# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Chelsea vs Brighton at 20 April 2021**** Aston Villa vs Man City at 21 April 2021**** Tottenham vs Southampton at 21 April 2021**** Leicester vs West Brom at 22 April 2021**

###
Chelsea vs Brighton at 20 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Chelsea** and **Brighton** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **20 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Chelsea |
1.62 |
1.92 |
-9.6 |

Draw |
3.89 |
3.83 |
0.4 |

Brighton |
5.99 |
4.63 |
4.9 |

Over 2.5 |
2.12 |
2.16 |
-0.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.75 |
1.86 |
-3.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Brighton (0.4 %, 4.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Chelsea** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Chelsea scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Chelsea** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Chelsea scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Chelsea’s performance** at home**.

Chelsea,** at home**, had 7 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 57.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Chelsea scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Chelsea was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Apr |
Crystal Palace |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Apr |
West Brom |
H |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Leeds |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

08 Mar |
Everton |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

04 Mar |
Liverpool |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Feb |
Man United |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Southampton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

15 Feb |
Newcastle |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Brighton** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Brighton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Brighton** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Brighton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brighton’s performance** as a guest**.

Brighton,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 42.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Brighton scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Brighton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Apr |
Everton |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

04 Apr |
Man United |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Newcastle |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

14 Mar |
Southampton |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Leicester |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
West Brom |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

22 Feb |
Crystal Palace |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Aston Villa |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Chelsea** is **0.312** and for the **Brighton** is **-0.133.**

The home dynamic for the **Chelsea** is **0.249** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Brighton** is **0.1.**

The offensive ability for the **Chelsea** is **0.256** and for the **Brighton** is **0.217.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Chelsea** is **0.731** and for the **Brighton** is **-0.13.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Chelsea** and the red line for guest team, **Brighton. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Chelsea |
17% |
38% |
24% |
21% |

Brighton |
39% |
36% |
16% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Chelsea** to score **1.69 ** goals and **Brighton** to score **0.67 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.35** goals in the game and the home team **Chelsea ** to win by **1.02** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Chelsea** to score **1.49 ** goals and **Brighton** to score **0.94 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.43** goals in the game and the home team **Chelsea ** to win by **0.55** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.93 |
0-1 |
3.61 |

1 |
4.76 |
2-3 |
1.97 |

2 |
3.83 |
4+ |
4.63 |

3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |

4 |
6.85 |
Un 1.5 |
3.61 |

5 |
18.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.86 |

Gg |
1.98 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.63 |

NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.88 |
4.13 |
4.40 |

2-3 goals |
1.91 |
3.67 |
4.87 |

4+ goals |
1.96 |
3.79 |
4.41 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.93 |
3.71 |
4.73 |

Un 1.5 |
1.88 |
4.13 |
4.40 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.65 |
8.11 |
3.70 |

Un 2.5 |
2.22 |
2.62 |
5.91 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.96 |
3.79 |
4.41 |

Un 3.5 |
1.90 |
3.82 |
4.69 |

Goal-Goal |
2.54 |
2.59 |
4.55 |

No Goal |
1.53 |
7.39 |
4.71 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.84 |
6.44 |
3.31 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.65 |
7.39 |
4.40 |

####
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###
Aston Villa vs Man City at 21 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Aston Villa** and **Man City** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **21 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Aston Villa |
8.80 |
3.57 |
16.6 |

Draw |
4.86 |
3.91 |
5.0 |

Man City |
1.38 |
2.16 |
-26.2 |

Over 2.5 |
1.69 |
1.96 |
-8.2 |

Under 2.5 |
2.21 |
2.04 |
3.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Aston Villa, Draw, Under 2.5 (16.6 %, 5 %, 3.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Aston Villa** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Aston Villa** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Aston Villa’s performance** at home**.

