# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Derby vs Birmingham at 24 April 2021**** Blackburn vs Huddersfield at 24 April 2021**** Watford vs Millwall at 24 April 2021**** QPR vs Norwich at 24 April 2021**

<a href=‘#Nott’m Forest’>** Nott’m Forest vs Stoke at 24 April 2021**** Middlesbrough vs Sheffield Weds at 24 April 2021**** Cardiff vs Wycombe at 24 April 2021**** Bournemouth vs Brentford at 24 April 2021**** Barnsley vs Rotherham at 24 April 2021**** Coventry vs Preston at 24 April 2021**** Reading vs Swansea at 25 April 2021**** Bristol City vs Luton at 25 April 2021**

###
Derby vs Birmingham at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Derby** and **Birmingham** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **24 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Derby |
2.44 |
2.17 |
5.1 |

Draw |
3.05 |
3.52 |
-4.4 |

Birmingham |
3.14 |
3.92 |
-6.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.52 |
2.32 |
3.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.53 |
1.76 |
-8.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Derby, Over 2.5 (5.1 %, 3.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Derby** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Derby scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Derby** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Derby scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Derby’s performance** at home**.

Derby,** at home**, had 6 wins, 6 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 38.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Derby scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 18 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 15 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Derby was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Apr |
Preston |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

16 Apr |
Blackburn |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Norwich |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
Reading |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
Luton |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Stoke |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Mar |
Brentford |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Millwall |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Birmingham** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Birmingham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Birmingham** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Birmingham** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Birmingham’s performance** as a guest**.

Birmingham,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 9 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 42.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Birmingham scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 16 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 14 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Birmingham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Apr |
Nott’m Forest |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

18 Apr |
Rotherham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Stoke |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Apr |
Brentford |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Swansea |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Watford |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

17 Mar |
Reading |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Bristol City |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

The form score for the **Derby** is **-0.704** and for the **Birmingham** is **0.468.**

The home dynamic for the **Derby** is **-0.515** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Birmingham** is **0.183.**

The offensive ability for the **Derby** is **-0.176** and for the **Birmingham** is **0.304.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Derby** is **-0.657** and for the **Birmingham** is **0.545.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Derby** and the red line for guest team, **Birmingham. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Derby |
24% |
38% |
16% |
22% |

Birmingham |
38% |
39% |
12% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Derby** to score **1.13 ** goals and **Birmingham** to score **0.95 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.08** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.18** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Derby** to score **1.35 ** goals and **Birmingham** to score **0.96 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.31** goals in the game and the home team **Derby ** to win by **0.39** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.87 |
0-1 |
3.02 |

1 |
4.18 |
2-3 |
2.20 |

2 |
4.20 |
4+ |
4.69 |

3 |
4.61 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.50 |

4 |
6.85 |
Un 1.5 |
3.02 |

5 |
23.26 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.33 |

6+ |
41.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.76 |

Gg |
2.13 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.69 |

NoG |
1.89 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.30 |
3.60 |
3.48 |

2-3 goals |
2.22 |
3.03 |
4.55 |

4+ goals |
1.90 |
5.07 |
3.61 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.11 |
3.48 |
4.20 |

Un 1.5 |
2.30 |
3.60 |
3.48 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.67 |
10.24 |
3.28 |

Un 2.5 |
2.79 |
2.35 |
4.63 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.90 |
5.07 |
3.61 |

Un 3.5 |
2.25 |
3.25 |
4.03 |

Goal-Goal |
2.70 |
2.45 |
4.52 |

No Goal |
1.84 |
5.75 |
3.53 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.84 |
7.62 |
3.08 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.05 |
5.75 |
3.41 |

####
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###
Blackburn vs Huddersfield at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Blackburn** and **Huddersfield** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **24 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Blackburn |
1.97 |
2.07 |
-2.5 |

Draw |
3.43 |
3.79 |
-2.8 |

Huddersfield |
3.88 |
3.97 |
-0.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.03 |
2.07 |
-1.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.80 |
1.94 |
-4.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at ** ( %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Blackburn** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Blackburn scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Blackburn** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Blackburn scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Blackburn’s performance** at home**.

Blackburn,** at home**, had 7 wins, 7 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Blackburn scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 13 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Blackburn was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Apr |
Sheffield Weds |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Apr |
Derby |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Cardiff |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Bournemouth |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Wycombe |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Norwich |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Mar |
Bristol City |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 Mar |
Brentford |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Huddersfield** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Huddersfield** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Huddersfield’s performance** as a guest**.

Huddersfield,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 12 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 27.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Huddersfield was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Apr |
Barnsley |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Nott’m Forest |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Apr |
Bournemouth |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Rotherham |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Apr |
Norwich |
A |
0 |
7 |
L |
O |
N |

03 Apr |
Brentford |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Mar |
Sheffield Weds |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Mar |
QPR |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Blackburn** is **-0.319** and for the **Huddersfield** is **-0.286.**

The home dynamic for the **Blackburn** is **0.091** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Huddersfield** is **-0.455.**

The offensive ability for the **Blackburn** is **-0.176** and for the **Huddersfield** is **-0.191.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Blackburn** is **-1** and for the **Huddersfield** is **-0.202.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Blackburn** and the red line for guest team, **Huddersfield. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Blackburn |
20% |
33% |
26% |
20% |

Huddersfield |
34% |
39% |
18% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Blackburn** to score **1.5 ** goals and **Huddersfield** to score **0.92 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.42** goals in the game and the home team **Blackburn ** to win by **0.58** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Blackburn** to score **1.46 ** goals and **Huddersfield** to score **1.03 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.49** goals in the game and the home team **Blackburn ** to win by **0.43** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.49 |
0-1 |
3.83 |

1 |
5.21 |
2-3 |
1.99 |

2 |
3.94 |
4+ |
4.24 |

3 |
4.02 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.41 |
Un 1.5 |
3.83 |

5 |
16.39 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.06 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.94 |

Gg |
1.90 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.24 |

NoG |
2.11 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.33 |
3.78 |
3.26 |

2-3 goals |
1.94 |
3.93 |
4.34 |

4+ goals |
2.09 |
3.52 |
4.21 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.99 |
3.79 |
4.30 |

Un 1.5 |
2.33 |
3.78 |
3.26 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.71 |
7.24 |
3.59 |

Un 2.5 |
2.56 |
2.61 |
4.40 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.09 |
3.52 |
4.21 |

Un 3.5 |
2.06 |
3.88 |
3.90 |

Goal-Goal |
2.44 |
2.70 |
4.54 |

No Goal |
1.76 |
6.86 |
3.48 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.85 |
5.96 |
3.44 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.93 |
6.86 |
3.31 |

####
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###
Watford vs Millwall at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Watford** and **Millwall** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **24 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Watford |
1.54 |
1.79 |
-9.1 |

Draw |
3.94 |
4.03 |
-0.6 |

Millwall |
6.52 |
5.15 |
4.1 |

Over 2.5 |
2.14 |
2.07 |
1.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.72 |
1.93 |
-6.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Millwall, Over 2.5 (4.1 %, 1.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Watford** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Watford scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Watford** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Watford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Watford’s performance** at home**.

Watford,** at home**, had 17 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 53 points, 84.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Watford scored in 20 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Watford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Apr |
Norwich |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Luton |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Apr |
Reading |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
Middlesbrough |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Apr |
Sheffield Weds |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Birmingham |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

16 Mar |
Rotherham |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Cardiff |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Millwall** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Millwall scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Millwall** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Millwall scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Millwall’s performance** as a guest**.

