2021 04 23 Bundesliga (Germany)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Augsburg vs FC Koln at 23 April 2021
Freiburg vs Hoffenheim at 24 April 2021
Leverkusen vs Ein Frankfurt at 24 April 2021
Mainz vs Bayern Munich at 24 April 2021
Schalke 04 vs Hertha at 24 April 2021
Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen at 24 April 2021
Wolfsburg vs Dortmund at 24 April 2021
<a href=‘#M’gladbach’> M’gladbach vs Bielefeld at 25 April 2021
RB Leipzig vs Stuttgart at 25 April 2021


Augsburg vs FC Koln at 23 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Augsburg and FC Koln for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 23 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Augsburg

2.92

2.32

8.9

Draw

3.19

3.80

-5.0

FC Koln

2.55

3.27

-8.6

Over 2.5

2.19

1.86

8.1

Under 2.5

1.71

2.16

-12.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Augsburg, Over 2.5 (8.9 %, 8.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Augsburg in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Augsburg scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Augsburg in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Augsburg didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Augsburg’s performance at home.
Augsburg, at home, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 42.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Augsburg scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Augsburg was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Apr

Ein Frankfurt

A

0

2

L

U

N

17 Apr

Bielefeld

H

0

0

D

U

N

11 Apr

Schalke 04

A

0

1

L

U

N

03 Apr

Hoffenheim

H

2

1

W

O

G

21 Mar

Freiburg

A

0

2

L

U

N

12 Mar

M’gladbach

H

3

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Hertha

A

1

2

L

O

G

28 Feb

Mainz

A

1

0

W

U

N


FC Koln in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Koln scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, FC Koln in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Koln scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at FC Koln’s performance as a guest.
FC Koln, as a guest, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Koln scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of FC Koln was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Apr

RB Leipzig

H

2

1

W

O

G

17 Apr

Leverkusen

A

0

3

L

O

N

11 Apr

Mainz

H

2

3

L

O

G

03 Apr

Wolfsburg

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Dortmund

H

2

2

D

O

G

13 Mar

Union Berlin

A

1

2

L

O

G

07 Mar

Werder Bremen

H

1

1

D

U

G

27 Feb

Bayern Munich

A

1

5

L

O

G


The form score for the Augsburg is -0.222 and for the FC Koln is -0.421.
The home dynamic for the Augsburg is -0.465 and the dynamic as a guest for the FC Koln is -0.251.
The offensive ability for the Augsburg is -0.631 and for the FC Koln is 0.191.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Augsburg is -0.571 and for the FC Koln is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Augsburg and the red line for guest team, FC Koln.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Augsburg

21%

32%

26%

20%

FC Koln

27%

37%

21%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Augsburg to score 1.1 goals and FC Koln to score 1.21 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.3 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.11 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Augsburg to score 1.46 goals and FC Koln to score 1.22 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.68 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.24 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

17.24

0-1

4.42

1

5.95

2-3

2.04

2

4.22

4+

3.50

3

3.97

Ov 1.5

1.29

4

5.65

Un 1.5

4.42

5

12.50

Ov 2.5

1.86

6+

34.48

Un 2.5

2.16

Gg

1.74

Ov 3.5

3.50

NoG

2.34

Un 3.5

1.40

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.54

3.90

2.86

2-3 goals

2.16

4.04

3.44

4+ goals

2.44

3.40

3.36

Ov 1.5

2.26

3.78

3.41

Un 1.5

2.54

3.90

2.86

Ov 2.5

1.99

6.40

2.94

Un 2.5

2.88

2.59

3.76

Ov 3.5

2.44

3.40

3.36

Un 3.5

2.27

3.99

3.24

Goal-Goal

2.66

2.80

3.75

No Goal

1.98

7.36

2.79

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.10

5.39

2.96

NG+Un 2.5

2.12

7.36

2.78


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Freiburg vs Hoffenheim at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Freiburg and Hoffenheim for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 24 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Freiburg

2.66

2.02

11.9

Draw

3.54

4.02

-3.4

Hoffenheim

2.57

3.91

-13.3

Over 2.5

1.68

1.82

-4.6

Under 2.5

2.22

2.22

0.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Freiburg (11.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Freiburg in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Freiburg scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Freiburg in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Freiburg scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Freiburg’s performance at home.
Freiburg, at home, had 7 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Freiburg scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Freiburg was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Schalke 04

H

4

0

W

O

N

09 Apr

Bielefeld

A

0

1

L

U

N

03 Apr

M’gladbach

A

1

2

L

O

G

21 Mar

Augsburg

H

2

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Mainz

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Mar

RB Leipzig

H

0

3

L

O

N

28 Feb

Leverkusen

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Feb

Union Berlin

H

0

1

L

U

N


Hoffenheim in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hoffenheim in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hoffenheim’s performance as a guest.
Hoffenheim, as a guest, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 31.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Hoffenheim was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Apr

M’gladbach

H

3

2

W

O

G

16 Apr

RB Leipzig

A

0

0

D

U

N

12 Apr

Leverkusen

H

0

0

D

U

N

03 Apr

Augsburg

A

1

2

L

O

G

21 Mar

Mainz

H

1

2

L

O

G

14 Mar

Stuttgart

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Mar

Wolfsburg

H

2

1

W

O

G

28 Feb

Union Berlin

A

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Freiburg is -0.281 and for the Hoffenheim is -0.19.
The home dynamic for the Freiburg is 0.212 and the dynamic as a guest for the Hoffenheim is -0.302.
The offensive ability for the Freiburg is -0.09 and for the Hoffenheim is -0.157.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Freiburg is -0.167 and for the Hoffenheim is -0.167.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Freiburg and the red line for guest team, Hoffenheim.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Freiburg

19%

31%

22%

28%

Hoffenheim

34%

34%

20%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Freiburg to score 1.4 goals and Hoffenheim to score 1.44 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.84 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.04 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Freiburg to score 1.58 goals and Hoffenheim to score 1.12 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.7 goals in the game and the home team Freiburg to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.62

0-1

4.29

1

5.92

2-3

2.12

2

4.59

4+

3.39

3

3.94

Ov 1.5

1.30

4

5.68

Un 1.5

4.29

5

11.90

Ov 2.5

1.82

6+

28.57

Un 2.5

2.22

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

3.39

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.42

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.22

3.64

3.64

2-3 goals

1.96

4.45

3.78

4+ goals

1.98

3.73

4.40

Ov 1.5

1.97

4.15

3.99

Un 1.5

2.22

3.64

3.64

Ov 2.5

1.74

6.95

3.56

Un 2.5

2.52

2.65

4.42

Ov 3.5

1.98

3.73

4.40

Un 3.5

2.04

4.15

3.73

Goal-Goal

2.41

2.91

4.14

No Goal

1.70

7.22

3.67

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.94

5.47

3.32

NG+Un 2.5

1.93

7.22

3.38


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Leverkusen vs Ein Frankfurt at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Leverkusen and Ein Frankfurt for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 24 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Leverkusen

2.32

2.23

1.7

Draw

3.76

3.97

-1.4

Ein Frankfurt

2.89

3.33

-4.6

Over 2.5

1.48

1.82

-12.6

Under 2.5

2.62

2.22

6.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Leverkusen, Under 2.5 (1.7 %, 6.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Leverkusen in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leverkusen in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Leverkusen’s performance at home.
Leverkusen, at home, had 7 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leverkusen was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Apr

Bayern Munich

A

0

2

L

U

N

17 Apr

FC Koln

H

3

0

W

O

N

12 Apr

Hoffenheim

A

0

0

D

U

N

03 Apr

Schalke 04

H

2

1

W

O

G

21 Mar

Hertha

A

0

3

L

O

N

14 Mar

Bielefeld

H

1

2

L

O

G

06 Mar

M’gladbach

A

1

0

W

U

N

28 Feb

Freiburg

H

1

2

L

O

G


Ein Frankfurt in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Ein Frankfurt scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ein Frankfurt in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Ein Frankfurt scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ein Frankfurt’s performance as a guest.
Ein Frankfurt, as a guest, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 51.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Ein Frankfurt scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ein Frankfurt was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Apr

Augsburg

H

2

0

W

U

N

17 Apr

M’gladbach

A

0

4

L

O

N

10 Apr

Wolfsburg

H

4

3

W

O

G

03 Apr

Dortmund

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Mar

Union Berlin

H

5

2

W

O

G

14 Mar

RB Leipzig

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Mar

Stuttgart

H

1

1

D

U

G

26 Feb

Werder Bremen

A

1

2

L

O

G


The form score for the Leverkusen is -0.133 and for the Ein Frankfurt is 0.603.
The home dynamic for the Leverkusen is 0.061 and the dynamic as a guest for the Ein Frankfurt is 0.217.
The offensive ability for the Leverkusen is -0.202 and for the Ein Frankfurt is 0.565.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Leverkusen is -0.167 and for the Ein Frankfurt is -0.545.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Leverkusen and the red line for guest team, Ein Frankfurt.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Leverkusen

23%

33%

16%

28%

Ein Frankfurt

33%

30%

22%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Leverkusen to score 1.73 goals and Ein Frankfurt to score 1.47 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.19 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Leverkusen to score 1.5 goals and Ein Frankfurt to score 1.2 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.7 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.51

0-1

4.00

1

5.68

2-3

2.24

2

5.00

4+

3.31

3

4.05

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

5.85

Un 1.5

4.00

5

11.63

Ov 2.5

1.82

6+

22.22

Un 2.5

2.22

Gg

1.92

Ov 3.5

3.31

NoG

2.09

Un 3.5

1.43

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.31

3.38

3.68

2-3 goals

2.30

4.52

2.90

4+ goals

2.07

3.82

3.92

Ov 1.5

2.20

4.21

3.24

Un 1.5

2.31

3.38

3.68

Ov 2.5

1.91

6.95

3.00

Un 2.5

2.80

2.60

3.88

Ov 3.5

2.07

3.82

3.92

Un 3.5

2.31

4.03

3.14

Goal-Goal

2.68

2.92

3.51

No Goal

1.89

6.47

3.17

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.17

5.33

2.84

NG+Un 2.5

2.18

6.47

3.03


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Mainz vs Bayern Munich at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Mainz and Bayern Munich for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 24 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Mainz

8.66

3.91

14.0

Draw

5.85

4.17

6.9

Bayern Munich

1.32

1.98

-25.3

Over 2.5

1.34

1.80

-19.1

Under 2.5

3.25

2.26

13.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Mainz, Draw, Under 2.5 (14 %, 6.9 %, 13.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Mainz in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Mainz scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Mainz in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Mainz scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Mainz’s performance at home.
Mainz, at home, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 28.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Mainz scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Mainz was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Apr

Werder Bremen

A

1

0

W

U

N

11 Apr

FC Koln

A

3

2

W

O

G

03 Apr

Bielefeld

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Mar

Hoffenheim

A

2

1

W

O

G

13 Mar

Freiburg

H

1

0

W

U

N

05 Mar

Schalke 04

A

0

0

D

U

N

28 Feb

Augsburg

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Feb

M’gladbach

A

2

1

W

O

G


Bayern Munich in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Bayern Munich scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bayern Munich in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Bayern Munich scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bayern Munich’s performance as a guest.
Bayern Munich, as a guest, had 11 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 34 points, 75.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Bayern Munich scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bayern Munich was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Apr

Leverkusen

H

2

0

W

U

N

17 Apr

Wolfsburg

A

3

2

W

O

G

10 Apr

Union Berlin

H

1

1

D

U

G

03 Apr

RB Leipzig

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Stuttgart

H

4

0

W

O

N

13 Mar

Werder Bremen

A

3

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Dortmund

H

4

2

W

O

G

27 Feb

FC Koln

H

5

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Mainz is 0.689 and for the Bayern Munich is 0.96.
The home dynamic for the Mainz is -0.707 and the dynamic as a guest for the Bayern Munich is 0.6.
The offensive ability for the Mainz is 0.682 and for the Bayern Munich is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Mainz is 0.116 and for the Bayern Munich is 0.176.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Mainz and the red line for guest team, Bayern Munich.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Mainz

33%

39%

13%

14%

Bayern Munich

24%

22%

24%

30%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Mainz to score 0.69 goals and Bayern Munich to score 2.9 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.59 goals in the game and the guest team Bayern Munich to win by 2.21 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Mainz to score 1.09 goals and Bayern Munich to score 1.6 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.69 goals in the game and the guest team Bayern Munich to win by 0.51 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

4.07

1

6.02

2-3

2.20

2

5.08

4+

3.34

3

3.88

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

5.52

Un 1.5

4.07

5

13.33

Ov 2.5

1.80

6+

23.26

Un 2.5

2.26

Gg

1.97

Ov 3.5

3.34

NoG