2021 04 20 Eredivisie (Holland)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Ajax vs Utrecht at 22 April 2021


Ajax vs Utrecht at 22 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Ajax and Utrecht for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 22 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Ajax

1.34

1.65

-14.0

Draw

5.37

4.61

3.1

Utrecht

7.87

5.65

5.0

Over 2.5

1.39

1.82

-17.0

Under 2.5

2.94

2.21

11.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Utrecht, Under 2.5 (3.1 %, 5 %, 11.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Ajax in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Ajax scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ajax in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Ajax scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ajax’s performance at home.
Ajax, at home, had 11 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 34 points, 87.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Ajax scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ajax was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Apr

Waalwijk

A

1

0

W

U

N

04 Apr

Heerenveen

A

2

1

W

O

G

21 Mar

Den Haag

H

5

0

W

O

N

14 Mar

Zwolle

A

2

0

W

U

N

07 Mar

Groningen

H

3

1

W

O

G

28 Feb

PSV Eindhoven

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Feb

Sparta Rotterdam

H

4

2

W

O

G

13 Feb

Heracles

A

2

0

W

U

N


Utrecht in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Utrecht scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Utrecht in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Utrecht scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Utrecht’s performance as a guest.
Utrecht, as a guest, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 56.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Utrecht scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Utrecht was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Apr

Feyenoord

H

1

2

L

O

G

04 Apr

Den Haag

A

4

1

W

O

G

20 Mar

For Sittard

A

1

0

W

U

N

14 Mar

Vitesse

H

1

3

L

O

G

06 Mar

Waalwijk

A

2

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

FC Emmen

H

0

1

L

U

N

19 Feb

Willem II

A

6

0

W

O

N

14 Feb

VVV Venlo

H

3

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Ajax is 1 and for the Utrecht is 0.015.
The home dynamic for the Ajax is 0.846 and the dynamic as a guest for the Utrecht is 0.5.
The offensive ability for the Ajax is 1 and for the Utrecht is 0.678.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Ajax is 0.482 and for the Utrecht is -0.591.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Ajax and the red line for guest team, Utrecht.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Ajax

19%

16%

37%

28%

Utrecht

43%

33%

16%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ajax to score 2.71 goals and Utrecht to score 0.71 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.42 goals in the game and the home team Ajax to win by 2 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ajax to score 1.75 goals and Utrecht to score 0.9 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.65 goals in the game and the home team Ajax to win by 0.85 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.35

0-1

4.74

1

7.69

2-3

1.91

2

4.17

4+

3.77

3

3.53

Ov 1.5

1.27

4

6.02

Un 1.5

4.74

5

13.16

Ov 2.5

1.82

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.22

Gg

2.15

Ov 3.5

3.77

NoG

1.87

Un 3.5

1.36

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.10

2.60

3.40

2-3 goals

1.31

9.87

7.26

4+ goals

1.89

3.19

6.31

Ov 1.5

1.46

5.79

6.91

Un 1.5

3.10

2.60

3.40

Ov 2.5

1.43

6.60

6.60

Un 2.5

2.01

3.37

4.85

Ov 3.5

1.89

3.19

6.31

Un 3.5

1.58

5.48

5.48

Goal-Goal

1.78

3.42

6.84

No Goal

1.55

6.59

4.94

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.58

4.96

6.06

NG+Un 2.5

1.78

6.59

4.28


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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