2021 04 20 Conference (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Boreham Wood vs Barnet at 20 April 2021
Chesterfield vs Halifax at 20 April 2021
Wealdstone vs Maidenhead at 20 April 2021
Woking vs Torquay at 20 April 2021
Aldershot vs King’s Lynn at 20 April 2021


Boreham Wood vs Barnet at 20 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Boreham Wood and Barnet for Conference (England), which will take place on 20 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Boreham Wood

1.44

1.91

-17.1

Draw

4.41

4.08

1.8

Barnet

7.26

4.29

9.5

Over 2.5

1.96

1.95

0.3

Under 2.5

1.88

2.05

-4.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Barnet, Over 2.5 (1.8 %, 9.5 %, 0.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Boreham Wood in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Boreham Wood scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Boreham Wood in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Boreham Wood scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Boreham Wood’s performance at home.
Boreham Wood, at home, had 4 wins, 8 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Boreham Wood scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Boreham Wood was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Yeovil

A

0

1

L

U

N

13 Apr

Chesterfield

A

0

0

D

U

N

10 Apr

Wealdstone

H

3

1

W

O

G

05 Apr

Hartlepool

H

2

2

D

O

G

02 Apr

Sutton

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Mar

Aldershot

A

3

3

D

O

G

16 Mar

Notts County

H

2

2

D

O

G

13 Mar

Torquay

H

0

0

D

U

N


Barnet in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnet scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Barnet in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnet scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Barnet’s performance as a guest.
Barnet, as a guest, had one win, 3 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 13.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnet scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Barnet was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Aldershot

H

3

1

W

O

G

10 Apr

Maidenhead

A

0

0

D

U

N

05 Apr

Wealdstone

A

1

5

L

O

G

02 Apr

Solihull

H

0

2

L

U

N

27 Mar

Yeovil

A

1

3

L

O

G

20 Mar

Chesterfield

H

0

2

L

U

N

16 Mar

Stockport

A

1

2

L

O

G

13 Mar

Bromley

A

2

2

D

O

G


The form score for the Boreham Wood is -0.116 and for the Barnet is -0.422.
The home dynamic for the Boreham Wood is -0.285 and the dynamic as a guest for the Barnet is -1.
The offensive ability for the Boreham Wood is -0.283 and for the Barnet is -0.13.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Boreham Wood is -0.067 and for the Barnet is -0.565.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Boreham Wood and the red line for guest team, Barnet.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Boreham Wood

23%

24%

26%

26%

Barnet

36%

37%

18%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Boreham Wood to score 1.91 goals and Barnet to score 0.59 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Boreham Wood to win by 1.32 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Boreham Wood to score 1.56 goals and Barnet to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Boreham Wood to win by 0.58 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.90

0-1

3.86

1

5.71

2-3

2.06

2

4.35

4+

3.92

3

3.91

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.06

Un 1.5

3.86

5

14.49

Ov 2.5

1.96

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

2.04

Gg

2.05

Ov 3.5

3.92

NoG

1.95

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.88

3.08

3.05

2-3 goals

1.69

5.34

4.54

4+ goals

1.77

3.64

6.22

Ov 1.5

1.72

4.60

5.01

Un 1.5

2.88

3.08

3.05

Ov 2.5

1.52

7.30

4.87

Un 2.5

2.63

2.79

3.82

Ov 3.5

1.77

3.64

6.22

Un 3.5

1.97

4.26

3.88

Goal-Goal

2.02

3.03

5.67

No Goal

1.82

6.10

3.48

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.65

5.67

4.62

NG+Un 2.5

2.14

6.10

3.11


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Chesterfield vs Halifax at 20 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Chesterfield and Halifax for Conference (England), which will take place on 20 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Chesterfield

