2021 04 20 Serie A (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Verona vs Fiorentina at 20 April 2021
Juventus vs Parma at 21 April 2021
Udinese vs Cagliari at 21 April 2021
Spezia vs Inter at 21 April 2021
Milan vs Sassuolo at 21 April 2021
Genoa vs Benevento at 21 April 2021
Crotone vs Sampdoria at 21 April 2021
Bologna vs Torino at 21 April 2021
Roma vs Atalanta at 22 April 2021
Napoli vs Lazio at 22 April 2021


Verona vs Fiorentina at 20 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Verona and Fiorentina for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 20 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Verona

2.63

2.26

6.2

Draw

3.23

3.80

-4.6

Fiorentina

2.87

3.38

-5.3

Over 2.5

2.14

2.04

2.3

Under 2.5

1.74

1.96

-6.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Verona, Over 2.5 (6.2 %, 2.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Verona in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Verona scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Verona in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Verona scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Verona’s performance at home.
Verona, at home, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 42.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Verona scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Verona was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Sampdoria

A

1

3

L

O

G

11 Apr

Lazio

H

0

1

L

U

N

03 Apr

Cagliari

A

2

0

W

U

N

21 Mar

Atalanta

H

0

2

L

U

N

13 Mar

Sassuolo

A

2

3

L

O

G

07 Mar

Milan

H

0

2

L

U

N

03 Mar

Benevento

A

3

0

W

O

N

27 Feb

Juventus

H

1

1

D

U

G


Fiorentina in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Fiorentina scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Fiorentina in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Fiorentina scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Fiorentina’s performance as a guest.
Fiorentina, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Fiorentina scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Fiorentina was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Sassuolo

A

1

3

L

O

G

11 Apr

Atalanta

H

2

3

L

O

G

03 Apr

Genoa

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Mar

Milan

H

2

3

L

O

G

13 Mar

Benevento

A

4

1

W

O

G

07 Mar

Parma

H

3

3

D

O

G

03 Mar

Roma

H

1

2

L

O

G

28 Feb

Udinese

A

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Verona is -0.907 and for the Fiorentina is -0.393.
The home dynamic for the Verona is 0.032 and the dynamic as a guest for the Fiorentina is -0.822.
The offensive ability for the Verona is -0.166 and for the Fiorentina is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Verona is -0.513 and for the Fiorentina is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Verona and the red line for guest team, Fiorentina.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Verona

24%

31%

27%

18%

Fiorentina

34%

32%

23%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Verona to score 1.21 goals and Fiorentina to score 1.13 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Verona to score 1.39 goals and Fiorentina to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.28 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.05

0-1

3.77

1

5.49

2-3

2.04

2

4.08

4+

4.07

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.49

Un 1.5

3.77

5

13.89

Ov 2.5

2.03

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.96

Gg

2.00

Ov 3.5

4.07

NoG

1.99

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.55

3.19

3.40

2-3 goals

2.07

5.06

3.13

4+ goals

2.44

2.96

3.97

Ov 1.5

2.18

4.09

3.37

Un 1.5

2.55

3.19

3.40

Ov 2.5

1.98

5.93

3.06

Un 2.5

2.63

2.83

3.75

Ov 3.5

2.44

2.96

3.97

Un 3.5

2.22

4.20

3.22

Goal-Goal

2.69

2.78

3.73

No Goal

1.96

6.05

3.08

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.17

4.86

3.01

NG+Un 2.5

2.13

6.05

3.04


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Juventus vs Parma at 21 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Juventus and Parma for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 21 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Juventus

1.26

1.83

-24.7

Draw

6.05

3.75

10.1

Parma

10.99

5.35

9.6

Over 2.5

1.49

2.27

-23.1

Under 2.5

2.56

1.79

16.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Parma, Under 2.5 (10.1 %, 9.6 %, 16.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Juventus in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Juventus in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Juventus’s performance at home.
Juventus, at home, had 12 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 38 points, 79.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Juventus was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

