2021 04 17 Greek Basket League



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

PAOK vs Panathinaikos at 18 April 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



PAOK vs Panathinaikos at 18 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between PAOK and Panathinaikos for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 18 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

PAOK

3.95

3.71

Panathinaikos

1.27

1.37

PAOK HC

+8.5

6.50

Panathinaikos HC

-8.5

-6.50

Point Line

164.5

158.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of PAOK are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 11

H

Peristeri

W

85

66

12

8

W 4

87

69

Apr 3

A

Ionikos Nikaias

W

84

83

11

8

W 3

80

83

Mar 28

H

Kolossos Rodou

W

82

74

10

8

W 2

83

73

Mar 20

A

Aris

W

77

71

9

8

W 1

77

74

Mar 13

H

AEK Athens

L

85

87

8

8

L 1

89

82

Mar 6

H

Promitheas Patras

W

81

78

8

7

W 2

82

84

Feb 28

A

Larisa

W

91

88

7

7

W 1

87

90

Jan 30

A

Lavrio B.C.

L

77

84

6

7

L 2

77

78

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Panathinaikos are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 10

H

Lavrio B.C.

W

105

69

16

2

W 6

105

64

Mar 27

H

Messolonghi

W

102

68

15

2

W 5

96

72

Mar 22

A

Peristeri

W

74

68

14

2

W 4

76

72

Mar 13

H

Ionikos Nikaias

W

98

74

13

2

W 3

93

74

Mar 7

A

Kolossos Rodou

W

95

82

12

2

W 2

96

81

Feb 28

H

Aris

W

94

72

11

2

W 1

94

75

Jan 31

H

Promitheas Patras

L

78

80

10

2

L 1

80

86

Jan 24

A

Larisa

W

98

89

10

1

W 3

94

91

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by PAOK and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Panathinaikos.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Panathinaikos and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by PAOK.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by PAOK (in the first graph) and by Panathinaikos in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, PAOK will expected to score 77 points and the Panathinaikos 83 points. The total points line estimated to be at 160.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

PAOK

Panathinaikos

FG%

0.54

0.61

ASS

14.70

20.90

DRB

22.70

25.30

AST-TO

1.05

1.48

TRB

30.10

34.80

FTM

14.40

14.20

BL

2.10

3.10

FTA

18.60

18.70

PF-Fewer

23.00

20.40

ST

8.20

7.50

TO-Fewer

14.00

14.10

Ftper

0.77

0.76

ORBper

0.33

0.38

ORB

7.50

9.60


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