2021 04 20 Super League (Greece)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

AEK vs Panathinaikos at 21 April 2021
Aris vs PAOK at 21 April 2021


AEK vs Panathinaikos at 21 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between AEK and Panathinaikos for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 21 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

AEK

1.91

2.00

-2.4

Draw

3.38

3.61

-1.9

Panathinaikos

3.96

4.48

-2.9

Over 2.5

2.26

2.62

-6.1

Under 2.5

1.64

1.62

0.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (0.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

AEK in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, AEK scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, AEK in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, AEK scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at AEK’s performance at home.
AEK, at home, had 7 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, AEK scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of AEK was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

18 Apr

Asteras Tripolis

H

3

1

W

O

G

11 Apr

Aris

A

3

1

W

O

G

04 Apr

Olympiakos

H

1

5

L

O

G

21 Mar

PAOK

A

1

3

L

O

G

14 Mar

Volos NFC

A

0

1

L

U

N

08 Mar

Apollon

H

2

0

W

U

N

28 Feb

Panathinaikos

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Asteras Tripolis

H

2

2

D

O

G


Panathinaikos in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Panathinaikos in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Panathinaikos’s performance as a guest.
Panathinaikos, as a guest, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Panathinaikos was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

18 Apr

Aris

H

1

2

L

O

G

11 Apr

Olympiakos

A

1

3

L

O

G

04 Apr

PAOK

H

3

0

W

O

N

21 Mar

Asteras Tripolis

A

2

2

D

O

G

14 Mar

PAOK

H

2

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Giannina

A

0

1

L

U

N

28 Feb

AEK

H

1

1

D

U

G

22 Feb

Panetolikos

A

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the AEK is -0.042 and for the Panathinaikos is -0.2.
The home dynamic for the AEK is -0.068 and the dynamic as a guest for the Panathinaikos is 0.378.
The offensive ability for the AEK is 0.641 and for the Panathinaikos is 0.678.
Finally, the defensive ability for the AEK is -0.617 and for the Panathinaikos is -0.591.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, AEK and the red line for guest team, Panathinaikos.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

AEK

26%

37%

15%

22%

Panathinaikos

46%

33%

18%

3%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) AEK to score 1.4 goals and Panathinaikos to score 0.83 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.23 goals in the game and the home team AEK to win by 0.57 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) AEK to score 1.32 goals and Panathinaikos to score 0.77 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.09 goals in the game and the home team AEK to win by 0.55 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.20

0-1

2.64

1

3.89

2-3

2.16

2

4.17

4+

6.29

3

4.48

Ov 1.5

1.61

4

9.09

Un 1.5

2.64

5

23.26

Ov 2.5

2.62

6+

166.67

Un 2.5

1.62

Gg

2.51

Ov 3.5

6.29

NoG

1.66

Un 3.5

1.19

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.26

3.11

4.26

2-3 goals

2.10

3.80

3.83

4+ goals

1.43

4.68

11.36

Ov 1.5

1.88

3.99

4.61

Un 1.5

2.26

3.11

4.26

Ov 2.5

1.46

11.24

4.39

Un 2.5

2.60

2.54

4.52

Ov 3.5

1.43

4.68

11.36

Un 3.5

2.17

3.45

4.01

Goal-Goal

2.46

2.55

4.98

No Goal

1.79

4.94

4.19

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.70

8.12

3.45

NG+Un 2.5

2.09

4.94

3.63


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Aris vs PAOK at 21 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Aris and PAOK for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 21 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Aris

3.14

2.98

1.7

Draw

3.15

3.37

-2.1

PAOK

2.25

2.72

-7.7

Over 2.5

2.35

2.84

-7.3

Under 2.5

1.57

1.54

1.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Aris, Under 2.5 (1.7 %, 1.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Aris in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Aris scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Aris in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Aris scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Aris’s performance at home.
Aris, at home, had 9 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 29 points, 64.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Aris scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Aris was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

18 Apr

Panathinaikos

A

2

1

W

O

G

11 Apr

AEK

H

1

3

L

O

G

04 Apr

Asteras Tripolis

H

2

0

W

U

N

21 Mar

Olympiakos

A

0

1

L

U

N

14 Mar

OFI Crete

H

1

0

W

U

N

07 Mar

PAOK

A

2

2

D

O

G

28 Feb

Atromitos

H

3

0

W

O

N

21 Feb

Olympiakos

A

1

1

D

U

G


PAOK in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, PAOK scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, PAOK in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, PAOK scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at PAOK’s performance as a guest.
PAOK, as a guest, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 42.2% of the total available.
In these matches, PAOK scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of PAOK was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

18 Apr

Olympiakos

H

2

0

W

U

N

11 Apr

Asteras Tripolis

A

1

1

D

U

G

04 Apr

Panathinaikos

A

0

3

L

O

N

21 Mar

AEK

H

3

1

W

O

G

14 Mar

Panathinaikos

A

1

2

L

O

G

07 Mar

Aris

H

2

2

D

O

G

27 Feb

Asteras Tripolis

A

1

2

L

O

G

21 Feb

Lamia

H

4

0

W

O

N


The form score for the Aris is 0.126 and for the PAOK is 0.037.
The home dynamic for the Aris is 0.186 and the dynamic as a guest for the PAOK is 0.1.
The offensive ability for the Aris is 0.614 and for the PAOK is 0.591.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Aris is -0.098 and for the PAOK is -0.539.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Aris and the red line for guest team, PAOK.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Aris

39%

32%

19%

10%

PAOK

35%

33%

26%

6%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Aris to score 0.95 goals and PAOK to score 1.2 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.16 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.25 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Aris to score 1 goals and PAOK to score 1.04 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.04 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.04 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

7.41

0-1

2.66

1

4.15

2-3

2.09

2

3.68

4+

6.80

3

4.85

Ov 1.5

1.60

4

9.71

Un 1.5

2.66

5

26.32

Ov 2.5

2.83

6+

166.67

Un 2.5

1.54

Gg

2.50

Ov 3.5

6.80

NoG

1.66

Un 3.5

1.17

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.36

2.79

2.91

2-3 goals

2.90

4.47

2.32

4+ goals

2.49

2.67

4.45

Ov 1.5

2.79

3.86

2.62

Un 1.5

3.36

2.79

2.91

Ov 2.5

2.23

6.42

2.52

Un 2.5

3.64

2.68

2.84

Ov 3.5

2.49

2.67

4.45

Un 3.5

3.08

3.53

2.55

Goal-Goal

3.25

2.47

3.48

No Goal

2.82

4.45

2.38

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.38

5.33

2.55

NG+Un 2.5

3.04

4.45

2.37


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top



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