# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Peterboro vs Gillingham at 20 April 2021**** Swindon vs Portsmouth at 20 April 2021**** Shrewsbury vs Wigan at 20 April 2021**** Rochdale vs Blackpool at 20 April 2021**** Plymouth vs Charlton at 20 April 2021**** Hull vs Sunderland at 20 April 2021**** Fleetwood Town vs Crewe at 20 April 2021**** Burton vs Lincoln at 20 April 2021**** Bristol Rvs vs Milton Keynes Dons at 20 April 2021**** Accrington vs Doncaster at 20 April 2021**** Northampton vs Ipswich at 20 April 2021**** AFC Wimbledon vs Oxford at 20 April 2021**

###
Peterboro vs Gillingham at 20 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Peterboro** and **Gillingham** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **20 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Peterboro |
1.58 |
2.05 |
-14.5 |

Draw |
4.05 |
3.75 |
2.0 |

Gillingham |
5.43 |
4.05 |
6.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.78 |
2.18 |
-10.3 |

Under 2.5 |
2.05 |
1.85 |
5.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Gillingham, Under 2.5 (2 %, 6.3 %, 5.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Peterboro** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Peterboro** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Peterboro** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Peterboro** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Peterboro’s performance** at home**.

Peterboro,** at home**, had 15 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 48 points, 80.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Peterboro scored in 19 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 14 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Peterboro was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Apr |
Northampton |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Swindon |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

05 Apr |
Sunderland |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Apr |
Fleetwood Town |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Accrington |
H |
7 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

23 Mar |
Blackpool |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Rochdale |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

16 Mar |
Portsmouth |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Gillingham** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Gillingham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Gillingham** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Gillingham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Gillingham’s performance** as a guest**.

Gillingham,** as a guest**, had 8 wins, 4 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Gillingham scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 17 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Gillingham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Apr |
Oxford |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Shrewsbury |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
Blackpool |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Mar |
Wigan |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Hull |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Mar |
Doncaster |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

16 Mar |
Lincoln |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

13 Mar |
Swindon |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Peterboro** is **0.609** and for the **Gillingham** is **-0.207.**

The home dynamic for the **Peterboro** is **0.403** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Gillingham** is **0.044.**

The offensive ability for the **Peterboro** is **1** and for the **Gillingham** is **0.565.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Peterboro** is **0.378** and for the **Gillingham** is **-0.191.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Peterboro** and the red line for guest team, **Gillingham. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Peterboro |
19% |
37% |
26% |
18% |

Gillingham |
37% |
35% |
18% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Peterboro** to score **1.91 ** goals and **Gillingham** to score **0.78 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.69** goals in the game and the home team **Peterboro ** to win by **1.13** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Peterboro** to score **1.42 ** goals and **Gillingham** to score **0.99 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.41** goals in the game and the home team **Peterboro ** to win by **0.43** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.89 |
0-1 |
3.57 |

1 |
4.81 |
2-3 |
1.98 |

2 |
3.80 |
4+ |
4.65 |

3 |
4.13 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
6.99 |
Un 1.5 |
3.57 |

5 |
17.86 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.19 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.84 |

Gg |
1.98 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.65 |

NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.00 |
3.89 |
4.12 |

2-3 goals |
2.01 |
3.83 |
4.14 |

4+ goals |
2.26 |
3.41 |
3.77 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.08 |
3.69 |
4.02 |

Un 1.5 |
2.00 |
3.89 |
4.12 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.82 |
7.25 |
3.20 |

Un 2.5 |
2.31 |
2.66 |
5.22 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.26 |
3.41 |
3.77 |

Un 3.5 |
2.01 |
3.85 |
4.13 |

Goal-Goal |
2.74 |
2.59 |
4.02 |

No Goal |
1.64 |
6.86 |
4.08 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |
5.94 |
2.97 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.75 |
6.86 |
3.95 |

####
Go to Top

###
Swindon vs Portsmouth at 20 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Swindon** and **Portsmouth** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **20 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Swindon |
4.15 |
2.99 |
9.3 |

Draw |
3.68 |
3.80 |
-0.9 |

Portsmouth |
1.82 |
2.49 |
-14.8 |

Over 2.5 |
1.93 |
1.98 |
-1.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.88 |
2.02 |
-3.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Swindon (9.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Swindon** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Swindon scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Swindon** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Swindon scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Swindon’s performance** at home**.

