2021 04 17 VTB United League



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Parma Perm vs Avtodor at 17 April 2021
Lokomotiv Kuban vs CSKA Moscow at 17 April 2021
Astana vs Unics at 17 April 2021
Nizhny Novgorod vs Zenit Saint Petersburg at 17 April 2021
BC Kalev/Cramo Tallinn vs Khimki at 17 April 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Parma Perm vs Avtodor at 17 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Parma Perm and Avtodor for VTB United League, which will take place on 17 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Parma Perm

1.31

2.59

Avtodor

3.35

1.63

Parma Perm HC

-7.5

4.00

Avtodor HC

+7.5

-4.00

Point Line

166.5

160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Parma Perm are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 14

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

W

78

76

10

12

W 1

88

74

Apr 11

H

Nizhny Novgorod

L

67

72

9

12

L 1

69

74

Apr 4

H

Tsmoki Minsk

W

74

65

9

11

W 2

70

73

Mar 29

A

Astana

W

84

80

8

11

W 1

79

85

Mar 18

A

Lokomotiv Kuban

L

68

85

7

11

L 3

66

76

Mar 15

A

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

84

89

7

10

L 2

94

87

Mar 8

A

Zielona Gora

L

92

95

7

9

L 1

87

90

Feb 12

A

Kalev/Cramo

W

85

72

7

8

W 2

81

76

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Avtodor are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 9

A

Enisey

L

85

86

8

14

L 5

80

91

Apr 3

H

Nizhny Novgorod

L

93

99

8

13

L 4

95

101

Mar 23

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

62

89

8

12

L 3

70

87

Mar 13

A

Lokomotiv Kuban

L

89

104

8

11

L 2

87

92

Mar 7

A

Kalev/Cramo

L

77

85

8

10

L 1

73

90

Feb 28

H

Tsmoki Minsk

W

113

66

8

9

W 1

108

74

Feb 11

A

Nizhny Novgorod

L

80

86

7

9

L 2

82

88

Feb 7

H

UNICS

L

97

110

7

8

L 1

106

110

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Parma Perm and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Avtodor.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Avtodor and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Parma Perm.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Parma Perm (in the first graph) and by Avtodor in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Parma Perm will expected to score 83 points and the Avtodor 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 164.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Parma Perm

Avtodor

FG%

0.55

0.53

ASS

19.90

17.00

DRB

20.50

22.90

AST-TO

1.36

1.31

TRB

27.50

31.70

FTM

14.20

15.80

BL

2.30

2.50

FTA

18.50

20.70

PF-Fewer

21.80

20.60

ST

6.80

5.70

TO-Fewer

14.60

13.00

Ftper

0.77

0.76

ORBper

0.34

0.38

ORB

7.00

8.80


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Lokomotiv Kuban vs CSKA Moscow at 17 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Lokomotiv Kuban and CSKA Moscow for VTB United League, which will take place on 17 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Lokomotiv Kuban

2.7

2.20

CSKA Moscow

1.45

1.83

Lokomotiv Kuban HC

+4.5

2.00

CSKA Moscow HC

-4.5

-2.00

Point Line

172.5

172.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Lokomotiv Kuban are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 12

A

Tsmoki Minsk

W

101

75

15

6

W 7

96

85

Apr 3

H

Astana

W

90

84

14

6

W 6

85

90

Mar 28

A

Kalev/Cramo

W

105

94

13

6

W 5

100

99

Mar 18

H

Parma

W

85

68

12

6

W 4

88

71

Mar 13

H

Avtodor

W

104

89

11

6

W 3

98

88

Feb 27

H

Enisey

W

100

98

10

6

W 2

94

104

Feb 8

A

BC Khimki

W

92

90

9

6

W 1

92

87

Jan 31

A

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

85

90

8

6

L 1

96

88

The latest results and the adjusted scores of CSKA Moscow are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 11

H

Astana

W

100

77

16

6

W 1

94

82

Apr 5

A

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

77

81

15

6

L 1

86

79

Mar 27

H

UNICS

W

102

86

15

5

W 4

112

86

Mar 22

A

Kalev/Cramo

W

94

72

14

5

W 3

90

76

Mar 15

H

BC Khimki

W

92

73

13

5

W 2

92

70

Mar 7

H

Tsmoki Minsk

W

101

67

12

5

W 1

96

76

Feb 13

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

71

74

11

5

L 1

80

72

Feb 10

A

Enisey

W

91

80

11

4

W 1

86

85

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Lokomotiv Kuban and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by CSKA Moscow.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by CSKA Moscow and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Lokomotiv Kuban.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Lokomotiv Kuban (in the first graph) and by CSKA Moscow in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Lokomotiv Kuban will expected to score 84 points and the CSKA Moscow 89 points. The total points line estimated to be at 173.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Lokomotiv Kuban

CSKA Moscow

FG%

0.55

0.58

ASS

21.70

19.80

DRB

24.90

22.60

AST-TO

1.78

1.69

TRB

33.70

32.90

FTM

17.00

19.90

BL

3.60

3.30

FTA

22.20

25.10

PF-Fewer

20.10

20.30

ST

6.70

6.90

TO-Fewer

12.20

11.70

Ftper

0.76

0.79

ORBper

0.36

0.45

ORB

8.90

10.20


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Astana vs Unics at 17 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Astana and Unics for VTB United League, which will take place on 17 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Astana

