# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Swansea vs QPR at 20 April 2021**** Sheffield Weds vs Blackburn at 20 April 2021**** Preston vs Derby at 20 April 2021**** Norwich vs Watford at 20 April 2021**** Brentford vs Cardiff at 20 April 2021**** Rotherham vs Middlesbrough at 21 April 2021**** Huddersfield vs Barnsley at 21 April 2021**** Stoke vs Coventry at 21 April 2021**** Luton vs Reading at 21 April 2021**** Wycombe vs Bristol City at 21 April 2021**** Birmingham vs Nott’m Forest at 21 April 2021**** Millwall vs Bournemouth at 21 April 2021**

###
Swansea vs QPR at 20 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Swansea** and **QPR** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **20 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Swansea |
1.98 |
1.96 |
0.5 |

Draw |
3.45 |
3.80 |
-2.7 |

QPR |
3.93 |
4.39 |
-2.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.07 |
2.08 |
-0.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.77 |
1.92 |
-4.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Swansea (0.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Swansea** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Swansea scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Swansea** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Swansea** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Swansea’s performance** at home**.

Swansea,** at home**, had 11 wins, 6 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 39 points, 61.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Swansea scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 15 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Swansea was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Apr |
Wycombe |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

13 Apr |
Sheffield Weds |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Millwall |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

05 Apr |
Preston |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Birmingham |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Cardiff |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Mar |
Bournemouth |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

13 Mar |
Luton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**QPR** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, QPR** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **QPR** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, QPR** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at QPR’s performance** as a guest**.

QPR,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 7 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 39.7% of the total available.

In these matches, QPR scored in 17 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 13 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of QPR was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Apr |
Middlesbrough |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Apr |
Rotherham |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Sheffield Weds |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Nott’m Forest |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
Coventry |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

20 Mar |
Reading |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Mar |
Millwall |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Huddersfield |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Swansea** is **-0.2** and for the **QPR** is **0.17.**

The home dynamic for the **Swansea** is **0.267** and the dynamic as a guest for the **QPR** is **-0.156.**

The offensive ability for the **Swansea** is **-0.076** and for the **QPR** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Swansea** is **0.005** and for the **QPR** is **-0.652.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Swansea** and the red line for guest team, **QPR. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Swansea |
19% |
33% |
25% |
22% |

QPR |
35% |
42% |
15% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Swansea** to score **1.48 ** goals and **QPR** to score **0.91 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.39** goals in the game and the home team **Swansea ** to win by **0.57** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Swansea** to score **1.5 ** goals and **QPR** to score **0.98 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.48** goals in the game and the home team **Swansea ** to win by **0.52** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.93 |
0-1 |
3.79 |

1 |
5.08 |
2-3 |
1.98 |

2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
4.31 |

3 |
4.03 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.33 |
Un 1.5 |
3.79 |

5 |
18.18 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.08 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.92 |

Gg |
1.89 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.31 |

NoG |
2.12 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.28 |
3.94 |
3.26 |

2-3 goals |
1.87 |
3.60 |
5.36 |

4+ goals |
1.89 |
4.14 |
4.38 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.87 |
3.76 |
5.01 |

Un 1.5 |
2.28 |
3.94 |
3.26 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.57 |
8.57 |
4.03 |

Un 2.5 |
2.55 |
2.51 |
4.77 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.89 |
4.14 |
4.38 |

Un 3.5 |
1.99 |
3.71 |
4.39 |

Goal-Goal |
2.30 |
2.69 |
5.18 |

No Goal |
1.69 |
7.04 |
3.75 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.69 |
6.93 |
3.80 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.86 |
7.04 |
3.49 |

####
Go to Top

###
Sheffield Weds vs Blackburn at 20 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Sheffield Weds** and **Blackburn** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **20 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Sheffield Weds |
2.62 |
2.54 |
1.2 |

Draw |
3.29 |
3.72 |
-3.5 |

Blackburn |
2.73 |
2.97 |
-3.0 |

Over 2.5 |
2.13 |
2.15 |
-0.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.73 |
1.87 |
-4.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Sheffield Weds (1.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Sheffield Weds** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sheffield Weds** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sheffield Weds’s performance** at home**.

Sheffield Weds,** at home**, had 7 wins, 7 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 15 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sheffield Weds was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Apr |
Bristol City |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Apr |
Swansea |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
QPR |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Cardiff |
H |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

02 Apr |
Watford |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Barnsley |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Mar |
Huddersfield |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Mar |
Norwich |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Blackburn** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Blackburn scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Blackburn** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Blackburn scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Blackburn’s performance** as a guest**.

Blackburn,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 34.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Blackburn scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Blackburn was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Apr |
Derby |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Cardiff |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Bournemouth |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Wycombe |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Norwich |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Mar |
Bristol City |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 Mar |
Brentford |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Swansea |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **Sheffield Weds** is **-0.349** and for the **Blackburn** is **-0.133.**

The home dynamic for the **Sheffield Weds** is **-0.05** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Blackburn** is **-0.122.**

The offensive ability for the **Sheffield Weds** is **0.193** and for the **Blackburn** is **-0.104.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Sheffield Weds** is **-0.554** and for the **Blackburn** is **-0.678.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Sheffield Weds** and the red line for guest team, **Blackburn. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Sheffield Weds |
30% |
31% |
21% |
18% |

Blackburn |
33% |
32% |
20% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Sheffield Weds** to score **1.19 ** goals and **Blackburn** to score **1.15 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.34** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.04** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Sheffield Weds** to score **1.26 ** goals and **Blackburn** to score **1.15 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.41** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.11** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.90 |
0-1 |
3.30 |

1 |
4.95 |
2-3 |
2.15 |

2 |
4.31 |
4+ |
4.29 |

3 |
4.29 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.43 |

4 |
6.99 |
Un 1.5 |
3.30 |

5 |
15.38 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.15 |

6+ |
40.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.87 |

Gg |
2.15 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.29 |

NoG |
1.87 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.91 |
3.00 |
3.09 |

2-3 goals |
2.37 |
4.60 |
2.77 |

4+ goals |
2.48 |
3.48 |
3.24 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.41 |
4.15 |
2.91 |

Un 1.5 |
2.91 |
3.00 |
3.09 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.11 |
6.96 |
2.62 |

Un 2.5 |
3.09 |
2.65 |
3.34 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.48 |
3.48 |
3.24 |

Un 3.5 |
2.56 |
3.80 |
2.89 |

Goal-Goal |
2.88 |
2.77 |
3.43 |

No Goal |
2.31 |
5.30 |
2.65 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.25 |
5.45 |
2.68 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.51 |
5.30 |
2.71 |

####
Go to Top

###
Preston vs Derby at 20 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Preston** and **Derby** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **20 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Preston |
2.85 |
2.12 |
12.1 |

Draw |
3.17 |
3.65 |
-4.1 |

Derby |
2.58 |
3.94 |
-13.4 |

Over 2.5 |
2.31 |
2.23 |
1.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.61 |
1.81 |
-6.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Preston, Over 2.5 (12.1 %, 1.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Preston** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Preston scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Preston** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Preston scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Preston’s performance** at home**.

Preston,** at home**, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 31.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Preston scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 16 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Preston was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Apr |
Stoke |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Brentford |
H |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

05 Apr |
Swansea |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Norwich |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Mar |
Luton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Mar |
Middlesbrough |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Wycombe |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Bournemouth |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Derby** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Derby scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Derby** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Derby scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Derby’s performance** as a guest**.

