2021 04 17 Turkey Super League



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Galatasaray vs Bursaspor at 17 April 2021
Fethiye Belediye vs Buyukcekmece at 17 April 2021
Besiktas vs Afyon Belediye at 18 April 2021
Tofas vs Darussafaka at 18 April 2021
Gaziantep vs Bahcesehir Koleji at 18 April 2021
Petkim Spor vs Turk Telekom at 18 April 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Galatasaray vs Bursaspor at 17 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Galatasaray and Bursaspor for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 17 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Galatasaray

1.6

1.29

Bursaspor

2.32

4.44

Galatasaray HC

-3.5

-7.50

Bursaspor HC

+3.5

7.50

Point Line

171.5

163.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Galatasaray are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 10

A

Pinar Karsiyaka

W

94

92

10

18

W 2

99

89

Apr 4

H

Afyon

W

110

70

9

18

W 1

104

70

Mar 28

A

Buyukcekmece

L

101

105

8

18

L 1

96

106

Mar 20

H

Bahcesehir

W

101

90

8

17

W 1

101

90

Mar 14

A

Turk Telekom

L

77

81

7

17

L 5

76

86

Mar 6

H

Darussafaka

L

87

98

7

16

L 4

90

97

Feb 27

A

Tofas

L

89

98

7

15

L 3

90

92

Feb 10

H

Socar Spor

L

65

89

7

14

L 2

65

91

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bursaspor are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 11

H

Fenerbahce

W

82

77

12

16

W 1

88

71

Apr 4

H

Anadolu Efes

L

76

95

11

16

L 1

82

86

Mar 27

A

Pinar Karsiyaka

W

85

84

11

15

W 4

90

81

Mar 21

H

Afyon

W

81

75

10

15

W 3

76

75

Mar 14

A

Buyukcekmece

W

73

68

9

15

W 2

70

68

Mar 7

H

Bahcesehir

W

67

64

8

15

W 1

67

64

Feb 27

A

Turk Telekom

L

82

83

7

15

L 3

81

88

Feb 10

H

Darussafaka

L

68

70

7

14

L 2

70

69

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Galatasaray and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bursaspor.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bursaspor and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Galatasaray.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Galatasaray (in the first graph) and by Bursaspor in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Galatasaray will expected to score 83 points and the Bursaspor 83 points. The total points line estimated to be at 166.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Galatasaray

Bursaspor

FG%

0.55

0.53

ASS

19.40

19.10

DRB

22.00

20.90

AST-TO

1.58

1.65

TRB

30.20

28.80

FTM

13.70

12.30

BL

2.40

2.40

FTA

18.40

16.60

PF-Fewer

18.40

21.50

ST

6.10

5.90

TO-Fewer

12.30

11.60

Ftper

0.75

0.74

ORBper

0.37

0.38

ORB

8.20

7.90


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Fethiye Belediye vs Buyukcekmece at 17 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Fethiye Belediye and Buyukcekmece for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 17 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Fethiye Belediye

1.47

3.21

Buyukcekmece

2.62

1.45

Fethiye Belediye HC

-4.5

5.50

Buyukcekmece HC

+4.5

-5.50

Point Line

167.5

163.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Fethiye Belediye are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 10

A

Bahcesehir

L

71

99

7

21

L 1

71

99

Apr 3

H

Turk Telekom

W

82

81

7

20

W 1

81

86

Mar 28

A

Darussafaka

L

81

96

6

20

L 2

84

95

Mar 20

H

Tofas

L

76

101

6

19

L 1

76

95

Mar 13

A

Socar Spor

W

79

69

6

18

W 1

79

70

Mar 7

H

Gaziantep

L

60

90

5

18

L 3

65

97

Feb 28

A

Anadolu Efes

L

85

101

5

17

L 2

92

91

Feb 10

A

Besiktas

L

65

76

5

16

L 1

66

73

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Buyukcekmece are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 3

A

Ormanspor

W

85

74

10

17

W 2

78

80

Mar 28

H

Galatasaray

W

105

101

9

17

W 1

100

99

Mar 21

A

Fenerbahce

L

70

81

8

17

L 3

75

75

Mar 14

H

Bursaspor

L

68

73

8

16

L 2

67

76

Mar 6

A

Pinar Karsiyaka

L

82

117

8

15

L 1

86

113

Feb 28

H

Afyon

W

95

83

8

14

W 1

90

82

Feb 9

H

Anadolu Efes

L

83

94

7

14

L 7

90

85

Feb 6

A

Bahcesehir

L

74

83

7

13

L 6

74

83

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Fethiye Belediye and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Buyukcekmece.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Buyukcekmece and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Fethiye Belediye.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Fethiye Belediye (in the first graph) and by Buyukcekmece in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Fethiye Belediye will expected to score 82 points and the Buyukcekmece 84 points. The total points line estimated to be at 166.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Fethiye Belediye

Buyukcekmece

FG%

0.51

0.51

ASS

19.00

18.20

DRB

22.50

22.60

AST-TO

1.43

1.50

TRB

31.30

32.10

FTM

11.90

14.10

BL

2.60

1.90

FTA

16.40

18.00

PF-Fewer

18.90

20.70

ST

5.60

6.10

TO-Fewer

13.30

12.10

Ftper

0.73

0.78

ORBper

0.39

0.42

ORB

8.80

9.50


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Besiktas vs Afyon Belediye at 18 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Besiktas and Afyon Belediye for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 18 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Besiktas