Swindon,** at home**, had 7 wins, one draw, 13 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 34.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Swindon scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 19 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Swindon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Apr |
AFC Wimbledon |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Apr |
Rochdale |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Peterboro |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

05 Apr |
Burton |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
Blackpool |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Mar |
Bristol Rvs |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Fleetwood Town |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Gillingham |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Portsmouth** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Portsmouth** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Portsmouth’s performance** as a guest**.

Portsmouth,** as a guest**, had 11 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 36 points, 60.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Portsmouth was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Apr |
Milton Keynes Dons |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Apr |
Crewe |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Burton |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Wigan |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Rochdale |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Mar |
Shrewsbury |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Ipswich |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Mar |
Peterboro |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Swindon** is **-1** and for the **Portsmouth** is **0.074.**

The home dynamic for the **Swindon** is **-0.475** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Portsmouth** is **0.578.**

The offensive ability for the **Swindon** is **0.22** and for the **Portsmouth** is **0.104.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Swindon** is **-0.617** and for the **Portsmouth** is **-0.191.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Swindon** and the red line for guest team, **Portsmouth. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Swindon |
32% |
30% |
23% |
16% |

Portsmouth |
22% |
38% |
26% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Swindon** to score **0.89 ** goals and **Portsmouth** to score **1.62 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.51** goals in the game and the guest team **Portsmouth ** to win by **0.73** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Swindon** to score **1.23 ** goals and **Portsmouth** to score **1.34 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.57** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.11** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.71 |
0-1 |
3.98 |

1 |
5.46 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.08 |
4+ |
3.83 |

3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
6.13 |
Un 1.5 |
3.98 |

5 |
13.33 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.02 |

Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.83 |

NoG |
2.16 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.92 |
3.69 |
2.11 |

2-3 goals |
2.85 |
4.38 |
2.38 |

4+ goals |
2.61 |
3.11 |
3.39 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.76 |
3.83 |
2.65 |

Un 1.5 |
3.92 |
3.69 |
2.11 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.28 |
6.02 |
2.53 |

Un 2.5 |
4.35 |
2.76 |
2.46 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.61 |
3.11 |
3.39 |

Un 3.5 |
3.14 |
4.12 |
2.28 |

Goal-Goal |
2.86 |
2.74 |
3.49 |

No Goal |
3.14 |
6.82 |
1.87 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.27 |
5.07 |
2.77 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.37 |
6.82 |
1.90 |

####
Go to Top

###
Shrewsbury vs Wigan at 20 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Shrewsbury** and **Wigan** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **20 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Shrewsbury |
2.53 |
2.25 |
4.9 |

Draw |
3.16 |
3.69 |
-4.5 |

Wigan |
2.86 |
3.51 |
-6.5 |

Over 2.5 |
2.14 |
2.13 |
0.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.72 |
1.89 |
-5.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Shrewsbury, Over 2.5 (4.9 %, 0.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Shrewsbury** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Shrewsbury** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Shrewsbury’s performance** at home**.

Shrewsbury,** at home**, had 5 wins, 7 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 38.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Shrewsbury was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Apr |
Doncaster |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Apr |
Oxford |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Gillingham |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
Plymouth |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

02 Apr |
Northampton |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Portsmouth |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Mar |
Burton |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Hull |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Wigan** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Wigan scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Wigan** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Wigan** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wigan’s performance** as a guest**.

