2021 04 20 League Two (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Bradford vs Tranmere at 20 April 2021
Walsall vs Salford at 20 April 2021
Newport County vs Crawley Town at 20 April 2021
Mansfield vs Scunthorpe at 20 April 2021
Leyton Orient vs Cambridge at 20 April 2021
Harrogate vs Oldham at 20 April 2021
Grimsby vs Morecambe at 20 April 2021
Colchester vs Southend at 20 April 2021
Bolton vs Carlisle at 20 April 2021
Barrow vs Port Vale at 20 April 2021
Forest Green vs Exeter at 20 April 2021
Stevenage vs Cheltenham at 20 April 2021


Bradford vs Tranmere at 20 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bradford and Tranmere for League Two (England), which will take place on 20 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Bradford

2.68

2.70

-0.3

Draw

3.21

3.66

-3.8

Tranmere

2.63

2.81

-2.4

Over 2.5

2.13

2.14

-0.2

Under 2.5

1.70

1.88

-5.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Bradford in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Bradford scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bradford in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bradford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bradford’s performance at home.
Bradford, at home, had 9 wins, 6 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 33 points, 55.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Bradford scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bradford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Harrogate

A

1

2

L

O

G

13 Apr

Crawley Town

H

0

2

L

U

N

10 Apr

Grimsby

H

1

0

W

U

N

05 Apr

Stevenage

A

1

1

D

U

G

02 Apr

Forest Green

H

4

1

W

O

G

27 Mar

Colchester

A

2

1

W

O

G

23 Mar

Scunthorpe

A

0

2

L

U

N

20 Mar

Oldham

H

0

0

D

U

N


Tranmere in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Tranmere scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Tranmere in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Tranmere didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Tranmere’s performance as a guest.
Tranmere, as a guest, had 8 wins, 8 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 32 points, 50.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Tranmere scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 15 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Tranmere was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Salford

H

0

0

D

U

N

13 Apr

Walsall

A

0

1

L

U

N

10 Apr

Scunthorpe

A

0

0

D

U

N

05 Apr

Cambridge

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Apr

Cheltenham

A

0

4

L

O

N

27 Mar

Mansfield

H

1

1

D

U

G

23 Mar

Colchester

A

2

2

D

O

G

20 Mar

Exeter

H

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Bradford is 0.005 and for the Tranmere is -0.333.
The home dynamic for the Bradford is -0.158 and the dynamic as a guest for the Tranmere is 0.178.
The offensive ability for the Bradford is 0.552 and for the Tranmere is -0.652.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Bradford is -0.513 and for the Tranmere is -0.13.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Bradford and the red line for guest team, Tranmere.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Bradford

29%

32%

26%

13%

Tranmere

29%

35%

23%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bradford to score 1.15 goals and Tranmere to score 1.17 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.02 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bradford to score 1.23 goals and Tranmere to score 1.2 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.03 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.90

0-1

3.57

1

5.10

2-3

2.03

2

3.95

4+

4.39

3

4.18

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.80

Un 1.5

3.57

5

15.62

Ov 2.5

2.14

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.88

Gg

1.98

Ov 3.5

4.39

NoG

2.02

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.04

3.33

2.69

2-3 goals

2.42

4.35

2.80

4+ goals

2.96

3.04

3.00

Ov 1.5

2.57

3.83

2.86

Un 1.5

3.04

3.33

2.69

Ov 2.5

2.27

6.23

2.51

Un 2.5

3.21

2.71

3.14

Ov 3.5

2.96

3.04

3.00

Un 3.5

2.62

3.92

2.76

Goal-Goal

3.00

2.68

3.41

No Goal

2.43

5.90

2.38

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.33

5.21

2.64

NG+Un 2.5

2.53

5.90

2.47


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Walsall vs Salford at 20 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Walsall and Salford for League Two (England), which will take place on 20 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Walsall

3.72

2.98

6.7

Draw

3.23

3.69

-3.9

Salford

2.07

2.54

-8.9

Over 2.5

2.40

2.16

4.6

Under 2.5

1.58

1.86

-9.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Walsall, Over 2.5 (6.7 %, 4.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Walsall in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Walsall scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Walsall in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Walsall scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Walsall’s performance at home.
Walsall, at home, had 7 wins, 6 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 42.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Walsall scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Walsall was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Colchester

