# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Lecce vs Cittadella at 20 April 2021**** Virtus Entella vs Vicenza at 20 April 2021**** Venezia vs Chievo at 20 April 2021**** Reggiana vs Pordenone at 20 April 2021**** Cremonese vs Reggina at 20 April 2021**** Cosenza vs Pescara at 20 April 2021**** Brescia vs Spal at 20 April 2021**** Ascoli vs Empoli at 20 April 2021**** Salernitana vs Monza at 20 April 2021**** Frosinone vs Pisa at 20 April 2021**

###
Lecce vs Cittadella at 20 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Lecce** and **Cittadella** for **Serie B (Italy)**, which will take place on **20 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Lecce |
1.95 |
2.23 |
-6.4 |

Draw |
3.28 |
3.77 |
-4.0 |

Cittadella |
3.79 |
3.50 |
2.2 |

Over 2.5 |
1.89 |
2.11 |
-5.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.88 |
1.90 |
-0.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Cittadella (2.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Lecce** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Lecce** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Lecce** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Lecce** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lecce’s performance** at home**.

Lecce,** at home**, had 6 wins, 8 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 51.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Lecce scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 13 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Lecce was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Apr |
Vicenza |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Spal |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Pisa |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Salernitana |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Frosinone |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

16 Mar |
Venezia |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Chievo |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Mar |
Reggiana |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

**Cittadella** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Cittadella scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cittadella** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Cittadella** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cittadella’s performance** as a guest**.

Cittadella,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 39.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Cittadella scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cittadella was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Apr |
Chievo |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Frosinone |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

05 Apr |
Reggina |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Apr |
Vicenza |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Spal |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Mar |
Salernitana |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 Mar |
Pisa |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Mar |
Empoli |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **Lecce** is **0.702** and for the **Cittadella** is **-0.111.**

The home dynamic for the **Lecce** is **-0.149** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Cittadella** is **0.033.**

The offensive ability for the **Lecce** is **1** and for the **Cittadella** is **-0.043.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Lecce** is **0.347** and for the **Cittadella** is **-0.217.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Lecce** and the red line for guest team, **Cittadella. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Lecce |
24% |
30% |
31% |
15% |

Cittadella |
34% |
35% |
20% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Lecce** to score **1.56 ** goals and **Cittadella** to score **0.98 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.53** goals in the game and the home team **Lecce ** to win by **0.58** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Lecce** to score **1.37 ** goals and **Cittadella** to score **1.08 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.45** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.29** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.50 |
0-1 |
3.76 |

1 |
5.38 |
2-3 |
1.98 |

2 |
3.85 |
4+ |
4.41 |

3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
6.80 |
Un 1.5 |
3.76 |

5 |
15.62 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.12 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.90 |

Gg |
1.99 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.41 |

NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.56 |
3.33 |
3.24 |

2-3 goals |
1.90 |
4.76 |
3.80 |

4+ goals |
2.84 |
2.91 |
3.29 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.12 |
3.98 |
3.62 |

Un 1.5 |
2.56 |
3.33 |
3.24 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.97 |
6.05 |
3.05 |

Un 2.5 |
2.49 |
2.83 |
4.08 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.84 |
2.91 |
3.29 |

Un 3.5 |
2.08 |
4.15 |
3.59 |

Goal-Goal |
2.66 |
2.73 |
3.89 |

No Goal |
1.90 |
6.20 |
3.20 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.10 |
5.08 |
3.07 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.99 |
6.20 |
3.26 |

####
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###
Virtus Entella vs Vicenza at 20 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Virtus Entella** and **Vicenza** for **Serie B (Italy)**, which will take place on **20 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Virtus Entella |
3.47 |
2.79 |
7.0 |

Draw |
3.17 |
3.51 |
-3.1 |

Vicenza |
2.33 |
2.81 |
-7.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.17 |
2.24 |
-1.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.73 |
1.81 |
-2.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Virtus Entella (7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Virtus Entella** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Virtus Entella** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Virtus Entella’s performance** at home**.

Virtus Entella,** at home**, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 25.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Virtus Entella was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Apr |
Salernitana |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

05 Apr |
Pordenone |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

02 Apr |
Monza |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Mar |
Empoli |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Mar |
Cremonese |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Mar |
Spal |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Ascoli |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Lecce |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Vicenza** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Vicenza scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Vicenza** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Vicenza scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Vicenza’s performance** as a guest**.

Vicenza,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 39.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Vicenza scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Vicenza was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Apr |
Lecce |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

11 Apr |
Reggina |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

05 Apr |
Ascoli |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
Cittadella |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Pescara |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Mar |
Cosenza |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Mar |
Empoli |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

08 Mar |
Chievo |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Virtus Entella** is **-0.953** and for the **Vicenza** is **-0.244.**

The home dynamic for the **Virtus Entella** is **-0.566** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Vicenza** is **0.**

The offensive ability for the **Virtus Entella** is **-1** and for the **Vicenza** is **0.565.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Virtus Entella** is **-0.617** and for the **Vicenza** is **-0.278.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Virtus Entella** and the red line for guest team, **Vicenza. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Virtus Entella |
27% |
39% |
24% |
11% |

Vicenza |
28% |
38% |
21% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Virtus Entella** to score **1 ** goals and **Vicenza** to score **1.32 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.32** goals in the game and the guest team **Vicenza ** to win by **0.32** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Virtus Entella** to score **1.19 ** goals and **Vicenza** to score **1.19 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.38** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.52 |

1 |
4.78 |
2-3 |
1.98 |

2 |
3.72 |
4+ |
4.76 |

3 |
4.22 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
7.04 |
Un 1.5 |
3.52 |

5 |
18.52 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.24 |

6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.81 |

Gg |
1.89 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.76 |

NoG |
2.12 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.63 |
3.79 |
2.81 |

2-3 goals |
2.69 |
3.47 |
2.94 |

4+ goals |
3.39 |
3.23 |
2.53 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.86 |
3.39 |
2.81 |

Un 1.5 |
2.63 |
3.79 |
2.81 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.44 |
6.88 |
2.25 |

Un 2.5 |
3.16 |
2.50 |
3.52 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.39 |
3.23 |
2.53 |

Un 3.5 |
2.67 |
3.57 |
2.89 |

Goal-Goal |
3.45 |
2.50 |
3.22 |

No Goal |
2.30 |
6.29 |
2.46 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.50 |
5.88 |
2.33 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.33 |
6.29 |
2.59 |

####
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###
Venezia vs Chievo at 20 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Venezia** and **Chievo** for **Serie B (Italy)**, which will take place on **20 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Venezia |
2.31 |
2.28 |
0.6 |

Draw |
2.97 |
3.58 |
-5.7 |

Chievo |
3.14 |
3.53 |
-3.5 |

Over 2.5 |
2.20 |
2.28 |
-1.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.65 |
1.78 |
-4.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Venezia (0.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Venezia** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Venezia scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Venezia** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Venezia** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Venezia’s performance** at home**.

Venezia,** at home**, had 9 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 29 points, 56.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Venezia scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Venezia was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Apr |
Salernitana |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

11 Apr |
Cosenza |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

05 Apr |
Spal |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Apr |
Reggina |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Monza |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Mar |
Lecce |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Ascoli |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Mar |
Brescia |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Chievo** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Chievo scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Chievo** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Chievo scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Chievo’s performance** as a guest**.

Chievo,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 8 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 35.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Chievo scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Chievo was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Apr |
Cittadella |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Apr |
Pisa |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Spal |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Mar |
Reggina |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

16 Mar |
Frosinone |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Lecce |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

08 Mar |
Vicenza |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Mar |
Pordenone |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

The form score for the **Venezia** is **-0.293** and for the **Chievo** is **-0.148.**

The home dynamic for the **Venezia** is **0.186** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Chievo** is **0.1.**

The offensive ability for the **Venezia** is **0.614** and for the **Chievo** is **0.191.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Venezia** is **-0.482** and for the **Chievo** is **-0.217.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Venezia** and the red line for guest team, **Chievo. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Venezia |
24% |
35% |
27% |
14% |

Chievo |
33% |
39% |
18% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Venezia** to score **1.25 ** goals and **Chievo** to score **1.01 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.26** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.24** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Venezia** to score **1.31 ** goals and **Chievo** to score **1.04 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.35** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.27** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.50 |
0-1 |
3.45 |

1 |
4.76 |
2-3 |
1.97 |

2 |
3.72 |
4+ |
4.98 |

3 |
4.18 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |

4 |
7.30 |
Un 1.5 |
3.45 |

5 |
19.61 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.27 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.79 |

Gg |
1.98 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.98 |

NoG |
2.03 |
Un 3.5 |
1.25 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.48 |
3.62 |
3.12 |

2-3 goals |
2.12 |
3.74 |
3.85 |

4+ goals |
2.48 |
3.24 |
3.47 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.21 |
3.58 |
3.73 |

Un 1.5 |
2.48 |
3.62 |
3.12 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.90 |
7.10 |
3.01 |

Un 2.5 |
2.71 |
2.59 |
4.08 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.48 |
3.24 |
3.47 |

Un 3.5 |
2.24 |
3.69 |
3.55 |

Goal-Goal |
2.74 |
2.56 |
4.11 |

No Goal |
1.95 |
6.16 |
3.08 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |
5.97 |
3.01 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.05 |
6.16 |
3.09 |

####
Go to Top

###
Reggiana vs Pordenone at 20 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Reggiana** and **Pordenone** for **Serie B (Italy)**, which will take place on **20 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Reggiana |
2.70 |
2.67 |
0.4 |

Draw |
2.90 |
3.32 |
-4.4 |

Pordenone |
2.80 |
3.10 |
-3.5 |

Over 2.5 |
2.24 |
2.45 |
-3.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.65 |
1.69 |
-1.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Reggiana (0.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Reggiana** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Reggiana scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Reggiana** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Reggiana scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Reggiana’s performance** at home**.

Reggiana,** at home**, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 39.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Reggiana scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Reggiana was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Apr |
Reggina |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Apr |
Empoli |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
Brescia |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
Frosinone |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Cosenza |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

16 Mar |
Monza |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Cremonese |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

07 Mar |
Lecce |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

**Pordenone** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Pordenone scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Pordenone** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Pordenone** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pordenone’s performance** as a guest**.

Pordenone,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 37.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Pordenone scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Pordenone was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Apr |
Frosinone |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Cremonese |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Virtus Entella |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

02 Apr |
Brescia |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Mar |
Empoli |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Pescara |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Monza |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Chievo |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

The form score for the **Reggiana** is **-0.74** and for the **Pordenone** is **-0.126.**

The home dynamic for the **Reggiana** is **-0.14** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Pordenone** is **0.289.**

The offensive ability for the **Reggiana** is **-0.166** and for the **Pordenone** is **0.33.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Reggiana** is **-0.554** and for the **Pordenone** is **0.191.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Reggiana** and the red line for guest team, **Pordenone. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Reggiana |
27% |
40% |
23% |
11% |

Pordenone |
28% |
44% |
18% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Reggiana** to score **1.14 ** goals and **Pordenone** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.25** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.03** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Reggiana** to score **1.18 ** goals and **Pordenone** to score **1.09 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.27** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.09** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.30 |

1 |
4.39 |
2-3 |
1.93 |

2 |
3.47 |
4+ |
5.62 |

3 |
4.37 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.44 |

4 |
7.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.30 |

5 |
23.81 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.46 |

6+ |
100.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.69 |

Gg |
1.90 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.62 |

NoG |
2.11 |
Un 3.5 |
1.22 |

Now we can create different game s