2021 04 20 Championship (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Swansea vs QPR at 20 April 2021
Sheffield Weds vs Blackburn at 20 April 2021
Preston vs Derby at 20 April 2021
Norwich vs Watford at 20 April 2021
Brentford vs Cardiff at 20 April 2021
Rotherham vs Middlesbrough at 21 April 2021
Huddersfield vs Barnsley at 21 April 2021
Stoke vs Coventry at 21 April 2021
Luton vs Reading at 21 April 2021
Wycombe vs Bristol City at 21 April 2021
Birmingham vs Nott’m Forest at 21 April 2021
Millwall vs Bournemouth at 21 April 2021


Swansea vs QPR at 20 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Swansea and QPR for Championship (England), which will take place on 20 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Swansea

1.98

1.96

0.5

Draw

3.45

3.80

-2.7

QPR

3.93

4.39

-2.7

Over 2.5

2.07

2.08

-0.2

Under 2.5

1.77

1.92

-4.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Swansea (0.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Swansea in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Swansea scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Swansea in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Swansea scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Swansea’s performance at home.
Swansea, at home, had 11 wins, 6 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 39 points, 61.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Swansea scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 15 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Swansea was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Wycombe

H

2

2

D

O

G

13 Apr

Sheffield Weds

A

2

0

W

U

N

10 Apr

Millwall

A

3

0

W

O

N

05 Apr

Preston

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Apr

Birmingham

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Cardiff

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Mar

Bournemouth

A

0

3

L

O

N

13 Mar

Luton

A

1

0

W

U

N


QPR in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, QPR scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, QPR in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, QPR scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at QPR’s performance as a guest.
QPR, as a guest, had 6 wins, 7 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 39.7% of the total available.
In these matches, QPR scored in 17 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 13 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of QPR was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Middlesbrough

A

2

1

W

O

G

13 Apr

Rotherham

A

1

3

L

O

G

10 Apr

Sheffield Weds

H

4

1

W

O

G

05 Apr

Nott’m Forest

A

1

3

L

O

G

02 Apr

Coventry

H

3

0

W

O

N

20 Mar

Reading

A

1

1

D

U

G

17 Mar

Millwall

H

3

2

W

O

G

13 Mar

Huddersfield

H

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Swansea is -0.2 and for the QPR is 0.17.
The home dynamic for the Swansea is 0.267 and the dynamic as a guest for the QPR is -0.156.
The offensive ability for the Swansea is -0.076 and for the QPR is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Swansea is 0.005 and for the QPR is -0.652.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Swansea and the red line for guest team, QPR.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Swansea

19%

33%

25%

22%

QPR

35%

42%

15%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Swansea to score 1.48 goals and QPR to score 0.91 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and the home team Swansea to win by 0.57 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Swansea to score 1.5 goals and QPR to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the home team Swansea to win by 0.52 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.93

0-1

3.79

1

5.08

2-3

1.98

2

3.91

4+

4.31

3

4.03

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.33

Un 1.5

3.79

5

18.18

Ov 2.5

2.08

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.92

Gg

1.89

Ov 3.5

4.31

NoG

2.12

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.28

3.94

3.26

2-3 goals

1.87

3.60

5.36

4+ goals

1.89

4.14

4.38

Ov 1.5

1.87

3.76

5.01

Un 1.5

2.28

3.94

3.26

Ov 2.5

1.57

8.57

4.03

Un 2.5

2.55

2.51

4.77

Ov 3.5

1.89

4.14

4.38

Un 3.5

1.99

3.71

4.39

Goal-Goal

2.30

2.69

5.18

No Goal

1.69

7.04

3.75

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.69

6.93

3.80

NG+Un 2.5

1.86

7.04

3.49


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Sheffield Weds vs Blackburn at 20 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sheffield Weds and Blackburn for Championship (England), which will take place on 20 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sheffield Weds