18 Apr

Atalanta

A

0

1

L

U

N

11 Apr

Genoa

H

3

1

W

O

G

07 Apr

Napoli

H

2

1

W

O

G

03 Apr

Torino

A

2

2

D

O

G

21 Mar

Benevento

H

0

1

L

U

N

14 Mar

Cagliari

A

3

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Lazio

H

3

1

W

O

G

02 Mar

Spezia

H

3

0

W

O

N


Parma in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Parma scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Parma in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Parma scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Parma’s performance as a guest.
Parma, as a guest, had one win, 6 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 20.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Parma scored in 12 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 13 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Parma was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Cagliari

A

3

4

L

O

G

10 Apr

Milan

H

1

3

L

O

G

03 Apr

Benevento

A

2

2

D

O

G

19 Mar

Genoa

H

1

2

L

O

G

14 Mar

Roma

H

2

0

W

U

N

07 Mar

Fiorentina

A

3

3

D

O

G

04 Mar

Inter

H

1

2

L

O

G

27 Feb

Spezia

A

2

2

D

O

G


The form score for the Juventus is 0.098 and for the Parma is -0.393.
The home dynamic for the Juventus is 0.602 and the dynamic as a guest for the Parma is -0.667.
The offensive ability for the Juventus is 0.166 and for the Parma is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Juventus is -1 and for the Parma is -0.652.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Juventus and the red line for guest team, Parma.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Juventus

23%

19%

39%

19%

Parma

54%

13%

27%

5%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Juventus to score 2.63 goals and Parma to score 0.52 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.16 goals in the game and the home team Juventus to win by 2.11 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Juventus to score 1.54 goals and Parma to score 0.83 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and the home team Juventus to win by 0.71 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

7.81

0-1

3.85

1

7.58

2-3

1.94

2

3.36

4+

4.48

3

4.59

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

7.14

Un 1.5

3.85

5

13.70

Ov 2.5

2.27

6+

100.00

Un 2.5

1.79

Gg

2.87

Ov 3.5

4.48

NoG

1.54

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.55

2.03

8.67

2-3 goals

1.41

21.50

4.06

4+ goals

2.86

1.94

7.43

Ov 1.5

1.67

5.32

4.71

Un 1.5

2.55

2.03

8.67

Ov 2.5

1.89

3.83

4.74

Un 2.5

1.79

3.67

5.94

Ov 3.5

2.86

1.94

7.43

Un 3.5

1.66

5.11

4.94

Goal-Goal

2.72

2.50

4.30

No Goal

1.56

5.09

6.14

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.53

2.82

4.00

NG+Un 2.5

1.71

5.09

5.68


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Udinese vs Cagliari at 21 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Udinese and Cagliari for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 21 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Udinese

2.49

2.21

5.1

Draw

3.27

3.72

-3.7

Cagliari

2.97

3.58

-5.7

Over 2.5

2.08

2.08

0.0

Under 2.5

1.78

1.92

-4.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Udinese (5.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Udinese in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Udinese scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Udinese in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Udinese scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Udinese’s performance at home.
Udinese, at home, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 40.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Udinese scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Udinese was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Crotone

A

2

1

W

O

G

10 Apr

Torino

H

0

1

L

U

N

03 Apr

Atalanta

A

2

3

L

O

G

21 Mar

Lazio

H

0

1

L

U

N

13 Mar

Genoa

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Mar

Sassuolo

H

2

0

W

U

N

03 Mar

Milan

A

1

1

D

U

G

28 Feb

Fiorentina

H

1

0

W

U

N


Cagliari in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Cagliari scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cagliari in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Cagliari scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cagliari’s performance as a guest.
Cagliari, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Cagliari scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cagliari was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Parma

