2021 04 17 France’s LNB Pro A



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Orleans vs Le Mans at 17 April 2021
Nanterre vs Elan Chalon at 17 April 2021
Pau-Lacq-Orthez vs Metropolitans 92 at 17 April 2021
Cholet vs Strasbourg at 17 April 2021
Boulazac Dordogne Pro vs ASVEL at 17 April 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Orleans vs Le Mans at 17 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Orleans and Le Mans for France’s LNB Pro A, which will take place on 17 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Orleans

1.7

2.72

Le Mans

2.22

1.58

Orleans HC

-2.5

4.00

Le Mans HC

+2.5

-4.00

Point Line

168.5

168.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Orleans are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 11

A

Paris Levallois

L

65

87

7

9

L 3

72

89

Apr 3

A

Monaco

L

80

92

7

8

L 2

87

89

Mar 27

A

Cholet

L

70

91

7

7

L 1

70

90

Mar 16

H

Dijon

W

74

69

7

6

W 3

81

69

Mar 13

A

Elan Bearnais

W

101

72

6

6

W 2

95

74

Mar 9

H

Roanne

W

108

100

5

6

W 1

107

102

Feb 12

H

Monaco

L

85

86

4

6

L 1

92

83

Feb 6

H

BCM Gravelines

W

104

69

4

5

W 1

104

72

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Le Mans are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 15

H

Cholet

W

85

84

10

6

W 2

85

83

Apr 13

H

Le Portel

W

90

61

9

6

W 1

88

66

Apr 9

A

Roanne

L

72

90

8

6

L 1

72

92

Apr 7

A

Boulazac

W

105

99

8

5

W 2

98

105

Mar 16

H

ASVEL

W

105

96

7

5

W 1

106

87

Mar 12

H

JL Bourg

L

85

86

6

5

L 2

84

79

Mar 5

A

BCM Gravelines

L

77

91

6

4

L 1

77

96

Feb 5

H

Roanne

W

97

84

6

3

W 4

96

86

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Orleans and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Le Mans.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Le Mans and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Orleans.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Orleans (in the first graph) and by Le Mans in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Orleans will expected to score 86 points and the Le Mans 85 points. The total points line estimated to be at 171.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Orleans

Le Mans

FG%

0.57

0.56

ASS

19.70

20.30

DRB

22.40

22.60

AST-TO

1.30

1.39

TRB

30.00

31.40

FTM

17.70

17.40

BL

1.90

3.00

FTA

23.50

22.80

PF-Fewer

18.70

22.70

ST

8.70

7.20

TO-Fewer

15.10

14.60

Ftper

0.75

0.76

ORBper

0.34

0.39

ORB

7.60

8.80


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Nanterre vs Elan Chalon at 17 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Nanterre and Elan Chalon for France’s LNB Pro A, which will take place on 17 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Nanterre

1.37

2.16

Elan Chalon

3.25

1.86

Nanterre HC

-6.5

2.00

Elan Chalon HC

+6.5

-2.00

Point Line

164.5

160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Nanterre are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 13

A

Strasbourg

L

81

86

5

11

L 5

83

85

Apr 3

H

Boulazac

L

84

86

5

10

L 4

78

92

Mar 27

A

Elan Bearnais

L

79

86

5

9

L 3

75

89

Mar 23

A

ASVEL

L

92

96

5

8

L 2

93

87

Mar 16

H

Roanne

L

74

79

5

7

L 1

74

81

Mar 13

H

Chalons-Reims

W

96

71

5

6

W 1

89

71

Mar 7

A

JL Bourg

L

72

97

4

6

L 2

71

89

Feb 13

H

Dijon

L

77

86

4

5

L 1

84

86

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Elan Chalon are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 14

H

Monaco

L

78

86

7

11

L 2

84

83

Apr 7

A

Paris Levallois

L

80

88

7

10

L 1

88

90

Apr 2

H

JL Bourg

W

96

90

7

9

W 1

95

83

Mar 27

A

Le Portel

L

83

84

6

9

L 1

81

92

Mar 21

H

Le Portel

W

89

75

6

8

W 2

87

82

Mar 16

H

Boulazac

W

80

68

5

8

W 1

75

72

Mar 13

A

Strasbourg

L

92

96

4

8

L 1

94

95

Mar 6

H

Cholet

W

84

79

4

7

W 1

84

78

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Nanterre and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Elan Chalon.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Elan Chalon and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Nanterre.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Nanterre (in the first graph) and by Elan Chalon in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Nanterre will expected to score 81 points and the Elan Chalon 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 162.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Nanterre

Elan Chalon

FG%

0.53

0.53

ASS

13.10

19.10

DRB

21.10

23.40

AST-TO

1.15

1.07

TRB

30.10

32.10

FTM

14.80

15.30

BL

2.60

2.20

FTA

19.60

20.50

PF-Fewer

21.10

20.70

ST

6.80

6.50

TO-Fewer

11.40

17.80

Ftper

0.76

0.75

ORBper

0.43

0.37

ORB

9.10

8.70


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Pau-Lacq-Orthez vs Metropolitans 92 at 17 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Pau-Lacq-Orthez and Metropolitans 92 for France’s LNB Pro A, which will take place on 17 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Pau-Lacq-Orthez

3.25

2.35

Metropolitans 92

1.36

1.74

Pau-Lacq-Orthez HC

+6.5

3.00

Metropolitans 92 HC

-6.5

-3.00

Point Line

157.5

160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Pau-Lacq-Orthez are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 13

A

Roanne

W

80

72

6

13

W 2

79

74

Apr 10

H

Strasbourg

W

73

69

5

13

W 1

74

68

Apr 2

A

Chalons-Reims

L

86

102

4

13

L 1

80

102

Mar 27

H

Nanterre

W

86

79

4

12

W 1

85

78

Mar 20

H

Roanne

L

60

81

3

12

L 11

60

83

Mar 16

A

JL Bourg

L

58

88

3

11

L 10

57

81

Mar 13

H

Orleans Loiret

L

72

101

3

10

L 9

70

94

Mar 6

A

Monaco

L

95

102

3

9

L 8

103

98

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Metropolitans 92 are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 11

H

Orleans Loiret

W

87

65

12

7

W 2

85

60

Apr 7

H

Elan Chalon

W

88

80

11

7

W 1

86

82

Apr 3

A

BCM Gravelines

L

61

72

10

7

L 3

61

76

Mar 16

A

Limoges

L

79

85

10

6

L 2

80

92

Mar 13

A

Dijon

L

64

66

10

5

L 1

70

66

Mar 6

H

Le Portel

W

85

60

10

4

W 2

83

65

Feb 12

A

Le Portel

W

86

73

9

4

W 1

84

80

Feb 6

H

Strasbourg

L

63

71

8

4

L 2

64

70

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Pau-Lacq-Orthez and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Metropolitans 92.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Metropolitans 92 and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Pau-Lacq-Orthez.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Pau-Lacq-Orthez (in the first graph) and by Metropolitans 92 in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Pau-Lacq-Orthez will expected to score 76 points and the Metropolitans 92 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 157.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Pau-Lacq-Orthez

Metropolitans 92

FG%

0.54

0.56

ASS

16.40

19.30

DRB

22.50

21.40

AST-TO

0.99

1.52

TRB

29.50

29.40

FTM

13.80

12.30

BL

1.80

3.20

FTA

17.80

16.30

PF-Fewer

22.10

20.40

ST

7.90

7.20

TO-Fewer

16.50

12.70

Ftper

0.77

0.76

ORBper

0.31

0.37

ORB

6.90

8.00


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Cholet vs Strasbourg at 17 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Cholet and Strasbourg for France’s LNB Pro A, which will take place on 17 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Cholet

1.8

1.84

Strasbourg

2.05

2.18

Cholet HC

-1.5

-2.00

Strasbourg HC

+1.5

2.00

Point Line

160.5

161.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Cholet are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 15

A

Le Mans

L

84

85

6

10

L 2

82

78

Apr 9

H

Limoges

L

81

82

6

9

L 1

82

89

Apr 4

A

Le Portel

W

91

65

6

8

W 3

89

71

Mar 29

A

Monaco

W

97

76

5

8

W 2

105

73

Mar 27

H

Orleans Loiret

W

91

70

4

8

W 1

89

65

Mar 20

H

Monaco

L

76

87

3

8

L 4

82

84

Mar 6

A

Elan Chalon

L

79

84

3

7

L 3

77

86

Feb 1

A

Strasbourg

L

72

75

3

6

L 2

74

74

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Strasbourg are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 13

H

Nanterre

W

86

81

11

5

W 1

85

80

Apr 10

A

Elan Bearnais

L

69

73

10

5

L 1

65

75

Mar 27

H

Dijon

W

84

78

10

4

W 7

92

78

Mar 18

A

BCM Gravelines

W

81

78

9

4

W 6

81

82

Mar 13

H

Elan Chalon

W

96

92

8

4

W 5

94

94

Feb 6

A

Paris Levallois

W

71

63

7

4

W 4

78

65

Feb 1

H

Cholet

W

75

72

6

4

W 3

75

71

Jan 16

A

Roanne

W

82

78

5

4

W 2

81

80

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Cholet and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Strasbourg.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Strasbourg and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Cholet.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Cholet (in the first graph) and by Strasbourg in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Cholet will expected to score 82 points and the Strasbourg 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Cholet

Strasbourg

FG%

0.56

0.53

ASS

18.60

18.50

DRB

22.20

20.30

AST-TO

1.31

1.28

TRB

30.90

30.60

FTM

12.80

14.70

BL

2.00

2.80

FTA

18.30

18.40

PF-Fewer

18.90

22.40

ST

9.20

9.40

TO-Fewer

14.20

14.40

Ftper

0.70

0.80

ORBper

0.40

0.51

ORB

8.80

10.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Boulazac Dordogne Pro vs ASVEL at 17 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Boulazac Dordogne Pro and ASVEL for France’s LNB Pro A, which will take place on 17 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Boulazac Dordogne Pro

6.3

4.80

ASVEL

1.14

1.26

Boulazac Dordogne Pro HC

+10.5

8.00

ASVEL HC

-10.5

-8.00

Point Line

161.5

165.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Boulazac Dordogne Pro are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 13

H

JL Bourg

L

68

81

2

13

L 3

67

75

Apr 10

A

Dijon

L

77

86

2

12

L 2

84

86

Apr 7

H

Le Mans

L

99

105

2

11

L 1

96

97

Apr 3

A

Nanterre

W

86