2.12

2.13

-0.2

Draw

3.23

3.89

-5.3

Halifax

3.29

3.66

-3.1

Over 2.5

2.09

1.98

2.7

Under 2.5

1.69

2.02

-9.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Over 2.5 (2.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Chesterfield in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Chesterfield in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Chesterfield’s performance at home.
Chesterfield, at home, had 8 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 54.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Chesterfield was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Bromley

H

1

2

L

O

G

13 Apr

Boreham Wood

H

0

0

D

U

N

10 Apr

King’s Lynn

A

2

1

W

O

G

02 Apr

Eastleigh

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Mar

Weymouth

H

1

0

W

U

N

23 Mar

Aldershot

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Barnet

A

2

0

W

U

N

16 Mar

Sutton

H

0

1

L

U

N


Halifax in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Halifax in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Halifax’s performance as a guest.
Halifax, as a guest, had 7 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 49.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Halifax was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

King’s Lynn

H

4

2

W

O

G

13 Apr

Wrexham

H

0

4

L

O

N

10 Apr

Altrincham

A

1

0

W

U

N

05 Apr

Weymouth

H

3

2

W

O

G

27 Mar

Sutton

H

2

2

D

O

G

20 Mar

Eastleigh

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 Mar

Aldershot

H

1

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Solihull

H

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Chesterfield is 0.442 and for the Halifax is 0.207.
The home dynamic for the Chesterfield is 0.249 and the dynamic as a guest for the Halifax is -0.144.
The offensive ability for the Chesterfield is 0.552 and for the Halifax is 0.243.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Chesterfield is 0.762 and for the Halifax is -0.591.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Chesterfield and the red line for guest team, Halifax.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Chesterfield

24%

29%

25%

22%

Halifax

33%

36%

21%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Chesterfield to score 1.34 goals and Halifax to score 0.98 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and the home team Chesterfield to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Chesterfield to score 1.46 goals and Halifax to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Chesterfield to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

3.86

1

5.52

2-3

2.06

2

4.24

4+

3.89

3

4.02

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.17

Un 1.5

3.86

5

13.89

Ov 2.5

1.98

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.02

Gg

1.95

Ov 3.5

3.89

NoG

2.05

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.73

3.32

3.01

2-3 goals

1.96

4.66

3.65

4+ goals

2.02

3.43

4.67

Ov 1.5

1.98

4.15

3.95

Un 1.5

2.73

3.32

3.01

Ov 2.5

1.73

6.75

3.64

Un 2.5

2.78

2.72

3.67

Ov 3.5

2.02

3.43

4.67

Un 3.5

2.17

4.09

3.40

Goal-Goal

2.34

2.87

4.46

No Goal

1.94

6.26

3.07

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.87

5.45

3.56

NG+Un 2.5

2.20

6.26

2.90


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Wealdstone vs Maidenhead at 20 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Wealdstone and Maidenhead for Conference (England), which will take place on 20 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Wealdstone

2.57

2.56

0.2

Draw

3.55

3.72

-1.3

Maidenhead

2.51

2.94

-5.8

Over 2.5

1.69

2.02

-9.7

Under 2.5

2.12

1.98

3.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Wealdstone, Under 2.5 (0.2 %, 3.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Wealdstone in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wealdstone in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Wealdstone’s performance at home.
Wealdstone, at home, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 47.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wealdstone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Hartlepool

H

2

7

L

O

G

10 Apr

Boreham Wood

A

1

3

L

O

G

05 Apr

Barnet

H

5

1

W

O

G

02 Apr

Bromley

A

2

2

D

O

G

30 Mar

Solihull

A

0

3

L

O

N

23 Mar

Woking

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Weymouth

A

0

4

L

O

N

13 Mar

Notts County

H

0

1

L

U

N


Maidenhead in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Maidenhead in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Maidenhead’s performance as a guest.
Maidenhead, as a guest, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Maidenhead was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Stockport

