# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Augsburg vs FC Koln at 23 April 2021**** Freiburg vs Hoffenheim at 24 April 2021**** Leverkusen vs Ein Frankfurt at 24 April 2021**** Mainz vs Bayern Munich at 24 April 2021**** Schalke 04 vs Hertha at 24 April 2021**** Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen at 24 April 2021**** Wolfsburg vs Dortmund at 24 April 2021**

<a href=‘#M’gladbach’>** M’gladbach vs Bielefeld at 25 April 2021**** RB Leipzig vs Stuttgart at 25 April 2021**

###
Augsburg vs FC Koln at 23 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Augsburg** and **FC Koln** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **23 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Augsburg |
2.92 |
2.32 |
8.9 |

Draw |
3.19 |
3.80 |
-5.0 |

FC Koln |
2.55 |
3.27 |
-8.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.19 |
1.86 |
8.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.71 |
2.16 |
-12.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Augsburg, Over 2.5 (8.9 %, 8.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Augsburg** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Augsburg scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Augsburg** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Augsburg** didn’t score to any of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Augsburg’s performance** at home**.

Augsburg,** at home**, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 42.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Augsburg scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Augsburg was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Apr |
Ein Frankfurt |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Bielefeld |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

11 Apr |
Schalke 04 |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Apr |
Hoffenheim |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Mar |
Freiburg |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Mar |
M’gladbach |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Hertha |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Feb |
Mainz |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**FC Koln** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Koln scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **FC Koln** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Koln scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at FC Koln’s performance** as a guest**.

FC Koln,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Koln scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of FC Koln was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Apr |
RB Leipzig |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Apr |
Leverkusen |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

11 Apr |
Mainz |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Apr |
Wolfsburg |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Dortmund |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Union Berlin |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Mar |
Werder Bremen |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Feb |
Bayern Munich |
A |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Augsburg** is **-0.222** and for the **FC Koln** is **-0.421.**

The home dynamic for the **Augsburg** is **-0.465** and the dynamic as a guest for the **FC Koln** is **-0.251.**

The offensive ability for the **Augsburg** is **-0.631** and for the **FC Koln** is **0.191.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Augsburg** is **-0.571** and for the **FC Koln** is **-1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Augsburg** and the red line for guest team, **FC Koln. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Augsburg |
21% |
32% |
26% |
20% |

FC Koln |
27% |
37% |
21% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Augsburg** to score **1.1 ** goals and **FC Koln** to score **1.21 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.3** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.11** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Augsburg** to score **1.46 ** goals and **FC Koln** to score **1.22 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.68** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.24** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
17.24 |
0-1 |
4.42 |

1 |
5.95 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.22 |
4+ |
3.50 |

3 |
3.97 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.29 |

4 |
5.65 |
Un 1.5 |
4.42 |

5 |
12.50 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.86 |

6+ |
34.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.16 |

Gg |
1.74 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.50 |

NoG |
2.34 |
Un 3.5 |
1.40 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.54 |
3.90 |
2.86 |

2-3 goals |
2.16 |
4.04 |
3.44 |

4+ goals |
2.44 |
3.40 |
3.36 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.26 |
3.78 |
3.41 |

Un 1.5 |
2.54 |
3.90 |
2.86 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |
6.40 |
2.94 |

Un 2.5 |
2.88 |
2.59 |
3.76 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.44 |
3.40 |
3.36 |

Un 3.5 |
2.27 |
3.99 |
3.24 |

Goal-Goal |
2.66 |
2.80 |
3.75 |

No Goal |
1.98 |
7.36 |
2.79 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.10 |
5.39 |
2.96 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.12 |
7.36 |
2.78 |

####
Go to Top

###
Freiburg vs Hoffenheim at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Freiburg** and **Hoffenheim** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **24 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Freiburg |
2.66 |
2.02 |
11.9 |

Draw |
3.54 |
4.02 |
-3.4 |

Hoffenheim |
2.57 |
3.91 |
-13.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.68 |
1.82 |
-4.6 |

Under 2.5 |
2.22 |
2.22 |
0.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Freiburg (11.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Freiburg** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Freiburg scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Freiburg** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Freiburg scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Freiburg’s performance** at home**.

Freiburg,** at home**, had 7 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Freiburg scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Freiburg was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Apr |
Schalke 04 |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

09 Apr |
Bielefeld |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Apr |
M’gladbach |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Mar |
Augsburg |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Mainz |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
RB Leipzig |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

28 Feb |
Leverkusen |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Union Berlin |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Hoffenheim** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Hoffenheim** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hoffenheim’s performance** as a guest**.

Hoffenheim,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 31.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Hoffenheim was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Apr |
M’gladbach |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Apr |
RB Leipzig |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 Apr |
Leverkusen |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

03 Apr |
Augsburg |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Mar |
Mainz |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Mar |
Stuttgart |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Wolfsburg |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Feb |
Union Berlin |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **Freiburg** is **-0.281** and for the **Hoffenheim** is **-0.19.**

The home dynamic for the **Freiburg** is **0.212** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Hoffenheim** is **-0.302.**

The offensive ability for the **Freiburg** is **-0.09** and for the **Hoffenheim** is **-0.157.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Freiburg** is **-0.167** and for the **Hoffenheim** is **-0.167.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Freiburg** and the red line for guest team, **Hoffenheim. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Freiburg |
19% |
31% |
22% |
28% |

Hoffenheim |
34% |
34% |
20% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Freiburg** to score **1.4 ** goals and **Hoffenheim** to score **1.44 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.84** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.04** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Freiburg** to score **1.58 ** goals and **Hoffenheim** to score **1.12 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.7** goals in the game and the home team **Freiburg ** to win by **0.46** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
15.62 |
0-1 |
4.29 |

1 |
5.92 |
2-3 |
2.12 |

2 |
4.59 |
4+ |
3.39 |

3 |
3.94 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.30 |

4 |
5.68 |
Un 1.5 |
4.29 |

5 |
11.90 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.82 |

6+ |
28.57 |
Un 2.5 |
2.22 |

Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.39 |

NoG |
2.16 |
Un 3.5 |
1.42 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.22 |
3.64 |
3.64 |

2-3 goals |
1.96 |
4.45 |
3.78 |

4+ goals |
1.98 |
3.73 |
4.40 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.97 |
4.15 |
3.99 |

Un 1.5 |
2.22 |
3.64 |
3.64 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.74 |
6.95 |
3.56 |

Un 2.5 |
2.52 |
2.65 |
4.42 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.98 |
3.73 |
4.40 |

Un 3.5 |
2.04 |
4.15 |
3.73 |

Goal-Goal |
2.41 |
2.91 |
4.14 |

No Goal |
1.70 |
7.22 |
3.67 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.94 |
5.47 |
3.32 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.93 |
7.22 |
3.38 |

####
Go to Top

###
Leverkusen vs Ein Frankfurt at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Leverkusen** and **Ein Frankfurt** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **24 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Leverkusen |
2.32 |
2.23 |
1.7 |

Draw |
3.76 |
3.97 |
-1.4 |

Ein Frankfurt |
2.89 |
3.33 |
-4.6 |

Over 2.5 |
1.48 |
1.82 |
-12.6 |

Under 2.5 |
2.62 |
2.22 |
6.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Leverkusen, Under 2.5 (1.7 %, 6.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Leverkusen** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Leverkusen** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Leverkusen’s performance** at home**.

Leverkusen,** at home**, had 7 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Leverkusen was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Apr |
Bayern Munich |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
FC Koln |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

12 Apr |
Hoffenheim |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

03 Apr |
Schalke 04 |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Mar |
Hertha |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

14 Mar |
Bielefeld |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
M’gladbach |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Feb |
Freiburg |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Ein Frankfurt** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Ein Frankfurt scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Ein Frankfurt** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Ein Frankfurt scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ein Frankfurt’s performance** as a guest**.

