2021 04 17 Spain’s Liga ACB



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Barcelona vs Manresa at 17 April 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Barcelona vs Manresa at 17 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Barcelona and Manresa for Liga ACB, which will take place on 17 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Barcelona

1.11

3.56

Manresa

7.4

1.39

Barcelona HC

-12.5

6.50

Manresa HC

+12.5

-6.50

Point Line

164.5

164.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Barcelona are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 9

H

Bayern Munich

L

72

82

24

10

L 1

72

82

Apr 2

A

Fenerbahce

W

82

73

24

9

W 1

82

73

Mar 30

A

Maccabi Tel Aviv

L

94

99

23

9

L 1

94

99

Mar 26

H

Alba Berlin

W

80

67

23

8

W 5

80

67

Mar 19

A

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

W

72

56

22

8

W 4

72

56

Mar 11

A

Real Madrid

W

81

76

21

8

W 3

88

72

Mar 5

H

Kirolbet Baskonia

W

71

57

20

8

W 2

71

57

Mar 2

A

Panathinaikos OPAP

W

85

77

19

8

W 1

85

77

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Manresa are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 15

H

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

W

92

82

14

16

W 1

85

83

Apr 10

A

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

L

87

90

13

16

L 1

85

93

Apr 3

A

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

108

96

13

15

W 1

102

99

Mar 27

H

Real Madrid

L

76

77

12

15

L 2

83

73

Mar 21

A

MoraBanc Andorra

L

86

92

12

14

L 1

90

97

Mar 14

H

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

90

76

12

13

W 1

89

78

Mar 7

A

Valencia Basket

L

82

112

11

13

L 1

84

108

Feb 27

H

UCAM Murcia

W

85

84

11

12

W 1

85

85

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Barcelona and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Manresa.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Manresa and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Barcelona.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Barcelona (in the first graph) and by Manresa in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Barcelona will expected to score 84 points and the Manresa 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Barcelona

Manresa

FG%

0.48

0.56

ASS

15.10

15.60

DRB

18.00

21.80

AST-TO

1.12

1.10

TRB

26.90

30.20

FTM

13.10

17.20

BL

2.50

3.50

FTA

17.20

22.50

PF-Fewer

20.90

20.90

ST

8.50

8.60

TO-Fewer

13.50

14.20

Ftper

0.76

0.76

ORBper

0.49

0.39

ORB

8.80

8.40


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