Wigan,** as a guest**, had 7 wins, 3 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 38.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Wigan scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 18 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Wigan was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Apr |
Crewe |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Apr |
Sunderland |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Doncaster |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Portsmouth |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

31 Mar |
Gillingham |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Ipswich |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Accrington |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Mar |
AFC Wimbledon |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **Shrewsbury** is **-0.721** and for the **Wigan** is **0.244.**

The home dynamic for the **Shrewsbury** is **-0.176** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Wigan** is **-0.256.**

The offensive ability for the **Shrewsbury** is **-0.256** and for the **Wigan** is **-0.043.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Shrewsbury** is **-0.067** and for the **Wigan** is **-0.217.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Shrewsbury** and the red line for guest team, **Wigan. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Shrewsbury |
22% |
36% |
25% |
17% |

Wigan |
33% |
36% |
21% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Shrewsbury** to score **1.21 ** goals and **Wigan** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.33** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.1** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Shrewsbury** to score **1.37 ** goals and **Wigan** to score **1.08 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.45** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.29** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.66 |

1 |
5.05 |
2-3 |
2.01 |

2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
4.41 |

3 |
4.13 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |

4 |
6.71 |
Un 1.5 |
3.66 |

5 |
16.39 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.13 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.89 |

Gg |
1.94 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.41 |

NoG |
2.07 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.31 |
3.64 |
3.41 |

2-3 goals |
2.19 |
3.92 |
3.46 |

4+ goals |
2.34 |
3.29 |
3.72 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.24 |
3.70 |
3.54 |

Un 1.5 |
2.31 |
3.64 |
3.41 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.94 |
6.80 |
2.97 |

Un 2.5 |
2.64 |
2.62 |
4.17 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.34 |
3.29 |
3.72 |

Un 3.5 |
2.23 |
3.82 |
3.44 |

Goal-Goal |
2.79 |
2.63 |
3.82 |

No Goal |
1.88 |
6.43 |
3.21 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.10 |
5.64 |
2.88 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.01 |
6.43 |
3.17 |

####
Go to Top

###
Rochdale vs Blackpool at 20 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Rochdale** and **Blackpool** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **20 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Rochdale |
3.70 |
2.87 |
7.8 |

Draw |
3.35 |
3.86 |
-3.9 |

Blackpool |
2.03 |
2.55 |
-10.0 |

Over 2.5 |
2.16 |
1.92 |
5.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.69 |
2.08 |
-11.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Rochdale, Over 2.5 (7.8 %, 5.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Rochdale** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Rochdale scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Rochdale** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Rochdale scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rochdale’s performance** at home**.

Rochdale,** at home**, had 3 wins, 9 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 28.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Rochdale scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 18 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Rochdale was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Apr |
Accrington |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Apr |
Swindon |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Fleetwood Town |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
Ipswich |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Portsmouth |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Peterboro |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Lincoln |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Mar |
Shrewsbury |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Blackpool** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Blackpool scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Blackpool** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Blackpool scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Blackpool’s performance** as a guest**.

Blackpool,** as a guest**, had 9 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 51.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Blackpool scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Blackpool was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Apr |
Sunderland |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Apr |
Accrington |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Lincoln |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Gillingham |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
Swindon |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Plymouth |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

23 Mar |
Peterboro |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Oxford |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Rochdale** is **-0.014** and for the **Blackpool** is **0.504.**

The home dynamic for the **Rochdale** is **-0.511** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Blackpool** is **-0.2.**

The offensive ability for the **Rochdale** is **0.193** and for the **Blackpool** is **0.565.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Rochdale** is **-0.554** and for the **Blackpool** is **0.243.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Rochdale** and the red line for guest team, **Blackpool. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Rochdale |
31% |
28% |
24% |
17% |

Blackpool |
22% |
38% |
25% |
16% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Rochdale** to score **0.91 ** goals and **Blackpool** to score **1.39 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.3** goals in the game and the guest team **Blackpool ** to win by **0.48** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Rochdale** to score **1.27 ** goals and **Blackpool** to score **1.34 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.61** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.07** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.71 |
0-1 |
4.08 |

1 |
5.65 |
2-3 |
2.08 |

2 |
4.26 |
4+ |
3.65 |

3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |

4 |
5.99 |
Un 1.5 |
4.08 |

5 |
12.50 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.92 |

6+ |
37.04 |
Un 2.5 |
2.08 |

Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.65 |

NoG |
2.16 |