Ein Frankfurt,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 51.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Ein Frankfurt scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Ein Frankfurt was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Apr |
Augsburg |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
M’gladbach |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

10 Apr |
Wolfsburg |
H |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Apr |
Dortmund |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Union Berlin |
H |
5 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

14 Mar |
RB Leipzig |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Mar |
Stuttgart |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Feb |
Werder Bremen |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Leverkusen** is **-0.133** and for the **Ein Frankfurt** is **0.603.**

The home dynamic for the **Leverkusen** is **0.061** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Ein Frankfurt** is **0.217.**

The offensive ability for the **Leverkusen** is **-0.202** and for the **Ein Frankfurt** is **0.565.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Leverkusen** is **-0.167** and for the **Ein Frankfurt** is **-0.545.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Leverkusen** and the red line for guest team, **Ein Frankfurt. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Leverkusen |
23% |
33% |
16% |
28% |

Ein Frankfurt |
33% |
30% |
22% |
16% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Leverkusen** to score **1.73 ** goals and **Ein Frankfurt** to score **1.47 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.19** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.26** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Leverkusen** to score **1.5 ** goals and **Ein Frankfurt** to score **1.2 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.7** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.3** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
4.00 |

1 |
5.68 |
2-3 |
2.24 |

2 |
5.00 |
4+ |
3.31 |

3 |
4.05 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
5.85 |
Un 1.5 |
4.00 |

5 |
11.63 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.82 |

6+ |
22.22 |
Un 2.5 |
2.22 |

Gg |
1.92 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.31 |

NoG |
2.09 |
Un 3.5 |
1.43 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.31 |
3.38 |
3.68 |

2-3 goals |
2.30 |
4.52 |
2.90 |

4+ goals |
2.07 |
3.82 |
3.92 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.20 |
4.21 |
3.24 |

Un 1.5 |
2.31 |
3.38 |
3.68 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.91 |
6.95 |
3.00 |

Un 2.5 |
2.80 |
2.60 |
3.88 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.07 |
3.82 |
3.92 |

Un 3.5 |
2.31 |
4.03 |
3.14 |

Goal-Goal |
2.68 |
2.92 |
3.51 |

No Goal |
1.89 |
6.47 |
3.17 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.17 |
5.33 |
2.84 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.18 |
6.47 |
3.03 |

####
Go to Top

###
Mainz vs Bayern Munich at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Mainz** and **Bayern Munich** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **24 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Mainz |
8.66 |
3.91 |
14.0 |

Draw |
5.85 |
4.17 |
6.9 |

Bayern Munich |
1.32 |
1.98 |
-25.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.34 |
1.80 |
-19.1 |

Under 2.5 |
3.25 |
2.26 |
13.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Mainz, Draw, Under 2.5 (14 %, 6.9 %, 13.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Mainz** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Mainz scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Mainz** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Mainz** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Mainz’s performance** at home**.

Mainz,** at home**, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 28.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Mainz scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Mainz was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Apr |
Werder Bremen |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

11 Apr |
FC Koln |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Apr |
Bielefeld |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Mar |
Hoffenheim |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Freiburg |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Mar |
Schalke 04 |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

28 Feb |
Augsburg |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
M’gladbach |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Bayern Munich** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Bayern Munich** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bayern Munich** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Bayern Munich** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bayern Munich’s performance** as a guest**.

Bayern Munich,** as a guest**, had 11 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 34 points, 75.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Bayern Munich** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bayern Munich was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Apr |
Leverkusen |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Wolfsburg |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Union Berlin |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Apr |
RB Leipzig |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Stuttgart |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

13 Mar |
Werder Bremen |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Dortmund |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
FC Koln |
H |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Mainz** is **0.689** and for the **Bayern Munich** is **0.96.**

The home dynamic for the **Mainz** is **-0.707** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Bayern Munich** is **0.6.**

The offensive ability for the **Mainz** is **0.682** and for the **Bayern Munich** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Mainz** is **0.116** and for the **Bayern Munich** is **0.176.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Mainz** and the red line for guest team, **Bayern Munich. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Mainz |
33% |
39% |
13% |
14% |

Bayern Munich |
24% |
22% |
24% |
30% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Mainz** to score **0.69 ** goals and **Bayern Munich** to score **2.9 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.59** goals in the game and the guest team **Bayern Munich ** to win by **2.21** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Mainz** to score **1.09 ** goals and **Bayern Munich** to score **1.6 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.69** goals in the game and the guest team **Bayern Munich ** to win by **0.51** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.50 |
0-1 |
4.07 |

1 |
6.02 |
2-3 |
2.20 |

2 |
5.08 |
4+ |
3.34 |

3 |
3.88 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
5.52 |
Un 1.5 |
4.07 |

5 |
13.33 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.80 |

6+ |
23.26 |
Un 2.5 |
2.26 |

Gg |
1.97 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.34 |

NoG |