Millwall,** as a guest**, had 8 wins, 7 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 49.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Millwall scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Millwall was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Apr |
Bournemouth |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Apr |
Brentford |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Swansea |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

05 Apr |
Stoke |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
Rotherham |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Middlesbrough |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Mar |
QPR |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Derby |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Watford** is **0.467** and for the **Millwall** is **0.151.**

The home dynamic for the **Watford** is **0.535** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Millwall** is **0.055.**

The offensive ability for the **Watford** is **0.571** and for the **Millwall** is **0.157.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Watford** is **0.519** and for the **Millwall** is **0.09.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Watford** and the red line for guest team, **Millwall. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Watford |
18% |
31% |
28% |
23% |

Millwall |
39% |
41% |
12% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Watford** to score **1.71 ** goals and **Millwall** to score **0.62 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.33** goals in the game and the home team **Watford ** to win by **1.09** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Watford** to score **1.57 ** goals and **Millwall** to score **0.9 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.47** goals in the game and the home team **Watford ** to win by **0.67** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.71 |
0-1 |
3.85 |

1 |
5.21 |
2-3 |
1.95 |

2 |
3.89 |
4+ |
4.42 |

3 |
3.89 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.45 |
Un 1.5 |
3.85 |

5 |
19.23 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.93 |

Gg |
1.98 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.42 |

NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.17 |
3.82 |
3.61 |

2-3 goals |
1.64 |
4.05 |
6.95 |

4+ goals |
1.81 |
4.26 |
4.71 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.69 |
4.11 |
6.07 |

Un 1.5 |
2.17 |
3.82 |
3.61 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.46 |
9.11 |
4.83 |

Un 2.5 |
2.27 |
2.65 |
5.50 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.81 |
4.26 |
4.71 |

Un 3.5 |
1.79 |
3.97 |
5.30 |

Goal-Goal |
2.11 |
2.81 |
5.87 |

No Goal |
1.55 |
7.28 |
4.58 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.58 |
7.13 |
4.40 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.71 |
7.28 |
4.15 |

####
Go to Top

###
QPR vs Norwich at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **QPR** and **Norwich** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **24 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

QPR |
3.92 |
2.75 |
10.9 |

Draw |
3.80 |
3.60 |
1.5 |

Norwich |
1.85 |
2.79 |
-18.2 |

Over 2.5 |
1.71 |
2.25 |
-14.0 |

Under 2.5 |
2.15 |
1.80 |
9.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **QPR, Draw, Under 2.5 (10.9 %, 1.5 %, 9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**QPR** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, QPR** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **QPR** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, QPR** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at QPR’s performance** at home**.

QPR,** at home**, had 10 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 34 points, 54.0% of the total available.

In these matches, QPR scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of QPR was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Apr |
Swansea |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Middlesbrough |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Apr |
Rotherham |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Sheffield Weds |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Nott’m Forest |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
Coventry |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

20 Mar |
Reading |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Mar |
Millwall |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

**Norwich** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Norwich scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Norwich** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Norwich scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Norwich’s performance** as a guest**.

Norwich,** as a guest**, had 14 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 45 points, 71.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Norwich scored in 17 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Norwich was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Apr |
Watford |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Bournemouth |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Derby |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Apr |
Huddersfield |
H |
7 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

02 Apr |
Preston |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Mar |
Blackburn |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Mar |
Nott’m Forest |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

14 Mar |
Sheffield Weds |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **QPR** is **0.356** and for the **Norwich** is **0.016.**

The home dynamic for the **QPR** is **-0.323** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Norwich** is **0.345.**

The offensive ability for the **QPR** is **1** and for the **Norwich** is **0.539.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **QPR** is **-0.227** and for the **Norwich** is **-0.227.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **QPR** and the red line for guest team, **Norwich. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

QPR |
31% |
36% |
18% |
16% |

Norwich |
31% |
35% |
20% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **QPR** to score **1.02 ** goals and **Norwich** to score **1.77 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.78** goals in the game and the guest team **Norwich ** to win by **0.75** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **QPR** to score **1.19 ** goals and **Norwich** to score **1.17 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.36** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.02** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.53 |
0-1 |
3.21 |

1 |
4.61 |
2-3 |
2.14 |

2 |
4.13 |
4+ |
4.57 |

3 |
4.42 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.46 |

4 |
7.09 |
Un 1.5 |
3.21 |

5 |
17.86 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.25 |

6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
1.81 |

Gg |
2.09 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.57 |

NoG |
1.92 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |