# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Panetolikos vs Apollon at 17 April 2021**** Volos NFC vs Giannina at 17 April 2021**** OFI Crete vs Atromitos at 17 April 2021**** Panathinaikos vs Aris at 18 April 2021**** AEK vs Asteras Tripolis at 18 April 2021**** Lamia vs Larisa at 19 April 2021**

###
Panetolikos vs Apollon at 17 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Panetolikos** and **Apollon** for **Super League (Greece)**, which will take place on **17 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Panetolikos |
2.37 |
2.33 |
0.7 |

Draw |
2.88 |
3.50 |
-6.2 |

Apollon |
3.20 |
3.51 |
-2.8 |

Over 2.5 |
2.48 |
2.76 |
-4.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.51 |
1.57 |
-2.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Panetolikos (0.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Panetolikos** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Panetolikos** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Panetolikos’s performance** at home**.

Panetolikos,** at home**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 35.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Panetolikos was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Apr |
Volos NFC |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Apr |
Larisa |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Mar |
Lamia |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

14 Mar |
Apollon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Mar |
Volos NFC |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Feb |
Larisa |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

22 Feb |
Panathinaikos |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Aris |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Apollon** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Apollon scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Apollon** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Apollon scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Apollon’s performance** as a guest**.

Apollon,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 38.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Apollon scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Apollon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Apr |
OFI Crete |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

03 Apr |
Atromitos |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Mar |
Larisa |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Mar |
Panetolikos |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

08 Mar |
AEK |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
OFI Crete |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Feb |
Volos NFC |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

18 Feb |
Lamia |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Panetolikos** is **-0.519** and for the **Apollon** is **-0.095.**

The home dynamic for the **Panetolikos** is **-0.486** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Apollon** is **-0.044.**

The offensive ability for the **Panetolikos** is **-0.358** and for the **Apollon** is **-0.256.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Panetolikos** is **-0.704** and for the **Apollon** is **-0.157.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Panetolikos** and the red line for guest team, **Apollon. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Panetolikos |
31% |
32% |
28% |
10% |

Apollon |
43% |
33% |
13% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Panetolikos** to score **1.14 ** goals and **Apollon** to score **0.93 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.07** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.21** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Panetolikos** to score **1.15 ** goals and **Apollon** to score **0.92 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.07** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.23** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
7.46 |
0-1 |
2.67 |

1 |
4.17 |
2-3 |
2.12 |

2 |
3.79 |
4+ |
6.49 |

3 |
4.81 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.60 |

4 |
9.80 |
Un 1.5 |
2.67 |

5 |
23.81 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.76 |

6+ |
100.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.57 |

Gg |
2.54 |
Ov 3.5 |
6.49 |

NoG |
1.65 |
Un 3.5 |
1.18 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.77 |
2.79 |
3.56 |

2-3 goals |
1.89 |
4.45 |
4.07 |

4+ goals |
3.42 |
3.35 |
2.44 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.12 |
4.12 |
3.50 |

Un 1.5 |
2.77 |
2.79 |
3.56 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.03 |
7.87 |
2.62 |

Un 2.5 |
2.53 |
2.66 |
4.37 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.42 |
3.35 |
2.44 |

Un 3.5 |
2.20 |
3.53 |
3.83 |

Goal-Goal |
2.88 |
2.59 |
3.75 |

No Goal |
2.07 |
4.52 |
3.39 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.10 |
6.26 |
2.74 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.11 |
4.52 |
3.64 |

####
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###
Volos NFC vs Giannina at 17 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Volos NFC** and **Giannina** for **Super League (Greece)**, which will take place on **17 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Volos NFC |
2.79 |
2.53 |
3.7 |

Draw |
2.86 |
3.57 |
-7.0 |

Giannina |
2.78 |
3.09 |
-3.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.34 |
2.44 |
-1.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.59 |
1.69 |
-3.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Volos NFC (3.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 13%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Volos NFC** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Volos NFC scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Volos NFC** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Volos NFC scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Volos NFC’s performance** at home**.