Aston Villa,** at home**, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 47.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Aston Villa was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Apr |
Liverpool |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

04 Apr |
Fulham |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Mar |
Tottenham |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Mar |
Newcastle |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Mar |
Wolves |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

03 Mar |
Sheffield United |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Leeds |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Feb |
Leicester |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Man City** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Man City scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Man City** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Man City** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Man City’s performance** as a guest**.

Man City,** as a guest**, had 11 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 36 points, 80.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Man City scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Man City was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Apr |
Leeds |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Apr |
Leicester |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Fulham |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

10 Mar |
Southampton |
H |
5 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Mar |
Man United |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Wolves |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
West Ham |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Feb |
Arsenal |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Aston Villa** is **-0.488** and for the **Man City** is **0.311.**

The home dynamic for the **Aston Villa** is **-0.213** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Man City** is **1.**

The offensive ability for the **Aston Villa** is **-0.103** and for the **Man City** is **0.652.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Aston Villa** is **-0.585** and for the **Man City** is **-0.157.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Aston Villa** and the red line for guest team, **Man City. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Aston Villa |
35% |
30% |
25% |
10% |

Man City |
22% |
32% |
25% |
22% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Aston Villa** to score **0.59 ** goals and **Man City** to score **2.24 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.82** goals in the game and the guest team **Man City ** to win by **1.65** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Aston Villa** to score **1.1 ** goals and **Man City** to score **1.46 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.56** goals in the game and the guest team **Man City ** to win by **0.36** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.99 |
0-1 |
3.95 |

1 |
5.68 |
2-3 |
2.06 |

2 |
4.24 |
4+ |
3.83 |

3 |
4.00 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.25 |
Un 1.5 |
3.95 |

5 |
12.66 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.96 |

6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
2.04 |

Gg |
1.96 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.83 |

NoG |
2.04 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.78 |
3.29 |
2.32 |

2-3 goals |
3.10 |
5.12 |
2.08 |

4+ goals |
4.58 |
3.11 |
2.18 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.49 |
4.17 |
2.11 |

Un 1.5 |
3.78 |
3.29 |
2.32 |

Ov 2.5 |
3.23 |
6.08 |
1.90 |

Un 2.5 |
3.98 |
2.84 |
2.52 |

Ov 3.5 |
4.58 |
3.11 |
2.18 |

Un 3.5 |
3.30 |
4.30 |
2.15 |

Goal-Goal |
3.74 |
2.84 |
2.62 |

No Goal |
3.39 |
6.38 |
1.83 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.04 |
4.93 |
2.13 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.20 |
6.38 |
2.03 |

####
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###
Tottenham vs Southampton at 21 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Tottenham** and **Southampton** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **21 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Tottenham |
1.81 |
1.76 |
1.6 |

Draw |
3.79 |
4.00 |
-1.4 |

Southampton |
4.45 |
5.43 |
-4.1 |

Over 2.5 |
1.75 |
2.07 |
-8.8 |

Under 2.5 |
2.12 |
1.93 |
4.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Tottenham, Under 2.5 (1.6 %, 4.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Tottenham** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Tottenham** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Tottenham** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Tottenham** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Tottenham’s performance** at home**.

Tottenham,** at home**, had 7 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 53.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Tottenham scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Tottenham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Apr |
Everton |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

11 Apr |
Man United |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

04 Apr |
Newcastle |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

21 Mar |
Aston Villa |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

14 Mar |
Arsenal |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Mar |
Crystal Palace |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

04 Mar |
Fulham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Feb |
Burnley |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

**Southampton** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Southampton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Southampton** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Southampton scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Southampton’s performance** as a guest**.

