2021 04 20 La Liga (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Alaves vs Villarreal at 21 April 2021
Betis vs Ath Bilbao at 21 April 2021
Elche vs Valladolid at 21 April 2021
Levante vs Sevilla at 21 April 2021
Osasuna vs Valencia at 21 April 2021
Ath Madrid vs Huesca at 22 April 2021
Cadiz vs Real Madrid at 22 April 2021
Granada vs Eibar at 22 April 2021
Sociedad vs Celta at 22 April 2021


Alaves vs Villarreal at 21 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Alaves and Villarreal for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 21 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Alaves

4.31

2.57

15.7

Draw

3.44

3.58

-1.1

Villarreal

1.91

3.01

-19.1

Over 2.5

2.14

2.05

2.1

Under 2.5

1.72

1.95

-6.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Alaves, Over 2.5 (15.7 %, 2.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Alaves in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Alaves scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Alaves in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Alaves scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Alaves’s performance at home.
Alaves, at home, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 35.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Alaves scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Alaves was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

18 Apr

Huesca

H

1

0

W

U

N

10 Apr

Ath Bilbao

A

0

0

D

U

N

04 Apr

Celta

H

1

3

L

O

G

21 Mar

Ath Madrid

A

0

1

L

U

N

13 Mar

Cadiz

H

1

1

D

U

G

08 Mar

Betis

A

2

3

L

O

G

27 Feb

Osasuna

H

0

1

L

U

N

21 Feb

Sociedad

A

0

4

L

O

N


Villarreal in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Villarreal scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Villarreal in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Villarreal scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Villarreal’s performance as a guest.
Villarreal, as a guest, had 6 wins, 7 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 52.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Villarreal scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Villarreal was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

18 Apr

Levante

A

5

1

W

O

G

11 Apr

Osasuna

H

1

2

L

O

G

03 Apr

Granada

A

3

0

W

O

N

21 Mar

Cadiz

H

2

1

W

O

G

14 Mar

Eibar

A

3

1

W

O

G

05 Mar

Valencia

A

1

2

L

O

G

28 Feb

Ath Madrid

H

0

2

L

U

N

21 Feb

Ath Bilbao

A

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Alaves is -0.433 and for the Villarreal is 0.356.
The home dynamic for the Alaves is -0.367 and the dynamic as a guest for the Villarreal is 0.2.
The offensive ability for the Alaves is 0.166 and for the Villarreal is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Alaves is 0.067 and for the Villarreal is -0.591.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Alaves and the red line for guest team, Villarreal.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Alaves

24%

39%

18%

19%

Villarreal

27%

39%

21%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Alaves to score 0.84 goals and Villarreal to score 1.49 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and the guest team Villarreal to win by 0.65 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Alaves to score 1.32 goals and Villarreal to score 1.21 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.38

0-1

3.80

1

5.05

2-3

2.07

2

4.00

4+

3.98

3

4.27

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.17

Un 1.5

3.80

5

15.62

Ov 2.5

2.06

6+

40.00

Un 2.5

1.95

Gg

1.81

Ov 3.5

3.98

NoG

2.25

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.50

4.05

2.83

2-3 goals

2.85

3.21

2.97

4+ goals

2.22

3.98

3.35

Ov 1.5

2.60

3.43

3.09

Un 1.5

2.50

4.05

2.83

Ov 2.5

2.07

7.70

2.58

Un 2.5

3.33

2.38

3.59

Ov 3.5

2.22

3.98

3.35

Un 3.5

2.72

3.46

2.92

Goal-Goal

3.03

2.59

3.53

No Goal

2.17

6.83

2.55

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.20

6.40

2.57

NG+Un 2.5

2.35

6.83

2.53


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Betis vs Ath Bilbao at 21 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Betis and Ath Bilbao for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 21 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Betis

