2021 04 17 German BBL



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Oldenburg vs Brose Bamberg at 19 April 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Oldenburg vs Brose Bamberg at 19 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Oldenburg and Brose Bamberg for German BBL, which will take place on 19 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Oldenburg

1.31

1.49

Brose Bamberg

3.6

3.06

Oldenburg HC

-7.5

-5.00

Brose Bamberg HC

+7.5

5.00

Point Line

176.5

169.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Oldenburg are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 14

A

Hamburg Towers

L

74

80

21

7

79

79

Apr 10

H

Telekom Baskets Bonn

W

106

87

21

6

105

88

Apr 4

A

s.Oliver Baskets

W

116

66

20

6

112

71

Mar 26

A

BV Chemnitz 99

W

98

92

19

6

94

96

Mar 19

H

SC Rasta Vechta

W

101

71

18

6

96

75

Mar 14

A

Bayern Munich

L

102

108

17

6

109

103

Mar 9

A

ALBA Berlin

W

89

81

17

5

99

79

Mar 6

A

MHP RIESEN Ludwigsburg

L

87

98

16

5

94

94

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Brose Bamberg are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 14

H

SC Rasta Vechta

W

104

76

15

12

99

80

Apr 10

A

Medi Bayreuth

W

97

88

14

12

96

89

Apr 3

H

Hamburg Towers

L

64

76

13

12

68

76

Mar 27

H

Ratiopharm Ulm

W

88

74

13

11

94

72

Mar 20

A

Mitteldeutscher BC

W

100

89

12

11

92

89

Mar 13

A

Telekom Baskets Bonn

W

86

82

11

11

85

83

Feb 28

H

Fraport Skyliners

W

78

62

10

11

80

67

Feb 14

H

ALBA Berlin

W

76

67

9

11

84

65

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Oldenburg and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Brose Bamberg.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Brose Bamberg and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Oldenburg.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Oldenburg (in the first graph) and by Brose Bamberg in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Oldenburg will expected to score 87 points and the Brose Bamberg 84 points. The total points line estimated to be at 171.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Oldenburg

Brose Bamberg

FG%

0.61

0.56

ASS

22.10

20.00

DRB

22.70

22.40

AST-TO

2.03

1.43

TRB

29.90

31.90

FTM

16.00

13.30

BL

1.90

3.00

FTA

19.20

16.60

PF-Fewer

21.40

18.90

ST

7.40

6.20

TO-Fewer

10.90

14.00

Ftper

0.83

0.80

ORBper

0.32

0.43

ORB

7.20

9.60


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