2021 04 20 Premier League (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Chelsea vs Brighton at 20 April 2021
Aston Villa vs Man City at 21 April 2021
Tottenham vs Southampton at 21 April 2021
Leicester vs West Brom at 22 April 2021


Chelsea vs Brighton at 20 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Chelsea and Brighton for Premier League (England), which will take place on 20 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Chelsea

1.62

1.92

-9.6

Draw

3.89

3.83

0.4

Brighton

5.99

4.63

4.9

Over 2.5

2.12

2.16

-0.9

Under 2.5

1.75

1.86

-3.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Brighton (0.4 %, 4.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Chelsea in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Chelsea scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Chelsea in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Chelsea scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Chelsea’s performance at home.
Chelsea, at home, had 7 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 57.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Chelsea scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Chelsea was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Crystal Palace

A

4

1

W

O

G

03 Apr

West Brom

H

2

5

L

O

G

13 Mar

Leeds

A

0

0

D

U

N

08 Mar

Everton

H

2

0

W

U

N

04 Mar

Liverpool

A

1

0

W

U

N

28 Feb

Man United

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Southampton

A

1

1

D

U

G

15 Feb

Newcastle

H

2

0

W

U

N


Brighton in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Brighton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Brighton in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Brighton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brighton’s performance as a guest.
Brighton, as a guest, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 42.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Brighton scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Brighton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Apr

Everton

H

0

0

D

U

N

04 Apr

Man United

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Mar

Newcastle

H

3

0

W

O

N

14 Mar

Southampton

A

2

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Leicester

H

1

2

L

O

G

27 Feb

West Brom

A

0

1

L

U

N

22 Feb

Crystal Palace

H

1

2

L

O

G

13 Feb

Aston Villa

H

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Chelsea is 0.312 and for the Brighton is -0.133.
The home dynamic for the Chelsea is 0.249 and the dynamic as a guest for the Brighton is 0.1.
The offensive ability for the Chelsea is 0.256 and for the Brighton is 0.217.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Chelsea is 0.731 and for the Brighton is -0.13.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Chelsea and the red line for guest team, Brighton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Chelsea

17%

38%

24%

21%

Brighton

39%

36%

16%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Chelsea to score 1.69 goals and Brighton to score 0.67 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and the home team Chelsea to win by 1.02 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Chelsea to score 1.49 goals and Brighton to score 0.94 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and the home team Chelsea to win by 0.55 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.93

0-1

3.61

1

4.76

2-3

1.97

2

3.83

4+

4.63

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.85

Un 1.5

3.61

5

18.87

Ov 2.5

2.16

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.86

Gg

1.98

Ov 3.5

4.63

NoG

2.02

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.88

4.13

4.40

2-3 goals

1.91

3.67

4.87

4+ goals

1.96

3.79

4.41

Ov 1.5

1.93

3.71

4.73

Un 1.5

1.88

4.13

4.40

Ov 2.5

1.65

8.11

3.70

Un 2.5

2.22

2.62

5.91

Ov 3.5

1.96

3.79

4.41

Un 3.5

1.90

3.82

4.69

Goal-Goal

2.54

2.59

4.55

No Goal

1.53

7.39

4.71

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.84

6.44

3.31

NG+Un 2.5

1.65

7.39

4.40


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Aston Villa vs Man City at 21 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Aston Villa and Man City for Premier League (England), which will take place on 21 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Aston Villa

8.80

3.57

16.6

Draw

4.86

3.91

5.0

Man City

1.38

2.16

-26.2

Over 2.5

1.69

1.96

-8.2

Under 2.5

2.21

2.04

3.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Aston Villa, Draw, Under 2.5 (16.6 %, 5 %, 3.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Aston Villa in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Aston Villa in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Aston Villa’s performance at home.
Aston Villa, at home, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 47.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Aston Villa was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Liverpool

