# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Bradford vs Tranmere at 20 April 2021**** Walsall vs Salford at 20 April 2021**** Newport County vs Crawley Town at 20 April 2021**** Mansfield vs Scunthorpe at 20 April 2021**** Leyton Orient vs Cambridge at 20 April 2021**** Harrogate vs Oldham at 20 April 2021**** Grimsby vs Morecambe at 20 April 2021**** Colchester vs Southend at 20 April 2021**** Bolton vs Carlisle at 20 April 2021**** Barrow vs Port Vale at 20 April 2021**** Forest Green vs Exeter at 20 April 2021**** Stevenage vs Cheltenham at 20 April 2021**

###
Bradford vs Tranmere at 20 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Bradford** and **Tranmere** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **20 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Bradford |
2.68 |
2.70 |
-0.3 |

Draw |
3.21 |
3.66 |
-3.8 |

Tranmere |
2.63 |
2.81 |
-2.4 |

Over 2.5 |
2.13 |
2.14 |
-0.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.70 |
1.88 |
-5.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at ** ( %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Bradford** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Bradford scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bradford** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Bradford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bradford’s performance** at home**.

Bradford,** at home**, had 9 wins, 6 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 33 points, 55.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Bradford scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bradford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Apr |
Harrogate |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Apr |
Crawley Town |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Grimsby |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
Stevenage |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Apr |
Forest Green |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Mar |
Colchester |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Mar |
Scunthorpe |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Oldham |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Tranmere** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Tranmere scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Tranmere** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Tranmere** didn’t score to any of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Tranmere’s performance** as a guest**.

Tranmere,** as a guest**, had 8 wins, 8 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 32 points, 50.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Tranmere scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 15 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Tranmere was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Apr |
Salford |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Apr |
Walsall |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Scunthorpe |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
Cambridge |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Apr |
Cheltenham |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

27 Mar |
Mansfield |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Mar |
Colchester |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Exeter |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Bradford** is **0.005** and for the **Tranmere** is **-0.333.**

The home dynamic for the **Bradford** is **-0.158** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Tranmere** is **0.178.**

The offensive ability for the **Bradford** is **0.552** and for the **Tranmere** is **-0.652.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Bradford** is **-0.513** and for the **Tranmere** is **-0.13.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Bradford** and the red line for guest team, **Tranmere. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Bradford |
29% |
32% |
26% |
13% |

Tranmere |
29% |
35% |
23% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Bradford** to score **1.15 ** goals and **Tranmere** to score **1.17 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.32** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.02** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Bradford** to score **1.23 ** goals and **Tranmere** to score **1.2 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.43** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.03** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.90 |
0-1 |
3.57 |

1 |
5.10 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
3.95 |
4+ |
4.39 |

3 |
4.18 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
6.80 |
Un 1.5 |
3.57 |

5 |
15.62 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.14 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.88 |

Gg |
1.98 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.39 |

NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.04 |
3.33 |
2.69 |

2-3 goals |
2.42 |
4.35 |
2.80 |

4+ goals |
2.96 |
3.04 |
3.00 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.57 |
3.83 |
2.86 |

Un 1.5 |
3.04 |
3.33 |
2.69 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.27 |
6.23 |
2.51 |

Un 2.5 |
3.21 |
2.71 |
3.14 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.96 |
3.04 |
3.00 |

Un 3.5 |
2.62 |
3.92 |
2.76 |

Goal-Goal |
3.00 |
2.68 |
3.41 |

No Goal |
2.43 |
5.90 |
2.38 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.33 |
5.21 |
2.64 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.53 |
5.90 |
2.47 |

####
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###
Walsall vs Salford at 20 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Walsall** and **Salford** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **20 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Walsall |
3.72 |
2.98 |
6.7 |

Draw |
3.23 |
3.69 |
-3.9 |

Salford |
2.07 |
2.54 |
-8.9 |

Over 2.5 |
2.40 |
2.16 |
4.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.58 |
1.86 |
-9.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Walsall, Over 2.5 (6.7 %, 4.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Walsall** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Walsall scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Walsall** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Walsall** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Walsall’s performance** at home**.

Walsall,** at home**, had 7 wins, 6 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 42.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Walsall scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Walsall was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Apr |
Colchester |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Apr |
Tranmere |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Forest Green |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Leyton Orient |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Harrogate |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Grimsby |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Mar |
Southend |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Bolton |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Salford** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Salford scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Salford** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Salford scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Salford’s performance** as a guest**.

Salford,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 35.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Salford scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 15 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Salford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Apr |
Tranmere |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Apr |
Bolton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Stevenage |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Forest Green |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Grimsby |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Mar |
Exeter |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Cheltenham |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Mar |
Colchester |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Walsall** is **0.116** and for the **Salford** is **0.015.**

The home dynamic for the **Walsall** is **-0.167** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Salford** is **-0.044.**

The offensive ability for the **Walsall** is **0.256** and for the **Salford** is **-0.217.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Walsall** is **0.378** and for the **Salford** is **-0.157.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Walsall** and the red line for guest team, **Salford. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Walsall |
33% |
30% |
25% |
12% |

Salford |
26% |
36% |
24% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Walsall** to score **0.86 ** goals and **Salford** to score **1.29 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.15** goals in the game and the guest team **Salford ** to win by **0.43** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Walsall** to score **1.16 ** goals and **Salford** to score **1.26 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.42** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.1** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.36 |
0-1 |
3.50 |

1 |
5.05 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
3.97 |
4+ |
4.44 |

3 |
4.18 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
6.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.50 |

5 |
15.62 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.86 |

Gg |
2.03 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.44 |

NoG |
1.96 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.62 |
3.25 |
2.40 |