1.29

1.45

Afyon Belediye

3.5

3.22

Besiktas HC

-7.5

-5.50

Afyon Belediye HC

+7.5

5.50

Point Line

162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Besiktas are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 15

H

Bahcesehir

W

83

77

16

11

W 3

83

77

Mar 28

A

Turk Telekom

W

94

85

15

11

W 2

93

90

Mar 20

H

Darussafaka

W

98

93

14

11

W 1

101

92

Mar 13

A

Tofas

L

86

89

13

11

L 1

87

84

Mar 6

H

Socar Spor

W

96

94

13

10

W 3

96

96

Feb 28

A

Gaziantep

W

84

77

12

10

W 2

90

83

Feb 10

H

Fethiye

W

76

65

11

10

W 1

70

69

Feb 7

A

Anadolu Efes

L

80

84

10

10

L 1

86

76

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Afyon Belediye are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 4

A

Galatasaray

L

70

110

12

15

L 4

66

108

Mar 28

H

Fenerbahce

L

87

97

12

14

L 3

93

90

Mar 21

A

Bursaspor

L

75

81

12

13

L 2

74

84

Mar 13

H

Pinar Karsiyaka

L

69

75

12

12

L 1

73

72

Mar 7

H

Anadolu Efes

W

103

85

12

11

W 1

111

77

Feb 28

A

Buyukcekmece

L

83

95

11

11

L 3

79

96

Feb 9

H

Bahcesehir

L

77

89

11

10

L 2

77

89

Feb 6

A

Turk Telekom

L

86

89

11

9

L 1

85

94

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Besiktas and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Afyon Belediye.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Afyon Belediye and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Besiktas.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Besiktas (in the first graph) and by Afyon Belediye in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Besiktas will expected to score 85 points and the Afyon Belediye 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 167.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Besiktas

Afyon Belediye

FG%

0.54

0.54

ASS

19.40

20.30

DRB

22.30

22.10

AST-TO

1.54

1.42

TRB

32.40

32.00

FTM

16.20

11.60

BL

2.90

2.60

FTA

21.10

15.40

PF-Fewer

21.10

19.30

ST

6.60

7.10

TO-Fewer

12.60

14.30

Ftper

0.76

0.75

ORBper

0.45

0.45

ORB

10.10

9.90


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Tofas vs Darussafaka at 18 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Tofas and Darussafaka for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 18 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Tofas

1.44

2.12

Darussafaka

2.72

1.89

Tofas HC

-4.5

1.50

Darussafaka HC

+4.5

-1.50

Point Line

166.5

162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Tofas are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 15

A

Socar Spor

W

83

62

17

11

W 1

83

63

Apr 12

A

Anadolu Efes

L

85

87

16

11

L 1

92

79

Mar 27

H

Gaziantep

W

84

72

16

10

W 3

90

78

Mar 20

A

Fethiye

W

101

76

15

10

W 2

93

81

Mar 13

H

Besiktas

W

89

86

14

10

W 1

90

83

Mar 6

A

Ormanspor

L

76

77

13

10

L 1

70

83

Feb 27

H

Galatasaray

W

98

89

13

9

W 3

93

87

Feb 10

A

Fenerbahce

W

84

81

12

9

W 2

90

75

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Darussafaka are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 3

A

Gaziantep

W

82

76

15

12

W 2

88

82

Mar 28

H

Fethiye

W

96

81

14

12

W 1

89

86

Mar 20

A

Besiktas

L

93

98

13

12

L 1

94

94

Mar 13

H

Ormanspor

W

90

68

13

11

W 2

83

74

Mar 6

A

Galatasaray

W

98

87

12

11

W 1

93

85

Feb 28

H

Fenerbahce

L

64

66

11

11

L 1

69

61

Feb 10

A

Bursaspor

W

70

68

11

10

W 2

69

71

Feb 6

H

Pinar Karsiyaka

W

86

77

10

10

W 1

91

74

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Tofas and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Darussafaka.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Darussafaka and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Tofas.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Tofas (in the first graph) and by Darussafaka in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Tofas will expected to score 82 points and the Darussafaka 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Tofas

Darussafaka

FG%

0.56

0.51

ASS

21.60

18.60

DRB

21.90

21.60

AST-TO

1.85

1.60

TRB

30.50

32.90

FTM

12.40

16.20

BL

2.60

2.90

FTA

16.30

20.90

PF-Fewer

20.70

23.40

ST

8.50

8.40

TO-Fewer

11.70

11.60

Ftper

0.76

0.78

ORBper

0.39

0.52

ORB

8.60

11.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Gaziantep vs Bahcesehir Koleji at 18 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Gaziantep and Bahcesehir Koleji for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 18 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Gaziantep

1.21

2.09

Bahcesehir Koleji

4.3

1.92

Gaziantep HC

-9.5

1.50

Bahcesehir Koleji HC

+9.5

-1.50

Point Line

154.5

151.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Gaziantep are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 11

A

Turk Telekom

L

66

84

13

15

L 3

65

89

Apr 3

H

Darussafaka

L

76

82

13

14

L 2

79

81

Mar 27

A

Tofas

L

72

84

13

13

L 1

72

79

Mar 21

H

Socar Spor

W

76

64

13

12

W 1