2.62

2.54

1.2

Draw

3.29

3.72

-3.5

Blackburn

2.73

2.97

-3.0

Over 2.5

2.13

2.15

-0.4

Under 2.5

1.73

1.87

-4.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Sheffield Weds (1.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sheffield Weds in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sheffield Weds in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sheffield Weds’s performance at home.
Sheffield Weds, at home, had 7 wins, 7 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 15 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sheffield Weds was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Bristol City

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Apr

Swansea

H

0

2

L

U

N

10 Apr

QPR

A

1

4

L

O

G

05 Apr

Cardiff

H

5

0

W

O

N

02 Apr

Watford

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Barnsley

A

2

1

W

O

G

17 Mar

Huddersfield

H

1

1

D

U

G

14 Mar

Norwich

H

1

2

L

O

G


Blackburn in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackburn scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Blackburn in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackburn scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Blackburn’s performance as a guest.
Blackburn, as a guest, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 34.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackburn scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Blackburn was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Apr

Derby

H

2

1

W

O

G

10 Apr

Cardiff

A

2

2

D

O

G

05 Apr

Bournemouth

H

0

2

L

U

N

02 Apr

Wycombe

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Norwich

A

1

1

D

U

G

17 Mar

Bristol City

H

0

0

D

U

N

12 Mar

Brentford

H

0

1

L

U

N

09 Mar

Swansea

H

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Sheffield Weds is -0.349 and for the Blackburn is -0.133.
The home dynamic for the Sheffield Weds is -0.05 and the dynamic as a guest for the Blackburn is -0.122.
The offensive ability for the Sheffield Weds is 0.193 and for the Blackburn is -0.104.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Sheffield Weds is -0.554 and for the Blackburn is -0.678.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sheffield Weds and the red line for guest team, Blackburn.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sheffield Weds

30%

31%

21%

18%

Blackburn

33%

32%

20%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sheffield Weds to score 1.19 goals and Blackburn to score 1.15 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.04 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sheffield Weds to score 1.26 goals and Blackburn to score 1.15 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.90

0-1

3.30

1

4.95

2-3

2.15

2

4.31

4+

4.29

3

4.29

Ov 1.5

1.43

4

6.99

Un 1.5

3.30

5

15.38

Ov 2.5

2.15

6+

40.00

Un 2.5

1.87

Gg

2.15

Ov 3.5

4.29

NoG

1.87

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.91

3.00

3.09

2-3 goals

2.37

4.60

2.77

4+ goals

2.48

3.48

3.24

Ov 1.5

2.41

4.15

2.91

Un 1.5

2.91

3.00

3.09

Ov 2.5

2.11

6.96

2.62

Un 2.5

3.09

2.65

3.34

Ov 3.5

2.48

3.48

3.24

Un 3.5

2.56

3.80

2.89

Goal-Goal

2.88

2.77

3.43

No Goal

2.31

5.30

2.65

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.25

5.45

2.68

NG+Un 2.5

2.51

5.30

2.71


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Preston vs Derby at 20 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Preston and Derby for Championship (England), which will take place on 20 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Preston

2.85

2.12

12.1

Draw

3.17

3.65

-4.1

Derby

2.58

3.94

-13.4

Over 2.5

2.31

2.23

1.6

Under 2.5

1.61

1.81

-6.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Preston, Over 2.5 (12.1 %, 1.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Preston in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Preston scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Preston in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Preston scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Preston’s performance at home.
Preston, at home, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 31.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Preston scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 16 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Preston was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Stoke

A

0

0

D

U

N

10 Apr

Brentford

H

0

5

L

O

N

05 Apr

Swansea

A

1

0

W

U

N

02 Apr

Norwich

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Mar

Luton

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Mar

Middlesbrough

A

0

2

L

U

N

13 Mar

Wycombe

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Mar

Bournemouth

H

1

1

D

U

G


Derby in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Derby scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Derby in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Derby scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Derby’s performance as a guest.
Derby, as a guest, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 12 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 30.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Derby scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 14 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Derby was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Apr