H

4

3

W

O

G

11 Apr

Inter

A

0

1

L

U

N

03 Apr

Verona

H

0

2

L

U

N

20 Mar

Spezia

A

1

2

L

O

G

14 Mar

Juventus

H

1

3

L

O

G

07 Mar

Sampdoria

A

2

2

D

O

G

03 Mar

Bologna

H

1

0

W

U

N

28 Feb

Crotone

A

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Udinese is -0.321 and for the Cagliari is -0.467.
The home dynamic for the Udinese is -0.195 and the dynamic as a guest for the Cagliari is -0.567.
The offensive ability for the Udinese is 0.166 and for the Cagliari is 0.157.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Udinese is -0.617 and for the Cagliari is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Udinese and the red line for guest team, Cagliari.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Udinese

22%

36%

22%

20%

Cagliari

33%

37%

20%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Udinese to score 1.27 goals and Cagliari to score 1.12 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.15 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Udinese to score 1.4 goals and Cagliari to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the home team Udinese to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.89

0-1

3.70

1

5.05

2-3

2.03

2

4.00

4+

4.20

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.45

Un 1.5

3.70

5

15.87

Ov 2.5

2.08

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.92

Gg

1.90

Ov 3.5

4.20

NoG

2.10

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.33

3.75

3.29

2-3 goals

2.24

3.73

3.50

4+ goals

2.03

3.66

4.25

Ov 1.5

2.17

3.71

3.71

Un 1.5

2.33

3.75

3.29

Ov 2.5

1.82

7.40

3.19

Un 2.5

2.77

2.55

4.06

Ov 3.5

2.03

3.66

4.25

Un 3.5

2.27

3.74

3.42

Goal-Goal

2.64

2.66

4.07

No Goal

1.87

6.61

3.17

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.97

6.05

3.05

NG+Un 2.5

2.06

6.61

3.03


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Spezia vs Inter at 21 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Spezia and Inter for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 21 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Spezia

7.91

3.47

16.2

Draw

5.05

3.85

6.2

Inter

1.39

2.21

-26.7

Over 2.5

1.54

2.04

-15.9

Under 2.5

2.46

1.96

10.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Spezia, Draw, Under 2.5 (16.2 %, 6.2 %, 10.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Spezia in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Spezia in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Spezia’s performance at home.
Spezia, at home, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 37.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Spezia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

18 Apr

Bologna

A

1

4

L

O

G

10 Apr

Crotone

H

3

2

W

O

G

03 Apr

Lazio

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Mar

Cagliari

H

2

1

W

O

G

12 Mar

Atalanta

A

1

3

L

O

G

06 Mar

Benevento

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Mar

Juventus

A

0

3

L

O

N

27 Feb

Parma

H

2

2

D

O

G


Inter in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Inter scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Inter in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Inter scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Inter’s performance as a guest.
Inter, as a guest, had 10 wins, 5 draws, one defeat and gathered 35 points, 72.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Inter scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Inter was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

18 Apr

Napoli

A

1

1

D

U

G

11 Apr

Cagliari

H

1

0

W

U

N

07 Apr

Sassuolo

H

2

1

W

O

G

03 Apr

Bologna

A

1

0

W

U

N

14 Mar

Torino

A

2

1

W

O

G

08 Mar

Atalanta

H

1

0

W

U

N

04 Mar

Parma

A

2

1

W

O

G

28 Feb

Genoa

H

3

0

W

O

N


The form score for the Spezia is -0.302 and for the Inter is 0.8.
The home dynamic for the Spezia is -0.511 and the dynamic as a guest for the Inter is 0.733.
The offensive ability for the Spezia is 1 and for the Inter is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Spezia is -1 and for the Inter is 0.13.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Spezia and the red line for guest team, Inter.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Spezia

37%

28%

27%

9%

Inter

28%

24%

26%

21%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Spezia to score 0.66 goals and Inter to score 2.4 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.06 goals in the game and the guest team Inter to win by 1.74 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Spezia to score 1.08 goals and Inter to score 1.41 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the guest team Inter to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.62

0-1

3.70

1

6.02

2-3

2.08

2

4.17

4+

3.98

3

4.17

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.58

Un 1.5

3.70

5

12.35

Ov 2.5

2.04

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.96

Gg

2.20

Ov 3.5

3.98

NoG

1.83

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at