Derby,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 12 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 30.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Derby scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 14 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Derby was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Apr |
Blackburn |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Norwich |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
Reading |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
Luton |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Stoke |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Mar |
Brentford |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Millwall |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Mar |
Barnsley |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Preston** is **-0.46** and for the **Derby** is **-0.541.**

The home dynamic for the **Preston** is **-0.303** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Derby** is **0.022.**

The offensive ability for the **Preston** is **-0.614** and for the **Derby** is **0.217.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Preston** is **0.036** and for the **Derby** is **-0.626.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Preston** and the red line for guest team, **Derby. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Preston |
23% |
35% |
20% |
21% |

Derby |
37% |
39% |
13% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Preston** to score **1.06 ** goals and **Derby** to score **1.14 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.2** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.08** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Preston** to score **1.39 ** goals and **Derby** to score **0.98 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.37** goals in the game and the home team **Preston ** to win by **0.41** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.76 |
0-1 |
3.27 |

1 |
4.52 |
2-3 |
2.11 |

2 |
4.08 |
4+ |
4.55 |

3 |
4.37 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.44 |

4 |
6.76 |
Un 1.5 |
3.27 |

5 |
20.00 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.23 |

6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
1.81 |

Gg |
2.06 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.55 |

NoG |
1.95 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.35 |
3.60 |
3.36 |

2-3 goals |
2.04 |
3.41 |
4.60 |

4+ goals |
1.98 |
4.49 |
3.67 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.02 |
3.69 |
4.26 |

Un 1.5 |
2.35 |
3.60 |
3.36 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.68 |
9.16 |
3.40 |

Un 2.5 |
2.69 |
2.46 |
4.52 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.98 |
4.49 |
3.67 |

Un 3.5 |
2.15 |
3.48 |
4.02 |

Goal-Goal |
2.54 |
2.59 |
4.54 |

No Goal |
1.82 |
6.05 |
3.50 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.82 |
7.08 |
3.24 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.01 |
6.05 |
3.38 |

####
Go to Top

###
Norwich vs Watford at 20 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Norwich** and **Watford** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **20 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Norwich |
2.40 |
1.99 |
8.6 |

Draw |
3.34 |
3.92 |
-4.4 |

Watford |
2.97 |
4.12 |
-9.4 |

Over 2.5 |
1.91 |
2.09 |
-4.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.90 |
1.92 |
-0.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Norwich (8.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Norwich** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Norwich** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Norwich** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Norwich** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Norwich’s performance** at home**.

Norwich,** at home**, had 13 wins, 6 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 45 points, 71.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Norwich scored in 18 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Norwich was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Apr |
Bournemouth |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Derby |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Apr |
Huddersfield |
H |
7 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

02 Apr |
Preston |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Mar |
Blackburn |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Mar |
Nott’m Forest |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

14 Mar |
Sheffield Weds |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Luton |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

**Watford** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Watford scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Watford** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Watford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Watford’s performance** as a guest**.

Watford,** as a guest**, had 7 wins, 8 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 29 points, 46.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Watford scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 16 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Watford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Apr |
Luton |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Apr |
Reading |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
Middlesbrough |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Apr |
Sheffield Weds |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Birmingham |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

16 Mar |
Rotherham |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Cardiff |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Nott’m Forest |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Norwich** is **0.284** and for the **Watford** is **0.43.**

The home dynamic for the **Norwich** is **0.285** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Watford** is **-0.022.**

The offensive ability for the **Norwich** is **1** and for the **Watford** is **0.539.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Norwich** is **0.378** and for the **Watford** is **0.157.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Norwich** and the red line for guest team, **Watford. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Norwich |
23% |
29% |
26% |
22% |

Watford |
38% |
37% |
14% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Norwich** to score **1.36 ** goals and **Watford** to score **1.17 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.53** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.19** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Norwich** to score **1.47 ** goals and **Watford** to score **0.98 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.45** goals in the game and the home team **Norwich ** to win by **0.49** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.36 |
0-1 |
3.52 |

1 |
5.10 |
2-3 |
2.06 |

2 |
4.18 |
4+ |
4.27 |

3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
6.62 |
Un 1.5 |
3.52 |

5 |
16.95 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.08 |

6+ |
41.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.91 |

Gg |
2.09 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.27 |

NoG |
1.90 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.61 |