Volos NFC,** at home**, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Volos NFC scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Volos NFC was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Apr |
Panetolikos |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Apr |
Lamia |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Mar |
OFI Crete |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

14 Mar |
AEK |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Mar |
Panetolikos |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Mar |
Olympiakos |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Feb |
Apollon |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
OFI Crete |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Giannina** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Giannina scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Giannina** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Giannina** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Giannina’s performance** as a guest**.

Giannina,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 42.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Giannina scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Giannina was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Apr |
Lamia |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Apr |
OFI Crete |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Atromitos |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

14 Mar |
Asteras Tripolis |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Panathinaikos |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Feb |
Lamia |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Feb |
OFI Crete |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

15 Feb |
PAOK |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Volos NFC** is **0.074** and for the **Giannina** is **0.032.**

The home dynamic for the **Volos NFC** is **-0.441** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Giannina** is **-0.06.**

The offensive ability for the **Volos NFC** is **0.07** and for the **Giannina** is **0.668.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Volos NFC** is **-0.333** and for the **Giannina** is **0.452.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Volos NFC** and the red line for guest team, **Giannina. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Volos NFC |
34% |
28% |
24% |
14% |

Giannina |
37% |
33% |
20% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Volos NFC** to score **1.09 ** goals and **Giannina** to score **1.09 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.17** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Volos NFC** to score **1.18 ** goals and **Giannina** to score **1.03 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.21** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.15** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
8.06 |
0-1 |
2.93 |

1 |
4.61 |
2-3 |
2.13 |

2 |
4.02 |
4+ |
5.29 |

3 |
4.52 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.52 |

4 |
8.13 |
Un 1.5 |
2.93 |

5 |
19.23 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.44 |

6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.69 |

Gg |
2.39 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.29 |

NoG |
1.72 |
Un 3.5 |
1.23 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.31 |
2.75 |
2.99 |

2-3 goals |
2.17 |
5.00 |
2.96 |

4+ goals |
2.49 |
3.05 |
3.71 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.25 |
4.22 |
3.14 |

Un 1.5 |
3.31 |
2.75 |
2.99 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |
6.61 |
2.91 |

Un 2.5 |
3.12 |
2.71 |
3.22 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.49 |
3.05 |
3.71 |

Un 3.5 |
2.53 |
3.72 |
2.97 |

Goal-Goal |
2.70 |
2.69 |
3.88 |

No Goal |
2.41 |
4.69 |
2.69 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.10 |
5.24 |
3.01 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.62 |
4.69 |
2.71 |

####
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###
OFI Crete vs Atromitos at 17 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **OFI Crete** and **Atromitos** for **Super League (Greece)**, which will take place on **17 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

OFI Crete |
1.96 |
2.54 |
-11.7 |

Draw |
3.59 |
3.42 |
1.4 |

Atromitos |
3.56 |
3.18 |
3.4 |

Over 2.5 |
2.24 |
2.73 |
-8.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.63 |
1.58 |
1.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Atromitos, Under 2.5 (1.4 %, 3.4 %, 1.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 13%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**OFI Crete** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, OFI Crete scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **OFI Crete** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, OFI Crete scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at OFI Crete’s performance** at home**.

OFI Crete,** at home**, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 28.6% of the total available.

In these matches, OFI Crete scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of OFI Crete was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Apr |
Apollon |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

03 Apr |
Giannina |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Volos NFC |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

14 Mar |
Aris |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Larisa |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Apollon |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Feb |
Giannina |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Volos NFC |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Atromitos** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Atromitos scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Atromitos** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Atromitos scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Atromitos’s performance** as a guest**.

Atromitos,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 26.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Atromitos scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Atromitos was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Apr |
Larisa |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Apr |
Apollon |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Mar |
Giannina |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Mar |
Lamia |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Asteras Tripolis |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Feb |
Aris |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

20 Feb |
Larisa |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Feb |
Apollon |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **OFI Crete** is **-0.259** and for the **Atromitos** is **-0.611.**

The home dynamic for the **OFI Crete** is **-0.944** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Atromitos** is **-0.41.**

The offensive ability for the **OFI Crete** is **-0.529** and for the **Atromitos** is **-0.614.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **OFI Crete** is **-0.259** and for the **Atromitos** is **-0.626.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **OFI Crete** and the red line for guest team, **Atromitos. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