Blackburn

A

1

2

L

O

G

10 Apr

Norwich

H

0

1

L

U

N

05 Apr

Reading

A

1

3

L

O

G

02 Apr

Luton

H

2

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Stoke

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 Mar

Brentford

H

2

2

D

O

G

13 Mar

Millwall

H

0

1

L

U

N

10 Mar

Barnsley

A

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Preston is -0.46 and for the Derby is -0.541.
The home dynamic for the Preston is -0.303 and the dynamic as a guest for the Derby is 0.022.
The offensive ability for the Preston is -0.614 and for the Derby is 0.217.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Preston is 0.036 and for the Derby is -0.626.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Preston and the red line for guest team, Derby.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Preston

23%

35%

20%

21%

Derby

37%

39%

13%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Preston to score 1.06 goals and Derby to score 1.14 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.2 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.08 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Preston to score 1.39 goals and Derby to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and the home team Preston to win by 0.41 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.76

0-1

3.27

1

4.52

2-3

2.11

2

4.08

4+

4.55

3

4.37

Ov 1.5

1.44

4

6.76

Un 1.5

3.27

5

20.00

Ov 2.5

2.23

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

1.81

Gg

2.06

Ov 3.5

4.55

NoG

1.95

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.35

3.60

3.36

2-3 goals

2.04

3.41

4.60

4+ goals

1.98

4.49

3.67

Ov 1.5

2.02

3.69

4.26

Un 1.5

2.35

3.60

3.36

Ov 2.5

1.68

9.16

3.40

Un 2.5

2.69

2.46

4.52

Ov 3.5

1.98

4.49

3.67

Un 3.5

2.15

3.48

4.02

Goal-Goal

2.54

2.59

4.54

No Goal

1.82

6.05

3.50

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.82

7.08

3.24

NG+Un 2.5

2.01

6.05

3.38


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Norwich vs Watford at 20 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Norwich and Watford for Championship (England), which will take place on 20 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Norwich

2.40

1.99

8.6

Draw

3.34

3.92

-4.4

Watford

2.97

4.12

-9.4

Over 2.5

1.91

2.09

-4.5

Under 2.5

1.90

1.92

-0.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Norwich (8.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Norwich in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Norwich scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Norwich in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Norwich scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Norwich’s performance at home.
Norwich, at home, had 13 wins, 6 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 45 points, 71.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Norwich scored in 18 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Norwich was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Bournemouth

H

1

3

L

O

G

10 Apr

Derby

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Apr

Huddersfield

H

7

0

W

O

N

02 Apr

Preston

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Mar

Blackburn

H

1

1

D

U

G

17 Mar

Nott’m Forest

A

2

0

W

U

N

14 Mar

Sheffield Weds

A

2

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Luton

H

3

0

W

O

N


Watford in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Watford in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Watford’s performance as a guest.
Watford, as a guest, had 7 wins, 8 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 29 points, 46.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 16 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Watford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Luton

A

0

1

L

U

N

09 Apr

Reading

H

2

0

W

U

N

05 Apr

Middlesbrough

A

1

1

D

U

G

02 Apr

Sheffield Weds

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Birmingham

H

3

0

W

O

N

16 Mar

Rotherham

A

4

1

W

O

G

13 Mar

Cardiff

A

2

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Nott’m Forest

H

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Norwich is 0.284 and for the Watford is 0.43.
The home dynamic for the Norwich is 0.285 and the dynamic as a guest for the Watford is -0.022.
The offensive ability for the Norwich is 1 and for the Watford is 0.539.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Norwich is 0.378 and for the Watford is 0.157.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Norwich and the red line for guest team, Watford.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Norwich

23%

29%

26%

22%

Watford

38%

37%

14%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Norwich to score 1.36 goals and Watford to score 1.17 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Norwich to score 1.47 goals and Watford to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the home team Norwich to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.36

0-1

3.52

1

5.10

2-3

2.06

2

4.18

4+

4.27

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.62

Un 1.5

3.52

5

16.95

Ov 2.5

2.08

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

1.91

Gg

2.09

Ov 3.5

4.27

NoG

1.90

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.61