Southampton,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Southampton scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Southampton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Apr |
West Brom |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

04 Apr |
Burnley |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

14 Mar |
Brighton |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Mar |
Man City |
A |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Sheffield United |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Mar |
Everton |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Feb |
Leeds |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

20 Feb |
Chelsea |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **Tottenham** is **-0.135** and for the **Southampton** is **-0.333.**

The home dynamic for the **Tottenham** is **-0.086** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Southampton** is **-0.3.**

The offensive ability for the **Tottenham** is **1** and for the **Southampton** is **0.217.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Tottenham** is **-0.554** and for the **Southampton** is **-0.652.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Tottenham** and the red line for guest team, **Southampton. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Tottenham |
15% |
39% |
18% |
28% |

Southampton |
42% |
36% |
15% |
7% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Tottenham** to score **1.8 ** goals and **Southampton** to score **0.94 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.74** goals in the game and the home team **Tottenham ** to win by **0.86** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Tottenham** to score **1.6 ** goals and **Southampton** to score **0.87 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.47** goals in the game and the home team **Tottenham ** to win by **0.73** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
16.13 |
0-1 |
3.58 |

1 |
4.61 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.18 |
4+ |
4.37 |

3 |
3.97 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
6.45 |
Un 1.5 |
3.58 |

5 |
18.18 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.08 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.93 |

Gg |
2.02 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.37 |

NoG |
1.98 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.71 |
4.50 |
5.17 |

2-3 goals |
1.90 |
3.48 |
5.34 |

4+ goals |
1.57 |
4.98 |
6.19 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.78 |
3.85 |
5.58 |

Un 1.5 |
1.71 |
4.50 |
5.17 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.46 |
10.46 |
4.54 |

Un 2.5 |
2.18 |
2.55 |
6.73 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.57 |
4.98 |
6.19 |

Un 3.5 |
1.83 |
3.79 |
5.27 |

Goal-Goal |
2.34 |
2.64 |
5.15 |

No Goal |
1.42 |
8.15 |
5.80 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.67 |
7.67 |
3.68 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.58 |
8.15 |
4.90 |

####
Go to Top

###
Leicester vs West Brom at 22 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Leicester** and **West Brom** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **22 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Leicester |
1.59 |
1.76 |
-6.1 |

Draw |
4.07 |
4.02 |
0.3 |

West Brom |
5.89 |
5.46 |
1.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.95 |
2.05 |
-2.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.88 |
1.95 |
-1.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, West Brom (0.3 %, 1.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Leicester** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Leicester scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Leicester** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Leicester scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leicester’s performance** at home**.

Leicester,** at home**, had 7 wins, one draw, 7 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 48.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Leicester scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Leicester was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

11 Apr |
West Ham |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Apr |
Man City |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Mar |
Sheffield United |
H |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

06 Mar |
Brighton |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Mar |
Burnley |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Feb |
Arsenal |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Feb |
Aston Villa |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Liverpool |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**West Brom** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, West Brom scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **West Brom** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, West Brom scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at West Brom’s performance** as a guest**.

West Brom,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, West Brom scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of West Brom was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Apr |
Southampton |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

03 Apr |
Chelsea |
A |
5 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Crystal Palace |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Mar |
Newcastle |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

04 Mar |
Everton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Brighton |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Burnley |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Man United |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **Leicester** is **-0.321** and for the **West Brom** is **0.2.**

The home dynamic for the **Leicester** is **-0.041** and the dynamic as a guest for the **West Brom** is **-0.778.**

The offensive ability for the **Leicester** is **0.552** and for the **West Brom** is **-0.13.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Leicester** is **-0.513** and for the **West Brom** is **0.157.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Leicester** and the red line for guest team, **West Brom. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Leicester |
15% |
40% |
16% |
30% |

West Brom |
42% |
36% |
15% |
7% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Leicester** to score **1.8 ** goals and **West Brom** to score **0.7 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.5** goals in the game and the home team **Leicester ** to win by **1.1** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Leicester** to score **1.61 ** goals and **West Brom** to score **0.87 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.48** goals in the game and the home team **Leicester ** to win by **0.74** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
16.13 |
0-1 |
3.56 |

1 |
4.57 |
2-3 |
2.07 |

2 |
4.31 |
4+ |
4.26 |

3 |
3.97 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
6.29 |
Un 1.5 |
3.56 |

5 |
17.86 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.05 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.95 |

Gg |
2.02 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.26 |

NoG |
1.98 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |