2021 04 20 Serie B (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Lecce vs Cittadella at 20 April 2021
Virtus Entella vs Vicenza at 20 April 2021
Venezia vs Chievo at 20 April 2021
Reggiana vs Pordenone at 20 April 2021
Cremonese vs Reggina at 20 April 2021
Cosenza vs Pescara at 20 April 2021
Brescia vs Spal at 20 April 2021
Ascoli vs Empoli at 20 April 2021
Salernitana vs Monza at 20 April 2021
Frosinone vs Pisa at 20 April 2021


Lecce vs Cittadella at 20 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Lecce and Cittadella for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 20 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Lecce

1.95

2.23

-6.4

Draw

3.28

3.77

-4.0

Cittadella

3.79

3.50

2.2

Over 2.5

1.89

2.11

-5.5

Under 2.5

1.88

1.90

-0.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Cittadella (2.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Lecce in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Lecce scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lecce in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Lecce scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lecce’s performance at home.
Lecce, at home, had 6 wins, 8 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 51.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Lecce scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 13 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lecce was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Vicenza

A

2

1

W

O

G

10 Apr

Spal

H

1

2

L

O

G

05 Apr

Pisa

A

1

0

W

U

N

02 Apr

Salernitana

H

2

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Frosinone

A

3

0

W

O

N

16 Mar

Venezia

A

3

2

W

O

G

13 Mar

Chievo

H

4

2

W

O

G

07 Mar

Reggiana

A

4

0

W

O

N


Cittadella in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Cittadella scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cittadella in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Cittadella scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cittadella’s performance as a guest.
Cittadella, as a guest, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 39.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Cittadella scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cittadella was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Chievo

H

1

0

W

U

N

10 Apr

Frosinone

A

1

1

D

U

G

05 Apr

Reggina

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Apr

Vicenza

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Spal

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 Mar

Salernitana

H

0

0

D

U

N

12 Mar

Pisa

H

2

0

W

U

N

07 Mar

Empoli

A

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Lecce is 0.702 and for the Cittadella is -0.111.
The home dynamic for the Lecce is -0.149 and the dynamic as a guest for the Cittadella is 0.033.
The offensive ability for the Lecce is 1 and for the Cittadella is -0.043.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Lecce is 0.347 and for the Cittadella is -0.217.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Lecce and the red line for guest team, Cittadella.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Lecce

24%

30%

31%

15%

Cittadella

34%

35%

20%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lecce to score 1.56 goals and Cittadella to score 0.98 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Lecce to win by 0.58 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lecce to score 1.37 goals and Cittadella to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.29 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.76

1

5.38

2-3

1.98

2

3.85

4+

4.41

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.80

Un 1.5

3.76

5

15.62

Ov 2.5

2.12

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.90

Gg

1.99

Ov 3.5

4.41

NoG

2.02

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.56

3.33

3.24

2-3 goals

1.90

4.76

3.80

4+ goals

2.84

2.91

3.29

Ov 1.5

2.12

3.98

3.62

Un 1.5

2.56

3.33

3.24

Ov 2.5

1.97

6.05

3.05

Un 2.5

2.49

2.83

4.08

Ov 3.5

2.84

2.91

3.29

Un 3.5

2.08

4.15

3.59

Goal-Goal

2.66

2.73

3.89

No Goal

1.90

6.20

3.20

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.10

5.08

3.07

NG+Un 2.5

1.99

6.20

3.26


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Virtus Entella vs Vicenza at 20 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Virtus Entella and Vicenza for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 20 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Virtus Entella

3.47

2.79

7.0

Draw

3.17

3.51

-3.1

Vicenza

2.33

2.81

-7.3

Over 2.5

2.17

2.24

-1.4

Under 2.5

1.73

1.81

-2.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Virtus Entella (7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Virtus Entella in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Virtus Entella in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Virtus Entella’s performance at home.
Virtus Entella, at home, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 25.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Virtus Entella was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Salernitana

H

0

3

L

O

N

05 Apr

Pordenone

A

0

3

L

O

N

02 Apr

Monza

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Mar

Empoli

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 Mar

Cremonese

H

0

2

L

U

N

12 Mar

Spal

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Ascoli

H

0

0

D

U

N

02 Mar

Lecce

A

0

0

D

U

N


Vicenza in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Vicenza scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Vicenza in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Vicenza scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Vicenza’s performance as a guest.
Vicenza, as a guest, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 39.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Vicenza scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Vicenza was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Lecce

H

1

2

L

O

G

11 Apr

Reggina

A

0

3

L

O

N

05 Apr

Ascoli

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Apr

Cittadella

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Pescara

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Mar

Cosenza

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Empoli

H

0

2

L

U

N

08 Mar

Chievo

A

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Virtus Entella is -0.953 and for the Vicenza is -0.244.
The home dynamic for the Virtus Entella is -0.566 and the dynamic as a guest for the Vicenza is 0.
The offensive ability for the Virtus Entella is -1 and for the Vicenza is 0.565.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Virtus Entella is -0.617 and for the Vicenza is -0.278.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Virtus Entella and the red line for guest team, Vicenza.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Virtus Entella

27%

39%

24%

11%

Vicenza

28%

38%

21%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Virtus Entella to score 1 goals and Vicenza to score 1.32 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and the guest team Vicenza to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Virtus Entella to score 1.19 goals and Vicenza to score 1.19 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.52

1

4.78

2-3

1.98

2

3.72

4+

4.76

3

4.22

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

7.04

Un 1.5

3.52

5

18.52

Ov 2.5

2.24

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.81

Gg

1.89

Ov 3.5

4.76

NoG

2.12

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.63

3.79

2.81

2-3 goals

2.69

3.47

2.94

4+ goals

3.39

3.23

2.53

Ov 1.5

2.86

3.39

2.81

Un 1.5

2.63

3.79

2.81

Ov 2.5

2.44

6.88

2.25

Un 2.5

3.16

2.50

3.52

Ov 3.5

3.39

3.23

2.53

Un 3.5

2.67

3.57

2.89

Goal-Goal

3.45

2.50

3.22

No Goal

2.30

6.29

2.46

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.50

5.88

2.33

NG+Un 2.5

2.33

6.29

2.59


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Venezia vs Chievo at 20 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Venezia and Chievo for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 20 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Venezia

2.31

2.28

0.6

Draw

2.97

3.58

-5.7

Chievo

3.14

3.53

-3.5

Over 2.5

2.20

2.28

-1.6

Under 2.5

1.65

1.78

-4.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Venezia (0.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Venezia in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Venezia in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Venezia’s performance at home.
Venezia, at home, had 9 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 29 points, 56.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Venezia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Salernitana

A

1

2

L

O

G

11 Apr

Cosenza

H

3

0

W

O

N

05 Apr

Spal

A

1

1

D

U

G

02 Apr

Reggina

H

0

2

L

U

N

20 Mar

Monza

A

4

1

W

O

G

16 Mar

Lecce

H

2

3

L

O

G

13 Mar

Ascoli

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Mar

Brescia

H

0

1

L

U

N


Chievo in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Chievo scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Chievo in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Chievo scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Chievo’s performance as a guest.
Chievo, as a guest, had 3 wins, 8 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 35.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Chievo scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Chievo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Cittadella

A

0

1

L

U

N

12 Apr

Pisa

H

2

0

W

U

N

02 Apr

Spal

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Mar

Reggina

A

1

1

D

U

G

16 Mar

Frosinone

H

0

0

D

U

N

13 Mar

Lecce

A

2

4

L

O

G

08 Mar

Vicenza

H

1

2

L

O

G

02 Mar

Pordenone

H

3

0

W

O

N


The form score for the Venezia is -0.293 and for the Chievo is -0.148.
The home dynamic for the Venezia is 0.186 and the dynamic as a guest for the Chievo is 0.1.
The offensive ability for the Venezia is 0.614 and for the Chievo is 0.191.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Venezia is -0.482 and for the Chievo is -0.217.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Venezia and the red line for guest team, Chievo.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Venezia

24%

35%

27%

14%

Chievo

33%

39%

18%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Venezia to score 1.25 goals and Chievo to score 1.01 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.26 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.24 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Venezia to score 1.31 goals and Chievo to score 1.04 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.27 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.45

1

4.76

2-3

1.97

2

3.72

4+

4.98

3

4.18

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

7.30

Un 1.5

3.45

5

19.61

Ov 2.5

2.27

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.79

Gg

1.98

Ov 3.5

4.98

NoG

2.03

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.48

3.62

3.12

2-3 goals

2.12

3.74

3.85

4+ goals

2.48

3.24

3.47

Ov 1.5

2.21

3.58

3.73

Un 1.5

2.48

3.62

3.12

Ov 2.5

1.90

7.10

3.01

Un 2.5

2.71

2.59

4.08

Ov 3.5

2.48

3.24

3.47

Un 3.5

2.24

3.69

3.55

Goal-Goal

2.74

2.56

4.11

No Goal

1.95

6.16

3.08

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.00

5.97

3.01

NG+Un 2.5

2.05

6.16

3.09


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Reggiana vs Pordenone at 20 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Reggiana and Pordenone for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 20 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Reggiana

2.70

2.67

0.4

Draw

2.90

3.32

-4.4

Pordenone

2.80

3.10

-3.5

Over 2.5

2.24

2.45

-3.8

Under 2.5

1.65

1.69

-1.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Reggiana (0.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Reggiana in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggiana scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Reggiana in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggiana scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Reggiana’s performance at home.
Reggiana, at home, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 39.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggiana scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Reggiana was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Reggina

A

1

2

L

O

G

09 Apr

Empoli

H

0

1

L

U

N

05 Apr

Brescia

H

2

2

D

O

G

02 Apr

Frosinone

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Mar

Cosenza

H

1

1

D

U

G

16 Mar

Monza

A

0

2

L

U

N

13 Mar

Cremonese

A

0

3

L

O

N

07 Mar

Lecce

H

0

4

L

O

N


Pordenone in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Pordenone scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pordenone in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Pordenone scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pordenone’s performance as a guest.
Pordenone, as a guest, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 37.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Pordenone scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pordenone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Frosinone

H

2

0

W

U

N

10 Apr

Cremonese

A

1

2

L

O

G

05 Apr

Virtus Entella

H

3

0

W

O

N

02 Apr

Brescia

A

1

4

L

O

G

16 Mar

Empoli

A

0

1

L

U

N

13 Mar

Pescara

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Monza

A

0

2

L

U

N

02 Mar

Chievo

A

0

3

L

O

N


The form score for the Reggiana is -0.74 and for the Pordenone is -0.126.
The home dynamic for the Reggiana is -0.14 and the dynamic as a guest for the Pordenone is 0.289.
The offensive ability for the Reggiana is -0.166 and for the Pordenone is 0.33.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Reggiana is -0.554 and for the Pordenone is 0.191.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Reggiana and the red line for guest team, Pordenone.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Reggiana

27%

40%

23%

11%

Pordenone

28%

44%

18%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Reggiana to score 1.14 goals and Pordenone to score 1.11 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.03 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Reggiana to score 1.18 goals and Pordenone to score 1.09 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.09 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.30

1

4.39

2-3

1.93

2

3.47

4+

5.62

3

4.37

Ov 1.5

1.44

4

7.94

Un 1.5

3.30

5

23.81

Ov 2.5

2.46

6+

100.00

Un 2.5

1.69

Gg

1.90

Ov 3.5

5.62

NoG

2.11

Un 3.5

1.22

Now we can create different game s