A

1

2

L

O

G

04 Apr

Fulham

H

3

1

W

O

G

21 Mar

Tottenham

H

0

2

L

U

N

12 Mar

Newcastle

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Mar

Wolves

H

0

0

D

U

N

03 Mar

Sheffield United

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Feb

Leeds

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Feb

Leicester

H

1

2

L

O

G


Man City in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Man City in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Man City’s performance as a guest.
Man City, as a guest, had 11 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 36 points, 80.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Man City was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Leeds

H

1

2

L

O

G

03 Apr

Leicester

A

2

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Fulham

A

3

0

W

O

N

10 Mar

Southampton

H

5

2

W

O

G

07 Mar

Man United

H

0

2

L

U

N

02 Mar

Wolves

H

4

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

West Ham

H

2

1

W

O

G

21 Feb

Arsenal

A

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Aston Villa is -0.488 and for the Man City is 0.311.
The home dynamic for the Aston Villa is -0.213 and the dynamic as a guest for the Man City is 1.
The offensive ability for the Aston Villa is -0.103 and for the Man City is 0.652.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Aston Villa is -0.585 and for the Man City is -0.157.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Aston Villa and the red line for guest team, Man City.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Aston Villa

35%

30%

25%

10%

Man City

22%

32%

25%

22%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Aston Villa to score 0.59 goals and Man City to score 2.24 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.82 goals in the game and the guest team Man City to win by 1.65 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Aston Villa to score 1.1 goals and Man City to score 1.46 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and the guest team Man City to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.99

0-1

3.95

1

5.68

2-3

2.06

2

4.24

4+

3.83

3

4.00

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.25

Un 1.5

3.95

5

12.66

Ov 2.5

1.96

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

2.04

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

3.83

NoG

2.04

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.78

3.29

2.32

2-3 goals

3.10

5.12

2.08

4+ goals

4.58

3.11

2.18

Ov 1.5

3.49

4.17

2.11

Un 1.5

3.78

3.29

2.32

Ov 2.5

3.23

6.08

1.90

Un 2.5

3.98

2.84

2.52

Ov 3.5

4.58

3.11

2.18

Un 3.5

3.30

4.30

2.15

Goal-Goal

3.74

2.84

2.62

No Goal

3.39

6.38

1.83

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.04

4.93

2.13

NG+Un 2.5

3.20

6.38

2.03


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Tottenham vs Southampton at 21 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Tottenham and Southampton for Premier League (England), which will take place on 21 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Tottenham

1.81

1.76

1.6

Draw

3.79

4.00

-1.4

Southampton

4.45

5.43

-4.1

Over 2.5

1.75

2.07

-8.8

Under 2.5

2.12

1.93

4.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Tottenham, Under 2.5 (1.6 %, 4.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Tottenham in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Tottenham scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Tottenham in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Tottenham scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Tottenham’s performance at home.
Tottenham, at home, had 7 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 53.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Tottenham scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Tottenham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Apr

Everton

A

2

2

D

O

G

11 Apr

Man United

H

1

3

L

O

G

04 Apr

Newcastle

A

2

2

D

O

G

21 Mar

Aston Villa

A

2

0

W

U

N

14 Mar

Arsenal

A

1

2

L

O

G

07 Mar

Crystal Palace

H

4

1

W

O

G

04 Mar

Fulham

A

1

0

W

U

N

28 Feb

Burnley

H

4

0

W

O

N


Southampton in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Southampton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Southampton in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Southampton scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Southampton’s performance as a guest.
Southampton, as a guest, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Southampton scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Southampton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Apr

West Brom

A

0

3

L

O

N

04 Apr

Burnley

H

3

2

W

O

G

14 Mar

Brighton

H

1

2

L

O

G

10 Mar

Man City

A

2

5

L

O

G

06 Mar

Sheffield United

A

2

0

W

U

N

01 Mar

Everton

A

0

1

L

U

N

23 Feb

Leeds

A

0

3

L

O

N

20 Feb

Chelsea

H

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Tottenham is -0.135 and for the Southampton is -0.333.
The home dynamic for the Tottenham is -0.086 and the dynamic as a guest for the Southampton is -0.3.
The offensive ability for the Tottenham is 1 and for the Southampton is 0.217.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Tottenham is -0.554 and for the Southampton is -0.652.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Tottenham and the red line for guest team, Southampton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Tottenham

