2021 04 23 Championship (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Derby vs Birmingham at 24 April 2021
Blackburn vs Huddersfield at 24 April 2021
Watford vs Millwall at 24 April 2021
QPR vs Norwich at 24 April 2021
<a href=‘#Nott’m Forest’> Nott’m Forest vs Stoke at 24 April 2021
Middlesbrough vs Sheffield Weds at 24 April 2021
Cardiff vs Wycombe at 24 April 2021
Bournemouth vs Brentford at 24 April 2021
Barnsley vs Rotherham at 24 April 2021
Coventry vs Preston at 24 April 2021
Reading vs Swansea at 25 April 2021
Bristol City vs Luton at 25 April 2021


Derby vs Birmingham at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Derby and Birmingham for Championship (England), which will take place on 24 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Derby

2.44

2.17

5.1

Draw

3.05

3.52

-4.4

Birmingham

3.14

3.92

-6.3

Over 2.5

2.52

2.32

3.4

Under 2.5

1.53

1.76

-8.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Derby, Over 2.5 (5.1 %, 3.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Derby in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Derby scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Derby in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Derby scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Derby’s performance at home.
Derby, at home, had 6 wins, 6 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 38.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Derby scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 18 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 15 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Derby was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Apr

Preston

A

0

3

L

O

N

16 Apr

Blackburn

A

1

2

L

O

G

10 Apr

Norwich

H

0

1

L

U

N

05 Apr

Reading

A

1

3

L

O

G

02 Apr

Luton

H

2

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Stoke

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 Mar

Brentford

H

2

2

D

O

G

13 Mar

Millwall

H

0

1

L

U

N


Birmingham in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Birmingham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Birmingham in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Birmingham scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Birmingham’s performance as a guest.
Birmingham, as a guest, had 6 wins, 9 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 42.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Birmingham scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 16 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 14 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Birmingham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Apr

Nott’m Forest

H

1

1

D

U

G

18 Apr

Rotherham

A

1

0

W

U

N

10 Apr

Stoke

H

2

0

W

U

N

06 Apr

Brentford

A

0

0

D

U

N

02 Apr

Swansea

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Watford

A

0

3

L

O

N

17 Mar

Reading

H

2

1

W

O

G

13 Mar

Bristol City

H

0

3

L

O

N


The form score for the Derby is -0.704 and for the Birmingham is 0.468.
The home dynamic for the Derby is -0.515 and the dynamic as a guest for the Birmingham is 0.183.
The offensive ability for the Derby is -0.176 and for the Birmingham is 0.304.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Derby is -0.657 and for the Birmingham is 0.545.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Derby and the red line for guest team, Birmingham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Derby

24%

38%

16%

22%

Birmingham

38%

39%

12%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Derby to score 1.13 goals and Birmingham to score 0.95 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.08 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Derby to score 1.35 goals and Birmingham to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and the home team Derby to win by 0.39 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.87

0-1

3.02

1

4.18

2-3

2.20

2

4.20

4+

4.69

3

4.61

Ov 1.5

1.50

4

6.85

Un 1.5

3.02

5

23.26

Ov 2.5

2.33

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

1.76

Gg

2.13

Ov 3.5

4.69

NoG

1.89

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.30

3.60

3.48

2-3 goals

2.22

3.03

4.55

4+ goals

1.90

5.07

3.61

Ov 1.5

2.11

3.48

4.20

Un 1.5

2.30

3.60

3.48

Ov 2.5

1.67

10.24

3.28

Un 2.5

2.79

2.35

4.63

Ov 3.5

1.90

5.07

3.61

Un 3.5

2.25

3.25

4.03

Goal-Goal

2.70

2.45

4.52

No Goal

1.84

5.75

3.53

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.84

7.62

3.08

NG+Un 2.5

2.05

5.75

3.41


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Blackburn vs Huddersfield at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Blackburn and Huddersfield for Championship (England), which will take place on 24 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Blackburn

1.97

2.07

-2.5

Draw

3.43

3.79

-2.8

Huddersfield

3.88

3.97

-0.6

Over 2.5

2.03

2.07

-1.0

Under 2.5

1.80

1.94

-4.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Blackburn in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackburn scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Blackburn in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackburn scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Blackburn’s performance at home.
Blackburn, at home, had 7 wins, 7 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackburn scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 13 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Blackburn was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Apr

