2021 04 17 Italy’s Lega Basket Serie A



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Olimpia Milano vs Virtus Bologna at 17 April 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Olimpia Milano vs Virtus Bologna at 17 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Olimpia Milano and Virtus Bologna for Serie A, which will take place on 17 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Olimpia Milano

1.39

1.96

Virtus Bologna

3.1

2.04

Olimpia Milano HC

-5.5

-1.50

Virtus Bologna HC

+5.5

1.50

Point Line

159.5

158.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Olimpia Milano are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 14

A

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

W

85

73

20

6

W 1

81

65

Apr 11

A

Enel Brindisi

L

71

80

19

6

L 3

75

75

Apr 5

H

Openjobmetis Varese

L

81

83

19

5

L 2

78

82

Mar 28

A

Umana Reyer Venezia

L

63

69

19

4

L 1

67

69

Mar 21

H

Red October Cantu

W

70

57

19

3

W 2

70

59

Mar 14

A

Germani Basket Brescia

W

99

92

18

3

W 1

96

92

Mar 7

A

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

L

60

61

17

3

L 1

62

63

Feb 28

H

Fortitudo Bologna

W

98

72

17

2

W 1

98

74

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Virtus Bologna are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 11

H

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

W

81

67

18

7

W 4

82

68

Apr 3

A

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

W

108

77

17

7

W 3

103

69

Mar 28

H

Fortitudo Bologna

W

81

73

16

7

W 2

81

76

Mar 20

A

Consultinvest Pesaro

W

75

70

15

7

W 1

74

70

Mar 13

A

Enel Brindisi

L

85

91

14

7

L 1

90

85

Mar 6

H

Umana Reyer Venezia

W

77

72

14

6

W 4

82

72

Feb 27

H

Openjobmetis Varese

W

85

76

13

6

W 3

81

76

Feb 7

A

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

W

89

62

12

6

W 2

90

65

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Olimpia Milano and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Virtus Bologna.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Virtus Bologna and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Olimpia Milano.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Olimpia Milano (in the first graph) and by Virtus Bologna in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Olimpia Milano will expected to score 80 points and the Virtus Bologna 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 160.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Olimpia Milano

Virtus Bologna

FG%

0.56

0.56

ASS

18.00

22.40

DRB

24.10

26.40

AST-TO

1.65

1.65

TRB

31.50

35.20

FTM

15.00

14.00

BL

3.00

2.60

FTA

18.20

18.60

PF-Fewer

18.30

20.00

ST

7.20

7.90

TO-Fewer

10.90

13.60

Ftper

0.83

0.75

ORBper

0.31

0.34

ORB

7.40

8.90


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