OFI Crete |
35% |
30% |
24% |
11% |

Atromitos |
40% |
34% |
18% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **OFI Crete** to score **1.36 ** goals and **Atromitos** to score **0.88 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.23** goals in the game and the home team **OFI Crete ** to win by **0.48** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **OFI Crete** to score **1.11 ** goals and **Atromitos** to score **0.96 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.07** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.15** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
7.14 |
0-1 |
2.65 |

1 |
4.22 |
2-3 |
2.15 |

2 |
3.88 |
4+ |
6.37 |

3 |
4.81 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.61 |

4 |
9.43 |
Un 1.5 |
2.65 |

5 |
24.39 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.74 |

6+ |
100.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.57 |

Gg |
2.57 |
Ov 3.5 |
6.37 |

NoG |
1.64 |
Un 3.5 |
1.19 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.17 |
2.69 |
3.19 |

2-3 goals |
2.12 |
4.66 |
3.19 |

4+ goals |
2.80 |
3.02 |
3.20 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.26 |
4.10 |
3.19 |

Un 1.5 |
3.17 |
2.69 |
3.19 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.03 |
7.02 |
2.74 |

Un 2.5 |
2.95 |
2.65 |
3.53 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.80 |
3.02 |
3.20 |

Un 3.5 |
2.49 |
3.51 |
3.19 |

Goal-Goal |
2.86 |
2.56 |
3.85 |

No Goal |
2.36 |
4.36 |
2.88 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.13 |
5.56 |
2.86 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.49 |
4.36 |
2.97 |

####
Go to Top

###
Panathinaikos vs Aris at 18 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Panathinaikos** and **Aris** for **Super League (Greece)**, which will take place on **18 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Panathinaikos |
2.49 |
2.07 |
8.1 |

Draw |
3.02 |
3.68 |
-5.9 |

Aris |
2.80 |
4.08 |
-11.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.43 |
2.52 |
-1.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.52 |
1.66 |
-5.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Panathinaikos (8.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 13%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Panathinaikos** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Panathinaikos** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Panathinaikos** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Panathinaikos’s performance** at home**.

Panathinaikos,** at home**, had 8 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Panathinaikos was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

11 Apr |
Olympiakos |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

04 Apr |
PAOK |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

21 Mar |
Asteras Tripolis |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

14 Mar |
PAOK |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Giannina |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

28 Feb |
AEK |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

22 Feb |
Panetolikos |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Olympiakos |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Aris** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Aris scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Aris** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Aris scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Aris’s performance** as a guest**.

Aris,** as a guest**, had 7 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 59.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Aris scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Aris was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

11 Apr |
AEK |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

04 Apr |
Asteras Tripolis |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Mar |
Olympiakos |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Mar |
OFI Crete |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Mar |
PAOK |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

28 Feb |
Atromitos |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

21 Feb |
Olympiakos |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Feb |
Panetolikos |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Panathinaikos** is **0** and for the **Aris** is **0.048.**

The home dynamic for the **Panathinaikos** is **0.441** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Aris** is **0.394.**

The offensive ability for the **Panathinaikos** is **0.572** and for the **Aris** is **0.578.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Panathinaikos** is **-0.63** and for the **Aris** is **0.13.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Panathinaikos** and the red line for guest team, **Aris. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Panathinaikos |
26% |
34% |
24% |
16% |

Aris |
45% |
33% |
10% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Panathinaikos** to score **1.09 ** goals and **Aris** to score **1.01 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.1** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.08** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Panathinaikos** to score **1.3 ** goals and **Aris** to score **0.88 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.18** goals in the game and the home team **Panathinaikos ** to win by **0.42** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
8.55 |
0-1 |
2.81 |

1 |
4.18 |
2-3 |
2.16 |

2 |
4.07 |
4+ |
5.52 |

3 |
4.61 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.55 |

4 |
8.55 |
Un 1.5 |
2.81 |

5 |
22.22 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.51 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.66 |

Gg |
2.45 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.52 |

NoG |
1.69 |
Un 3.5 |
1.22 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.34 |
3.04 |
4.09 |