2021 04 20 Bundesliga (Germany)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Ein Frankfurt vs Augsburg at 20 April 2021
FC Koln vs RB Leipzig at 20 April 2021
Bayern Munich vs Leverkusen at 20 April 2021
Bielefeld vs Schalke 04 at 20 April 2021
Dortmund vs Union Berlin at 21 April 2021
Hertha vs Freiburg at 21 April 2021
Hoffenheim vs M’gladbach at 21 April 2021
Stuttgart vs Wolfsburg at 21 April 2021
Werder Bremen vs Mainz at 21 April 2021


Ein Frankfurt vs Augsburg at 20 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Ein Frankfurt and Augsburg for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 20 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Ein Frankfurt

1.45

1.94

-17.4

Draw

4.77

4.12

3.3

Augsburg

6.91

4.15

9.6

Over 2.5

1.50

1.79

-10.8

Under 2.5

2.57

2.27

5.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Augsburg, Under 2.5 (3.3 %, 9.6 %, 5.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Ein Frankfurt in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Ein Frankfurt scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ein Frankfurt in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Ein Frankfurt scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ein Frankfurt’s performance at home.
Ein Frankfurt, at home, had 8 wins, 6 draws, no defeats and gathered 30 points, 71.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Ein Frankfurt scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 13 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ein Frankfurt was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

M’gladbach

A

0

4

L

O

N

10 Apr

Wolfsburg

H

4

3

W

O

G

03 Apr

Dortmund

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Mar

Union Berlin

H

5

2

W

O

G

14 Mar

RB Leipzig

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Mar

Stuttgart

H

1

1

D

U

G

26 Feb

Werder Bremen

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Feb

Bayern Munich

H

2

1

W

O

G


Augsburg in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Augsburg scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Augsburg in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Augsburg scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Augsburg’s performance as a guest.
Augsburg, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Augsburg scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Augsburg was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Bielefeld

H

0

0

D

U

N

11 Apr

Schalke 04

A

0

1

L

U

N

03 Apr

Hoffenheim

H

2

1

W

O

G

21 Mar

Freiburg

A

0

2

L

U

N

12 Mar

M’gladbach

H

3

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Hertha

A

1

2

L

O

G

28 Feb

Mainz

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Feb

Leverkusen

H

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Ein Frankfurt is 0.312 and for the Augsburg is -0.163.
The home dynamic for the Ein Frankfurt is 0.502 and the dynamic as a guest for the Augsburg is -0.278.
The offensive ability for the Ein Frankfurt is 0.525 and for the Augsburg is -0.278.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Ein Frankfurt is -1 and for the Augsburg is -0.539.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Ein Frankfurt and the red line for guest team, Augsburg.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Ein Frankfurt

18%

31%

20%

31%

Augsburg

35%

34%

20%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ein Frankfurt to score 2.4 goals and Augsburg to score 0.75 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.15 goals in the game and the home team Ein Frankfurt to win by 1.65 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ein Frankfurt to score 1.64 goals and Augsburg to score 1.09 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.73 goals in the game and the home team Ein Frankfurt to win by 0.55 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.62

0-1

4.29

1

5.92

2-3

2.15

2

4.81

4+

3.31

3

3.89

Ov 1.5

1.30

4

5.56

Un 1.5

4.29

5

11.76

Ov 2.5

1.79

6+

27.03

Un 2.5

2.27

Gg

1.88

Ov 3.5

3.31

NoG

2.14

Un 3.5

1.43

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.16

3.64

3.82

2-3 goals

1.92

4.47

3.91

4+ goals

1.82

3.97

5.03

Ov 1.5

1.88

4.26

4.28

Un 1.5

2.16

3.64

3.82

Ov 2.5

1.64

7.36

3.91

Un 2.5

2.51

2.62

4.55

Ov 3.5

1.82

3.97

5.03

Un 3.5

1.99

4.15

3.88

Goal-Goal

2.30

2.96

4.40

No Goal

1.64

7.30

3.92

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.85

5.64

3.55

NG+Un 2.5

1.91

7.30

3.47


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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FC Koln vs RB Leipzig at 20 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between FC Koln and RB Leipzig for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 20 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

FC Koln

7.55

4.46

9.2

Draw

4.73

4.29

2.2

RB Leipzig

1.43

1.84

-15.6

Over 2.5

1.71

1.75

-1.3

Under 2.5

2.19

2.33

-2.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at FC Koln, Draw (9.2 %, 2.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

FC Koln in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Koln scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, FC Koln in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Koln scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at FC Koln’s performance at home.
FC Koln, at home, had one win, 5 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 19.0% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Koln scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of FC Koln was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Leverkusen

A

0

3

L

O

N

11 Apr

Mainz

H

2

3

L

O

G

03 Apr

Wolfsburg

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Dortmund

H

2

2

D

O

G

13 Mar

Union Berlin

A

1

2

L

O

G

07 Mar

Werder Bremen

H

1

1

D

U

G

27 Feb

Bayern Munich

A

1

5

L

O

G

20 Feb

Stuttgart

H

0

1

L

U

N


RB Leipzig in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, RB Leipzig scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, RB Leipzig in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, RB Leipzig scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at RB Leipzig’s performance as a guest.
RB Leipzig, as a guest, had 8 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, RB Leipzig scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of RB Leipzig was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Apr

Hoffenheim

H

0

0

D

U

N

10 Apr

Werder Bremen

A

4

1

W

O

G

03 Apr

Bayern Munich

H

0

1

L

U

N

19 Mar

Bielefeld

A

1

0

W

U

N

14 Mar

Ein Frankfurt

H

1

1

D

U

G

06 Mar

Freiburg

A

3

0

W

O

N

27 Feb

M’gladbach

H

3

2

W

O

G

21 Feb

Hertha

A

3

0

W

O

N


The form score for the FC Koln is -0.972 and for the RB Leipzig is 0.311.
The home dynamic for the FC Koln is -0.756 and the dynamic as a guest for the RB Leipzig is 0.656.
The offensive ability for the FC Koln is 0.103 and for the RB Leipzig is 0.13.
Finally, the defensive ability for the FC Koln is -1 and for the RB Leipzig is 0.157.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, FC Koln and the red line for guest team, RB Leipzig.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

FC Koln

34%

40%

13%

12%

RB Leipzig

21%

22%

24%

33%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) FC Koln to score 0.64 goals and RB Leipzig to score 2.16 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.8 goals in the game and the guest team RB Leipzig to win by 1.52 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) FC Koln to score 1.04 goals and RB Leipzig to score 1.69 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.73 goals in the game and the guest team RB Leipzig to win by 0.65 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.29

0-1

4.37

1

6.29

2-3

2.16

2

5.03

4+

3.27

3

3.79

Ov 1.5

1.30

4

5.21

Un 1.5

4.37

5

13.70

Ov 2.5

1.75

6+

24.39

Un 2.5

2.34

Gg

1.92

Ov 3.5

3.27

NoG

2.10

Un 3.5

1.45

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.76

3.27

3.01

2-3 goals

5.65

5.14

1.59

4+ goals

5.28

4.19

1.75

Ov 1.5

5.49

4.72

1.65

Un 1.5

2.76

3.27

3.01

Ov 2.5

5.04

7.81

1.48

Un 2.5

3.89

2.67

2.71

Ov 3.5

5.28

4.19

1.75

Un 3.5

4.19

4.32

1.89

Goal-Goal

6.00

3.20

1.92

No Goal

3.50

6.80

1.76

G-G+Ov 2.5

4.97

5.92

1.59

NG+Un 2.5

3.07

6.80

2.14


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Bayern Munich vs Leverkusen at 20 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bayern Munich and Leverkusen for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 20 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Bayern Munich

1.44

1.92

-17.4

Draw

5.09

4.15

4.5

Leverkusen

6.72

4.20

8.9

Over 2.5

1.37

1.80

-17.4

Under 2.5

3.05

2.26

11.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Leverkusen, Under 2.5 (4.5 %, 8.9 %, 11.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Bayern Munich in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Bayern Munich scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bayern Munich in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Bayern Munich scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bayern Munich’s performance at home.
Bayern Munich, at home, had 10 wins, 4 draws, no defeats and gathered 34 points, 81.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Bayern Munich scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bayern Munich was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Wolfsburg

A

3

2

W

O

G

10 Apr

Union Berlin

H

1

1

D

U

G

03 Apr

RB Leipzig

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Stuttgart

H

4

0

W

O

N

13 Mar

Werder Bremen

A

3

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Dortmund

H

4

2

W

O

G

27 Feb

FC Koln

H

5

1

W

O

G

20 Feb

Ein Frankfurt

A

1

2

L

O

G


Leverkusen in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leverkusen in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leverkusen’s performance as a guest.
Leverkusen, as a guest, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 52.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leverkusen was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