Sheffield Weds

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 Apr

Derby

H

2

1

W

O

G

10 Apr

Cardiff

A

2

2

D

O

G

05 Apr

Bournemouth

H

0

2

L

U

N

02 Apr

Wycombe

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Norwich

A

1

1

D

U

G

17 Mar

Bristol City

H

0

0

D

U

N

12 Mar

Brentford

H

0

1

L

U

N


Huddersfield in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Huddersfield in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Huddersfield’s performance as a guest.
Huddersfield, as a guest, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 12 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 27.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Huddersfield was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Apr

Barnsley

H

0

1

L

U

N

17 Apr

Nott’m Forest

A

2

0

W

U

N

13 Apr

Bournemouth

H

1

2

L

O

G

10 Apr

Rotherham

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Apr

Norwich

A

0

7

L

O

N

03 Apr

Brentford

H

1

1

D

U

G

17 Mar

Sheffield Weds

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

QPR

A

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Blackburn is -0.319 and for the Huddersfield is -0.286.
The home dynamic for the Blackburn is 0.091 and the dynamic as a guest for the Huddersfield is -0.455.
The offensive ability for the Blackburn is -0.176 and for the Huddersfield is -0.191.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Blackburn is -1 and for the Huddersfield is -0.202.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Blackburn and the red line for guest team, Huddersfield.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Blackburn

20%

33%

26%

20%

Huddersfield

34%

39%

18%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Blackburn to score 1.5 goals and Huddersfield to score 0.92 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Blackburn to win by 0.58 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Blackburn to score 1.46 goals and Huddersfield to score 1.03 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the home team Blackburn to win by 0.43 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.49

0-1

3.83

1

5.21

2-3

1.99

2

3.94

4+

4.24

3

4.02

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.41

Un 1.5

3.83

5

16.39

Ov 2.5

2.06

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.94

Gg

1.90

Ov 3.5

4.24

NoG

2.11

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.33

3.78

3.26

2-3 goals

1.94

3.93

4.34

4+ goals

2.09

3.52

4.21

Ov 1.5

1.99

3.79

4.30

Un 1.5

2.33

3.78

3.26

Ov 2.5

1.71

7.24

3.59

Un 2.5

2.56

2.61

4.40

Ov 3.5

2.09

3.52

4.21

Un 3.5

2.06

3.88

3.90

Goal-Goal

2.44

2.70

4.54

No Goal

1.76

6.86

3.48

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.85

5.96

3.44

NG+Un 2.5

1.93

6.86

3.31


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Watford vs Millwall at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Watford and Millwall for Championship (England), which will take place on 24 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Watford

1.54

1.79

-9.1

Draw

3.94

4.03

-0.6

Millwall

6.52

5.15

4.1

Over 2.5

2.14

2.07

1.6

Under 2.5

1.72

1.93

-6.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Millwall, Over 2.5 (4.1 %, 1.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Watford in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Watford in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Watford’s performance at home.
Watford, at home, had 17 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 53 points, 84.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in 20 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Watford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Apr

Norwich

A

1

0

W

U

N

17 Apr

Luton

A

0

1

L

U

N

09 Apr

Reading

H

2

0

W

U

N

05 Apr

Middlesbrough

A

1

1

D

U

G

02 Apr

Sheffield Weds

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Birmingham

H

3

0

W

O

N

16 Mar

Rotherham

A

4

1

W

O

G

13 Mar

Cardiff

A

2

1

W

O

G


Millwall in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Millwall scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Millwall in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Millwall scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Millwall’s performance as a guest.
Millwall, as a guest, had 8 wins, 7 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 49.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Millwall scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Millwall was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Apr