2-3 goals |
2.61 |
4.63 |
2.49 |

4+ goals |
3.21 |
2.92 |
2.88 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.78 |
3.91 |
2.60 |

Un 1.5 |
3.62 |
3.25 |
2.40 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.43 |
6.03 |
2.37 |

Un 2.5 |
3.68 |
2.77 |
2.72 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.21 |
2.92 |
2.88 |

Un 3.5 |
2.91 |
4.01 |
2.46 |

Goal-Goal |
3.08 |
2.69 |
3.30 |

No Goal |
2.88 |
5.80 |
2.08 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.41 |
5.01 |
2.59 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.96 |
5.80 |
2.18 |

####
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###
Newport County vs Crawley Town at 20 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Newport County** and **Crawley Town** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **20 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Newport County |
2.09 |
2.45 |
-7.0 |

Draw |
3.32 |
3.64 |
-2.6 |

Crawley Town |
3.56 |
3.15 |
3.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.20 |
2.18 |
0.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.67 |
1.85 |
-5.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Crawley Town, Over 2.5 (3.7 %, 0.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Newport County** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Newport County scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Newport County** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Newport County scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Newport County’s performance** at home**.

Newport County,** at home**, had 10 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 35 points, 58.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Newport County scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Newport County was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Apr |
Cambridge |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Apr |
Carlisle |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Apr |
Mansfield |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

05 Apr |
Bolton |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Barrow |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Leyton Orient |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Mar |
Port Vale |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Morecambe |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Crawley Town** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Crawley Town** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 2 of them** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Crawley Town’s performance** as a guest**.

Crawley Town,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 6 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 38.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Crawley Town was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Apr |
Cheltenham |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Apr |
Bradford |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Southend |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
Oldham |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
Scunthorpe |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

30 Mar |
Carlisle |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Port Vale |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Barrow |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Newport County** is **-0.488** and for the **Crawley Town** is **0.089.**

The home dynamic for the **Newport County** is **0.167** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Crawley Town** is **0.167.**

The offensive ability for the **Newport County** is **-0.256** and for the **Crawley Town** is **-0.07.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Newport County** is **-0.036** and for the **Crawley Town** is **0.652.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Newport County** and the red line for guest team, **Crawley Town. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Newport County |
26% |
34% |
24% |
15% |

Crawley Town |
32% |
36% |
21% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Newport County** to score **1.35 ** goals and **Crawley Town** to score **0.93 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.27** goals in the game and the home team **Newport County ** to win by **0.42** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Newport County** to score **1.29 ** goals and **Crawley Town** to score **1.12 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.41** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.17** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.20 |
0-1 |
3.51 |

1 |
4.93 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.89 |
4+ |
4.55 |

3 |
4.20 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
6.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.51 |

5 |
16.95 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.18 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.85 |

Gg |
1.98 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.55 |

NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.64 |
3.48 |
3.00 |

2-3 goals |
2.31 |
3.96 |
3.17 |

4+ goals |
2.53 |
3.24 |
3.38 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.38 |
3.70 |
3.24 |

Un 1.5 |
2.64 |
3.48 |
3.00 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.04 |
6.74 |
2.76 |

Un 2.5 |
2.93 |
2.62 |
3.61 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.53 |
3.24 |
3.38 |

Un 3.5 |
2.42 |
3.77 |
3.11 |

Goal-Goal |
2.88 |
2.62 |
3.69 |

No Goal |
2.12 |
6.02 |
2.76 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |
5.60 |
2.78 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.25 |
6.02 |
2.78 |

####
Go to Top

###
Mansfield vs Scunthorpe at 20 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Mansfield** and **Scunthorpe** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **20 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Mansfield |
1.82 |
2.44 |
-14.0 |

Draw |
3.52 |
3.64 |
-0.9 |

Scunthorpe |
4.31 |
3.16 |
8.4 |

Over 2.5 |
2.11 |
2.20 |
-1.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.72 |
1.83 |
-3.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Scunthorpe (8.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Mansfield** in the **last six** matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Mansfield scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Mansfield** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Mansfield scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Mansfield’s performance** at home**.

Mansfield,** at home**, had 4 wins, 10 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 34.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Mansfield scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 13 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Mansfield was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Apr |
Stevenage |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Apr |
Newport County |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

05 Apr |
Exeter |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Leyton Orient |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Tranmere |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Mar |
Forest Green |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Grimsby |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

16 Mar |
Carlisle |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Scunthorpe** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Scunthorpe** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Scunthorpe’s performance** as a guest**.

Scunthorpe,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 12 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Scunthorpe was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Apr |
Forest Green |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Apr |
Morecambe |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Tranmere |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Apr |
Carlisle |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Crawley Town |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Mar |
Bradford |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Southend |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

16 Mar |
Oldham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **Mansfield** is **-0.042** and for the **Scunthorpe** is **-0.407.**

The home dynamic for the **Mansfield** is **-0.258** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Scunthorpe** is **-0.289.**

The offensive ability for the **Mansfield** is **-0.139** and for the **Scunthorpe** is **-0.13.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Mansfield** is **0.42** and for the **Scunthorpe** is **0.07.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Mansfield** and the red line for guest team, **Scunthorpe. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Mansfield |
27% |
33% |
25% |
15% |

Scunthorpe |
32% |
36% |
21% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Mansfield** to score **1.52 ** goals and **Scunthorpe** to score **0.82 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.34** goals in the game and the home team **Mansfield ** to win by **0.7** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Mansfield** to score **1.28 ** goals and **Scunthorpe** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.39** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.17** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.90 |
0-1 |
3.48 |

1 |
4.93 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.89 |
4+ |
4.59 |

3 |
4.22 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
6.99 |
Un 1.5 |
3.48 |

5 |
16.95 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.20 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.84 |

Gg |
2.00 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.59 |

NoG |
2.01 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |