2021 04 20 Primeira Liga (Portugal)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Pacos Ferreira vs Farense at 20 April 2021
Sp Braga vs Boavista at 21 April 2021
Santa Clara vs Moreirense at 21 April 2021
Maritimo vs Rio Ave at 21 April 2021
Sp Lisbon vs Belenenses at 22 April 2021
Portimonense vs Benfica at 22 April 2021
Gil Vicente vs Famalicao at 22 April 2021
Tondela vs Nacional at 22 April 2021


Pacos Ferreira vs Farense at 20 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Pacos Ferreira and Farense for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 20 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Pacos Ferreira

2.36

1.76

14.4

Draw

3.16

4.07

-7.1

Farense

3.10

5.38

-13.7

Over 2.5

2.33

2.17

3.2

Under 2.5

1.60

1.86

-8.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Pacos Ferreira, Over 2.5 (14.4 %, 3.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Pacos Ferreira in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pacos Ferreira in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Pacos Ferreira didn’t score to any of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Pacos Ferreira’s performance at home.
Pacos Ferreira, at home, had 9 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 29 points, 74.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pacos Ferreira was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Apr

Boavista

A

0

2

L

U

N

10 Apr

Benfica

H

0

5

L

O

N

04 Apr

Famalicao

A

0

2

L

U

N

20 Mar

Moreirense

H

3

0

W

O

N

14 Mar

Porto

A

0

2

L

U

N

05 Mar

Nacional

H

2

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

Santa Clara

A

0

3

L

O

N

21 Feb

Guimaraes

H

2

1

W

O

G


Farense in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Farense scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Farense in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Farense scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Farense’s performance as a guest.
Farense, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 23.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Farense scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Farense was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Apr

Sp Lisbon

H

0

1

L

U

N

10 Apr

Maritimo

A

0

1

L

U

N

05 Apr

Sp Braga

H

1

2

L

O

G

21 Mar

Boavista

A

1

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Belenenses

H

0

1

L

U

N

07 Mar

Rio Ave

A

0

2

L

U

N

27 Feb

Famalicao

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Feb

Benfica

H

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Pacos Ferreira is -0.6 and for the Farense is -0.681.
The home dynamic for the Pacos Ferreira is 0.801 and the dynamic as a guest for the Farense is -0.511.
The offensive ability for the Pacos Ferreira is -0.704 and for the Farense is -0.565.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Pacos Ferreira is -0.554 and for the Farense is -0.626.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Pacos Ferreira and the red line for guest team, Farense.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Pacos Ferreira

19%

31%

26%

24%

Farense

44%

36%

14%

6%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Pacos Ferreira to score 1.2 goals and Farense to score 0.99 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.18 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Pacos Ferreira to score 1.55 goals and Farense to score 0.83 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the home team Pacos Ferreira to win by 0.72 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.20

0-1

3.48

1

4.88

2-3

1.98

2

3.97

4+

4.83

3

3.95

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

7.04

Un 1.5

3.48

5

20.41

Ov 2.5

2.17

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.86

Gg

2.18

Ov 3.5

4.83

NoG

1.85

Un 3.5

1.26

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.11

3.50

4.16

2-3 goals

1.62

4.43

6.39

4+ goals

1.74

4.06

5.59

Ov 1.5

1.65

4.32

6.14

Un 1.5

2.11

3.50

4.16

Ov 2.5

1.45

9.02

5.05

Un 2.5

2.16

2.75

5.73

Ov 3.5

1.74

4.06

5.59

Un 3.5

1.77

4.04

5.35

Goal-Goal

2.14

2.78

5.80

No Goal

1.53

6.60

5.10

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.61

6.75

4.35

NG+Un 2.5

1.71

6.60

4.52


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Sp Braga vs Boavista at 21 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sp Braga and Boavista for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 21 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sp Braga

1.46

2.15

-22.0

Draw

4.22

3.70

3.3

Boavista

6.84

3.79

11.8

Over 2.5

1.88

2.36

-10.8

Under 2.5

1.92

1.73

5.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Boavista, Under 2.5 (3.3 %, 11.8 %, 5.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sp Braga in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Braga scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sp Braga in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Braga scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sp Braga’s performance at home.
Sp Braga, at home, had 9 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 29 points, 74.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Braga scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sp Braga was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Rio Ave

A

0

0

D

U

N

11 Apr

Belenenses

H

1

1

D

U

G

05 Apr

Farense

A

2

1

W

O

G

21 Mar

Benfica

H

0

2

L

U

N

15 Mar

Famalicao

A

2

2

D

O

G

09 Mar

Guimaraes

H

3

0

W

O

N

28 Feb

Nacional

A

2

1

W

O

G

21 Feb

Tondela

H

4

2

W

O

G


Boavista in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Boavista scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Boavista in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Boavista scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Boavista’s performance as a guest.
Boavista, as a guest, had 2 wins, 7 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Boavista scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Boavista was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Apr

Pacos Ferreira

H

2

0

W

U

N

10 Apr

Rio Ave

H

3

3

D

O

G

04 Apr

Belenenses

A

2

0

W

U

N

21 Mar

Farense

H

0

1

L

U

N

13 Mar

Benfica

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Mar

Famalicao

H

3

0

W

O

N

26 Feb

Guimaraes

A

1

2

L

O

G

19 Feb

Moreirense

H

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Sp Braga is 0.098 and for the Boavista is 0.2.
The home dynamic for the Sp Braga is 0.602 and the dynamic as a guest for the Boavista is -0.422.
The offensive ability for the Sp Braga is 0.13 and for the Boavista is 0.278.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Sp Braga is -0.067 and for the Boavista is 0.191.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sp Braga and the red line for guest team, Boavista.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sp Braga

26%

34%

22%

18%

Boavista

42%

30%

21%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sp Braga to score 1.93 goals and Boavista to score 0.63 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and the home team Sp Braga to win by 1.3 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sp Braga to score 1.32 goals and Boavista to score 0.94 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.26 goals in the game and the home team Sp Braga to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.26

0-1

3.06

1

4.57

2-3

2.08

2

4.00

4+

5.21

3

4.33

Ov 1.5

1.49

4

8.00

Un 1.5

3.06

5

18.52

Ov 2.5

2.36

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.73

Gg

2.31

Ov 3.5

5.21

NoG

1.76

Un 3.5

1.24

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.30

3.03

4.25

2-3 goals

2.05

4.72

3.34

4+ goals

2.13

3.20

4.57

Ov 1.5

2.07

4.15

3.62

Un 1.5

2.30

3.03

4.25

Ov 2.5

1.83

7.05

3.20

Un 2.5

2.44

2.75

4.40

Ov 3.5

2.13

3.20

4.57

Un 3.5

2.14

3.85

3.66

Goal-Goal

2.74

2.67

3.83

No Goal

1.83

5.25

3.78

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.09

5.52

2.93

NG+Un 2.5

2.01

5.25

3.63


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Santa Clara vs Moreirense at 21 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Santa Clara and Moreirense for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 21 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Santa Clara

1.93

2.42

-10.5

Draw

3.28

3.65

-3.1

Moreirense

4.11

3.21

6.8

Over 2.5

2.29

2.37

-1.5

Under 2.5

1.61

1.73

-4.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Moreirense (6.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Santa Clara in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Santa Clara in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Santa Clara’s performance at home.
Santa Clara, at home, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 46.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Santa Clara was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Guimaraes

A

0

1

L

U

N

11 Apr

Nacional

H

5

1

W

O

G

03 Apr

Porto

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Mar

Tondela

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Portimonense

H

2

0

W

U

N

05 Mar

Sp Lisbon

A

1

2

L

O

G

27 Feb

Pacos Ferreira

H

3

0

W

O

N

20 Feb

Gil Vicente

A

0

1

L

U

N


Moreirense in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Moreirense scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Moreirense in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Moreirense scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Moreirense’s performance as a guest.
Moreirense, as a guest, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 43.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Moreirense scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Moreirense was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Tondela

H

2

3

L

O

G

11 Apr

Gil Vicente

A

2

1

W

O

G

05 Apr

Sp Lisbon

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Mar

Pacos Ferreira

A

0

3

L

O

N

14 Mar

Rio Ave

H

1

1

D

U

G

07 Mar

Maritimo

A

2

0

W

U

N

01 Mar

Belenenses

H

2

2

D

O

G

19 Feb

Boavista

A

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Santa Clara is -0.302 and for the Moreirense is -0.037.
The home dynamic for the Santa Clara is -0.24 and the dynamic as a guest for the Moreirense is -0.122.
The offensive ability for the Santa Clara is 0.525 and for the Moreirense is 0.626.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Santa Clara is -0.585 and for the Moreirense is -0.678.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Santa Clara and the red line for guest team, Moreirense.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Santa Clara

29%

35%

21%

15%

Moreirense

39%

28%

24%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Santa Clara to score 1.39 goals and Moreirense to score 0.82 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.2 goals in the game and the home team Santa Clara to win by 0.57 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Santa Clara to score 1.22 goals and Moreirense to score 1.03 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.01

0-1

3.05

1

4.61

2-3

2.09

2

4.00

4+

5.21

3

4.39

Ov 1.5

1.49

4

8.06

Un 1.5

3.05

5

18.18

Ov 2.5

2.38

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.73

Gg

2.30

Ov 3.5

5.21

NoG

1.78

Un 3.5

1.24

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.39

2.95

4.10

2-3 goals

2.43

4.88

2.61

4+ goals

2.43

3.00

3.92

Ov 1.5

2.43

4.14

2.89

Un 1.5

2.39

2.95

4.10

Ov 2.5

2.15

6.56

2.61

Un 2.5

2.65

2.77

3.83

Ov 3.5

2.43

3.00

3.92

Un 3.5

2.41

3.86

3.06

Goal-Goal

3.18

2.69

3.20

No Goal

2.04

5.07

3.20

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.46

5.27

2.48

NG+Un 2.5

2.20

5.07

3.18


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Maritimo vs Rio Ave at 21 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Maritimo and Rio Ave for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 21 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Maritimo

2.84

2.40

6.5

Draw

3.07

3.62

-4.9

Rio Ave

2.59

3.25

-7.8

Over 2.5

2.44

2.17

5.1

Under 2.5

1.55

1.85

-10.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Maritimo, Over 2.5 (6.5 %, 5.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Maritimo in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Maritimo scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Maritimo in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Maritimo scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Maritimo’s performance at home.
Maritimo, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 28.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Maritimo scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Maritimo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Belenenses

A

0

2

L

U

N

10 Apr

Farense

H

1

0

W

U

N

05 Apr

Benfica

A

0

1

L

U

N

21 Mar

Famalicao

H

0

4

L

O

N

12 Mar

Nacional

A

2

1

W

O

G

07 Mar

Moreirense

H

0

2

L

U

N

28 Feb

Portimonense

A

0

0

D

U

N

22 Feb

Porto

H

1

2

L

O

G


Rio Ave in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rio Ave in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rio Ave’s performance as a guest.
Rio Ave, as a guest, had 2 wins, 6 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 30.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rio Ave was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Sp Braga

H

0

0

D

U

N

10 Apr

Boavista

A

3

3

D

O

G

03 Apr

Gil Vicente

H

0

2

L

U

N

21 Mar

Belenenses

H

0

0

D

U

N

14 Mar

Moreirense

A

1

1

D

U

G

07 Mar

Farense

H

2

0

W

U

N

01 Mar

Benfica

A

0

2

L

U

N

21 Feb

Famalicao

H

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Maritimo is -0.507 and for the Rio Ave is -0.037.
The home dynamic for the Maritimo is -1 and the dynamic as a guest for the Rio Ave is -0.411.
The offensive ability for the Maritimo is -0.614 and for the Rio Ave is -0.243.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Maritimo is -0.482 and for the Rio Ave is 0.157.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Maritimo and the red line for guest team, Rio Ave.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Maritimo

26%

34%

22%

17%

Rio Ave

31%

40%

16%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Maritimo to score 1.02 goals and Rio Ave to score 1.09 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.11 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.07 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Maritimo to score 1.31 goals and Rio Ave to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.2 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.20

0-1

3.41

1

4.74

2-3

2.09

2

4.05

4+

4.37

3

4.31

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

6.71

Un 1.5

3.41

5

17.54

Ov 2.5

2.17

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

1.85

Gg

1.97

Ov 3.5

4.37

NoG

2.03

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-