Bournemouth

H

1

4

L

O

G

17 Apr

Brentford

A

0

0

D

U

N

10 Apr

Swansea

H

0

3

L

O

N

05 Apr

Stoke

A

2

1

W

O

G

02 Apr

Rotherham

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Middlesbrough

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Mar

QPR

A

2

3

L

O

G

13 Mar

Derby

A

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Watford is 0.467 and for the Millwall is 0.151.
The home dynamic for the Watford is 0.535 and the dynamic as a guest for the Millwall is 0.055.
The offensive ability for the Watford is 0.571 and for the Millwall is 0.157.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Watford is 0.519 and for the Millwall is 0.09.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Watford and the red line for guest team, Millwall.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Watford

18%

31%

28%

23%

Millwall

39%

41%

12%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Watford to score 1.71 goals and Millwall to score 0.62 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and the home team Watford to win by 1.09 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Watford to score 1.57 goals and Millwall to score 0.9 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the home team Watford to win by 0.67 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.71

0-1

3.85

1

5.21

2-3

1.95

2

3.89

4+

4.42

3

3.89

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.45

Un 1.5

3.85

5

19.23

Ov 2.5

2.07

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.93

Gg

1.98

Ov 3.5

4.42

NoG

2.02

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.17

3.82

3.61

2-3 goals

1.64

4.05

6.95

4+ goals

1.81

4.26

4.71

Ov 1.5

1.69

4.11

6.07

Un 1.5

2.17

3.82

3.61

Ov 2.5

1.46

9.11

4.83

Un 2.5

2.27

2.65

5.50

Ov 3.5

1.81

4.26

4.71

Un 3.5

1.79

3.97

5.30

Goal-Goal

2.11

2.81

5.87

No Goal

1.55

7.28

4.58

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.58

7.13

4.40

NG+Un 2.5

1.71

7.28

4.15


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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QPR vs Norwich at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between QPR and Norwich for Championship (England), which will take place on 24 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

QPR

3.92

2.75

10.9

Draw

3.80

3.60

1.5

Norwich

1.85

2.79

-18.2

Over 2.5

1.71

2.25

-14.0

Under 2.5

2.15

1.80

9.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at QPR, Draw, Under 2.5 (10.9 %, 1.5 %, 9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

QPR in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, QPR scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, QPR in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, QPR scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at QPR’s performance at home.
QPR, at home, had 10 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 34 points, 54.0% of the total available.
In these matches, QPR scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of QPR was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Apr

Swansea

A

1

0

W

U

N

17 Apr

Middlesbrough

A

2

1

W

O

G

13 Apr

Rotherham

A

1

3

L

O

G

10 Apr

Sheffield Weds

H

4

1

W

O

G

05 Apr

Nott’m Forest

A

1

3

L

O

G

02 Apr

Coventry

H

3

0

W

O

N

20 Mar

Reading

A

1

1

D

U

G

17 Mar

Millwall

H

3

2

W

O

G


Norwich in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Norwich scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Norwich in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Norwich scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Norwich’s performance as a guest.
Norwich, as a guest, had 14 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 45 points, 71.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Norwich scored in 17 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Norwich was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Apr

Watford

H

0

1

L

U

N

17 Apr

Bournemouth

H

1

3

L

O

G

10 Apr

Derby

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Apr

Huddersfield

H

7

0

W

O

N

02 Apr

Preston

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Mar

Blackburn

H

1

1

D

U

G

17 Mar

Nott’m Forest

A

2

0

W

U

N

14 Mar

Sheffield Weds

A

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the QPR is 0.356 and for the Norwich is 0.016.
The home dynamic for the QPR is -0.323 and the dynamic as a guest for the Norwich is 0.345.
The offensive ability for the QPR is 1 and for the Norwich is 0.539.
Finally, the defensive ability for the QPR is -0.227 and for the Norwich is -0.227.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, QPR and the red line for guest team, Norwich.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

QPR

31%

36%

18%

16%

Norwich

31%

35%

20%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) QPR to score 1.02 goals and Norwich to score 1.77 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.78 goals in the game and the guest team Norwich to win by 0.75 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) QPR to score 1.19 goals and Norwich to score 1.17 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.02 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.53

0-1

3.21

1

4.61

2-3

2.14

2

4.13

4+

4.57

3

4.42

Ov 1.5

1.46

4

7.09

Un 1.5

3.21

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.25

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

1.81

Gg

2.09

Ov 3.5

4.57

NoG

1.92

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-