4.45

2.62

Unics

1.2

1.62

Astana HC

+9.5

4.00

Unics HC

-9.5

-4.00

Point Line

162.5

162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Astana are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 11

A

CSKA Moscow

L

77

100

5

16

L 3

83

87

Apr 3

A

Lokomotiv Kuban

L

84

90

5

15

L 2

82

80

Mar 29

H

Parma

L

80

84

5

14

L 1

82

87

Mar 21

A

Tsmoki Minsk

W

80

78

5

13

W 1

76

88

Mar 7

A

Nizhny Novgorod

L

73

75

4

13

L 6

75

77

Mar 1

H

Kalev/Cramo

L

61

77

4

12

L 5

58

81

Feb 12

H

BC Khimki

L

77

82

4

11

L 4

77

79

Feb 4

H

Enisey

L

60

78

4

10

L 3

56

83

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Unics are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 27

A

CSKA Moscow

L

86

102

15

5

L 1

92

89

Mar 13

A

Kalev/Cramo

W

76

49

15

4

W 10

72

52

Feb 27

H

Nizhny Novgorod

W

87

56

14

4

W 9

89

57

Feb 10

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

W

59

58

13

4

W 8

66

56

Feb 7

A

Avtodor

W

110

97

12

4

W 7

104

95

Jan 30

A

Tsmoki Minsk

W

76

66

11

4

W 6

72

74

Jan 23

A

Nizhny Novgorod

W

91

66

10

4

W 5

93

68

Jan 17

A

BC Khimki

W

93

87

9

4

W 4

93

84

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Astana and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Unics.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Unics and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Astana.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Astana (in the first graph) and by Unics in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Astana will expected to score 76 points and the Unics 84 points. The total points line estimated to be at 160.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Astana

Unics

FG%

0.52

0.55

ASS

18.80

16.00

DRB

21.90

20.80

AST-TO

1.40

1.34

TRB

29.30

29.90

FTM

12.90

14.00

BL

2.60

1.70

FTA

17.80

18.40

PF-Fewer

21.20

22.20

ST

5.70

8.30

TO-Fewer

13.40

11.90

Ftper

0.72

0.76

ORBper

0.34

0.44

ORB

7.50

9.10


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Nizhny Novgorod vs Zenit Saint Petersburg at 17 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Nizhny Novgorod and Zenit Saint Petersburg for VTB United League, which will take place on 17 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Nizhny Novgorod

2.27

4.78

Zenit Saint Petersburg

1.62

1.26

Nizhny Novgorod HC

+3.5

8.00

Zenit Saint Petersburg HC

-3.5

-8.00

Point Line

153.5

158.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Nizhny Novgorod are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 14

A

BC Khimki

W

69

64

14

7

W 6

69

62

Apr 11

A

Parma

W

72

67

13

7

W 5

74

70

Apr 3

A

Avtodor

W

99

93

12

7

W 4

93

92

Mar 28

A

Enisey

W

96

86

11

7

W 3

90

91

Mar 14

H

Tsmoki Minsk

W

78

57

10

7

W 2

74

64

Mar 7

H

Astana

W

75

73

9

7

W 1

71

78

Feb 27

A

UNICS

L

56

87

8

7

L 1

61

87

Feb 11

H

Avtodor

W

86

80

8

6

W 2

81

79

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zenit Saint Petersburg are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 14

A

Parma

L

76

78

19

4

L 1

78

81

Apr 5

H

CSKA Moscow

W

81

77

19

3

W 4

87

67

Mar 23

A

Avtodor

W

89

62

18

3

W 3

84

61

Mar 20

H

Enisey

W

84

71

17

3

W 2

79

75

Mar 15

H

Parma

W

89

84

16

3

W 1

92

87

Mar 8

H

BC Khimki

L

78

81

15

3

L 1

78

78

Feb 13

A

CSKA Moscow

W

74

71

15

2

W 1

80

62

Feb 10

A

UNICS

L

58

59

14

2

L 1

63

59

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Nizhny Novgorod and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zenit Saint Petersburg.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zenit Saint Petersburg and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Nizhny Novgorod.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Nizhny Novgorod (in the first graph) and by Zenit Saint Petersburg in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Nizhny Novgorod will expected to score 76 points and the Zenit Saint Petersburg 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 158.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Nizhny Novgorod

Zenit Saint Petersburg

FG%

0.54

0.57

ASS

18.20

19.20

DRB

21.00

23.00

AST-TO

1.43

1.39

TRB

29.20

31.10

FTM

13.30

18.20

BL

1.60

2.90

FTA

17.70

22.10

PF-Fewer

23.00

21.30

ST

6.90

7.40

TO-Fewer

12.70

13.80

Ftper

0.75

0.82

ORBper

0.39

0.36

ORB

8.10

8.20


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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BC Kalev/Cramo Tallinn vs Khimki at 17 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between BC Kalev/Cramo Tallinn and Khimki for VTB United League, which will take place on 17 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

BC Kalev/Cramo Tallinn

1.95

4.14

Khimki

1.83

1.32

BC Kalev/Cramo Tallinn HC

+1.5

7.50

Khimki HC

-1.5

-7.50

Point Line

165.5

163.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of BC Kalev/Cramo Tallinn are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 28

H

Lokomotiv Kuban

L

94

105

6

14

L 2

92

93

Mar 22

H

CSKA Moscow

L

72

94

6

13

L 1

77

82

Mar 16

A

Zielona Gora

W

95

88

6

12

W 1

90

83

Mar 13

H

UNICS

L

49

76