FC Koln

H

3

0

W

O

N

12 Apr

Hoffenheim

A

0

0

D

U

N

03 Apr

Schalke 04

H

2

1

W

O

G

21 Mar

Hertha

A

0

3

L

O

N

14 Mar

Bielefeld

H

1

2

L

O

G

06 Mar

M’gladbach

A

1

0

W

U

N

28 Feb

Freiburg

H

1

2

L

O

G

21 Feb

Augsburg

A

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Bayern Munich is 0.935 and for the Leverkusen is 0.2.
The home dynamic for the Bayern Munich is 0.774 and the dynamic as a guest for the Leverkusen is 0.378.
The offensive ability for the Bayern Munich is 1 and for the Leverkusen is 0.191.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Bayern Munich is -0.067 and for the Leverkusen is 0.217.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Bayern Munich and the red line for guest team, Leverkusen.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Bayern Munich

18%

31%

19%

31%

Leverkusen

36%

32%

20%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bayern Munich to score 2.66 goals and Leverkusen to score 0.83 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.49 goals in the game and the home team Bayern Munich to win by 1.83 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bayern Munich to score 1.64 goals and Leverkusen to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.72 goals in the game and the home team Bayern Munich to win by 0.56 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.15

0-1

4.20

1

5.81

2-3

2.16

2

4.88

4+

3.36

3

3.86

Ov 1.5

1.31

4

5.71

Un 1.5

4.20

5

11.76

Ov 2.5

1.80

6+

26.32

Un 2.5

2.26

Gg

1.92

Ov 3.5

3.36

NoG

2.08

Un 3.5

1.42

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.11

3.61

4.03

2-3 goals

1.89

4.69

3.90

4+ goals

1.84

3.92

4.97

Ov 1.5

1.87

4.35

4.26

Un 1.5

2.11

3.61

4.03

Ov 2.5

1.65

7.33

3.90

Un 2.5

2.42

2.68

4.66

Ov 3.5

1.84

3.92

4.97

Un 3.5

1.96

4.25

3.94

Goal-Goal

2.32

2.97

4.30

No Goal

1.62

7.27

4.10

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.88

5.54

3.48

NG+Un 2.5

1.88

7.27

3.62


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Bielefeld vs Schalke 04 at 20 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bielefeld and Schalke 04 for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 20 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Bielefeld

1.79

1.86

-2.1

Draw

3.70

4.03

-2.2

Schalke 04

4.94

4.67

1.2

Over 2.5

2.11

1.84

7.0

Under 2.5

1.77

2.19

-10.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Schalke 04, Over 2.5 (1.2 %, 7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Bielefeld in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Bielefeld scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bielefeld in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Bielefeld scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bielefeld’s performance at home.
Bielefeld, at home, had 5 wins, one draw, 9 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 35.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Bielefeld scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bielefeld was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Augsburg

A

0

0

D

U

N

09 Apr

Freiburg

H

1

0

W

U

N

03 Apr

Mainz

A

1

1

D

U

G

19 Mar

RB Leipzig

H

0

1

L

U

N

14 Mar

Leverkusen

A

2

1

W

O

G

10 Mar

Werder Bremen

H

0

2

L

U

N

07 Mar

Union Berlin

H

0

0

D

U

N

27 Feb

Dortmund

A

0

3

L

O

N


Schalke 04 in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Schalke 04 scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Schalke 04 in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Schalke 04 scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Schalke 04’s performance as a guest.
Schalke 04, as a guest, had no wins, 4 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 9.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Schalke 04 scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Schalke 04 was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Freiburg

A

0

4

L

O

N

11 Apr

Augsburg

H

1

0

W

U

N

03 Apr

Leverkusen

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Mar

M’gladbach

H

0

3

L

O

N

13 Mar

Wolfsburg

A

0

5

L

O

N

05 Mar

Mainz

H

0

0

D

U

N

27 Feb

Stuttgart

A

1

5

L

O

G

20 Feb

Dortmund

H

0

4

L

O

N


The form score for the Bielefeld is -0.042 and for the Schalke 04 is -0.496.
The home dynamic for the Bielefeld is -0.484 and the dynamic as a guest for the Schalke 04 is -0.967.
The offensive ability for the Bielefeld is -0.193 and for the Schalke 04 is -0.504.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Bielefeld is 0.067 and for the Schalke 04 is -0.243.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Bielefeld and the red line for guest team, Schalke 04.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Bielefeld

15%

29%

34%

22%

Schalke 04

32%

40%

18%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bielefeld to score 1.59 goals and Schalke 04 to score 0.78 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and the home team Bielefeld to win by 0.81 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bielefeld to score 1.63 goals and Schalke 04 to score 1.05 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.68 goals in the game and the home team Bielefeld to win by 0.58 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

20.83

0-1

4.95

1

6.49

2-3

1.89

2

3.95

4+

3.70

3

3.64

Ov 1.5

1.25

4

5.62

Un 1.5

4.95

5

13.89

Ov 2.5

1.83

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

2.20

Gg

1.73

Ov 3.5

3.70