2021 04 20 League One (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Peterboro vs Gillingham at 20 April 2021
Swindon vs Portsmouth at 20 April 2021
Shrewsbury vs Wigan at 20 April 2021
Rochdale vs Blackpool at 20 April 2021
Plymouth vs Charlton at 20 April 2021
Hull vs Sunderland at 20 April 2021
Fleetwood Town vs Crewe at 20 April 2021
Burton vs Lincoln at 20 April 2021
Bristol Rvs vs Milton Keynes Dons at 20 April 2021
Accrington vs Doncaster at 20 April 2021
Northampton vs Ipswich at 20 April 2021
AFC Wimbledon vs Oxford at 20 April 2021


Peterboro vs Gillingham at 20 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Peterboro and Gillingham for League One (England), which will take place on 20 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Peterboro

1.58

2.05

-14.5

Draw

4.05

3.75

2.0

Gillingham

5.43

4.05

6.3

Over 2.5

1.78

2.18

-10.3

Under 2.5

2.05

1.85

5.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Gillingham, Under 2.5 (2 %, 6.3 %, 5.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Peterboro in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Peterboro in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Peterboro’s performance at home.
Peterboro, at home, had 15 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 48 points, 80.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in 19 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 14 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Peterboro was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Apr

Northampton

H

3

1

W

O

G

10 Apr

Swindon

A

3

0

W

O

N

05 Apr

Sunderland

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Apr

Fleetwood Town

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Mar

Accrington

H

7

0

W

O

N

23 Mar

Blackpool

A

1

3

L

O

G

20 Mar

Rochdale

A

3

3

D

O

G

16 Mar

Portsmouth

H

1

0

W

U

N


Gillingham in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Gillingham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Gillingham in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Gillingham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Gillingham’s performance as a guest.
Gillingham, as a guest, had 8 wins, 4 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Gillingham scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 17 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Gillingham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Oxford

A

2

3

L

O

G

10 Apr

Shrewsbury

H

0

0

D

U

N

05 Apr

Blackpool

A

1

4

L

O

G

31 Mar

Wigan

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Mar

Hull

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Mar

Doncaster

H

2

2

D

O

G

16 Mar

Lincoln

A

3

0

W

O

N

13 Mar

Swindon

A

3

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Peterboro is 0.609 and for the Gillingham is -0.207.
The home dynamic for the Peterboro is 0.403 and the dynamic as a guest for the Gillingham is 0.044.
The offensive ability for the Peterboro is 1 and for the Gillingham is 0.565.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Peterboro is 0.378 and for the Gillingham is -0.191.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Peterboro and the red line for guest team, Gillingham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Peterboro

19%

37%

26%

18%

Gillingham

37%

35%

18%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Peterboro to score 1.91 goals and Gillingham to score 0.78 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.69 goals in the game and the home team Peterboro to win by 1.13 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Peterboro to score 1.42 goals and Gillingham to score 0.99 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and the home team Peterboro to win by 0.43 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.89

0-1

3.57

1

4.81

2-3

1.98

2

3.80

4+

4.65

3

4.13

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.99

Un 1.5

3.57

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.19

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.84

Gg

1.98

Ov 3.5

4.65

NoG

2.02

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.00

3.89

4.12

2-3 goals

2.01

3.83

4.14

4+ goals

2.26

3.41

3.77

Ov 1.5

2.08

3.69

4.02

Un 1.5

2.00

3.89

4.12

Ov 2.5

1.82

7.25

3.20

Un 2.5

2.31

2.66

5.22

Ov 3.5

2.26

3.41

3.77

Un 3.5

2.01

3.85

4.13

Goal-Goal

2.74

2.59

4.02

No Goal

1.64

6.86

4.08

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.02

5.94

2.97

NG+Un 2.5

1.75

6.86

3.95


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Swindon vs Portsmouth at 20 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Swindon and Portsmouth for League One (England), which will take place on 20 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Swindon

4.15

2.99

9.3

Draw

3.68

3.80

-0.9

Portsmouth

1.82

2.49

-14.8

Over 2.5

1.93

1.98

-1.3

Under 2.5

1.88

2.02

-3.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Swindon (9.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Swindon in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Swindon in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Swindon’s performance at home.
Swindon, at home, had 7 wins, one draw, 13 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 34.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 19 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Swindon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