2.47

2.25

4.0

Draw

3.30

3.85

-4.3

Ath Bilbao

3.10

3.39

-2.8

Over 2.5

2.21

1.98

5.3

Under 2.5

1.71

2.02

-9.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Betis, Over 2.5 (4 %, 5.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Betis in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Betis scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Betis in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Betis scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Betis’s performance at home.
Betis, at home, had 8 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Betis scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Betis was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

18 Apr

Valencia

H

2

2

D

O

G

11 Apr

Ath Madrid

H

1

1

D

U

G

04 Apr

Elche

A

1

1

D

U

G

19 Mar

Levante

H

2

0

W

U

N

14 Mar

Sevilla

A

0

1

L

U

N

08 Mar

Alaves

H

3

2

W

O

G

28 Feb

Cadiz

A

1

0

W

U

N

19 Feb

Getafe

H

1

0

W

U

N


Ath Bilbao in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ath Bilbao in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ath Bilbao’s performance as a guest.
Ath Bilbao, as a guest, had 2 wins, 6 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 26.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ath Bilbao was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Alaves

H

0

0

D

U

N

07 Apr

Sociedad

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Mar

Eibar

H

1

1

D

U

G

14 Mar

Celta

A

0

0

D

U

N

10 Mar

Ath Madrid

A

1

2

L

O

G

07 Mar

Granada

H

2

1

W

O

G

26 Feb

Levante

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Feb

Villarreal

H

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Betis is 0.098 and for the Ath Bilbao is -0.015.
The home dynamic for the Betis is 0.05 and the dynamic as a guest for the Ath Bilbao is -0.378.
The offensive ability for the Betis is 0.641 and for the Ath Bilbao is 0.157.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Betis is -0.554 and for the Ath Bilbao is -0.157.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Betis and the red line for guest team, Ath Bilbao.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Betis

24%

30%

27%

19%

Ath Bilbao

33%

33%

21%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Betis to score 1.24 goals and Ath Bilbao to score 1.06 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Betis to score 1.42 goals and Ath Bilbao to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.29 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

3.89

1

5.59

2-3

2.06

2

4.17

4+

3.88

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.29

Un 1.5

3.89

5

13.51

Ov 2.5

1.99

6+

40.00

Un 2.5

2.01

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

3.88

NoG

2.04

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.57

3.29

3.25

2-3 goals

2.01

4.80

3.39

4+ goals

2.48

3.19

3.53

Ov 1.5

2.15

4.08

3.44

Un 1.5

2.57

3.29

3.25

Ov 2.5

1.96

6.21

3.03

Un 2.5

2.63

2.78

3.85

Ov 3.5

2.48

3.19

3.53

Un 3.5

2.18

4.15

3.34

Goal-Goal

2.65

2.81

3.76

No Goal

1.94

6.27

3.08

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.12

5.06

3.01

NG+Un 2.5

2.10

6.27

3.07


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Elche vs Valladolid at 21 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Elche and Valladolid for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 21 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Elche

2.88

2.16

11.6

Draw

3.06

3.85

-6.7

Valladolid

2.75

3.62

-8.7

Over 2.5

2.45

1.98

9.7

Under 2.5

1.57

2.02

-14.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Elche, Over 2.5 (11.6 %, 9.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Elche in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Elche scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Elche in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Elche scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Elche’s performance at home.
Elche, at home, had 3 wins, 7 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 38.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Elche scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Elche was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

18 Apr

Osasuna

A

0

2

L

U

N

09 Apr

Huesca

A

1

3

L

O

G

04 Apr

Betis

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Mar

Getafe

A

1

1

D

U

G

17 Mar

Sevilla

A

0

2

L

U

N

13 Mar

Real Madrid

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Mar

Sevilla

H

2

1

W

O

G

28 Feb

Granada

A

1

2

L

O

G


Valladolid in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Valladolid in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Valladolid’s performance as a guest.
Valladolid, as a guest, had 2 wins, 7 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 28.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Valladolid was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Apr

Granada

H

1

2

L

O

G

05 Apr

Barcelona

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Sevilla

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Osasuna

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Getafe

H

2

1

W

O

G

28 Feb

Celta

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Real Madrid

H

0

1

L

U

N

13 Feb

Eibar

A

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Elche is -0.926 and for the Valladolid is -0.237.
The home dynamic for the Elche is -0.385 and the dynamic as a guest for the Valladolid is -0.244.
The offensive ability for the Elche is 0.166 and for the Valladolid is 0.191.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Elche is -1 and for the Valladolid is -0.626.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Elche and the red line for guest team, Valladolid.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Elche

22%

31%

26%

21%

Valladolid

32%

37%

20%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Elche to score 1.05 goals and Valladolid to score 1.08 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.13 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.03 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Elche to score 1.45 goals and Valladolid to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and the home team Elche to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.89

0-1

3.95

1

5.52

2-3

2.04

2

4.13

4+

3.91

3

4.02

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.13

Un 1.5

3.95

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

1.98

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.02

Gg

1.90

Ov 3.5

3.91

NoG

2.11

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.58

3.51

3.05

2-3 goals

1.98

4.31

3.81

4+ goals

2.17

3.41

4.06

Ov 1.5

2.04

3.95

3.89

Un 1.5

2.58

3.51

3.05

Ov 2.5

1.79

6.73

3.41

Un 2.5

2.72

2.66

3.90

Ov 3.5

2.17

3.41

4.06

Un 3.5

2.15

4.00

3.51

Goal-Goal

2.45

2.79

4.28

No Goal

1.90

6.57

3.11

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.92

5.51

3.36

NG+Un 2.5

2.09

6.57

3.00


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Levante vs Sevilla at 21 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Levante and Sevilla for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 21 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Levante

4.87

2.55

18.7

Draw

4.18

3.82

2.3

Sevilla

1.68

2.89

-24.9

Over 2.5

1.73

1.89

-4.9

Under 2.5

2.16

2.12

0.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Levante, Draw, Under 2.5 (18.7 %, 2.3 %, 0.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Levante in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Levante in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Levante’s performance at home.
Levante, at home, had 5 wins, 7 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 45.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Levante was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

18 Apr

Villarreal

H

1

5

L

O

G

10 Apr

Eibar

A

1

0

W

U

N

02 Apr

Huesca

H

0

2

L

U

N

19 Mar

Betis

A

0

2

L

U

N

12 Mar

Valencia

H

1

0

W

U

N

07 Mar

Sociedad

A

0

1

L

U

N

26 Feb

Ath Bilbao

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Ath Madrid

A

2

0

W

U

N


Sevilla in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sevilla in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sevilla’s performance as a guest.
Sevilla, as a guest, had 9 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 30 points, 62.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sevilla was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

18 Apr

Sociedad

A

2

1

W

O

G

12 Apr

Celta

A

4

3

W

O

G

04 Apr

Ath Madrid

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Valladolid

A

1

1

D

U

G

17 Mar

Elche

H

2

0

W

U

N

14 Mar

Betis

H

1

0

W

U

N

06 Mar

Elche

A

1

2

L

O

G

27 Feb

Barcelona

H

0

2

L

U

N


The form score for the Levante is -0.507 and for the Sevilla is 0.837.
The home dynamic for the Levante is 0.005 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sevilla is 0.589.
The offensive ability for the Levante is -0.139 and for the Sevilla is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Levante is -0.067 and for the Sevilla is 0.07.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Levante and the red line for guest team, Sevilla.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Levante

25%

30%

27%

17%

Sevilla

26%

35%

22%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Levante to score 0.87 goals and Sevilla to score 1.91 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.77 goals in the game and the guest team Sevilla to win by 1.04 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Levante to score 1.36 goals and Sevilla to score 1.28 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.64 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.93

0-1

4.24

1

5.92

2-3

2.06

2

4.26

4+

3.60

3

4.00

Ov 1.5

1.31

4

5.92

Un 1.5

4.24

5

12.20

Ov 2.5

1.89

6+

37.04

Un 2.5

2.12

Gg

1.82

Ov 3.5

3.60

NoG

2.22

Un 3.5

1.39

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-