2021 04 20 Segunda Division (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Mirandes vs Tenerife at 21 April 2021


Mirandes vs Tenerife at 21 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Mirandes and Tenerife for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 21 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Mirandes

3.22

2.11

16.3

Draw

2.96

3.68

-6.6

Tenerife

2.38

3.94

-16.6

Over 2.5

2.63

2.27

6.0

Under 2.5

1.45

1.79

-13.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Mirandes, Over 2.5 (16.3 %, 6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Mirandes in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Mirandes scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Mirandes in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Mirandes scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Mirandes’s performance at home.
Mirandes, at home, had 5 wins, 7 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 45.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Mirandes scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Mirandes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

18 Apr

Albacete

A

0

1

L

U

N

14 Apr

Vallecano

A

1

0

W

U

N

11 Apr

Logrones

H

0

1

L

U

N

04 Apr

Sp Gijon

A

2

1

W

O

G

22 Mar

Zaragoza

A

0

1

L

U

N

13 Mar

Espanol

H

2

2

D

O

G

08 Mar

Alcorcon

A

0

4

L

O

N

01 Mar

Malaga

H

1

0

W

U

N


Tenerife in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Tenerife scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Tenerife in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Tenerife scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Tenerife’s performance as a guest.
Tenerife, as a guest, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 25.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Tenerife scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 16 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Tenerife was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

18 Apr

Cartagena

A

0

0

D

U

N

09 Apr

Sp Gijon

H

1

0

W

U

N

03 Apr

Logrones

A

0

1

L

U

N

28 Mar

Las Palmas

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Mar

Malaga

A

1

1

D

U

G

14 Mar

Albacete

H

2

0

W

U

N

06 Mar

Zaragoza

A

0

1

L

U

N

28 Feb

Alcorcon

H

3

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Mirandes is -0.302 and for the Tenerife is 0.148.
The home dynamic for the Mirandes is -0.095 and the dynamic as a guest for the Tenerife is -0.267.
The offensive ability for the Mirandes is -0.256 and for the Tenerife is 0.13.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Mirandes is -0.482 and for the Tenerife is 0.217.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Mirandes and the red line for guest team, Tenerife.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Mirandes

23%

35%

26%

17%

Tenerife

37%

37%

19%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Mirandes to score 0.89 goals and Tenerife to score 1.1 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.99 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.21 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Mirandes to score 1.37 goals and Tenerife to score 0.97 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and the home team Mirandes to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.05

0-1

3.41

1

4.76

2-3

1.99

2

3.79

4+

4.98

3

4.18

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

7.35

Un 1.5

3.41

5

19.23

Ov 2.5

2.27

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.80

Gg

2.05

Ov 3.5

4.98

NoG

1.96

Un 3.5

1.26

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.31

3.53

3.53

2-3 goals

2.00

3.96

4.06

4+ goals

2.14

3.30

4.37

Ov 1.5

2.03

3.74

4.14

Un 1.5

2.31

3.53

3.53

Ov 2.5

1.75

7.21

3.44

Un 2.5

2.51

2.65

4.46

Ov 3.5

2.14

3.30

4.37

Un 3.5

2.10

3.79

3.85

Goal-Goal

2.58

2.60

4.40

No Goal

1.79

6.13

3.58

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.91

5.92

3.25

NG+Un 2.5

1.94

6.13

3.44


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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