AFC Wimbledon

A

1

4

L

O

G

13 Apr

Rochdale

A

1

2

L

O

G

10 Apr

Peterboro

H

0

3

L

O

N

05 Apr

Burton

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Apr

Blackpool

H

0

2

L

U

N

23 Mar

Bristol Rvs

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Fleetwood Town

A

2

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Gillingham

H

1

3

L

O

G


Portsmouth in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Portsmouth in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Portsmouth’s performance as a guest.
Portsmouth, as a guest, had 11 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 36 points, 60.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Portsmouth was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Milton Keynes Dons

A

0

1

L

U

N

13 Apr

Crewe

A

0

0

D

U

N

10 Apr

Burton

H

1

2

L

O

G

05 Apr

Wigan

A

1

0

W

U

N

02 Apr

Rochdale

H

2

1

W

O

G

27 Mar

Shrewsbury

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Mar

Ipswich

H

2

1

W

O

G

16 Mar

Peterboro

A

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Swindon is -1 and for the Portsmouth is 0.074.
The home dynamic for the Swindon is -0.475 and the dynamic as a guest for the Portsmouth is 0.578.
The offensive ability for the Swindon is 0.22 and for the Portsmouth is 0.104.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Swindon is -0.617 and for the Portsmouth is -0.191.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Swindon and the red line for guest team, Portsmouth.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Swindon

32%

30%

23%

16%

Portsmouth

22%

38%

26%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Swindon to score 0.89 goals and Portsmouth to score 1.62 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the guest team Portsmouth to win by 0.73 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Swindon to score 1.23 goals and Portsmouth to score 1.34 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.11 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.71

0-1

3.98

1

5.46

2-3

2.04

2

4.08

4+

3.83

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.13

Un 1.5

3.98

5

13.33

Ov 2.5

1.98

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.02

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

3.83

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.92

3.69

2.11

2-3 goals

2.85

4.38

2.38

4+ goals

2.61

3.11

3.39

Ov 1.5

2.76

3.83

2.65

Un 1.5

3.92

3.69

2.11

Ov 2.5

2.28

6.02

2.53

Un 2.5

4.35

2.76

2.46

Ov 3.5

2.61

3.11

3.39

Un 3.5

3.14

4.12

2.28

Goal-Goal

2.86

2.74

3.49

No Goal

3.14

6.82

1.87

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.27

5.07

2.77

NG+Un 2.5

3.37

6.82

1.90


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Shrewsbury vs Wigan at 20 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Shrewsbury and Wigan for League One (England), which will take place on 20 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Shrewsbury

2.53

2.25

4.9

Draw

3.16

3.69

-4.5

Wigan

2.86

3.51

-6.5

Over 2.5

2.14

2.13

0.2

Under 2.5

1.72

1.89

-5.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Shrewsbury, Over 2.5 (4.9 %, 0.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Shrewsbury in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Shrewsbury in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Shrewsbury’s performance at home.
Shrewsbury, at home, had 5 wins, 7 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 38.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Shrewsbury was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Doncaster

H

0

2

L

U

N

13 Apr

Oxford

A

1

4

L

O

G

10 Apr

Gillingham

A

0

0

D

U

N

05 Apr

Plymouth

H

3

0

W

O

N

02 Apr

Northampton

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Mar

Portsmouth

H

1

2

L

O

G

23 Mar

Burton

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Mar

Hull

H

1

1

D

U

G


Wigan in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Wigan scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wigan in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Wigan scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wigan’s performance as a guest.
Wigan, as a guest, had 7 wins, 3 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 38.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Wigan scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 18 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wigan was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Crewe