15%

39%

18%

28%

Southampton

42%

36%

15%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Tottenham to score 1.8 goals and Southampton to score 0.94 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.74 goals in the game and the home team Tottenham to win by 0.86 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Tottenham to score 1.6 goals and Southampton to score 0.87 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the home team Tottenham to win by 0.73 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

16.13

0-1

3.58

1

4.61

2-3

2.04

2

4.18

4+

4.37

3

3.97

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.45

Un 1.5

3.58

5

18.18

Ov 2.5

2.08

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.93

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

4.37

NoG

1.98

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.71

4.50

5.17

2-3 goals

1.90

3.48

5.34

4+ goals

1.57

4.98

6.19

Ov 1.5

1.78

3.85

5.58

Un 1.5

1.71

4.50

5.17

Ov 2.5

1.46

10.46

4.54

Un 2.5

2.18

2.55

6.73

Ov 3.5

1.57

4.98

6.19

Un 3.5

1.83

3.79

5.27

Goal-Goal

2.34

2.64

5.15

No Goal

1.42

8.15

5.80

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.67

7.67

3.68

NG+Un 2.5

1.58

8.15

4.90


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Leicester vs West Brom at 22 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Leicester and West Brom for Premier League (England), which will take place on 22 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Leicester

1.59

1.76

-6.1

Draw

4.07

4.02

0.3

West Brom

5.89

5.46

1.3

Over 2.5

1.95

2.05

-2.5

Under 2.5

1.88

1.95

-1.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, West Brom (0.3 %, 1.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Leicester in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Leicester scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leicester in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Leicester scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leicester’s performance at home.
Leicester, at home, had 7 wins, one draw, 7 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 48.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Leicester scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leicester was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Apr

West Ham

A

2

3

L

O

G

03 Apr

Man City

H

0

2

L

U

N

14 Mar

Sheffield United

H

5

0

W

O

N

06 Mar

Brighton

A

2

1

W

O

G

03 Mar

Burnley

A

1

1

D

U

G

28 Feb

Arsenal

H

1

3

L

O

G

21 Feb

Aston Villa

A

2

1

W

O

G

13 Feb

Liverpool

H

3

1

W

O

G


West Brom in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, West Brom scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, West Brom in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, West Brom scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at West Brom’s performance as a guest.
West Brom, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, West Brom scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of West Brom was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Apr

Southampton

H

3

0

W

O

N

03 Apr

Chelsea

A

5

2

W

O

G

13 Mar

Crystal Palace

A

0

1

L

U

N

07 Mar

Newcastle

H

0

0

D

U

N

04 Mar

Everton

H

0

1

L

U

N

27 Feb

Brighton

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Burnley

A

0

0

D

U

N

14 Feb

Man United

H

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Leicester is -0.321 and for the West Brom is 0.2.
The home dynamic for the Leicester is -0.041 and the dynamic as a guest for the West Brom is -0.778.
The offensive ability for the Leicester is 0.552 and for the West Brom is -0.13.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Leicester is -0.513 and for the West Brom is 0.157.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Leicester and the red line for guest team, West Brom.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Leicester

15%

40%

16%

30%

West Brom

42%

36%

15%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Leicester to score 1.8 goals and West Brom to score 0.7 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Leicester to win by 1.1 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Leicester to score 1.61 goals and West Brom to score 0.87 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the home team Leicester to win by 0.74 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

16.13

0-1

3.56

1

4.57

2-3

2.07

2

4.31

4+

4.26

3

3.97

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.29

Un 1.5

3.56

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.05

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.95

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

4.26

NoG

1.98

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-