A

2

2

D

O

G

10 Apr

Barnet

H

0

0

D

U

N

05 Apr

Eastleigh

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Apr

Weymouth

A

1

2

L

O

G

27 Mar

Altrincham

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Mar

Torquay

H

4

1

W

O

G

13 Mar

Chesterfield

H

2

0

W

U

N

09 Mar

Dag and Red

A

1

2

L

O

G


The form score for the Wealdstone is -0.712 and for the Maidenhead is -0.348.
The home dynamic for the Wealdstone is -0.005 and the dynamic as a guest for the Maidenhead is 0.289.
The offensive ability for the Wealdstone is 0.309 and for the Maidenhead is -0.191.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Wealdstone is -1 and for the Maidenhead is -0.565.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wealdstone and the red line for guest team, Maidenhead.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Wealdstone

26%

34%

23%

17%

Maidenhead

29%

35%

23%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wealdstone to score 1.38 goals and Maidenhead to score 1.4 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.78 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.02 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wealdstone to score 1.31 goals and Maidenhead to score 1.21 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.1 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.70

0-1

3.85

1

5.35

2-3

2.04

2

4.07

4+

4.00

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.33

Un 1.5

3.85

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

2.03

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

1.98

Gg

1.88

Ov 3.5

4.00

NoG

2.14

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.65

3.56

2.92

2-3 goals

2.49

4.08

2.83

4+ goals

2.60

3.29

3.21

Ov 1.5

2.53

3.77

2.94

Un 1.5

2.65

3.56

2.92

Ov 2.5

2.19

6.49

2.57

Un 2.5

3.07

2.62

3.42

Ov 3.5

2.60

3.29

3.21

Un 3.5

2.55

3.88

2.86

Goal-Goal

2.98

2.71

3.38

No Goal

2.21

6.41

2.56

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.31

5.41

2.62

NG+Un 2.5

2.34

6.41

2.61


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Woking vs Torquay at 20 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Woking and Torquay for Conference (England), which will take place on 20 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Woking

3.05

2.99

0.7

Draw

3.34

3.64

-2.5

Torquay

2.19

2.56

-6.6

Over 2.5

1.85

2.00

-4.1

Under 2.5

1.93

2.00

-1.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Woking (0.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Woking in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Woking in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Woking’s performance at home.
Woking, at home, had 5 wins, 6 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 41.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Woking was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Wrexham

H

0

4

L

O

N

13 Apr

Bromley

H

3

4

L

O

G

10 Apr

Eastleigh

A

0

0

D

U

N

05 Apr

Notts County

H

2

4

L

O

G

02 Apr

Torquay

A

0

1

L

U

N

23 Mar

Wealdstone

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Hartlepool

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 Mar

Altrincham

H

1

1

D

U

G


Torquay in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Torquay in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Torquay’s performance as a guest.
Torquay, as a guest, had 10 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 33 points, 64.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Torquay was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Apr

Sutton

A

1

0

W

U

N

10 Apr

Weymouth

H

2

1

W

O

G

05 Apr

Wrexham

A

1

0

W

U

N

02 Apr

Woking

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Mar

Dag and Red

A

0

1

L

U

N

23 Mar

Solihull

H

2

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

King’s Lynn

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Mar

Maidenhead

A

1

4

L

O

G


The form score for the Woking is -0.786 and for the Torquay is 0.704.
The home dynamic for the Woking is -0.077 and the dynamic as a guest for the Torquay is 0.711.
The offensive ability for the Woking is -0.256 and for the Torquay is 0.652.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Woking is -0.14 and for the Torquay is 0.565.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Woking and the red line for guest team, Torquay.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Woking

24%

42%

21%

12%

Torquay

25%

34%

25%

17%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Woking to score 1.14 goals and Torquay to score 1.45 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and the guest team Torquay to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Woking to score 1.22 goals and Torquay to score 1.33 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.11 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

16.67

0-1

4.07

1

5.38

2-3

2.00

2

3.94

4+

3.95

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.06

Un 1.5

4.07

5

14.93

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

2.00

Gg

1.75

Ov 3.5

3.95

NoG

2.33

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

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