A

1

2

L

O

G

13 Apr

Tranmere

H

1

0

W

U

N

10 Apr

Forest Green

H

2

1

W

O

G

05 Apr

Leyton Orient

A

0

0

D

U

N

02 Apr

Harrogate

H

0

0

D

U

N

27 Mar

Grimsby

A

1

1

D

U

G

23 Mar

Southend

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Mar

Bolton

A

1

2

L

O

G


Salford in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Salford in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Salford’s performance as a guest.
Salford, as a guest, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 35.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 15 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Salford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Tranmere

A

0

0

D

U

N

13 Apr

Bolton

H

0

1

L

U

N

10 Apr

Stevenage

H

2

1

W

O

G

05 Apr

Forest Green

A

2

0

W

U

N

02 Apr

Grimsby

H

1

1

D

U

G

27 Mar

Exeter

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Cheltenham

A

0

2

L

U

N

16 Mar

Colchester

H

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Walsall is 0.116 and for the Salford is 0.015.
The home dynamic for the Walsall is -0.167 and the dynamic as a guest for the Salford is -0.044.
The offensive ability for the Walsall is 0.256 and for the Salford is -0.217.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Walsall is 0.378 and for the Salford is -0.157.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Walsall and the red line for guest team, Salford.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Walsall

33%

30%

25%

12%

Salford

26%

36%

24%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Walsall to score 0.86 goals and Salford to score 1.29 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.15 goals in the game and the guest team Salford to win by 0.43 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Walsall to score 1.16 goals and Salford to score 1.26 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.1 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.36

0-1

3.50

1

5.05

2-3

2.04

2

3.97

4+

4.44

3

4.18

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

6.94

Un 1.5

3.50

5

15.62

Ov 2.5

2.16

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.86

Gg

2.03

Ov 3.5

4.44

NoG

1.96

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.62

3.25

2.40

2-3 goals

2.61

4.63

2.49

4+ goals

3.21

2.92

2.88

Ov 1.5

2.78

3.91

2.60

Un 1.5

3.62

3.25

2.40

Ov 2.5

2.43

6.03

2.37

Un 2.5

3.68

2.77

2.72

Ov 3.5

3.21

2.92

2.88

Un 3.5

2.91

4.01

2.46

Goal-Goal

3.08

2.69

3.30

No Goal

2.88

5.80

2.08

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.41

5.01

2.59

NG+Un 2.5

2.96

5.80

2.18


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Newport County vs Crawley Town at 20 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Newport County and Crawley Town for League Two (England), which will take place on 20 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Newport County

2.09

2.45

-7.0

Draw

3.32

3.64

-2.6

Crawley Town

3.56

3.15

3.7

Over 2.5

2.20

2.18

0.4

Under 2.5

1.67

1.85

-5.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Crawley Town, Over 2.5 (3.7 %, 0.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Newport County in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Newport County scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Newport County in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Newport County scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Newport County’s performance at home.
Newport County, at home, had 10 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 35 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Newport County scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Newport County was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Cambridge

H

0

1

L

U

N

13 Apr

Carlisle

H

0

0

D

U

N

09 Apr

Mansfield

A

1

1

D

U

G

05 Apr

Bolton

H

1

0

W

U

N

02 Apr

Barrow

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Mar

Leyton Orient

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Mar

Port Vale

A

1

2

L

O

G

13 Mar

Morecambe

A

3

1

W

O

G


Crawley Town in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Crawley Town in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 2 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Crawley Town’s performance as a guest.
Crawley Town, as a guest, had 6 wins, 6 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 38.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crawley Town was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Apr

Cheltenham

H

1

0

W

U

N

13 Apr

Bradford

A

2

0

W

U

N

10 Apr

Southend

A

0

0

D

U

N

05 Apr

Oldham

H

1

4

L

O

G

02 Apr

Scunthorpe

A

0

0

D

U

N

30 Mar

Carlisle

A

0

2

L

U

N

27 Mar

Port Vale

H

1

3

L

O

G

20 Mar

Barrow

A

2

3

L

O

G


The form score for the Newport County is -0.488 and for the Crawley Town is 0.089.
The home dynamic for the Newport County is 0.167 and the dynamic as a guest for the Crawley Town is 0.167.
The offensive ability for the Newport County is -0.256 and for the Crawley Town is -0.07.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Newport County is -0.036 and for the Crawley Town is 0.652.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Newport County and the red line for guest team, Crawley Town.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Newport County

26%

34%

24%

15%

Crawley Town

32%

36%

21%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Newport County to score 1.35 goals and Crawley Town to score 0.93 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and the home team Newport County to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Newport County to score 1.29 goals and Crawley Town to score 1.12 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.17 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.20

0-1

3.51

1

4.93

2-3

2.02

2

3.89

4+

4.55

3

4.20

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

6.94

Un 1.5

3.51

5

16.95

Ov 2.5

2.18

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.85

Gg

1.98

Ov 3.5

4.55

NoG

2.02

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.64

3.48

3.00

2-3 goals

2.31

3.96

3.17

4+ goals

2.53

3.24

3.38

Ov 1.5

2.38

3.70

3.24

Un 1.5

2.64

3.48

3.00

Ov 2.5

2.04

6.74

2.76

Un 2.5

2.93

2.62

3.61

Ov 3.5

2.53

3.24

3.38

Un 3.5

2.42

3.77

3.11

Goal-Goal

2.88

2.62

3.69

No Goal

2.12

6.02

2.76

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.16

5.60

2.78

NG+Un 2.5

2.25

6.02

2.78


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Mansfield vs Scunthorpe at 20 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Mansfield and Scunthorpe for League Two (England), which will take place on 20 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Mansfield

1.82

2.44

-14.0

Draw

3.52

3.64

-0.9

Scunthorpe

4.31

3.16

8.4

Over 2.5

2.11

2.20

-1.9

Under 2.5

1.72

1.83

-3.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Scunthorpe (8.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Mansfield in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Mansfield scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Mansfield in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Mansfield scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Mansfield’s performance at home.
Mansfield, at home, had 4 wins, 10 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 34.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Mansfield scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 13 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Mansfield was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Stevenage

A

1

0

W

U

N

09 Apr

Newport County

H

1

1

D

U

G

05 Apr

Exeter

A

0

0

D

U

N

02 Apr

Leyton Orient

H

0

2

L

U

N

27 Mar

Tranmere

A

1

1

D

U

G

23 Mar

Forest Green

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Mar

Grimsby

H

2

2

D

O

G

16 Mar

Carlisle

H

1

1

D

U

G


Scunthorpe in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Scunthorpe in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Scunthorpe’s performance as a guest.
Scunthorpe, as a guest, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 12 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Scunthorpe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Forest Green

A

2

3

L

O

G

13 Apr

Morecambe

A

1

4

L

O

G

10 Apr

Tranmere

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Apr

Carlisle

A

0

2

L

U

N

02 Apr

Crawley Town

H

0

0

D

U

N

23 Mar

Bradford

H

2

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Southend

H

1

1

D

U

G

16 Mar

Oldham

H

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Mansfield is -0.042 and for the Scunthorpe is -0.407.
The home dynamic for the Mansfield is -0.258 and the dynamic as a guest for the Scunthorpe is -0.289.
The offensive ability for the Mansfield is -0.139 and for the Scunthorpe is -0.13.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Mansfield is 0.42 and for the Scunthorpe is 0.07.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Mansfield and the red line for guest team, Scunthorpe.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Mansfield

27%

33%

25%

15%

Scunthorpe

32%

36%

21%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Mansfield to score 1.52 goals and Scunthorpe to score 0.82 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and the home team Mansfield to win by 0.7 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Mansfield to score 1.28 goals and Scunthorpe to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.17 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.90

0-1

3.48

1

4.93

2-3

2.02

2

3.89

4+

4.59

3

4.22

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

6.99

Un 1.5

3.48

5

16.95

Ov 2.5

2.20

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.84

Gg

2.00

Ov 3.5

4.59

NoG

2.01

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at