H

2

0

W

U

N

13 Apr

Sunderland

H

2

1

W

O

G

10 Apr

Doncaster

A

4

1

W

O

G

05 Apr

Portsmouth

H

0

1

L

U

N

31 Mar

Gillingham

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Mar

Ipswich

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Mar

Accrington

A

1

3

L

O

G

16 Mar

AFC Wimbledon

A

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Shrewsbury is -0.721 and for the Wigan is 0.244.
The home dynamic for the Shrewsbury is -0.176 and the dynamic as a guest for the Wigan is -0.256.
The offensive ability for the Shrewsbury is -0.256 and for the Wigan is -0.043.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Shrewsbury is -0.067 and for the Wigan is -0.217.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Shrewsbury and the red line for guest team, Wigan.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Shrewsbury

22%

36%

25%

17%

Wigan

33%

36%

21%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Shrewsbury to score 1.21 goals and Wigan to score 1.11 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.1 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Shrewsbury to score 1.37 goals and Wigan to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.29 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.66

1

5.05

2-3

2.01

2

3.91

4+

4.41

3

4.13

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.71

Un 1.5

3.66

5

16.39

Ov 2.5

2.13

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.89

Gg

1.94

Ov 3.5

4.41

NoG

2.07

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.31

3.64

3.41

2-3 goals

2.19

3.92

3.46

4+ goals

2.34

3.29

3.72

Ov 1.5

2.24

3.70

3.54

Un 1.5

2.31

3.64

3.41

Ov 2.5

1.94

6.80

2.97

Un 2.5

2.64

2.62

4.17

Ov 3.5

2.34

3.29

3.72

Un 3.5

2.23

3.82

3.44

Goal-Goal

2.79

2.63

3.82

No Goal

1.88

6.43

3.21

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.10

5.64

2.88

NG+Un 2.5

2.01

6.43

3.17


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Rochdale vs Blackpool at 20 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Rochdale and Blackpool for League One (England), which will take place on 20 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Rochdale

3.70

2.87

7.8

Draw

3.35

3.86

-3.9

Blackpool

2.03

2.55

-10.0

Over 2.5

2.16

1.92

5.8

Under 2.5

1.69

2.08

-11.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Rochdale, Over 2.5 (7.8 %, 5.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Rochdale in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rochdale in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rochdale’s performance at home.
Rochdale, at home, had 3 wins, 9 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 28.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 18 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rochdale was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Accrington

H

3

1

W

O

G

13 Apr

Swindon

H

2

1

W

O

G

10 Apr

Fleetwood Town

A

0

1

L

U

N

05 Apr

Ipswich

H

0

0

D

U

N

02 Apr

Portsmouth

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Mar

Peterboro

H

3

3

D

O

G

13 Mar

Lincoln

A

2

1

W

O

G

09 Mar

Shrewsbury

H

0

2

L

U

N


Blackpool in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackpool scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Blackpool in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackpool scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Blackpool’s performance as a guest.
Blackpool, as a guest, had 9 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 51.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackpool scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Blackpool was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Sunderland

H

1

0

W

U

N

13 Apr

Accrington

H

0

0

D

U

N

10 Apr

Lincoln

A

2

2

D

O

G

05 Apr

Gillingham

H

4

1

W

O

G

02 Apr

Swindon

A

2

0

W

U

N

27 Mar

Plymouth

H

2

2

D

O

G

23 Mar

Peterboro

H

3

1

W

O

G

20 Mar

Oxford

A

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Rochdale is -0.014 and for the Blackpool is 0.504.
The home dynamic for the Rochdale is -0.511 and the dynamic as a guest for the Blackpool is -0.2.
The offensive ability for the Rochdale is 0.193 and for the Blackpool is 0.565.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Rochdale is -0.554 and for the Blackpool is 0.243.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Rochdale and the red line for guest team, Blackpool.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Rochdale

31%

28%

24%

17%

Blackpool

22%

38%

25%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Rochdale to score 0.91 goals and Blackpool to score 1.39 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.3 goals in the game and the guest team Blackpool to win by 0.48 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Rochdale to score 1.27 goals and Blackpool to score 1.34 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.07 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.71

0-1

4.08

1

5.65

2-3

2.08

2

4.26

4+

3.65

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

5.99

Un 1.5

4.08

5

12.50

Ov 2.5

1.92

6+

37.04

Un 2.5

2.08

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

3.65

NoG

2.16