G

04 Apr

PAOK

H

3

0

W

O

N

21 Mar

Asteras Tripolis

A

2

2

D

O

G

14 Mar

PAOK

H

2

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Giannina

A

0

1

L

U

N

28 Feb

AEK

H

1

1

D

U

G

22 Feb

Panetolikos

A

0

1

L

U

N

14 Feb

Olympiakos

H

2

1

W

O

G


Aris in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Aris scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Aris in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Aris scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Aris’s performance as a guest.
Aris, as a guest, had 7 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 59.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Aris scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Aris was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Apr

AEK

H

1

3

L

O

G

04 Apr

Asteras Tripolis

H

2

0

W

U

N

21 Mar

Olympiakos

A

0

1

L

U

N

14 Mar

OFI Crete

H

1

0

W

U

N

07 Mar

PAOK

A

2

2

D

O

G

28 Feb

Atromitos

H

3

0

W

O

N

21 Feb

Olympiakos

A

1

1

D

U

G

14 Feb

Panetolikos

H

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Panathinaikos is 0 and for the Aris is 0.048.
The home dynamic for the Panathinaikos is 0.441 and the dynamic as a guest for the Aris is 0.394.
The offensive ability for the Panathinaikos is 0.572 and for the Aris is 0.578.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Panathinaikos is -0.63 and for the Aris is 0.13.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Panathinaikos and the red line for guest team, Aris.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Panathinaikos

26%

34%

24%

16%

Aris

45%

33%

10%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Panathinaikos to score 1.09 goals and Aris to score 1.01 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.1 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Panathinaikos to score 1.3 goals and Aris to score 0.88 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.18 goals in the game and the home team Panathinaikos to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.55

0-1

2.81

1

4.18

2-3

2.16

2

4.07

4+

5.52

3

4.61

Ov 1.5

1.55

4

8.55

Un 1.5

2.81

5

22.22

Ov 2.5

2.51

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.66

Gg

2.45

Ov 3.5

5.52

NoG

1.69

Un 3.5

1.22

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.34

3.04

4.09